Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[RationalSpeculator]

Thanks. A poor month overall, turnover $209k using bitcoin price of $98 at bitstamp (since that's the biggest one where you can withdraw, I dismissed gox for price reference).

The lowest USD turnover since January 2013, but not a disaster, still within acceptable range.

Growth oh growth where art thou?

Dooglus maybe knows?

[1714156634]

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[solex]

Growth oh growth where art thou?
Dooglus maybe knows?

I think that Dooglus could rotate his chair 30^o from the SD screen to the JD screen and easily say where all the growth is.

[Carnth]

Growth oh growth where art thou?
Dooglus maybe knows?

I think that Dooglus could rotate his chair 30^o from the SD screen to the JD screen and easily say where all the growth is.

I have to admit, I loled at that.

[dooglus]

Fri Aug  2 21:34:54 2013 <8000  249876 38db45af0d817f3c:2  1CdFGoAtwvFESFXzJCRvEaTwGd3JoErUKq BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Fri Aug  2 21:34:54 2013 <8000  249876 b528a49662090f7f:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Fri Aug  2 21:34:54 2013 <8000  249876 1ff2270785517f61:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600

Total of 24 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Aug-02 02:52pm (up to block 249877)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25958 |   23528 (0.97878) |     510 |    1920 |   26772.80 |   26331.68 |   241.57 |    441.12 |  98.352
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   201340 |  183279 (0.91509) |   17007 |    1054 |   95442.33 |   93927.54 |   160.83 |   1514.79 |  98.413
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   114343 |   97188 (0.85639) |   16298 |     857 |   93069.07 |   92141.94 |   401.54 |    927.13 |  99.004
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   121577 |   95868 (0.79369) |   24920 |     789 |   75797.74 |   73926.05 |  1188.49 |   1871.68 |  97.531
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   517015 |  378969 (0.73455) |  136952 |    1094 |  339626.23 |  331465.73 |  6173.73 |   8160.50 |  97.597
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   928147 |  462487 (0.49940) |  463603 |    2057 |  803855.79 |  782226.39 |  6524.89 |  21629.40 |  97.309
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1453070 |  708089 (0.48805) |  742779 |    2202 |  994995.00 |  974565.74 |  3003.12 |  20429.26 |  97.947
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   348943 |  127860 (0.36725) |  220299 |     784 |  606621.39 |  597735.91 |  1014.06 |   8885.47 |  98.535
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   375029 |   91322 (0.24409) |  282813 |     894 |  429790.40 |  415070.93 |  2376.82 |  14719.46 |  96.575
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   156356 |   28491 (0.18308) |  127133 |     732 |  201177.79 |  202526.10 |  3363.65 |  -1348.31 | 100.670
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   284223 |   34714 (0.12246) |  248762 |     747 |  159480.01 |  159998.61 |   462.40 |   -518.59 | 100.325
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    71818 |    6498 (0.09126) |   64709 |     611 |   20882.51 |   21517.68 |     7.86 |   -635.16 | 103.042
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    43609 |    2681 (0.06210) |   40489 |     439 |    8278.37 |    8231.00 |    31.52 |     47.36 |  99.428
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34829 |    1595 (0.04651) |   32696 |     538 |   11310.48 |   11935.96 |    49.53 |   -625.47 | 105.530
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   127581 |    3883 (0.03056) |  123188 |     510 |   86783.14 |   85719.81 |   250.76 |   1063.32 |  98.775
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29566 |     674 (0.02314) |   28454 |     438 |    8191.97 |    8741.46 |    15.40 |   -549.48 | 106.708
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   197825 |    3009 (0.01527) |  194047 |     769 |   58881.30 |   54480.96 |    31.38 |   4400.34 |  92.527
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43764 |     338 (0.00787) |   42594 |     832 |    8605.84 |    7010.29 |    10.45 |   1595.55 |  81.460
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29565 |     119 (0.00409) |   28983 |     463 |    6171.27 |    8717.46 |    18.39 |  -2546.19 | 141.259
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    25918 |      46 (0.00181) |   25317 |     555 |    2507.12 |    1613.53 |    57.57 |    893.59 |  64.358
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    35148 |      36 (0.00104) |   34523 |     589 |    2340.25 |    1751.16 |   117.25 |    589.09 |  74.828
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    39185 |      18 (0.00047) |   38684 |     483 |    1846.24 |    1931.81 |     1.68 |    -85.57 | 104.635
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    30465 |       6 (0.00020) |   29948 |     511 |    1008.07 |     667.24 |    22.28 |    340.83 |  66.190
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    31100 |       5 (0.00016) |   30523 |     572 |     713.76 |     434.43 |    15.85 |    279.33 |  60.865
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16302 |       2 (0.00013) |   15736 |     564 |     244.60 |     320.56 |    19.06 |    -75.95 | 131.050
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14331 |       0 (0.00000) |   13707 |     624 |     204.46 |       0.61 |    32.11 |    203.84 |   0.301
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   175536 |       4 (0.00002) |  172399 |    3133 |    2310.86 |    4486.14 |   205.73 |  -2175.28 | 194.133
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5328196 | 2189515           | 3114255 |   24426 |  999892.95 |  980835.25 |   390.58 |  19057.69 |  98.094
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   144347 |   61194           |   82818 |     335 | 3047015.99 | 2986641.59 | 25407.47 |  60374.40 |  98.019
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  5472543 | 2250709           | 3197073 |   24761 | 4046908.95 | 3967476.84 | 25798.05 |  79432.10 |  98.037
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      79432.10509565 BTC (1.963%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4757.63777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       74674.46732065 BTC (1.845%)
Pending Liabilities:          -26.16408998 BTC
Final SD Profit:            74700.63141063 BTC (1.846%)
Profit This Month:           1089.17786380 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 18574794  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 10046036  (54.1%)
Blockchain MB:   8185.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4151.8  (50.7%)

