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581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 11, 2013, 05:09:55 AM
Masterluc, please weigh in on this surprisingly resilient price action but with low volume.  We need some guidance!
The volume is currently 75 at Btcchina and 20 at MtGox and Bitstamp - this is not a low volume.
582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin be surpassed in value by an alternate cryptocurrency and when? on: December 10, 2013, 06:07:33 PM
I am pretty sure that that will happen - but not with the copy-cat coins, mind you. This will happen once someone discovers a new algorithm improving over bitcoin in some critical area. And no bitcoin is not like Internet - you cannot connect a 'proof of stake' algo to the 'bitcoin protocol' running nodes.
583  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bounce is Official on: December 09, 2013, 10:23:54 PM
I smell bull trap. I don't trust this level of optimism after such a quick rebound.

That said, I hope I'm wrong.

The Chinese news was quite wrongly interpreted - I don't consider it too surprising that the price rebound after people realized the confusion. On the other hand the price is bloody high.
584  Economy / Speculation / What is a crash in bitcoin terms? on: December 09, 2013, 08:37:15 PM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigHourlyzczsg2011-05-02zeg2011-06-15ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gRSIzv
10-11-12 Jun 2011 - 70% definitively this was a crash - it was a start of a 3 month long slide down

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigHourlyzczsg2011-05-02zeg2011-06-15ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gRSIzv
10-11-12 Apr 2013 - 80% this was a crash - but it never got lower than the minimum on the 12th

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2012-08-14zeg2012-08-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
18-19-20 Aug 2012 - over 50% (the pirate crash) was this a crash? - it never got lower than the minimum on 20th, stabilized around 10 and then slowly grew untill it started to grow explosively

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2012-08-14zeg2012-08-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
19-10 Nov 2013 - 50% - the recent one - was it a crash? - it quickly recovered and the price soon exceeded the previous ATH


And the current one -
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-12-03zeg2013-12-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
5-6-7 Dec 2013 - slightly over 50% (so far)

Apart from the first one (and the current one that is yet to be seen) - in all of them the lowest price was on the third day and then the recovery started (some times slowly).
585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: December 08, 2013, 05:27:40 PM
I don't know if that was already mentioned in this thread - but there is yet another possibility - I did not sell, because I had sold a day earlier Smiley
586  Economy / Speculation / Re: so glad i bought at 1000 on: December 08, 2013, 10:20:57 AM
Ok. So this is exactly how I figure it would happen. As soon as I buy, its going to go down...  I bought in at 1009. Bought 1.3 BTC ~ 1350 (after fees) With my trading experience I know that its best to keep buying as the stock falls to lower your average share cost.
So I am thinking here, Should I buy 1.3+btc to lower my average cost with the BTC price so low? Think it'll go back up?

If you are 'so glad' - then why you are asking questions?
587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2013, 06:36:46 PM
The bounce backs are not what they used to be.
588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has someone doubled their BTC stash on this correction? on: December 07, 2013, 12:58:23 PM
Correction? What correction? All I see is a -54% crash that's not over yet.
Might be - we'll see. I bought and sold back on the bounce - the weekend is not over yet - but it should bounce at least half or the way on Monday. Which means that there is still opportunity for doubling Smiley
589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has someone doubled their BTC stash on this correction? on: December 07, 2013, 10:11:26 AM
what you saying means have you "halved your coins"  Grin

Sorry - I am not a native speaker of English - I thought that having twice as much BTC is doubling the amount and halving would be the opposite.
590  Economy / Speculation / Has someone doubled their BTC stash on this correction? on: December 07, 2013, 09:55:40 AM
Selling about 1100 and buying back at 550 - doable?

I've sold all above 1100 - but failed to catch it at 550.
591  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitstamp BTC withdrawal not in blockchain on: December 06, 2013, 01:03:19 PM
Looks like finally the transaction got broadcasted about 1 pm (UTC).
592  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 06, 2013, 12:10:04 PM
amazing how pissed people are  Cheesy

I hope I didn't come around as pissed or ridiculing masterluc or bears in general. I am not pissed, I just have a different opinion. I wouldn't mind a bear market for a year or so,... shakes out the idiots that are in the boat "for the wrong reasons" very effectively.


