Bitcoin...1 year later. 4h  D Rising volume is what I am noticing, a good sign. Still shying away from testing the 9 day conversion line(tenkan-sen). Looks to me like bears are going to make another push downward over the weekend. #stronghands  |
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Good morning all. Some legacy market news for your viewing pleasure before we move on to bitcoin. The softening Chinese economy might indicate another upswing of interest in crypto from that sector as capital seeks shelter. Global stocks weaken as hawkish Fed, slowing China data trim risk appetite.
U.S. dollar softens, however, as investors focus on growth optimism, not inflation concern, in Jerome Powell comments.
China's central bank fails to follow Fed hike as domestic investment falls to 22-year low.
Euro rises to multi-week high as investor await potential policy signal from ECB President Draghi.
Wall Street futures drift lower amid broader sentiment pullback, but tech stocks may outperform.
Oil prices edge lower as weak China data offsets falling U.S. stockpiles.
I found this article informative as well. Captain Kirk is onboard. Mewn confirmed.  https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-solar-powered-crypto-mining-outfit-blasts-off-backed-by-star-trek-s-shatner---------- Bitcoin 1h Market consolidation has continued overnight with bitcoin retracting to just below $6.4k and is looking for support in that area. Most alts are back in the green now after a serious sell-off yesterday indicating we might have bottomed out locally.  4h Is that a small bat signal way up high? Small break in the clouds approaching, looks like a test of resistance in that area.  D Support hodling. MACD slowly turning upwards. RSI still oversold.  #dyor |
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I read through the Tether manipulation paper. IMO it made two convincing points:
#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
- Issuing new USDT
- Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
- Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
- Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
- Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation. But the authors didn't address the alternative possibility of this being a particularly ham-fisted whale who is a close partner of Tether.
#2 Due to end-of-month trading, Tether has probably always been trading with USD deposited with them (fractional-reserve), though at least until March 2017, USDT was probably not complete monopoly money, since they did go to the effort of achieving an end-of-month USD balance.
The authors also tried to argue some other points which I didn't find convincing.
I took the paper's data at face value. There were several points where I thought that they could be cherry-picking data, but it's too difficult to check this sort of thing. Cherry-picking / confirmation bias is especially easy to do with block-chain analysis. And I know for a fact that their method of grouping block-chain transactions is not robust in general, though it probably was sufficient for what they did here.
I've thought for a long time that USDT is almost certainly a scam, and this paper makes me think so even more. Though I was actually a little surprised that this provides evidence (via the end-of-month trading) that USDT ever had any real USD.
The paper estimates that if you removed the USDT issuance events which the paper's authors regard as most likely to be BTC price manipulation, the BTC price would be $4100 as of March 31. But that's based on a whole pile of assumptions; I wouldn't give it much credence. I think that the collapse of USDT will be mostly limited to the obvious direct effects (ie. some exchanges would have major troubles, there'd be many people stuck with worthless USDT, etc.), and there would not somehow be a natural "rollback" of any gains which monopoly-money USDT may have driven. Also, the paper makes clear that all major crypto was affected, often much more than BTC, so this isn't any sort of argument against BTC in particular.
+1 WOsMerit I concur with your deductions. My biggest problem is exactly what you pointed out about cherry picking data points. What else intrigues me is those EOM buy backs. It is interesting to think we have been floating on that buffer for several months now and it didnt come apart..completely anyway. From the base price of $4100 with those data points removed compared to the current market price of $6.4k, would it be reasonable to assume 64% of the tethers are backed by fiat? Is this logical? The ROI since inception must fully cover all assets by now. Big ass rabbit hole.. I find myself playing devil's advocate here and feeling kinda slimy because of it. I just dont know and to top that off..does it even matter? -------------- Bitcoin 1h Breaking out of the downward channel.  4h Testing resistance/support at a fib.  D Still well below averages but weakly recovering.  |
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I was taught early that if you dont have anything good to say..its probably best not to say anything at all.. See how long I can make this work. Some fib numbers to look at on the 4h.  #hodlingwithyoufam --------------------- LoooL so the tether FUD is back on the table. Today? Really? What a coincidence, isnt it?
I was 99,99% sure this card ist going be played at the end, the final joker card...