[deepceleron]

SD Profit before fees:      78338.14457765 BTC (1.940%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4741.45937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       73596.68520265 BTC (1.823%)
Pending Liabilities:           -4.63054380 BTC
Final SD Profit:            73601.31574645 BTC (1.823%)
Profit This Month:          -3449.13326689 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 18470736  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 10017229  (54.2%)
Blockchain MB:   8139.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4139.9  (50.9%)

SD Profit before fees:      79432.10509565 BTC (1.963%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4757.63777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       74674.46732065 BTC (1.845%)
Pending Liabilities:          -26.16408998 BTC
Final SD Profit:            74700.63141063 BTC (1.846%)
Profit This Month:           1089.17786380 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 18574794  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 10046036  (54.1%)
Blockchain MB:   8185.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4151.8  (50.7%)

Somebody's a big loser... or did a big win just roll out of the "this month" period?

[dooglus]

Somebody's a big loser... or did a big win just roll out of the "this month" period?

It's a new month...  The -3k from last month isn't considered in the profits from 'this month'.

Edit: ah.  I didn't update the start position on the graph, so it shows last month too.  Next graph will fix that.

[dooglus]

For the first time in 6 months or so the actual profit has fallen below the expected profit:

Fri Aug  2 22:00:23 2013 <2000  249879 64479531e6b10500:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Fri Aug  2 22:00:23 2013 <8000  249879 4c25b2ebf96218c5:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Fri Aug  2 22:17:38 2013 <8000  249881 2291621e4aec4bc2:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Fri Aug  2 22:17:38 2013 <8000  249881 7dd823c9f952c211:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Fri Aug  2 22:24:41 2013 <3000  249882 d6a8c1606d207050:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    10.00000000 WIN    203.26045333
Fri Aug  2 22:24:41 2013 <2000  249882 9bc62d6492914cce:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Fri Aug  2 23:13:19 2013 <2000  249888 3c2c2383423b67ca:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Sat Aug  3 00:18:36 2013 <8000  249894 e5bd298c78b5b041:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Sat Aug  3 00:47:06 2013 <2000  249898 94c98a54953fe74a:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Sat Aug  3 01:20:21 2013 <2000  249901 8265d0e515ed10b7:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    12.00000000 WIN    371.83881600
Sat Aug  3 01:32:53 2013 <2000  249903 0858e6e9cbd390ef:0  14VZsCa5mJeoDqGKHsssKiyy6fQF3Kt7JC BET    16.00000000 WIN    495.78508800
Sat Aug  3 02:07:50 2013 <2000  249907 a047ea9e86cbc7fe:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Sat Aug  3 02:07:50 2013 <8000  249907 a047ea9e86cbc7fe:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Sat Aug  3 02:21:07 2013 <8000  249910 97fde91e84861ced:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Sat Aug  3 02:43:06 2013 <12000 249914 97fde91e84861ced:1  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    25.00000000 WIN    108.38153333
Sat Aug  3 02:45:05 2013 <16000 249915 a047ea9e86cbc7fe:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    34.00000000 WIN    102.09166400
Sat Aug  3 05:30:27 2013 <2000  249935 1f904ef45a9cc20d:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Sat Aug  3 05:30:27 2013 <2000  249935 3c3bf53f24545a4a:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Sat Aug  3 07:25:49 2013 <8000  249949 e99538384b9bd1dd:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Sat Aug  3 08:26:26 2013 <8000  249954 08d0d0243d7b4ecc:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Sat Aug  3 08:52:40 2013 <16000 249959 092107b244297c54:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    39.00000000 WIN    117.10514400
Sat Aug  3 10:49:03 2013 <2000  249983 84f202912be654ce:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Sat Aug  3 10:51:55 2013 <16000 249984 19695bdd7f7b6db6:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    38.00000000 WIN    114.10244800
Sat Aug  3 23:46:05 2013 <8000  250062 c5ed0b711c3ea495:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000

