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2581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 11:35:40 PM
The more I look at the MTGox situation the more I am convinced they are in serious financial trouble. It has all the indicators of a company delaying the inevitable. By the way I find that the market valuation of MTGoxBTC in terms of BTC currently at 0.648 at https://bitcoinbuilder.com/ very high.

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

One of two things is going on here: a wealthy insider knows Gox is totally empty and is selling at any price, or people are being irrational and stupid as usual. I'm going with the latter.

I picked up 39 goxcoin at 0.54 yesterday. No concerns.

Yes. One reason is that MTGox has added payment providers recently but only for deposits and not for withdrawals. https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20131219.html, https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20131205.html

When you have problems with withdrawals supposedly because of procedures at the bank, why not not add MoneyPolo for withdrawals first? As for the BTC and now even JPY withdrawals issues. The indicators are getting clearer by the day.
2582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2014, 10:53:55 PM
The more I look at the MTGox situation the more I am convinced they are in serious financial trouble. It has all the indicators of a company delaying the inevitable. By the way I find that the market valuation of MTGoxBTC in terms of BTC currently at 0.648 at https://bitcoinbuilder.com/ very high.
2583  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Happy to announce that the Coinality iOS App has been approved by Apple! on: February 19, 2014, 10:13:14 PM
It is a very poor choice on the part of Coinality to develop for IOS and not Android given Apple's history of censorship in general and censorship directed at Bitcoin in particular. A complete waste of time and resources in my opinion.
2584  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Happy to announce that the Coinality iOS App has been approved by Apple! on: February 19, 2014, 10:06:07 PM
So one can apply for a job that pays in Bitcoin, but when it comes to spending one hard earned wages one will not be able to use IOS devices. My thought on this is that anyone who holds BTC let alone someone who is paid in BTC needs to stay well away from Apple and its censored IOS.

Edit: Unless of course one wishes to sell APPL short.
2585  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: restore Avolon V1 on: February 19, 2014, 07:43:40 PM
Do you know what IP you gave it?
2586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Upcoming MtGox Movement on: February 19, 2014, 06:20:43 PM
My SEPA went through in 2 days. Got some cheap coins at $260 Tongue

You got an MTGox note payable in BTC for $260 per BTC promised. The question remains will MTGox pay?
2587  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamps bank account is closed. on: February 18, 2014, 03:58:53 PM
Account registered February 14th, 2014. Must be credible.  Cheesy

+1
2588  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Biometrics is the key to defeating Bitcoin hackers! on: February 18, 2014, 03:45:31 PM
Apple touch ID is a perfect example of Security Theatre  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_theater, as was demonstrated by the Chaos Computer Club http://www.ccc.de/en/updates/2013/ccc-breaks-apple-touchid. It is completely useless to secure against Bitcoin hackers who are more often than not far more competent than Apple in security.
2589  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-02-14] FreeSpeechMe: The new Anti-Censorship Namecoin-Based Plug-in on: February 18, 2014, 12:15:25 AM
The development of this Plug-in is an excellent development; however I must say that the demand for the NMC project is to a large degree driven by the MPAA getting some variant of SOPA through the US Congress. If the MPAA fails as they did in 2012 then interest in the NMC project will drop.

1. Governments will NEVER drop attempts to censor, no matter what acronym it's snuck through the back door with. SOPA already "failed", so the US is going to the UN for this stuff.

And even without SOPA.... The DOJ, DOC, FBI, ICE, etc. seize domains ALL DAY EVERY DAY. In all nations. Through international treaties. And look what happened in Turkey last week. Dot-Bit would have prevented that.

2. Even if we achieved worldwide LibPar (libertarian paradise) tomorrow, Dot-Bit is far more secure against HTTPS and DNS hijacking (which could still be done by individuals in the absence of government) than centrally controlled domains. (Dot-Com and the rest.) Dot-Bit has advantages that go far beyond preventing censorship. It's what the Web should have been built on from the start, but Satoshi / Appamato / The Namecoin Team / Jeremy Rand were just little kids then. (I'm assuming about Satoshi, but the rest were.)

