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1321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2021, 07:46:13 PM
Such down,
So dip,
Pray to Karhu and weep.

I'm praying that my lowest buy order at $44.500 gets filled today.
All the higher ones were already hit, catching the knife  Grin
1322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 09:35:31 PM
snip
Taken together with getting cash via borrowing against your satoshis makes the tax bill less relevant.

Thoughts?

I have been trying to learn about borrowing against my satoshis. Someday in the future I hope to have that problem.    I know that "not your keys, not your coin".  What is a good  place to inquire? I've read about Block-fi, but not many others.

How much BTC one would need to borrow against?
The yield is paid in Satoshis or fiat?
1323  Other / Off-topic / Re: [WO/Hat-Gang Only - MODERATED] The fucking COVID vax thread (No hat? Fuck off!) on: December 12, 2021, 08:11:41 PM
Harvard Study Explodes Myths About ‘Vaccines’ Stopping the Spread – But It’s Even Worse Than That
https://beckernews.com/harvard-study-explodes-myths-about-vaccines-stopping-the-spread-but-its-even-worse-than-that-43431/

Quote
A Harvard study of 68 nations and 2,947 counties in the United States published in the European Journal of Epidemiology is shattering the argument that the mRNA therapeutic drugs being marketed as “vaccines” do anything significantly to stop the spread of Covid-19.

It’s even worse than that. As Becker News suggested in September, there is a positive correlation between a nation’s vaccination levels and the “case” rates being reported. The scientific findings are a crushing blow to the argument that the vaccines have a “public health” purpose and that vaccine mandates are justified.

The study also makes an interesting point about counties with extremely high vaccination rates: “Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as ‘High’ Transmission counties.”

Well duh, as if we can't deduce that ourselves...

Oh, nice, one of the studies my government never uses to reason the vaccine mandate (in evaluation currently).
A vaccine mandate to "end the pandemic". How's that?
Surprisingly, in a country with 67% vaccincation rate, two thirds of the public support this madness.
I'm glad that i'm in a situation to be able to afford the projected fine, $250 per month, but i could use the money for better things (like Bitcoin).
Government in March 2021: "There will be no vaccine mandate in our country, ever."
Seriously, WTF?!
1324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 07:56:23 PM
I know you guys are much familiar with F words. Don't put these words in my mouth.
Don't force me to talk with you that way.

Congratulations !!!

Part of my ignore list. Fuck off!!

That was fast  Shocked

No place like WO.
I truly love this thread!

@Jojo: Never came across somebody saying so much without using a word.  Cool
1325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 12, 2021, 07:40:23 PM
Fucking retards. Good grief.

That's what you get in the countryside.
Trust me, i know what i'm talking about  Grin

But there are some beautiful sides to it as well...
Say hello to the moon  Cool



(Drone test, low light RAW edit, definitely need a bigger sensor on the next one).



(Low light sunset, showing off the limits of smartphone-type imaging sensors).

Only got these two shots today, besides a 180° panorama shot, but i'll keep it to private eyes because of OpSec.
The place was already getting fucking cold and the wind was increasing, tried to avoid iced rotor blades at all cost.
1326  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: December 12, 2021, 02:11:03 PM
Der LN von Bitstamp ist eher sowas wie ein Bekenntnis zum Lightning Netzwerk. Stellen halt Liquidity zur Verfügung. Mit dem Exchange hat das operativ nichts zu tun.
Lightning ist in gewisser Weise auch entbehrlich, weil auf den Exchanges selbst ja eh offchain gehandelt wird. Für Ein-/Auszahlungen wär's aber allemal praktisch, nur wären dann wohl auch weit mehr als "nur" 1000BTC (um mit der Prestige-LN-Node von Bitstamp zu vergleichen) auf dem Knoten nötig...

Bitstamp's Knoten hat eine Kapazität von "nur" 25,5 BTC wobei auch schwer zu sagen ist wieviel davon tatsächlich von Bitstamp stammt und wieviel davon Incoming Capacity ist.