Its ironic yes... Also Bitfinex has refused to lead the market since this has escalated. Its Bitstamp leading most moves now with Coinbase following and 'finex being dragged along unless its a downward move. Interesting times indeed. I have to admit to you all that I was so sure that the exponential adoption would carry us over any downturn this year...its refreshing in a strange way to be so completely wrong...once in awhile. ------------------- +1WOsMerit I like your style Goose. Keep it going dude. |
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Good morning all. A big day it seems. Lots of speculation happening.. I have three things I think are worth mentioning this morning.. 1. Today the Fed will issue guidance for a interest rate hike. Should be out in a couple of hours but generally positive news is expected. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-mixed-ahead-of-feds-interest-rate-decision-idUSKBN1J902I2. Some interesting data about Tether and its use to manipulate the price of bitcoin and other cryptos. While this seems credible..I would caution that this needs further peer review. Also of note..this is not the best written paper I have seen from an academic. There are several problems with continuity and syntax I spotted right off. ymmv. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=295096073027113073065090119101116107055064063038093061070012082027073102081003117023041124051002057017044101120072087031100027017010070089022088094094112018087082125059006082106028007000092107024030017085025127109107118017000105108013080026065066096093&EXT=pdf3. I can no longer recommend bitcoin as a buy at this time. While I remain bullish in the long term..short term and mid seem to indicate we are going under 5k. I see nothing on the horizon that indicates a rebound upwards is in the making. While this is probably what is wanted to drive capitulation..I have to report what I am seeing. I sincerely apologize everyone. Being the bearer of bad news I know intellectually its not my fault but it still feels really bad. I will show charts..they all show indicators at the bottom...meaning the price should be heading north. But its still dropping as market sentiment is in control of pricing. 1h  4h  D  Ok. Here's some despair.
I'm not proud to be asking this question, but...
"Does it look like Doug Polk will lose his bet ?"
- imgs snipped-
Yes. Yes it does Bob. We are all losers today. Ahh..tfw you are wrong before you finish your first cup of coffee for the day.. If it doesn't, I will Jello wrestle you for the amusement of JJG.
Hmm..might be worth propping up the market just to see this...can we get a time frame infofront?  |
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Thanks Toxic, will try again... .
Third attack also rebounded, but at a serious cost to the wall... . :-)
Anytime. well..most times.. meh..you know what I mean. -------------- 4h  That line held up well over the last month it seems. The bold part above the candles was drawn May 11th. Unsure of what the strike rate would have been but it looks not terrible. Sigh... The MM at Bitfinex wants the price down more so down we are going. Wonder what hes capitulation price is.. Next support is possibly around $6.4k If that is broken...well.. Everything I have said is bullshit then. Hope for the best...plan for the worst. DO NOT SELL THOSE OF YOU ON THE EDGE. This would be the worst time..suck it up and wait until December if you have too.. Capitulation at this point would be a serious error. |
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Looks like the dump express is running out of ammo. Someone is putting real buying walls in the Eurozone of Stamp. The first one of 50 something was eaten and then he put new ones around 5700€ and twice so far the dump was rebounded.
In a previous post I tried to insert an image from wikipedia, but that does not appear?
you can insert a url..but to have the image "seen" here you have to use a host. I like imgur myself but ymmv. [img]your.url.img.com.biz.whatever[/img] Bracketed with the img tags. you then can resize that image by adding "width=600" to the first bracket where the =number adjusts the size. Meh..hope this makes sense. --------------- That felt like a decent bump against the bottom didnt it? all the 6's makes me sick  Now you did it.. We will have to test $6666.66 now.. |
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You realize that statements like these are really conservative, and very long term bearish about bitcoin... which causes me to conclude that you have some lack of appreciation for bitcoin's potential upside. I do agree with you that the higher the expected future price, the lower the probability that it is going to happen, but it seems to me that when you use words like "ever" in your prediction, you are attempting to predict too many legs in a chain of future events that you have to be nearly completely speculating about since it is nearly impossible to accurately predict more than a few legs into the future at a time... and the further out you go the more any prediction is going to be based on a lot of factors currently unknown. Hopefully your bearishness is not rubbing too much off into me...  +1 WOsMerit I entirely agree with you !
50% is the probability I am assigning. 'Ever' is not a prediction, just a part of one of the possibilities.
Of course, I omitted to say that another scenario (part of the other 50% if you like), is that $100k is achieved before 2022.
All these numbers and time frames are speculation, yes, and subject to evolving circumstance. That is what this thread is for.
Hopefully I can present ideas that give others food for thought, and also prevent ppl from making errors in trading by being too myopic. My apparent bearishness is only a comparitive with general bullishness, and the greatest mistake IMO would be too become too mentally committed to a bullish outlook (and thus disillusionment) when we are merely in a long bear market, which will eventually turn round.
Low predictions of $2-3k are merely realistic scenarios, and are helping to avoid the mental pain of HODling in a downtrand.
+1 WOsMerit Doomsayers are usually the ones who dumped their stash and wanting you to do the same so they can buy from a lower price. Don't listen to them. Buy the fucking dip and hold.
I've played that game before and got burned because of a bull run.
Don't be a sucker. Be on the safe side.
If you haven't sold from 15k+ or even 10k+... why even bother now?