If Obama really wanted to "protect the Internet" (which is how the pass all the tyranny), he'd encourage everyone to switch to Dot-Bit.

The government will never do that. And will quietly do quite the opposite.

MWD

While I do agree with a lot of what you are saying keeping an eye on what ThePirateBay is up to here is very relevant. Take a look at this https://forum.suprbay.org/Thread-How-The-Pirate-Bay-Plans-to-Beat-Censorship-For-Good in particular
Quote
Another important change is that the new software will not use standard domain names. Instead, it will use its own fake DNS system that will link the site’s name to a unique and verified public key. For example, within the application bt://mysite.p2p/ will load 929548249111abadfjab29347282374.p2p.

“Site owners will be able to register their own names, which will serve as an alias for the curve25519 pub-key that will identify the site,” the Pirate Bay insider notes.

“The “domain” registrations will be Bitcoin authenticated, on a first come first served basis. After a year the name will expire unless it’s re-verified.”

Are they actually going to be using NMC or reinventing Namecoin on top of Bitcoin? If it is the latter then ThePirateBay could either deliberately on inadvertently kill Namecoin.
2590  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MTGOX fits the pattern of insolvency [ARTICLE] on: February 17, 2014, 10:33:42 PM
Gox has made enough in trading fees to offset the known seized funds, even accounting for very high legal expenses. And if the malleability thievery had caused high losses, it would be visible on the blockchain. The article is zero facts, all FUD.

Fact #1: MTGOX has halted withdrawals and has them halted despite Bitstamp halting them and resuming in a shorter time than Gox is taking.

Fact #2: No one but Gox would have the addresses to which said funds were stolen were sent to.

Fact #3: If they had all the bitcoins they could prove it very simply. But they have not.

Fact #4: Gox has a notorious reputation for saying something and not following through.

Fact #5: Mark was confronted in person by a customer and could not and would not answer his questions of whether or not Gox has all the bitcoins.

Fact #6: In every issue with MTGOX they always blame someone else.

Those are enough facts to show me that MTGOX is indeed not to be trusted. Likely they are insolvent.

If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck...you know the rest.

In addition to the above I must add

Fact #7 JPY Withdrawals (domestic within Japan) are now been delayed. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.msg5207137#msg5207137
 
Fact #8 MTGox added Money Polo back in December for deposits but not for withdrawals. Why just deposits? https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20131219.html
2591  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: MTGox Yen Withdrawal Thread. For Japan Residents. on: February 17, 2014, 10:23:22 PM
I am not a resident of Japan, I live in Canada but I see any delay in domestic (within Japan) JPY withdrawals as a very serious negative indication of the creditworthiness of MTGox.
2592  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: POLL: Is Mt. Gox Solvent? on: February 17, 2014, 09:49:34 PM
If I was to give MTGox a credit rating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating it has to be D in default.

If we break it out by currency

We have

BTC - D
USD - D
CAD - D
AUD - D
GBP - D
EUR - C (Some but not all payments are getting through, but there is imminent risk of default)
JPY - CC (Although payments are getting through, there is imminent risk of default)

I would weight MTGox's liabilities as 50% BTC and 50% fiat with the bulk of the fiat in USD. MTGox has been in USD default since last summer.
I voted NO

Edit: Correction I am now downgrading MTGox JPY from CC to C negative and changing my outlook MTGox EUR to C negative. See this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=428242.msg5207137#msg5207137 JPY withdrawals are now been delayed.
2593  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: PLUS500 UK Ltd HAVE DROPPED MT.GOX on: February 16, 2014, 11:41:01 PM
So now it is Avatrade's turn to drop MTGox.
2594  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] How has the Gox mess affected your position? on: February 16, 2014, 11:21:58 PM
One can trade GoxBTC/GoxUSD as a distinct currency pair from BTC/USD. The fundamentals and the technical analysis are very different.
2595  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2014-02-14] FreeSpeechMe: The new Anti-Censorship Namecoin-Based Plug-in on: February 16, 2014, 09:29:19 AM
If there is one site that could make use of this it is: http://thepiratebay.se/. Ironically they accept BTC and LTC but not NMC! If ThePirateBay does not go for NMC, who will?

