But still we have to zoom out, this is the first meaningful pump/bounce we had since falling off a cliff from 6k. Markets don't move in straight lines. We still have to make our first higher high on the daily.
Therefore we need to close above 4.4k, until that happens the trend is still bearish. I dont expect us to break 4.4k without first making a higher low in the 3.6k area. If that higher low fails we will see new lows
Absolutely : The most important level is not where this pump goes, but where the next low meets support. A high above 5k is quite possible, because the drop from 6.4k was steep. Key support should be tested in Jan/Feb. If 3.5k or higher holds, that is positive. Longer term trend is strongly down, but hopefully that will look more level in a few months. |
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Aren't you worried about how long you will live?
If you're a purple bloated leaking gasbag with millipedes crawling out your eye sockets then you tend not to worry about such things any more. Anyway I remember you offering Rpietlia some health advice once upon a time and look what happened to him. I think Rpietlia didn't need physical health advice. His reactions to events just seemed to follow a bipolar schedule. |
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.....and the sucker's rally begins
Yes, bitcoin's price has a habit of filling gaps and this seems no different. It would not indicate a V-bottom reversal to me unless it cracked above the descending triangle's floor at ~5700. That would be a strong indication, but time is a more important variable than price IMO. The low will only be confirmed to be in the rear-view mirror when price has held at least 50 % above the low point (lets say that is around $5k) for several months. That point will be the safest area to buy . It is risky to anticipate it, because a subsequent drop to a new low can wipe out a lot of capital . The % rise from a lower low would more often give a greater profit than the missed potential of waiting for confirmation. Drip-feeding in would mitigate the effect, of course. |
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47 people got the poll wrong so far.
The answer is "you don't know."
We're in a speculation thread... The one thing I've learned from this thread is that nobody really knows anything. Speculating is a bit different from letting a monkey throw a dart at a wall, where one half of it is painted "yes" in green and the other half painted "no" in red. The monkey would have just as good odds of answering this question as anybody else. Thus, the correct answer is "I don't know." Not so. If you were right, there is no point in posting on this thread. This thread is about speculation. It is self evident that nobody has certain knowledge of the future price, but many opinions and guesses have some valid insight. We all post our opinions, either you have one or you don't. |
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....So, during the bear market, employ your time opening accounts in as many exchanges as you can, verify as needed, learn their UI, etc... During a bull market things happen very fast, and chances are that you won't be able to use that exchange you need to trade some fork/altcoin or use for fiat withdrawal if you have not done your homework well in advance.....
This is great advice. The bear market will be long and tough to endure, and this is just the sort of work that will be making progress, instead of anxiously watching falling or stagnant prices. Verification can often be a long process. It is also useful to be familiar with the rules of the exchanges and businesses you deal with. |
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Yep  Btw, I should probably ask, what is a crypto winter? I assumed it was just another term for bear market, but idk, and you’re a legendary member, so maybe you’d know?  I'd say it's the wasteland following a bear market where price doesn't budge for what feels like forever. Look to the seemingly eternal $200-250 phase after the low was in in January 2015. It probably wasn't all that long in retrospect. It seems to be when many projects and hopes die. The beary bit is still filled with delusion. Yes. Then we are entering the winter now. Most of the price falls are behind us, but this is the hardest bit. Months of slow declines and failing projects. Slow attrition. Afterwards, spring is also slow in developing. |
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People like mysteries and conspiracy theories. They create them where nothing exists, and convolute information to 'support' theories.
IMO Satoshi is always going to be an unsolved enigma.
The simple explanations are :
1. It is the duplicate account of another major early player/group of players.
2. 'He' died.
Hacks account for recent activity.
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This is getting very, very reminiscent of the last bear market both price trajectory but also our very own WO thread activity. We’re going back to 2015 levels of posting. It’s totally dying in here which is possibly a good sign to tell you the bottom might be in or at least very close.
On a large scale, the downtrend is flattening... until now. A common error of traders is that they want to catch the very bottom.
You don't NEED that. Actually, unless you're the big whale(or group) that's moving the price you probably won't manage to "catch the falling knife".
Instead of that, near the bottom there's plenty of time to think and make a good decision to buy and make a good profit with lower risk of missing out.
That's way I bought on the way down. There is a good chance the price will go down further but... damn... I even bought when it was 12-13k... now it's time to make decisions! Safest to buy when the price has doubled from the lows, over at least a few months.Then you are with the trend. It will be a bit of a wait now, because we are still in the downtrend. It is psychologically damaging to buy a downtrend, but if you think you can cope, go ahead ! Patience required. |
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I can't believe some alts are so cheap, in 2017 everybody believed prices would have rised more and more... now it could be a huge opportunity to get into the market.