Die beiden Bitfinex Knoten die auch tatsächlich operativ eingesetzt werden haben jeweils ~250 BTC Kapazität (Incoming + Outgoing), dh. mit einer Kapazität von 1000 BTC (Kapazität -- nicht Eigenkapital!) sollte man auch als größerer Exchange relativ weit kommen.

Tatsächlich dürfte es halt mehr eine Frage der Motivation und Priorisierung sein. Solange die Kunden nach NFTs und den neuesten Altcoins schreien ist Lightning Support relativ egal. Tatsächlich wird es einem Binance recht gut gelegen kommen wenn die Leute durch die Withdrawal Fee von ~20 EUR (unabhängig vom Zustand des Mempools) davon abgeschreckt werden ihre BTC abzuziehen. Da muss man dann ja nicht auch noch extra Arbeitsaufwand in etwas reinstecken das dafür sorgen könnte das die Leute weniger Geld am Exchange lassen, vor allem wenn man seine eigene Smartchain pushen möchte.

Aber genug geranted meinerseits Smiley

Oha, als die Node etabliert wurde, waren es noch knapp 1000 BTC, ist aber auch schon ein Weilchen her  Grin

Deinem Binance-"rant" kann ich allerdings nur zustimmen. Vielleicht sollte sich CZ doch mal vordergründig um ordentliche Marktlizenzen kümmern...
1327  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: December 11, 2021, 09:02:19 PM
Lightning wächst inzwischen rasant und wer weiß ob vielleicht schon nächstes Jahr eine Börse Lightning implementiert.

Ein paar Börsen gibt's ja eh schon:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5357314.0

Wobei z.B. Bitstamp zwar einen Node am Laufen hat, aber noch keine Ein- und Auszahlungen über LN anbietet (zumindest konnte ich die Option nicht finden).

Kraken hatte es für Anfang 2021 geplant, aber meines Wissens gibt's an der Front nachwievor kein Update.

Der LN von Bitstamp ist eher sowas wie ein Bekenntnis zum Lightning Netzwerk. Stellen halt Liquidity zur Verfügung. Mit dem Exchange hat das operativ nichts zu tun.
Lightning ist in gewisser Weise auch entbehrlich, weil auf den Exchanges selbst ja eh offchain gehandelt wird. Für Ein-/Auszahlungen wär's aber allemal praktisch, nur wären dann wohl auch weit mehr als "nur" 1000BTC (um mit der Prestige-LN-Node von Bitstamp zu vergleichen) auf dem Knoten nötig...
1328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2021, 08:48:02 PM
29k is ultimate support =D gogogoggg

10k incoming.
Lol at 69k the cycle top. Not even 4 x of last cycle high.

Quoted for future nostalgia  Cheesy

I was close to commenting upon this idea earlier.. and surely it seems to be that there is a kind of tendency for disingenuine posters (or maybe sometimes just distracted posters) to get caught up upon previous tops and to use the previous tops as their measuring points regarding where we have been, where we are at and where we might be going.  Maybe a disproportionate focus on the tops allow for the presentation of more extreme views and just to lead the topic into nonsensical directions (even if there might be some factual truths within the framework).

So, yes.. there is a truth that bitcoin prices for this particular top of $69k had so far ONLY reached about 3.5x of the December 2017 top (which was $19,666).

On another note, I am thinking that a fair representation of the start of this particular bull cycle would be around $4,200, and surely some claims of randomness can be thrown in my direction too.. but I will maintain a believe that $4,200 is a kind of ballpark starting off figure for this particular bull cycle and that the cycle had largely started right around April 1, 2019 (even though we could not really feel too confident about the start of the cycle until around mid-May 2019).   So, our high so far for this cycle seems to be around 16.4x from its base.. which surely is way smaller than the 2013 cycle and the 2017 cycle, which ended up around more than 100x and around 78x respectively.  

If this cycle ends with only 16.4x, the that would be a decent amount of disappointment for a lot of BTC accumulators/HODLers who seem to have been expecting a bit more for this cycle (including yours truly), but even a 16.4x price appreciation is still not any kind of major disappointment - absent figuring out where we would be going from here (presuming that this cycle is actually over, which does NOT seem likely but we surely cannot rule it out because having this cycle over would likely have greater than 40% odds of actually playing out that way.. from my quasi-layman's overview).