Why would anybody need to accept namecoins?  Namecoin's success depends on people wanting to store public key-value pairs in its distributed dictionary, not from people using it as a medium of exchange.  Adoption of this plugin increases the visibility of the dictionary which will cause more people to want to store references in it.


True, but one would expect at least ThePirateBay to be using NMC to register a .bit domain. The development of this Plug-in is an excellent development; however I must say that the demand for the NMC project is to a large degree driven by the MPAA getting some variant of SOPA through the US Congress. If the MPAA fails as they did in 2012 then interest in the NMC project will drop.
2596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 07:30:59 AM
I've been trying to apply some logic to this situation and am not able to reach a rational solution except that MtSux is truly insolvent and a select few insiders know it.

So you trade GoxBTC for GoxUSD? How is that going to help in a bankruptcy?
2597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 16, 2014, 06:57:44 AM
what the fuck @ mtgox price!

I'm seriously *this* close to wire money there. The only thing keeping me from doing it is that I can't bring myself to support that incompetent piece of .... in any way.

I don't get it. It's not that unlikely for magicaltux to return the coins, is it?

What's the going rate for 1 mtgoxBTC in blockchainlBTC?


It does not make much sense because they are trading GoxBTC for GoxUSD, and magicaltux is way more likely to return BTC than USD. There is of course the explanation of market manipulation.
2598  Economy / Speculation / Re: hold your coin on mtgox on: February 16, 2014, 05:35:55 AM
The real question is who is now massively selling BTC on Gox now and why.
Thousands of coins are being sold in batches (100-300 pieces).


The question is, who the hell is buying them!!

Some very strong hands.
2599  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Fleecing of Mt. Gox on: February 16, 2014, 05:23:57 AM
My first suggestion to anyone involved with MTGox is that GoxBTC/GoxUSD is a very different currency pair than BTC/USD. The fundamentals are very different, as is the technical analysis. Take at look at http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd and see for yourselves.

With GoxBTC/GoxUSD trading at 50% of BTC/USD combined with the reality that is way more likely to get BTC out of MTGox than USD converting any fiat currency trapped in MTGox to GoxBTC is to me the least risky option.
2600  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Fleecing of Mt. Gox on: February 16, 2014, 04:54:33 AM
"Gox support is trying to convince me to cancel my USD withdrawal and buy back BTC. If a bank operated like this they would be shutdown in an instant. All I want is to get my money out and never go near the exchange again yet instead I'm involved in a 'discussion' with their support that goes around in circles & never ends."

LAUGH MY ASS OFF.

See this part, "If a bank operated like this they would be shutdown in an instant."

Really genius. Why do you think that any rational person is saying that bitcoin in a bubble/Ponzi scheme/scam and that it can just as easily go to zero tomorrow as $1,000,000 each. Nobody to save you - you 'old miner / timer' goof. No bank, no central authority, no cops, no government, nada, zip, zilch, you have been fleeced and get that into you.

I am focusing all my effort both day and night to rip off / hack / steal / scam every bloody bitcoin I can, and dump it as fast as I sell it. This bitcoin mania is the single biggest opportunity in the history of cybercrime to make it big!

Now back to hacking I go... more noobs wallets to steal  Shocked

I would do as they suggest, have them cancel the wire, and buy the BTC especially at these prices. MTGox will open up BTC withdrawals long before you will be able to withdraw USD. The USD issue has been going on since last summer. I went though this back in the fall with trapped CAD. Cancelled the wire and bought the BTC during the silk road crash at around 122 CAD per BTC, and withdrew the BTC at the first opportunity.

The danger you face is that they will open BTC withdrawals and the GoxBTC/GoxUSD rate could easily sky-rocket to 200 or 300 USD above the Bitstamp price, and if one has trapped USD then one has real trouble.

Edit: Do not fear Bubba profit at his expense instead.
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