Two consolidation patterns to consider:

Interesting to hear this from you. Regarding this triangle, what gives you the impression of a bullish bias?

Thanks!

$880 very well could have been it, and anyone who exited there made an excellent trade. I certainly sold some there. My initial expectation during the surge was no higher than the $880 level, but I often have to remind myself that bitcoin often simply pushes up one more resistance level than we expect. I think this happens so bears lose as much as possible when they second guess themselves calling a reversal.

Sheng: “Bitcoin is merely a utopia for technology supremacists and absolute liberalists.”

I never caught that. That's not comforting.

Trends were meant to be broken!

Speaking of which, the trend on Huobi is down ~ 50 CNY ($8.50) per day since 11/18.

Not a pennant IMO, based on a few things -- time frame, absence of flag pole, the fact that the first downward wave of the formation broke below previous resistance (i.e. the bottom of the flag pole). The fact that the sharp move that typically precedes a pennant is contained within this formation is another indication that this is a longer term consolidation pattern.

I see a symmetrical triangle, which admittedly is more bullish than the current formations on western exchanges. I would expect a breakout earlier than 3 days based on the wave structure and proximity to the close of the triangle. Much longer and it won't be very reliable.

But I don't see a bullish bias at all.

This is fair. Us tarders take plenty of shit around here, too. 

Ungrateful? What does that even mean in this context?

What kind of market (liquidity) do you see existing without traders? And how do you think this would affect volatility?

I don't think so.

Pennants are generally symmetrical. They are short-term continuation patterns -- the rise from $455 to the resistance break at $837 took 15 days. The rise and consolidation following that break has now taken ~ 2 weeks.

The three bottoms that form the current moving support also generally form the prior resistance level. Typically, the flag pole forms from the prior resistance break (Gox $837). In this scenario, there is no flagpole. A sharp move should precede the pennant; in this case, the sharp move is contained within it.

We're only one hour into this 4-hour chart:

Someone page Ludwig von Mises!

The majority of posts are still choo choo. Price just hasn't gone to the moon along with them.

Personally, I don't find the dynamic particularly adversarial. But I don't take into account the vast majority of posting here. There's a small handful of analysts here that I think provide useful insight on a regular basis. 95% of this forum is trolling etc, and the rest I use to confirm, or compel reassessment of, my position. I wouldn't do that because someone says the price will go up or down; I do it because analysis is compelling -- or because it isn't. Any analysis I post is in the same vein.

I'm of the position that a) very few will take my calls seriously enough to act on them, and b) this forum is too insignificant to matter. But to be fair, even Lucif got burnt and learned this lesson -- surely people attempt to manipulate this way. Still, I think posting positions * here has more to do with the psychological push to be "correct." It's funny -- there have certainly been times when I have posted analysis here and been more excited for it to be correct than I have for the profit to be reaped. Silly, really, but that's ego....

Put another way, I think you would have to be very unintelligent at this point to believe you could move the market by posting on this forum. A few years ago, it was more sensible, but you would have to be quite stupid at this point. Perhaps my mistake is giving too much credit to peoples' basic intelligence.

* drawing a distinction between trolling and analysis

I mean more so that it's sort of a moot point. Obviously if I post a buy/sell target, that's my position. But there is this nagging assertion around here that this is done to manipulate price. That seems absurd to me, but I guess some people put a lot more weight on this forum than others.

Why always "talking book" when someone expresses an opinion...

A year. 2 years. 4 years. LOL.

Regarding tax returns, I find it very hard to believe there is any shortage of fiat ready to enter this market.

Likely or not, I find it is best for my mental health not to delude myself into believing the possible is impossible. I'm not thinking of catalysts in particular -- in fact, I think doing so provides no value. Just noting that trends are trends until they aren't. I get the feeling that many people are so heavily invested in the 4-year bull market continuing uninterrupted, that they might be crippled if it doesn't. And I assure you that at the bottom of a long term bear market, many of the relentless hodlers will have sold having lost immense unrealized gains. I think it's best to have a divestment strategy in place that doesn't wait for the moon to diversify some of your gains. I can't imagine the stress of holding a significant amount of BTC and not having taken out my initial investment (or many times that).

Blitz is right. Many here are very badly prepared psychologically for the event of a long term bear market. Do I expect $100 coins? Lower? No. Is it a distinct possibility, outside of a fatal crash to $0? Yes, unquestionably. Dismissing the possibility out of hand, as many here do, is laughable. Queue log chart, etc. that is supposed to show me that trend break is impossible.....

Please do, and keep us updated! 

Failure swings on 12-hour scale:

Yes but to be fair it is only a 5-minute chart and gives little context.