What exactly is going on with this epoch? almost 400 blocks in and we are at -4.5 %, I don't recall seeing such a start for a very long time, it also looks like Antpool took the lead from Foundry USA by looking at the 7-day average.

The 1-Year average is 30,11% for Foundry and 22,01% for Antpool
The 6-month average is 29,83% for Foundry and 23,62% for Antpool
The 3-month average is 29,08% for Foundry and 24,84% for Antpool
The 1-month average is 28,28% for Foundry and 26,97% for Antpool




I want nothing more than finding out that you were right lol.

So what does that article read? they want me to sign up to washingtonpost, imagine having to go through the trouble of typing an email address and verifying it, and then pay $4 every month just to sign up to fake news .

The only border Gaza has is Rafah which is controlled by Egypt, Israel can't drop a fly on Egypt let alone bombs, but Egyptians made their official statements clear, they won't let 2 million people from Gaza enter Egypt, because that's exactly what Israel wants, they want to send every Paletstian out of Gaza so they can control it forever, besides, this isn't an issue that Egypt needs to deal with, if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas and they want every civilian out of Gaza, they could send them north / east into Israel.



Well, assuming they do not end up burning due to direct airstrikes from Israel, your theory remains but an assumption.

We could ignore all the uncertainly surrounding the price movement and work with the incredible event of the halving, the halving is projected to take place around mid-April next year, probably sooner given the pace at which we are finding blocks, this means in 4.5 months rewards will be cut in half, what happens in the following weeks after the halving will be a survival of the fittest.

Post that, nobody will come out as profile or as strong, the halving will leave a huge scar on every miner including those who manage to stay, because there is just no way on earth that a 50% reward reduction would cause a 50% drop in difficulty, it never happened and it will never happen, however, what happens 4-6 months past that is going to be key, many companies and even small miners will have to reevaluate their positions, things will get ugly if the price doesn't spike to compensate the loss in the rewards.

This doesn't add up, silicon lottery does exist, but a 400w difference with the same hashrate and the same model is not possible, so what are you doing wrong? Are you sure they are both labeled S19 90TH? Is it possible that they sent you the Pro version instead? Can you post a screenshot of the hashrate and kernel log of both miners?


A slight improvement from different control boards might be possible ya, but he is talking 400w.

Prediction 2: $35,333.10
bech32 address: bc1qam9rpep8p8h50tvp52lfdtf5kt3tjhd7qwq9rr

It's impossible to guess the outcome of this unless enough time has passed, depending on how you look at it, you can easily be in favor of one thing against the other, the way I see it now is that the majority of on-chain transactions are not being used for P2P payments nor the average daily-life payment, also I see that blocks on average are nearly half empty/full, I also think that the majority of people treat BTC as a store of value simply "bad money drives out good".

I can also bet that this will never change, in reality, it will only get worse/better (depending on how you look it at), some years back people used to buy Pizza using their BTC. who is unwise enough now to spend BTC on Pizza? the more value BTC has the less people will spend it.

So it all looks like BTC could use another set of users without having a huge negative impact on the existing group.

Below is a weekly report of the current year's Max / Average blocksize, does it seem like the "average" users are fully utilizing the blocks?

Most likely the problem is with Braiins pool then, as simple as it looks assuming the above is accurate, to further ensure that the issue is indeed pool related you could try another pool besides Luxor, if it works without an issue then you can be 100% certain that the issue is indeed related to Braiins's pool.

I have not encountered this issue with any pool, i.e firmware and pool compatibility issues, only on Nicehash where Asicboost enabled firmware on the S17 needs to be pointed to a certain nicehash URL, also I have tried a few mining proxies and none of them was compatible with all pools, so ya, proxy - pool compatibility is a known issue, firmware - pool not so popular.

Yes, please send it to Talkimage donation address, also I won another price prediction contest in the German section (I asked for the prize to be sent to Talkimage/joker_josue to help maintain the great service).

Thank you again Phill for yet another fun round.

---

Current difficulty status for the new epoch

138 من اصل 193 دولة تعترف بفلطسين كدولة مستقلة, يعني ان الاغلبية العظمى من دول العالم تعترف بدولة فلسطين كدولة.


كلامك صحيح بخصوص العملة ولكن على حد علمي بأن الفلسلطنين لديهم جواز سفر خاص بهم باستتناء عرب 48, يوجد ايضا صور ومعلومات حول هدا الجواز وان 39 دولة تسمح لحاملي الجواز الفلسطين بالدخول لها بدون تأشيرة, مسئلة العنوان هي مسئلة ثانوية فعند استخدامك للمنصة يجب عليك ان تختار بلدك ومن ثم ارفاق صورة لجواز السفر او رخصة القيادة الصادرة من تلك الدولة, يعني انني متأكد بنسبة 70-80% على الاقل ان المستخدمين ذو الجنسية الفلسطنية يقومو بتعريف انفسهم على انهم فلسطينين وليس اسرائلين داخل منصات التداول.