+1 WOsMerit  for all last pages but offcourse thats beautifull all can have there own opinion , but seems to be the case when we go down all say negative and when its bull rally ,nothing can't stand in the way of the higher prices  my father is maybe one of the worst .... is as long in BTC as myself never said anything good from 250-300 to 1500 allways bad feeling lot of sell offs ... than still with a very healthy amount in the bull rally to 20k "nothing is better than BTC" ... didn't sell a lot @ that time LOL price goes down and panic sell offcourse around 8000-9000 lot off sideways from there and yesterday after the recent DIP he was sitting in the office chair saying to my brother BTC will never go back to higher prices and its finisht and..... for many in here do not be my father in the BTC story i am happy i am the biggest BTC bagholder @our place +1 WOsMerit Price evolution from here...  +1 WOsMerit I disagree however. To much dip for the rest of this year and by 2022 lambo talk will seem cheap around here as we all will be drooling over BFR's and the first humans to set foot upon Mars. Tokyo2020 is coming for you and your bitcoin.. Be ready and have your bags packed. ---------------------------- +1 WOsMerit This Corallo guy is no dummy.Quite interesting, and very promising if it gets in use! BetterHash would also make easier to create new "anarchist" pools, where the main operator does get a commission, but without the ability to influence the individual miners' "political" choices.
I'd like to hear what miners (or ex miners) think about the likeliness of this new protocol to replace Stratum.
This is good stuff here, thanks. Probably should all be taking a closer look at this. ----------- Bitcoin Good morning all. Short term trend lines reaching for $6.88k Indicators are relaxing and seem to be showing some upwards potential for today. Still expecting a retest of support levels sometime late Wednesday, early Thursday however. This is gut check time.. Do you think bitcoin is over or under priced? I know mine feel undervalued right now. #dyor 1h  D  |
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I don’t see any walls. I guess a few hundred coins is a wall these days. In my day 30k coins was a wall.
In ur day 30k coins was 30k in fiat,
cheeky dig
sorry but let your self open no animosity intended, cheers
I agree not much in coins for a wall and nothing like the previous years
I remember one particular 30k wall at $300.
Define irony.. 1k coin on a few key exchanges and you have a pretty strong position these days. Pre-2013 that wasn't enough to irritate a small dolphin. If the bearwhale was frolicking today as of old, a sneeze from that beast would have most of you on your knees begging for mercy. Some of those 20k coin moves back then where just epic to behold.. -------- Daily long lens  This weekend will set the rest of the summer up..have to see how the potential upcoming dip is handled. That spike jutting out of the cloud has been there for quite awhile indicating a fairly well established move. Hopefully this sell off we have experienced has accounted for most of that all ready so to speak. Couple key dates to keep in mind. Mid July historically seems to contain a upwards spike followed by a slight draw down into late August. August to September is a possible indicated date for releasing more of the MtGox coins. Hopefully they have found some OTC buyers for most of what is planned on being released. I do think letting some go on the open market(i.e. exchanges) might possible help with the distribution of coins. Not completely convinced of that however. The dip on the end with the elegantly drawn question mark is trying to show that potential. Regardless, the last quarter of 2018 should produce some very nice days of upward movement. #dyor |
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I think the pain is just beginning.
And here I thought I was a waffler.. That was less than a hour for a 180... Thats pretty good even for WO standards. /sTheymos says 3 grand. I'm betting on 3 grand. Sad but true.
Fine...I'll loan you one of the Mayor's pair of pants.. fml..never going to hear the end of this.. Not going to happen...period. I honestly think we are going to test 6.5...maybe even 6k to close out that bet but not right now..maybe after the 24th of July and into August there will be another dip. But I am telling you now..if it drops below 5k you will see some very large moves happen very fast. So it would be short lived imho with a epic snap back. The Wall... it calls us. The asks are looking a little sloppy gentlemen...dress those lines!  |
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1h  4h  D  Shake and bake coming methinks.. Lot of shorts building up on 'fenix fyi.. #stronghands |
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1h Kissing the cloud.  Decision time..cut down to go under the cloud or test resistance upwards. I feel we are going to head back upwards to the $7.1k-$7.2k area as we move deeper into the week. The fear factor is wearing off and retail investors are starting to take another look see. D  Well below resistance on the daily. Have to see if we can rally back upwards as the week progresses. Its turning less bearish the longer we maintain this support level imho. ------------ Well, it's officially a sad day, folks. Penis Man got mostly wiped out on satoshis.place. This is still hanging in there, tho...  Had to send a smerit at ya Bob...for leet reasons...and the lol.  |
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Cryptocred knocking another one out of the park. I highly recommend checking it out. Risk management. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofwtsc20hOY  ------- Bitcoin  MSM is clueless...there is no way yesterdays correction was caused by one tiny tiny exchange getting brute forced... sorry..I dont buy it. That would be like claiming it was caused by Tone's and Doug's bet. Nope... still not buying it. Perhaps longs were getting out of control...and the market had to slam the door on some of them is one opinion. Some are saying its just a general technical correction..that the market was oversold. As in most things its usually a combination of events. Personal I think its was mostly due to panic selling over the CTFC news of a price manipulation probe coinciding with a general correction. Momentum gathers quickly once the tides shift. |
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Good morning guys. 1h  Honey badger on the prowl..lock up the whiskey and the women. 4h  Looks like Bob left out one of hes shit kicking boots last night.. Any status reports on he's where abouts?? D  From fully erect to limp and tender in a matter of hours...go bitcoin go. Looks like a corrective rebound is forming with indicators at or near bottoms. #dyor |
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Three possible long term trendline supports:  pacman going all weekly on us...sheeit..thats gotta be worth a merit. A bullish recovery scenario on the weekly might look something like this all be it a bit exaggerated.  |
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deleted by user.