Total of 22 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Aug-03 06:29pm (up to block 250073)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25980 |   23548 (0.97880) |     510 |    1922 |   26773.31 |   26332.18 |   241.57 |    441.12 |  98.352
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   201682 |  183598 (0.91512) |   17029 |    1055 |   95462.01 |   93947.00 |   160.83 |   1515.00 |  98.413
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   114638 |   97451 (0.85648) |   16330 |     857 |   93100.05 |   92175.39 |   401.54 |    924.65 |  99.007
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   121704 |   95974 (0.79374) |   24940 |     790 |   75833.03 |   73961.99 |  1188.49 |   1871.04 |  97.533
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   517536 |  379352 (0.73455) |  137087 |    1097 |  339677.67 |  331516.47 |  6173.74 |   8161.20 |  97.597
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   930261 |  463496 (0.49935) |  464705 |    2060 |  804220.41 |  782523.52 |  6524.91 |  21696.89 |  97.302
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1454803 |  708903 (0.48802) |  743695 |    2205 |  995193.80 |  974778.24 |  3003.12 |  20415.56 |  97.949
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   350146 |  128290 (0.36721) |  221071 |     785 |  606745.60 |  597847.47 |  1014.07 |   8898.13 |  98.533
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   376208 |   91614 (0.24410) |  283699 |     895 |  431688.14 |  417272.49 |  2376.82 |  14415.64 |  96.661
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   156969 |   28615 (0.18315) |  127622 |     732 |  202893.98 |  204505.90 |  3363.65 |  -1611.92 | 100.794
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   284772 |   34783 (0.12247) |  249239 |     750 |  161002.49 |  161584.67 |   462.41 |   -582.18 | 100.362
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    71902 |    6513 (0.09136) |   64778 |     611 |   20930.67 |   21523.38 |     7.86 |   -592.71 | 102.832
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    43672 |    2683 (0.06206) |   40550 |     439 |    8279.11 |    8231.33 |    31.52 |     47.78 |  99.423
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34862 |    1598 (0.04656) |   32726 |     538 |   11336.90 |   12149.94 |    49.53 |   -813.03 | 107.172
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   127962 |    3899 (0.03059) |  123551 |     512 |   88234.12 |   89736.09 |   250.77 |  -1501.96 | 101.702
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29585 |     674 (0.02312) |   28473 |     438 |    8192.50 |    8741.46 |    15.40 |   -548.95 | 106.701
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   198083 |    3012 (0.01527) |  194301 |     770 |   58936.85 |   54520.26 |    31.38 |   4416.59 |  92.506
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43778 |     338 (0.00787) |   42607 |     833 |    8606.78 |    7010.30 |    10.45 |   1596.48 |  81.451
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29575 |     119 (0.00409) |   28993 |     463 |    6174.43 |    8717.48 |    18.39 |  -2543.05 | 141.187
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    25923 |      46 (0.00181) |   25322 |     555 |    2507.95 |    1613.53 |    57.57 |    894.41 |  64.337
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    35234 |      36 (0.00104) |   34609 |     589 |    2341.19 |    1751.17 |   117.25 |    590.02 |  74.798
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    39247 |      18 (0.00046) |   38745 |     484 |    1846.85 |    1931.82 |     1.68 |    -84.97 | 104.601
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    30474 |       6 (0.00020) |   29957 |     511 |    1008.66 |     667.24 |    22.28 |    341.41 |  66.152
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    31108 |       5 (0.00016) |   30531 |     572 |     713.84 |     434.43 |    15.85 |    279.41 |  60.858
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16311 |       2 (0.00013) |   15745 |     564 |     244.78 |     320.56 |    19.06 |    -75.77 | 130.954
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14342 |       0 (0.00000) |   13717 |     625 |     204.57 |       0.61 |    32.12 |    203.95 |   0.301
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   176730 |       4 (0.00002) |  173574 |    3152 |    2326.07 |    4486.22 |   206.48 |  -2160.15 | 192.867
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5338726 | 2193313           | 3120944 |   24469 | 1000951.90 |  981844.55 |   391.41 |  19107.35 |  98.091
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   144761 |   61264           |   83162 |     335 | 3053523.96 | 2996436.70 | 25407.47 |  57087.26 |  98.130
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  5483487 | 2254577           | 3204106 |   24804 | 4054475.87 | 3978281.25 | 25798.89 |  76194.61 |  98.121
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      76194.61891604 BTC (1.879%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4769.31897500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71425.29994104 BTC (1.762%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.25322361 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71425.55316465 BTC (1.762%)
Profit This Month:          -2185.90038218 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 18628490  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 10066282  (54.0%)
Blockchain MB:   8208.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4160.2  (50.7%)

