You and me like to think in terms of BTC only, but unfortunately the whole world doesn't. I've already seen this scenario play out twice now. Once in the price jump from the 10's to the hundreds in March, then again from the hundreds to the thousands.
I hear you, and I basically agree, however that jump applies to everything (including the donations we receive and or / have received if we haven't spent them.)
The evil fiat price
rises and the whole world notices.
A bunch of new miner come online to take advantage of the profit to be made from the higher BTC price.
Existing miners get either squeezed out or must re-invest to keep up the mining arms-race to stay profitable, but are never able to mine the same amount of coins as they were in the past.
We are in a risky situation. If we get another 10 bagger in the next 6-12 months, the 315 Bitcoins owing will be millions in fiat. What's the seat price going to do when NastyFanClub owes 1.6 million in Bitcoins?
What do I know? Honestly, I really don't know much, so these are just my own thoughts on the topic and I'm only sharing because I enjoy speculating and hearing others opinions / observations etc.
Personally, I don't think that will affect it too much
(some emotions will likely come into play so I think it will affect prices some). The higher the fiat price of BTC means that the donations are worth that much more so it really shouldn't
matter very much at all. Also, because the seat price is dictated primarily by current holders of seats who probably think in terms of BTC being BTC like you and me that won't affect them too much. (It hasn't affected me to date and I bought in late in the game (at higher seat prices))
Of course if no-one is willing to buy then the current owners are likely to reduce the price by however badly they want / need to liquidate their seats. And that, I think is where the main impact would be..
So new, potential investors may be scared away from a debt of 1.6 million in BTC, but if they look at the donation page and see that they are getting a good, per-share donation (times that same fiat price) then they should feel much better - no?
NastyFan seat fair price has really only changed for the following reasons as far as I can gather:
- Network difficulty going through the roof = tends to cause seat price to drop (donations less and less)
- Equipment delivered = tends to cause seat price to jump (donations become more)
- Increase in BTC to fiat prices - should cause the seat price to rise as the donations would now be worth more fiat
- People who didn't like the BFL order want to liquidate and are willing to accept less than they really think it's worth - Seat price drop as much as the owners are desparate to liquidate
- Other fans just wanting / needing to liquidate for who knows, some extra BTC or fiat over the holidays - Seat price drop as much as the owners are desparate to liquidate
- The new silver coins - should cause the seat price to go up some
- The pool incentives - tend to cause seat prices to go up some
- All of the other tricks OG Nasty and Nonnakip have up their sleeves - tend to cause seat prices to go up some
(I'm curious to see what others think that I've missed on the above list)
However, (and this is only speculation) I have a strong feeling that most of the Nasty Fans are more long term owners and tend to think in terms of BTC being BTC like you and me and are not all that willing to part with their seats for a while.
Either way, I want to see the debt paid off. I think that would be best for NastyFans in the short term as well as the long term.
I for one would not have loaned the 5 BTC that I did in fiat because I believe in BTC and "knew" that the BTC, fiat value would increase. My loan didn't include any interest - only 2 .1BTC
tips so .2BTC
. And I'm quite happy with that deal. I mean if BTC starts going for $20,000 USD then that means I got $4,000 USD for helping out and for "saving" my 5 btc so that I didn't spend or invest somewhere else.
But in order to get lenders interested in loaning fiat, then some other deal would have to be struck - interest or something else. And whatever that deal would be, then it's likely to be less economically beneficial to NastyFans than straight up fiat loan (w / no interest).