I agree! And while it's hard to say for sure, where the top is, the end of the cycle is nearing.

For those who don't understand what is being talked about in this thread today:
5 waves up and 3 waves down. Here's a fractal of the 2010/11 rise


Now here is the whole history since Bitcoin' inception.


5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
5 up, 3 down...
Back and to the left... Oh wait  Tongue

This coming Bear market CAN stop anywhere between the top and the lowest price ever traded. No, I'm not saying that it'll go that low, but a wave 2 (which happens to be the Bear market after the top we are waiting on) can retrace up to 100% of the preceding wave-1 (which is the entire Bitcoin history)

Now, lets see those horns!  Roll Eyes

Nice - but my bet is that what you mark 3 and 5 is only i and iii Smiley

The waves are just like those leading to 1 only bigger - because we have more people trading and more bitcoins now.
593  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitstamp BTC withdrawal not in blockchain on: December 06, 2013, 10:54:09 AM
The transaction status is 'Finished' already for two hours - but it does not appear in blockchain. I think it used to be immediately after confirming (via the link in the email) that the btc transaction was emitted to the network - but this did not happen this time. Anyone has tried it recently? This was an arbitrage attempt - so the delay can be potentially damaging for me.
594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 06, 2013, 10:36:41 AM
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2010-10-08&e=2011-07-07&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0
We are in a place analogue to the end of February now Smiley
595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 05, 2013, 09:16:02 AM
Does this look like Bitcoin cares about Bearish wedges?

Yes =) Looks like this one got a shot.

I think that the Chinese authorities just played with us this time - they are testing how much control they can have over bitcoin. And they chose a point where a correction was easy to cause.
596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 05, 2013, 08:49:08 AM
China giveth China taketh. Looks like this is the end of the rally.
597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 05, 2013, 06:26:33 AM
The 1000 mark was taken too quickly.  There were many people declaring taking profits at 1000 - I don't think they had time to do that - even on the last weekend dip. So maybe we'll have another triangle bouncing between ATH and the weekends support?
598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 04, 2013, 08:22:01 AM
Yes, the blue line will create the second bounce
Nostradamus, is that you?

Maybe 'will' was a bit to strong. But: It was a top, there was a correction, since bitcoin started trading those wave 3 -> 4 corrections have been 95% wedges of this exact kind. Its like bitcoin love wedges when its rallying. It takes a lot of guts to make such a prediction on a public forum. I'm really putting my head out there for ridicule. Lets see how it plays out. If the bullmaket is strong enough it wont even do the second bounce, it will just penetrate the trend line and continue.

Wedge is different from triangle - at least use the same terminology as the other people here!
599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Thinking about shorting bitcoins right now on: December 03, 2013, 03:05:42 PM
From my short experience, Tuesdays new money arrives and ATH´s get reached. From my short experience, if you have balls, friday/saturday is time to sell. People here are saying "dont ever sell on weekends" but I think exactly the oposit.

This is an astute observation. The weekend dip seems to happen consistently when Bitcoin is in rally mode - you can generally make 20% if you sell on Friday and buy back over the weekend (usually Sunday). This was exactly the same back in April.

Of course, it works like a charm until it doesn't - If you buy back one Sunday only to find it continues on downwards in the week, don't panic. Simply hold and wait for it to go back up in the long term.

Weekends in November:

2 - 3      -      mostly flat
9 - 10    - rally on 9th correction on 10th - overall mostly flat
16 - 17  - rally
23 - 24  - rally with a correction - overall maybe a small dip
31 - 1    - now this was a dip

And the previous big correction was on a Tuesday.

There used to be some more complicated forumla for predicting when the weekend dip will happen - but I don't think it works much better. It is not so easy to earn on these weekend dips.


600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you believe in cryptocurrency competition? on: November 29, 2013, 07:19:01 PM
Litecoin was supposed to be impossible to mine with GPU and ASICs - but the first is already not true and the second is likely to be not true soon. Nearly all of the coins are copycats with little genuine changes - just the meaningless 'faster confirmations'. But I do believe that there will be genuine new algorithms - PPC with proof of stake is a likely example (even though I have read lots of criticism of its algorithm - but I don't know what to trust - there is lots of trolling around alt-coins).
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