Although, scam coins are still present and I don't see Ethereum in good shape as it was 1 year ago.
I can't believe most of them have retained the price they still have. Which says to me we still have a ways to go. It's getting tricky to understand how much it could go lower, but probably you are right. This is a huge depression. Not a depression. This is a normal wave. It will remain normal if the low does not get under $1500. The recovery will take 2-3 years. |
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Fortunately it all looks so doom. It must be harder to trick people by dumping it lower as people are coming to expect it.
Surprising , many still dont expect it. This market has been easy to predict in 2018. It is not difficult to see what lies ahead, either. |
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I think true capitulation is in - My reasoning = no micgoosens for multiple pages Spot on. You will be surprised how true that is, and also how long it will before it happens. 3 months averaging 2 pages a week on WO, is my guess. Maybe 2020. The way to deal with it, if you have an income, is to put 5% of your spare capital into BTC every month. That way, you will be $ cost averaging through the lows. If you dont have any spare, then the best thing to do is go away and find a distraction from looking at the price for a year or two (while hodling) |
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19666*3 = 58,998
or
19666*10 = 196,660
Awesome =)
Could well be between those levels. Will be a few years to wait, but worth it ! |
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I think that we are now within striking distance of this bear market lows. 3300 down to 2000 is not that far. (might be a quick drop to 1500 at the low print, but you could miss it if you blink)
However, as far as time goes, there is a long way to go yet. The majority of the price pain is mostly done, but the waiting is going to be hard.
$3000 is strong support. Could be a bounce from here, but a new lower low in a few months.
Just my rough guess.
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Why not $1,300 like all the other Tone Vays acolytes are gravitating towards?
This is the reason (my post from Feb 13th).. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg30196222#msg301962221500 is in the middle. You can say 1300 if you like. I said 2000 and sub 1500 in several other posts in February, and I would think the actual low print will be a swift affair : so 1500 print, with a bit more time spent around 2000. Thats my own guess. I know you carry out diligence on past posts, so you will know what I have consistently said. (and I really do admire your depth of research) I make my own calculations and don't take advice from others unless I agree with their reasoning. |
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It's just so bullish.
What is bullish ? (I realise /s tag is missing, but what particularly was unbullish ?) IMO the trend is still down, and the next target is 2600. however, that is a 20% drop, so it might not be quick. I decided in February that I would not be surprised if price got to 1500 in 2019, and therefore the whole bear market, whilst not welcome, is not much of a shock. |
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The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.
Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite. They're used to paper. Everything they do is built around it. The futures are provided by names they trust, unlike the physical options. Like most people here they're only after more dollars but at least they're happy to admit it. They'll have to be dragged into thinking physical is to their benefit. It's alien to how they operate. There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention. Is that not the same for BTC ? Most ppl are after more dollars. When the $$ price of BTC falls it is bad news for them. They are treating BTC like a stock/commodity, and most have an intention to sell (usually only a portion) for fiat. That makes a lot of intended sales hanging over the market. This could be a very long bear market. I would guess the price needs to get low enough so that every potential seller has actually sold (fear) or is going to hodl (to 0 if needed) because the value of their holding is not enough to be worried about. Simple Trading Psychology. |
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I really have absolutely no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next. Bitcoin is like a box of
The overall price has been relatively easy to predict this year, and the general trend for the next year seems quite obvious to me. (maybe that means I'm wrong ?) |
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The first seasteads will be more like individuals building a log cabin in the woods. Then more people also building their cabins in nearby woods. Some deciding to be next to each other, some preferring to be on their own. As it grows bigger there will be those that congregate more in one area while others still choose to be far enough away. There will always be the option to be far enough away. That makes it very difficult for a dictatorship to thrive.
So more like people choosing to move to Alaska to be free. Without the cold but with other challenges.
The mega super structures are a long way from happening and likely slow down seasteading by being the main focus and drain of money that never results in anything being built.
Agree. Organic (and relatively slow at the outset) growth is the only way to establish this sort of global movement. Similar in a way to BTC. Planning and centralisation always put a spanner in the works, and can only have a use in later stages. |
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... It seems that you are more pessimistic than I would like....
I am more pessimistic than I would like. However, I always try to edit out my own wishful optimism and focus on an unbiased objective view. I always did the same thing in stock trading forums etc.. The odd thing is, my actual trading is more optimistic, and I tend to hold back in hope and compromise a little, rather than fully carry out the hard realistic trades. When I look back at my own posts I usually wish I had followed my own advice more closely. Its kind of like I am second-guessing myself, or splitting my personality. Seems to generate profit in practice, over the long term. Hopefully I'm still sane. I wonder if any other posters recognise that method in themselves ? |
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