I doubt anyone was asking for deletion..just some resizing. I really dont care as I view this from home on a 42inch screen. I have heard complaints about img size from phone users however..so I was just trying to pass along that your img's seemed large. I do have a pressing question however.. I believe we need to have these particular bottoms quantified and rated from left to right..what say you gentlemen?
For me..I have to say I appreciate the one on the far right the most.. Not sure if its that smile that accompanies it or the slight knock knee'edness...
I'll take the plumpest one, on the left. I do like that choice sir...was nearly a 50/50 split. That one looks like the kind you might take home to meet Mom..I try to stay well away from that type of wholesome goodness. *shudder* you guys think we will drop below 6k?
We could. The next 1200 hours are critical. It is possible...but I do not believe we will. And I make it the next 2,160(bout 90 days) hours that are critical eddie.. ----------- Some fib lines to gawk at.  |
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my baby fits me like a flesh tuxedo
+1 WOsMerit I am unsure what this means..but I like it and think its worth merit. Honestly the more I watch this thread the less I trust charts it's all about random ass fucking spikes up and down.
You're entitled to your opinion. Just as I'm entitled to continue posting my charts. After all, this is a forum for, "BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion" Indeed. Learning to use something like this might be appreciated I am thinking..ymmv. [img width=?] ffs smaller charts please..i am to not a TA kind of guy cause just don't understand it ......when i see the drawings with an uptrend ending i enjoy them offcourse .... but as its going DOUG POLK bet is not looking very good   Gotta keep the faith dude..keep the faith. It aint over till its over. TA is like your 80's internet connection..most of the time it worked, but when you really wanted it..guess what..it was out or slow as heck. Hopefully, a triple bottom will brighten everyone's day.
+1 WOsMerit Quite brighter now...ty. I do have a pressing question however.. I believe we need to have these particular bottoms quantified and rated from left to right..what say you gentlemen? For me..I have to say I appreciate the one on the far right the most.. Not sure if its that smile that accompanies it or the slight knock knee'edness... |
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Where's the bottom?  +1 WOsMerit for a superior bottom. I am intrigued by this image I must admit.. All the camera gear above the pc is leading me to all sorts of delightful questions. ----------- Bitcoin Either fall below $5k or rise above $9k...otherwise you no longer have my attention. Rut Row...its Godzilla! or maybe its a stegosaurus..unsure.  |
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Definition of manipulate manipulated; manipulating transitive verb 1 : to treat or operate with or as if with the hands or by mechanical means especially in a skillful manner manipulate a pencil manipulate a machine 2 a : to manage or utilize skillfully quantify our data and manipulate it statistically —S. L. Payne b : to control or play upon by artful, unfair, or insidious means especially to one's own advantage being used and manipulated by the knowing men around him —New Republic 3 : to change by artful or unfair means so as to serve one's purpose : doctor suspected that the police reports were manipulated —Evelyn G. Cruickshanks ----------- So what is it? Skillful, artful, unfair or insidious? This witch hunt for price manipulation, smh... Is this not the very definition of a free market? So if we want to exchange our coins for worthless fiat we should buy and sell at a loss...do I have this correct now? Is this not what the whole legacy stock market, futures market..bonds..is all about? What types of manipulation takes place there? Is that a (higher)priority for the SEC? Or are they focused on the new bright and shiny because it gets better press time? Why do American political directorates feel the need to try and police the world? Or are they just probing exchanges in the USA? Or is this something they are wasting my valuable tax dollars(sic) on globally? These are the questions going through my head this morning...besides why the fuck the price is dumping thru the floor..smh. -------------------- Bitcoin Back under $7k it looks like. That squirrel just will not stop digging for corn. That makes it official...trend is downwards again. Why didnt I listen to myself... "Its a tarp!" FML. 1h  4h  D  |
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