[wtfvanity]

For the first time in 6 months or so the actual profit has fallen below the expected profit:

Fri Aug  2 22:00:23 2013 <2000  249879 64479531e6b10500:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Fri Aug  2 22:00:23 2013 <8000  249879 4c25b2ebf96218c5:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Fri Aug  2 22:17:38 2013 <8000  249881 2291621e4aec4bc2:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Fri Aug  2 22:17:38 2013 <8000  249881 7dd823c9f952c211:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Fri Aug  2 22:24:41 2013 <3000  249882 d6a8c1606d207050:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    10.00000000 WIN    203.26045333
Fri Aug  2 22:24:41 2013 <2000  249882 9bc62d6492914cce:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Fri Aug  2 23:13:19 2013 <2000  249888 3c2c2383423b67ca:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Sat Aug  3 00:18:36 2013 <8000  249894 e5bd298c78b5b041:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Sat Aug  3 00:47:06 2013 <2000  249898 94c98a54953fe74a:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Sat Aug  3 01:20:21 2013 <2000  249901 8265d0e515ed10b7:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    12.00000000 WIN    371.83881600
Sat Aug  3 01:32:53 2013 <2000  249903 0858e6e9cbd390ef:0  14VZsCa5mJeoDqGKHsssKiyy6fQF3Kt7JC BET    16.00000000 WIN    495.78508800
Sat Aug  3 02:07:50 2013 <2000  249907 a047ea9e86cbc7fe:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Sat Aug  3 02:07:50 2013 <8000  249907 a047ea9e86cbc7fe:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Sat Aug  3 02:21:07 2013 <8000  249910 97fde91e84861ced:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Sat Aug  3 02:43:06 2013 <12000 249914 97fde91e84861ced:1  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    25.00000000 WIN    108.38153333
Sat Aug  3 02:45:05 2013 <16000 249915 a047ea9e86cbc7fe:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    34.00000000 WIN    102.09166400
Sat Aug  3 05:30:27 2013 <2000  249935 1f904ef45a9cc20d:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Sat Aug  3 05:30:27 2013 <2000  249935 3c3bf53f24545a4a:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Sat Aug  3 07:25:49 2013 <8000  249949 e99538384b9bd1dd:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Sat Aug  3 08:26:26 2013 <8000  249954 08d0d0243d7b4ecc:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Sat Aug  3 08:52:40 2013 <16000 249959 092107b244297c54:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    39.00000000 WIN    117.10514400
Sat Aug  3 10:49:03 2013 <2000  249983 84f202912be654ce:3  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Sat Aug  3 10:51:55 2013 <16000 249984 19695bdd7f7b6db6:0  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    38.00000000 WIN    114.10244800
Sat Aug  3 23:46:05 2013 <8000  250062 c5ed0b711c3ea495:2  1GY33AU9yti1VQbJfTEyR8dQwcaBSjwgpQ BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000