By the way, another ball park framing from my perspective would be that current odds of going below $10k probably would have less than 1% odds, below $20k less than 5% odds and below $30k less than 20% odds... and another dynamic is actually to go below those various price thresholds as a kind of spike down, and another dynamic would be to actually be able to stay below certain price thresholds.. and in any event Billy nocoiners desires to discuss sub $10k as if it were really any kind of meaningful possibility seems to be quite a fantasy whether we are either referring to sustainability or even short term spikes (and sure we did see one exchange (BinanceUS) have a fluke short term spike to around $8k just about 2 months ago, and surely that is a kind of fluke of relatively illiquid exchanges, rather than any kind of a meaningful reflection on the overall BTC price support thresholds).

I can only second that, JJG. I'm anything but disappointed, but sure extending the climb up, finishing in another exponential blow-off top, even invalidating S2F (in the up direction) would have been the foundation for a great story to tell my kids as grown ups.
It it what it is. That's my sentiment.

Now for the explanation of my statement to BillyNocoiner,
Quote
for future nostalgia
was more or less only about the $10k, and especially about the "cycle top". Who could call out a "cycle top" if nocoiner nobody knows exactly IF we already had this cycle's top.
"For future nostalgia", as a log entry in WO, if BillyNocoiner ever deletes his post, when we might finally hit higher figures than the quoted $69k.
I mean nostalgia in the likes of "Do you WO guys remember annoying BillyNocoiner, constantly calling out $10k bottoms just before we were climbing to $234k back in 2022? LOL".
I am bullish on Bitcoin. Don't ask me how, maybe it's only assertive thinking, but i still refuse to be bitter about the way BTC is charting at the time.
Why not being bitter? You gave yourself the answer already. We're up since 2017 a fair amount of times. How could i be unhappy with that?

Invalid image.

For my part it's good enough that the original image stays in Imaginationland  Cheesy
1329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2021, 10:07:40 AM
29k is ultimate support =D gogogoggg

10k incoming.
Lol at 69k the cycle top. Not even 4 x of last cycle high.



Quoted for future nostalgia  Cheesy
1330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 11, 2021, 12:31:17 AM
Perfect timing for NGU(Y) post, gembitz  Cheesy

Number
Goes
Up
(Yo)
1331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2021, 08:43:21 PM
Quote
Keeping my mind on a better life
Where happiness is only a heartbeat away
Paradise, can it be all I heard it was
I close my eyes and maybe I'm already there

Wise words.
By whom?
1332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2021, 08:36:44 PM

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

Yes and no  Smiley
It's one of the most retarded states in a middle european country. Full lumberjack territory  Cheesy
But when you live more away from society, it's actually really nice. A lot of nature, simple people.
You could hike for the rest of your life over hundreds of mountain pastures in the warm seasons, swim in dozens of nearby crystal clear lakes, look at the milky way in the many clear, dark nights and much more. Winter is dominated by alpine sports, if you're into it.


I quickly self quoted my post to add that about 1% of the folks around here are educated enough to actually write and speak good english.
I'd say no more than 5% can - in a very sketchy sounding way - take an active part in an english conversation, to some extent.
This is the hard part if you would want to actually get in touch with the locals Roll Eyes
1333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2021, 06:30:20 PM

Maybe I should retire to wherever you are.

No fucking assholes about. No screaming imbeciles.

Seems peaceful and pleasant as long as you have good heat at home.

Yes and no  Smiley
It's one of the most retarded states in a middle european country. Full lumberjack territory  Cheesy
But when you live more away from society, it's actually really nice. A lot of nature, simple people.
You could hike for the rest of your life over hundreds of mountain pastures in the warm seasons, swim in dozens of nearby crystal clear lakes, look at the milky way in the many clear, dark nights and much more. Winter is dominated by alpine sports, if you're into it.
1334  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 10, 2021, 05:56:52 PM
Asia is selling?
This is actually a good thing, mid to long term, but the way to the "new global balance" might be curvy.
Q1/22 should be a good time for latecomer institutions to get in cheap (and El Salvador to rack up their holdings). I hope they won't let this chance pass...