وانا ايضا اعتقد بما انه لايوجد اخبار عن منصات اخرى قامت بحظر حسابات مواطنين من فلسطين يعني على الاغلب انه لايوجد اي منصة اخرى تقبلهم من الاساس باستنناء باينانس.

Okay, so why not implement that concept now?


This is a perfectly valid point, when looking it zoomed-in at first glance it would give you this exact impression, but then regardless of how bad/low we think of these NFTs they are a utility that adds value to BTC in general, and the increased fees are just collateral damage, the same collateral damage that would happen when more and more people start to use BTC for "normal" transactions.

Let's think of all the collectibles in the world, the coin collectibles market is estimated to be worth over 30 billion dollars this year alone, it's all but an imaginary value created by the collectors that the rest of the world doesn't recognize, I personally don't think that some random coin which worth no more than 1 cent scrap value deserves to produce a value of $1000, but sure thing is, those collectors couldn't care less about what I think and this 30B becomes a real value injected into the economy and would benefit the economy of any country that plays a role in it.

For obvious reasons, if you want to use the mail to send a gift to your friend and the mail service happens to be limited and slow, you would have to "wait" or "outbid" those collectors, it would be pretty unrealistic to blame the mail company for it, as it is to blame those collectors and say no the mail service was not intended to be used by these folks to send worthless rusty coins.

That is why you can't really blame the miners for being greedy, besides, it also adds to the security of BTC, the more "value" transacted (regardless of what we think of that value) the more the hash power the economic of BTC can handle.



+1, which is why I don't think that Ordinals and BRC-20 as a concept should be "banned", but rather be used as an incentive to find new and improve current real working solutions that would solve the invadable problems that we will have to face sometime in the future anyway, I don't see that they created a brand new unknown issue -- they simply brought the same issue a little too early.

If everyone would just count on the fees to stay in the 1-2 sat range forever and don't want to contribute or even use/test other methods -- they would face the same faith regardless of the cause, be it NFTs or simply other "normal" users using the blockchain more often.

"legitimate" is rather subjective, technically everyone who transacts on the blockchain is a legitimate user otherwise -- their transactions would not be approved into a block, but what I want to know is, are you upset because other people use the blockchain in a different way that you use it -- or you are upset because fees are high?

If it's the fact that fees are high, then what happens when people start to actually use BTC for everyday life? like buying coffee, tea, paying tolls, or parking tickets, which would also take fees sky high, what is the complaint going to be then? why are these jerks paying for a cup of coffee with BTC raising my fees to send BTC?

Now I'd like to make clear that I am a miner myself, but I am small fish in a big pond, in fact, I am more affected by the fees than any extra profit I could potentially make, but for those large miners why do you think they should care about anybody's feelings? mining is just a business, if someone disagrees with the the way miners handle their business -- they could start their mining operations and include only the category of transactions they want, probably for free, in other words, leave decent money on the table.

See, I am not endorsing any of these stupid NFTs, I think they are completely worthless and I wouldn't buy the most expensive NFT for 10 Sat, but the general effect of this is value being created and transferred around, do I think these guys are stupid? I do, but I can't deny the value they add to the ecosystem, so maybe instead of fighting them -- we could strive to make Bitcoin cheaper to transact for everyone.

Even if we were all to agree to block this BRC-20 transaction -- the main problem won't be solved, it would just be pushed into the future, at one point, even what you call "regular normal" users will fight over the right and wrong transactions.

Bitmain has the most ridiculous modeling out of all the other companies, however, there seems to be something in common between Bitmain and MicroBT which is the weird PSU requirements, the reasons are beyond me, so I am not going to pretend to know exactly why they do this, but to me, it's just plain stupid,  an example of that would be P21E, P222C and P222B PSUs, these three output 14v DC, have the same input range, but all three are not cross-compatible, I did raise the question many times -- but have yet to get a reasonable answer.

I hope they have a good reason that justifies all this nonsense.

Not just that, but also the nature of science, to answer your question one needs to understand (CDF) exponential distribution, it gives you a clue of how often blocks are separated by  by x period of time.

Simply put the equation is exp(- x / mean)*100  where mean is your 10 mins block average time and x is the desired interval you want to solve and *100 is just to get a percentage readable figure.

So if you want to find the percentage of blocks that take 60 or more mins you can do

exp(-60/10)*100 = 0.24% of all blocks are expected to be separate by  60 or more mins

4 hours would be

exp(-240/10)*100 = 0.00000000377513454% which is a terribly small number.