Total of 22 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Aug-03 06:29pm (up to block 250073)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25980 |   23548 (0.97880) |     510 |    1922 |   26773.31 |   26332.18 |   241.57 |    441.12 |  98.352
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   201682 |  183598 (0.91512) |   17029 |    1055 |   95462.01 |   93947.00 |   160.83 |   1515.00 |  98.413
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   114638 |   97451 (0.85648) |   16330 |     857 |   93100.05 |   92175.39 |   401.54 |    924.65 |  99.007
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   121704 |   95974 (0.79374) |   24940 |     790 |   75833.03 |   73961.99 |  1188.49 |   1871.04 |  97.533
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   517536 |  379352 (0.73455) |  137087 |    1097 |  339677.67 |  331516.47 |  6173.74 |   8161.20 |  97.597
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   930261 |  463496 (0.49935) |  464705 |    2060 |  804220.41 |  782523.52 |  6524.91 |  21696.89 |  97.302
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1454803 |  708903 (0.48802) |  743695 |    2205 |  995193.80 |  974778.24 |  3003.12 |  20415.56 |  97.949
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   350146 |  128290 (0.36721) |  221071 |     785 |  606745.60 |  597847.47 |  1014.07 |   8898.13 |  98.533
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   376208 |   91614 (0.24410) |  283699 |     895 |  431688.14 |  417272.49 |  2376.82 |  14415.64 |  96.661
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   156969 |   28615 (0.18315) |  127622 |     732 |  202893.98 |  204505.90 |  3363.65 |  -1611.92 | 100.794
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   284772 |   34783 (0.12247) |  249239 |     750 |  161002.49 |  161584.67 |   462.41 |   -582.18 | 100.362
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    71902 |    6513 (0.09136) |   64778 |     611 |   20930.67 |   21523.38 |     7.86 |   -592.71 | 102.832
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    43672 |    2683 (0.06206) |   40550 |     439 |    8279.11 |    8231.33 |    31.52 |     47.78 |  99.423
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34862 |    1598 (0.04656) |   32726 |     538 |   11336.90 |   12149.94 |    49.53 |   -813.03 | 107.172
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   127962 |    3899 (0.03059) |  123551 |     512 |   88234.12 |   89736.09 |   250.77 |  -1501.96 | 101.702
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29585 |     674 (0.02312) |   28473 |     438 |    8192.50 |    8741.46 |    15.40 |   -548.95 | 106.701
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   198083 |    3012 (0.01527) |  194301 |     770 |   58936.85 |   54520.26 |    31.38 |   4416.59 |  92.506
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43778 |     338 (0.00787) |   42607 |     833 |    8606.78 |    7010.30 |    10.45 |   1596.48 |  81.451
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29575 |     119 (0.00409) |   28993 |     463 |    6174.43 |    8717.48 |    18.39 |  -2543.05 | 141.187
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    25923 |      46 (0.00181) |   25322 |     555 |    2507.95 |    1613.53 |    57.57 |    894.41 |  64.337
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    35234 |      36 (0.00104) |   34609 |     589 |    2341.19 |    1751.17 |   117.25 |    590.02 |  74.798
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    39247 |      18 (0.00046) |   38745 |     484 |    1846.85 |    1931.82 |     1.68 |    -84.97 | 104.601
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    30474 |       6 (0.00020) |   29957 |     511 |    1008.66 |     667.24 |    22.28 |    341.41 |  66.152
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    31108 |       5 (0.00016) |   30531 |     572 |     713.84 |     434.43 |    15.85 |    279.41 |  60.858
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16311 |       2 (0.00013) |   15745 |     564 |     244.78 |     320.56 |    19.06 |    -75.77 | 130.954
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14342 |       0 (0.00000) |   13717 |     625 |     204.57 |       0.61 |    32.12 |    203.95 |   0.301
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   176730 |       4 (0.00002) |  173574 |    3152 |    2326.07 |    4486.22 |   206.48 |  -2160.15 | 192.867
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5338726 | 2193313           | 3120944 |   24469 | 1000951.90 |  981844.55 |   391.41 |  19107.35 |  98.091
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   144761 |   61264           |   83162 |     335 | 3053523.96 | 2996436.70 | 25407.47 |  57087.26 |  98.130
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  5483487 | 2254577           | 3204106 |   24804 | 4054475.87 | 3978281.25 | 25798.89 |  76194.61 |  98.121
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      76194.61891604 BTC (1.879%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4769.31897500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71425.29994104 BTC (1.762%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.25322361 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71425.55316465 BTC (1.762%)
Profit This Month:          -2185.90038218 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 18628490  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 10066282  (54.0%)
Blockchain MB:   8208.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4160.2  (50.7%)

