This looks about right. Huobi closed > 12 hours underneath short-term and mid-term trends. This still active (Stamp):  so hum, what "should" happen when reaching the end of the triangle? If we reach the end, then this formation is unlikely very useful. Whether we break resistance in either direction (and close above or below) is the question. |
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This looks about right. Huobi closed > 12 hours underneath short-term and mid-term trends. This still active (Stamp): |
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Huobi and Bitstamp:   |
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Looks like on huobi it is below the line - but on stamp, gox, btc-e it bounced from the bottom line. According to the theory the triangle should break in the direction of previous trend - and that is up.
More often, says old wisdom, yes, but they mark trend reversals as well. And that is really in the realm of symmetrical triangles. The formations on Gox and Stamp are markedly closer to descending triangles, which have a bearish bias. |
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not enough bears sacrificing.. whats the dealio.. we out of coins to sell already........bah gox and stamp aren't even playing with Huobi atm
I'm not necessarily expecting a steep drop from here. If we bounce off of prior support and back down, then a slow slide may be cooking. |
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Needs some time for confirmation. 12 hour:  4 hour:  |
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Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.
I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning. The latter started this thread. So, I would say that they are worth mentioning. Apparently you missed when he turned bull a little while back.  It was short-lived, though. My point was that neither perma bulls nor perma bears have "flexibility of mind." Bears do -- otherwise they wouldn't be bears. A perma bear is just a pig. Or a forum troll. |
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Anybody who thinks they have a read on this market better have access to some specific data --> actual cash inflow/outflow into and out of all exchanges, actual volume of off exchange purchases, prototypes and development stages of current bitcoin eco-system products and apps, pending announcements from large retailers, specific EFT approval status, miner sentiment, just to name a few.
If you don't have access to these data points, then you are GUESSING right now not trading. And if you are trading the swings you better have trailing stops.
I get what you're saying. The first two data sets are clearly impossible for virtually anyone to attain. The rest seems to be a claim that fundamental analysis is the only proper analysis. This is obviously at odds with basic premises of technical analysis (e.g. that underlying fundamental factors are reflected in price/volume trends). To each his own, I guess. |
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The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon.  It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange. I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts... I don't understand this mentality. A jump to any sort of high level of price is going to take days and weeks and months. Why not ride it up when it's going up and down when it's going down? There's always time to jump back in. If you don't have the time or desire to pay close attention to the markets, then buy and hodl can be a decent strategy. I don't know, it just makes me nervous going to sleep with a trade open. I'll try to explain. I'm in a bit of an awkward position. I live in Canada. I'm a miner. The only reliable withdrawl method I've found is cavirtex. They charge me 1.5% per trade, so if I try to trade too close to the edge, I will get burned. However, the fiat withdrawls are fast (1 or 2 days) and directly into my bank account; the withdrawls also incur only a flat 6 dollar fee. So, I guess I'm trading as more of a hedge than an opportunity. A miners life for me  Why don't you trade elsewhere and only send coins to Virtex when you want to exit that position permanently? I mainly trade on BTC-E, paying .2% commission. 1.5% is crazy! |
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Ok. But these echo chambers are ridiculous. While the Bulls are the loudest on this forum, they seem to enjoy a flexibility of mind that the bears on this forum don't.
I hadn't noticed. Are we talking about "bears" or "perma bears"? The latter are not worth mentioning. |
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The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon. It is the most frightening thing that exists. It keeps 90% of my coins off the exchange. I'm showing moderate growth in my exchange account, but not enough to merit the risk of being light on bitcoin when this thing erupts... Admittedly, my risk threshold is currently extremely high. I accept that. No more than 25% cold, currently 21%. I entered this market in April 2013 with very little money to put in. I set firm goals for bitcoin accumulation and am well on my way there. If I can make it there..... it's pure hodling from there on out. |
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The fact is that Gox is the best-known exchange and in some senses, is one of the faces of bitcoin. It would not be pretty.
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Since all action is following Huobi, and Huobi is sitting on the 38.2% fib support, I think a small bounce would be in order before a retest and breakout, if downside breakout is coming.
How small of a bounce are you thinking? 4925ish? 5100 is the next fib resistance and ~ intersects with the post-ATH consolidation's moving support. So I wouldn't want to see that broken to the upside. 5000 was the top of the last push, maybe there. |
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Since all action is following Huobi, and Huobi is sitting on the 38.2% fib support, I think a small bounce would be in order before a retest and breakout, if downside breakout is coming.
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Confirmed bad news = confirmed triangle breakdown.
too bad there is no bad news.. FBI private auctioning the bitcoin is a good thing.. we don't have to worry about them having a horde in the future Don't they still have the much bigger wallet? Ulbricht filed a claim for those coins.... |
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Jury is still out, but the bears have a good shot here.  |
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First things first...
Why would you phrase this like this? Do I come off as a permabear? Because I assure you I am not. Of course you don't. I said this because 10 days ago, you wrote, "This rise was not of the bullish type!" I was not sure what time frames we were talking about here. On to my reasoning...
Much appreciated, thank you. |
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How many newly mined coins are being sold off exchange? Prove to me that it is not a substantial amount and I will give your theory more credibility.
Since this clearly can't be proven either way, where does that leave us? |
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I don't see myself going long unless we convincingly break the post-ATH consolidation pattern to the upside. That would currently sit at Stamp $948/Huobi 5550, and Stamp $915/Huobi 5350 in ~ one week. Though the short-term consolidation on Huobi has no bearish bias, the condition of breaking both fib resistances (5060/5100 and 5312), both downtrend lines (8000->5999, 5999->5550) and both of the previous local tops (5500 level, 5150 level) leaves me skeptical that this breakthrough will happen before a downside breakout. If I have to buy back over $950, I may realize a small loss on trades executed since 1/5... but that's okay. It's all about the expected value... If I am wrong, I am hoping that these resistance levels will at least make price movement choppy enough for opportunity to re-assess. The only thing that worries me is the possibility of a straight shot to the moon. |
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