We got the 82th, 86th and 90th, all with more than 300 days warranty left which means they have just left Bitmain's warehouse, , the 140TH is the XP version of the S19 and is a different model, it is pretty normal for Bitmain to still manufacture old gears that they can still sell, also just because they are labeled new and still under warranty -- it does not mean they were recently manufactured, they could been sitting on the shelf waiting for a new buyer.

طمع المنصة في الحصول على دعم او شعبية في الدول الداعمة لارسائيل لا يتعارض مع كونها مجبرة مجبرة على الانصياع الى طلبات الحكومات الغربية بالتحديد, لك ان تتخيل فقط حجم الدمار الذي سيحل بالمنصة في حال اعتماد الولايات المتحدة نظرية ان باينانس داعمة "للارهاب" وفرض عقوبات اقتصادية عليها, هدا سيعني افلاس المنصة وخروجها من الاسواق, انا لا ادافع على باينانس ولكن لك ان تتخيل ان مسؤلين في الدول الغربية تم طردهم من اعمالهم وتوجيه تهم لهم فقط لتعاطفهم مع فلسطين, يعني تخيل ماذا سيحدث لبايناس عندما تكون "داعمة لحماس وتسهيل تحويل الاموال لهم".


هل يمكن ان تعدد لنا المنصات التي تدعم فلسطين؟ هل يوجد اصلا اي منصة تقبل المواطنين الفلسطينيين؟

It has to do with the transaction fee spike, we have not seen this spike since June, and many blocks had fee rewards of over 1 BTC, I can't run the exact math on this now but anywhere around maybe a 6% increase in BTC profitability, which would translate to almost 6% more rewards and thus 6% more expensive hashrate, right now the average transaction is at 40 sat/Vbtye down from 100 just a few hours ago, so I think this spike is about over and nicehash prices should fall soon.

Correct, you can think of it as a football match, if team A is leading by 2 goals at minute 10 team B still has 80 minutes to come back, whereby at minute 80, their chances are a lot less, so the closer we approach the end the better the prediction is, because difficulty just like a football match is only over when it is over.

In fact even the last single alone could in theory bring the pace down a large percentage, just imagine for some reason we get a world wide internet outage for 24 hours, even if all previous 2015 blocks took 10 minutes on average to finish the total time now is 21,590 which would result in roughly -7% adjustment, but the chances of one block taking 24 hours are pretty slim, whereby the chances of 1000 block taking 1200 mins instead of 1000 mins are higher.

I can't speak for those sellers, however,  one thing I can tell you is that brand-new S19s still exist, I have them in stock and I sold a few not too long ago to a forum member, of course, your theory is perfectly valid, some sellers would sell a used miner as new, it's not so hard to fake that.

With that said, it's also pretty normal for Bitmain brand-new miners to arrive in DOA, not hating on Bitmain but given my own experience as a miner and a seller, when I compare Antminers to Whatsminer I can easily tell that Bitmain gears are "shit" at best, the failure rate even for brand miners is high.

A note for everyone, brand miners have 1-year warranty from the day they leave the manufacturer or an authorized seller warehouse, some sellers will fail to sell the miners and keep them in stock long enough for the warranty period to finish, so you MUST always ask about the warranty of the miner you are buying, if it's over, you should at least get it for a decent discount, many sellers count on the buyer's ignorance, they know gears that are out of warranty are worth less but they will still sell them for the original price.


What PSU did you try with?

https://www.zeusbtc.com/ASIC-Miner-Repair/Parts-Tools-Details.asp?ID=306

I believe your miner model would only work fine with APW121215 version A , APW121215 version B or APW121215 version C.

I don't think this would cause a major issue in terms of weight, I have had up to 5 miners on top of each other (not running) sit there for a while, and no damage accused to the chassis, but keep in mind those were different model and they were not running, so no vibration whatsoever

However, May I ask why do you need to remove the wooden plates? I see no good reason for doing so unless you want to have a single inlet/outlet for the whole box, which isn't going to work if say you put them in the middle, the heat coming out from the top and bottom miner will get trapped inside, so the way I see it, those wholes need to be at least the size of the fans and facing the fans for air to move freely, which again, makes me not understand the purpose of wanting to remove those plates.

Nop, too early to judge the pace, we are only half way into the epoch, the current pace is not an exact representation of the hashrate but rather a combination of that + luck, so luck alone is enough to change the current figure, let alone more gears going online/offline.

You could only be somewhat sure of a certain range when say 90-95% of blocks are done with, because then the weight of the left blocks will be pretty small, but with over 1k blocks ahead, we could easily go to 5% or 6%.