! wow

[herzmeister]

good timing

[Zaih]

A bit weird that  the moment SD is sold the profits start plummeting Poor new owners.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

A bit weird that  the moment SD is sold the profits start plummeting Poor new owners.

*tinfoil hat theory on previous management using secrets they know (as it wasn't changed) to cheat*

[nimda]

A bit weird that  the moment SD is sold the profits start plummeting Poor new owners.

*tinfoil hat theory on previous management using secrets they know (as it wasn't changed) to cheat*

*other tinfoil hat theory that shareowner betting to prop up prices has ceased*

[BCB]

Anonymous buyer my ass!  Eric paid off the shareholders, threw them a bone to keep them off his back and kept the rest of the profits.  Moving to Panama would not protect him from prosecution and he's smart enough to know that.

If/when this anonymous buyer emerges or SD return in another form I'd gladly apologize.

Unfortunately since the beginning of bitcoin time Bitcoiner have proven to be an awfully gullible bunch.

 

[Herbert]

Anonymous buyer my ass!  Eric paid off the shareholders, threw them a bone to keep them off his back and kept the rest of the profits.  Moving to Panama would not protect him from prosecution and he's smart enough to know that.

If/when this anonymous buyer emerges or SD return in another form I'd gladly apologize.

Thanks, exactly what I am thinking since the sell announcement.

[Zaih]

Why on Earth would Eric want to buy back the shares he issued? Especially at the insanely increased prices he bought them back at.

And why does he need them off his back? He didn't owe them anything, he was producing them respectable dividends, he just chose not to pay as much attention as one would expect.

[BCB]

This is Bitcoin. I don't believe anything until I see 6 confirmations.

[dooglus]

It's been a long time, but here's an update:

Mon Aug 26 04:07:48 2013 <32768 254264 c5287c8796918284:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   131.46000000 WIN    125.80722000
Mon Aug 26 19:25:29 2013 <32768 254365 dca35c6179e90d64:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Mon Aug 26 19:45:49 2013 <32768 254371 e4178ca8cd09eaa6:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   200.00000000 LOSE  -199.00000000
Mon Aug 26 21:23:31 2013 <32768 254383 5764a065ef947874:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Tue Aug 27 00:27:47 2013 <32768 254402 15fb7eb64cf0c52d:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Tue Aug 27 03:34:07 2013 <32768 254420 92e57d665e66e980:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Tue Aug 27 03:34:07 2013 <2000  254420 a34963f8c38adfb6:2  18JLSmkMaY1L95dShVBr83wzrrXRy2ZpGX BET    19.00000000 WIN    588.74479200
Tue Aug 27 03:47:20 2013 <12000 254422 5477496ff9ced2a4:1  18JLSmkMaY1L95dShVBr83wzrrXRy2ZpGX BET    24.00000000 WIN    104.04627200
Tue Aug 27 03:55:20 2013 <32768 254423 bd8356b5b0053bc4:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000
Tue Aug 27 04:11:47 2013 <32768 254427 1dee67cc775af395:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000
Tue Aug 27 04:11:47 2013 <32768 254427 1685b540ed2ba6c1:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   134.20000000 WIN    128.42940000
Tue Aug 27 04:29:43 2013 <32768 254429 7b813fe8e9913329:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000
Tue Aug 27 04:29:43 2013 <32768 254429 b005130bc9924105:0  1KM1CBcjPrrfApqXVx8tVFfT2EFNiUAXTs BET   113.38000000 LOSE  -112.81310000
Tue Aug 27 11:21:10 2013 <8000  254472 65c96449e752f11d:2  1B8qNNwdZph3gU3MgoTdUi2fMVjJpfgma6 BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Tue Aug 27 12:49:25 2013 <2000  254484 d53b35e5bb29b2a3:3  1B8qNNwdZph3gU3MgoTdUi2fMVjJpfgma6 BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
Tue Aug 27 13:26:52 2013 <2000  254487 d57b3a82bd5de8fb:2  1B8qNNwdZph3gU3MgoTdUi2fMVjJpfgma6 BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
Tue Aug 27 15:22:50 2013 <12000 254508 0190ff926db4f76b:5  1CdFGoAtwvFESFXzJCRvEaTwGd3JoErUKq BET    25.00000000 WIN    108.38153333
Tue Aug 27 18:12:38 2013 <16000 254528 41e1a61324169071:0  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    35.00000000 WIN    105.09436000
Tue Aug 27 18:12:38 2013 <12000 254528 41e1a61324169071:1  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    28.00000000 WIN    121.38731733
Tue Aug 27 18:26:35 2013 <12000 254531 d5ded3ce5f6736bc:1  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    35.00000000 WIN    151.73414666
Tue Aug 27 19:50:27 2013 <2000  254540 e9361f4ad2aff529:3  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    14.00000000 WIN    433.81195200
Tue Aug 27 20:03:02 2013 <16000 254541 88de34f22677b6b4:0  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    36.00000000 WIN    108.09705600
Tue Aug 27 23:13:00 2013 <2000  254561 2d8e32e620e68c48:2  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
Tue Aug 27 23:13:00 2013 <2000  254561 75bf44b676457439:2  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
Wed Aug 28 02:16:19 2013 <32768 254582 020036aa8563a5fa:0  1BNxYy3gXFzBdrPjA44WTHFrmodMwkkxY8 BET   100.00000000 WIN     95.70000000
Wed Aug 28 03:07:17 2013 <32768 254587 3dafc8d5a6f30d78:0  1BNxYy3gXFzBdrPjA44WTHFrmodMwkkxY8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Wed Aug 28 03:33:52 2013 <32768 254590 011c05f11d06941d:0  1BNxYy3gXFzBdrPjA44WTHFrmodMwkkxY8 BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000
Wed Aug 28 03:51:25 2013 <8000  254593 4032072ca3f3d6f3:1  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Wed Aug 28 03:51:25 2013 <12000 254593 4032072ca3f3d6f3:0  19EvJoQyBadCNaFcJhDVXyELdHwrn1s9sX BET    25.00000000 WIN    108.38153333
Wed Aug 28 23:24:10 2013 <32768 254739 b9324d6714afc0fe:0  1BNxYy3gXFzBdrPjA44WTHFrmodMwkkxY8 BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000

