Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving
Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available.
Small correction: If someone predicts 7803, the 7777-prediction doesn't cover 7752-7802, but only 7752-7790, and 7790-7828 is "covered" bij prediction 7803. In this case, 7790 overlaps both predictions.
BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target...
An alternative, and this is a bit more complicated but also a good exercise in using Bitcoin's possibilities, would be to ask everyone to hide their prediction until the entries are closed.
So:
1. make up a number ($100,000).
2. sign a message from a Bitcoin address with your prediction and some random text ("$100,000 6632099102860212817669648358652770915593").
3. post only the signature, don't edit this post anymore. Keep your prediction secret and don't forget your random text!
4. wait for all other participants to do the same, and wait for micgoossens to announce new entries are no longer allowed
5. post the bitcoin address and signed message, this reveals your prediction.
6. now we wait
Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy
That's too bearish
It makes sense for very low predictions, but a $100,000 prediction could still be boxed in between $99,975 and $100,025, which gives it only 0.05% range. Meanwhile, a bear who predicts $500, covers everything from $475 to $525, which gives him a 10% range.
If you're going with "boxes", can each box be a percentage of the prediction (say 1%)?
So:
1000 covers 995-1005
10,000 covers 9,950-10,050
100,000 covers 99,500-100,500
Damn still only 9 voting people
Poll is closed already, I was too late to add my signed message idea.
The easiest way to do this is probably just to state a minimum of x earned merits in the last y months, so 25 merits earned in the last 6 months, for example.
I could provide a list of qualifying users if this is how it's going to be
I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list.
As of last Friday,
this is the list:
25 Merit earned since the beginning of
time the Merit system gives 2957 possible candidates (some of them are banned).
It might also be good to add a requirement for how many members sent Merit: a user who received 25 Merit from 1 other user doesn't sound right to me.
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