Even more snow since yesterday.
Drone pic from a longer afternoon walk:



EDIT: When you zoom in, you can see the trackmarks of my farmer neighbors quad and tractor races.
1335  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: December 10, 2021, 05:45:26 PM
Hi Leute,

mal ne Frage in eigener Sache: Hat jemand Erfahrungen (möglichst gute) mit der Online Bank N26 in Bezug auf Fiat Transaktionen von/zu Exchanges und Bitcoin Brokern?
Meine nationalen Banken machen in der Hinsicht zunehmend Stress, möchte da demnächst mit einem Konto "ausweichen", falls Transaktionen von/zu meinen bestehenden Banken gesperrt werden und ich ne böse Email geschickt bekomme...

Danke  Smiley
1336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 09:53:47 PM
Friends of patterns and lines: Would touching $46k today make it a double bottom? Yes or no?

As long as the owner of the bottom is a consenting adult, touching is fine I think.

The laughs were well worth this last sMerit of mine  Smiley

But why in the world did it remind me of Sweden and Julian Assange, spontaneously after reading?  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
1337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 09:11:40 PM



So.... $74K before Christmas?? Tongue  Huh  Shocked  Roll Eyes  Cool  Grin  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

Dude, i already told you about science proved that only sub-average IQ people use more than three emoticons in a row.
Don't be dumb, do it like this:

Tongue  Huh  Shocked  
Roll Eyes  Cool  Grin  
Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

*SMH*



Friends of patterns and lines: Would touching $46k today make it a double bottom? Yes or no?

That may be so. But I can't shake the fact that I keep corrupting some of you with my ways. And that is more then I needed. Even if it is just to discredit one another, to make 'feel rank above status tangible'. Smiley

We are all shared knowledge, we are all observe history.   Roll Eyes Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

IMO, you did not quite nail it, sorry.
TBH, i got a wee bit cheeky because you were chiming in with a new member at picking ad-hominem on some folks who i came to quite like a bit (#nohomo) over the last years in these here parts.
Never mind, let's keep the laughing  Wink
1338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 08:17:34 PM
We will go up again when most plebs have lost hope. We might even dip below $40,000 but then the rocket to $100,000 will ignite. Moon in Q2 or Q3 2022. The 4 year cycles are over, this time is different.

Seconded.
I had plans for selling some percent of my stash in Q4 this year, for buying useful goods, but i ain't disappointed in any way because things are the way they are atm.
Real hodlers don't care. Bitcoin taught me how to wait.



So.... $74K before Christmas?? Tongue  Huh  Shocked  Roll Eyes  Cool  Grin  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

Dude, i already told you about science proved that only sub-average IQ people use more than three emoticons in a row.
Don't be dumb, do it like this:

Tongue  Huh  Shocked  
Roll Eyes  Cool  Grin  
Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

*SMH*



Friends of patterns and lines: Would touching $46k today make it a double bottom? Yes or no?
1339  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 07:56:17 PM




...Laura?  Grin
1340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 09, 2021, 01:39:37 PM
I am opening a 100x 1x leverage long position for €5k  Wink


Quote from: Average teenage "investor"
HFSP  Tongue Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Looks like news of the China real estate defaults are starting to affect corn prices negatively?

This is a fascinating dynamic to me.  The Chinese real estate meltdown stands to be the gasoline on the fire that has been burning since the similar situation 13 years ago (that Satoshi mentions in the genesis block).

And that will have possibly profound effects on ALL markets.

But, as we are aware bitcoin has a particular property that makes it a VERY attractive haven in the midst of a storm like the one I think we are watching unfold.

So, I think as this gets worse all markets drop as money is moved to risk off investments.  Bitcoin is still crazy speculative, and poised to be the most pristine risk-off asset in the world.

As much as I would like to see Bitcoin;s famous volatility fade a little?  I do not think we have seen the end of it yet.  But it should be interesting to watch.

China banned Bitcoin. Coincidence?
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