Total of 61 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Aug-28 08:55pm (up to block 254767)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    26759 |   24287 (0.97872) |     528 |    1944 |   26877.83 |   26435.75 |   241.66 |    442.08 |  98.355
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   211403 |  192463 (0.91504) |   17869 |    1071 |  100947.44 |   99384.01 |   160.89 |   1563.42 |  98.451
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   119718 |  101820 (0.85666) |   17037 |     861 |   95064.58 |   94136.81 |   401.58 |    927.77 |  99.024
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   125244 |   98791 (0.79390) |   25647 |     806 |   76950.09 |   75126.59 |  1188.56 |   1823.49 |  97.630
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   531026 |  389207 (0.73448) |  140698 |    1121 |  342705.02 |  334502.86 |  6173.83 |   8202.15 |  97.607
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   966531 |  481682 (0.49945) |  482735 |    2114 |  819386.84 |  796690.25 | 10154.08 |  22696.58 |  97.230
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1510979 |  736555 (0.48819) |  772189 |    2235 | 1003035.83 |  982551.67 |  3178.20 |  20484.15 |  97.958
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   359205 |  131636 (0.36728) |  226772 |     797 |  607542.88 |  598739.06 |  1038.11 |   8803.82 |  98.551
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   389714 |   94897 (0.24409) |  293887 |     930 |  454136.14 |  438766.20 |  2750.87 |  15369.93 |  96.616
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   166471 |   30366 (0.18325) |  135343 |     762 |  225227.81 |  226292.29 |  3759.67 |  -1064.47 | 100.473
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   299610 |   36598 (0.12248) |  262206 |     806 |  183146.12 |  184288.84 |  1021.49 |  -1142.72 | 100.624
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    74312 |    6714 (0.09111) |   66977 |     621 |   26072.06 |   26798.57 |    21.90 |   -726.51 | 102.787
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    51578 |    3178 (0.06215) |   47960 |     440 |    8375.78 |    8332.44 |    31.53 |     43.33 |  99.483
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    35819 |    1642 (0.04654) |   33637 |     540 |   11685.08 |   12367.28 |    53.54 |   -682.19 | 105.838
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   138697 |    4221 (0.03056) |  133917 |     559 |  104893.98 |  106440.77 |   483.80 |  -1546.78 | 101.475
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    30434 |     691 (0.02304) |   29305 |     438 |    8239.30 |    8777.36 |    15.40 |   -538.05 | 106.530
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   210294 |    3189 (0.01522) |  206330 |     775 |   60239.65 |   55400.45 |    43.38 |   4839.19 |  91.967
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    44460 |     340 (0.00780) |   43270 |     850 |    8682.84 |    7013.18 |    10.51 |   1669.66 |  80.771
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    30248 |     125 (0.00420) |   29646 |     477 |    6221.84 |    8855.64 |    18.41 |  -2633.79 | 142.331
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    27494 |      50 (0.00186) |   26882 |     562 |    2617.74 |    1788.98 |    57.59 |    828.75 |  68.341
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    37172 |      36 (0.00098) |   36545 |     591 |    2438.51 |    1751.66 |   117.26 |    686.85 |  71.833
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    44354 |      18 (0.00041) |   43851 |     485 |    2006.44 |    1932.62 |     1.69 |     73.81 |  96.321
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    33333 |       7 (0.00021) |   32813 |     513 |    1080.49 |     731.57 |    22.28 |    348.92 |  67.707
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    34027 |       5 (0.00015) |   33449 |     573 |     759.83 |     434.66 |    18.85 |    325.16 |  57.205
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16425 |       2 (0.00013) |   15854 |     569 |     247.80 |     320.57 |    19.47 |    -72.77 | 129.366
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14623 |       0 (0.00000) |   13991 |     632 |     208.17 |       0.63 |    32.62 |    207.53 |   0.305
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   182689 |       4 (0.00002) |  179354 |    3331 |    2408.32 |    4486.65 |   210.63 |  -2078.33 | 186.298
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5560614 | 2275760           | 3259924 |   24930 | 1024479.11 | 1004540.68 |   426.47 |  19938.43 |  98.054
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   152005 |   62764           |   88768 |     473 | 3156719.42 | 3097806.81 | 30801.47 |  58912.61 |  98.134
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                                |  5712619 | 2338524           | 3348692 |   25403 | 4181198.54 | 4102347.49 | 31227.94 |  78851.04 |  98.114
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SD Profit before fees:      78851.04656352 BTC (1.886%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        5010.70417500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       73840.34238852 BTC (1.766%)
Pending Liabilities:          -72.16174887 BTC
Final SD Profit:            73912.50413739 BTC (1.768%)
Profit This Month:            301.05059056 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 20031367  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 10472466  (52.3%)
Blockchain MB:   8820.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4332.5  (49.1%)

[RationalSpeculator]

Thanks Dooglus

Very interesting. SD has been unlucky but turnover was good this month of August with 143k btc (up until 28th), up from 110k btc last month. At a current value of $118 per btc (bitstamp) expected profit for this month is $344k, up considerably compared to last month where it was only $209k (using $98 as btc value). But still not beating the top months that were $460k (January 2013) and $430k (May 2013). Interesting to see no collapse is happening and a chance for actual growth is again opening up.

Comparing this to JD. For the month of August JD turnover was 205k (up until 27th), expected profit $240k. Last month of July turnover was a staggering 685k btc and expected profit $671k. This means a drop of -72% month to month. Expected profit at Satoshi Dice also collapsed after it's all time high month in January but only by 50% (from $460k to $220k).  

It remains to be seen whether JD will succeed where SD failed: after setting a great month, continuing to grow in expected USD profit over time.


(Am I doing this analyses correct? Does expected profit even matter? If gamblers gamble until they lose, than expected profit will go up or down depending on luck, but actual profit will just be the same. Maybe it is better to forget about expected profit and just look at actual profit?)

[integrity42]

Any updates coming?

[dooglus]

Any updates coming?

The last I heard, SatoshiDice had followed Just-Dice.com's lead (just kidding, PrimeDice.com and CoinRoll.it!) and taken their betting off-chain.

So it's no longer possible to see how well they're doing.