Arepo, that's exactly why I said that you had loads of bullshit calls back in April. You're acting on completely same way despite your new "indicators". "We're going up/down in next 8 hours. Nothing happens in next 48 hours.. UPDATE: we stopped going up/down." No shit Sherlock?  All you need is o start another service and it's going to be same as April Yeah, that's not what he said... |
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Just out of sheer curiosity: When is the deadline for the Chinese to evacuate their funds from BTC? I remember it was going to be really soon...
I don't think there is such a deadline. |
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once again i sodl when i should've hodl!
You didn't listen to the clairvoyant traders here who said Overstock news was already priced in, right? The Overstock rally!  |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_evidenceSo, were those who expected the bounce this morning -- absent Overstock news -- wrong? What is your evidence that the news caused the rally? You are suggesting that absent this news, the market would not have rallied. What is your evidence for that? Empirical evidence includes observation (ie past news of China creating crash) I didn't say anyone who was expecting a bounce was wrong. I did not suggest that absent this news the market would not have rallied.  Observation is only the first step. You must empirically demonstrate causation. This, in this case, is impossible. My feeling was that since you assert that the news caused the rally, that the rally would never have come to fruition without it. Hence, those expecting the rally absent news would have been wrong. |
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My comment wasn't relating to the fractal in particular - like I said I was enjoying watching it form!
It was just to point out that the Overstock news caused a mini-rally and that this news was not caused by trader sentiment, a market move, or anything else.
it's funny that you claim to know for sure what caused the move up. i would take the scientific approach and say that the fractal model is sufficient to predict that the price would move up after such a large volume bounce off of the moving support, and so Occam's Razor encourages me to ignore any other data. it is because of this that i believe market forces win against news every time. in fact, i have empirical evidence to support this claim, while you merely assume that it was the news  --arepo You are joking aren't you?  Come on please. If you can't admit simple facts that everyone (including people who can't do maths, geometry, etc.) can see with their own eyes then what's the point? So it is just a coincidence that the Overstock news came online and minutes later the rally (which is still going well) happened? So, were those who expected the bounce this morning -- absent Overstock news -- wrong? What is your evidence that the news caused the rally? You are suggesting that absent this news, the market would not have rallied. What is your evidence for that? |
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I'm not sure why you even bother. Does it really matter whether your recent average price is 400, 600 or 800 when it is most likely going to quintuple digits this year?
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Phew. My buys were underwater for a bit there. Still don't see us rallying much past $907 Stamp if we make it there. Target still at $880 range for me.
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No cup here. No? No. I see what you're seeing, though. |
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No cup here. |
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lawl @ triangle trying to break out on nighttime volume be patient guys, one more tiny swing down then breakout in the morning  Yes I am definitely seeing indications that we'll break to the upside in the short term. Any targets? I'm looking at $880-$907 Stamp give or take (maybe a bit higher, but my exit points are in that area). I still don't feel we'll be re-testing the highs. |
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Anyone care to explain these graphs? Did you try clicking "Explanation" provided by Chartbuddy? 404 |
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Do we quote a bunch of posts from Loaded or something?
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The suggestion is that Huobi's reported volume is fake. It's also been suggested to BTC-E's reported volume is fake. Hmmm..... |
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The current pennant has failure-to-breakout written all over it. Leg down coming up.
You think it's going to break down to 500 on Stamp without news? Without discussing targets, we certainly don't need news to make a big down move at this point. Frankly, I am more or less ignoring news and China. This has worked well for me recently. I think most of the time news follows sentiment, not creates it. However, during this rally only at 1240 and again 2 days ago did the market drop without "some" news. Both times it was severely over bought. It is not over bought right now. Which makes me think there would have to be a trigger to send it down fast. Am I wrong about this? We don't need to be overbought. If we were overbought while making lower highs (eg from 765), I'd probably take it as a bullish sign. And I think while extremely negative news could trigger a sell off, so could exhaustion of buying pressure. Really, the trigger itself is someone trying to force a sell off into weak buying pressure. Whether this actually could initiate a sell off is the question. Looking at the strength of CMF and volatility indicators on this last bounce, I'd be hesitant to say we are ready for a strong down move yet. I think we bounce around a bit first. More consolidation. But my position remains -- down before re-testing highs. |
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The current pennant has failure-to-breakout written all over it. Leg down coming up.
You think it's going to break down to 500 on Stamp without news? Without discussing targets, we certainly don't need news to make a big down move at this point. Frankly, I am more or less ignoring news and China. This has worked well for me recently. |
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Anything to indicate progress in adoption from when we were talking about this 6 months - a year ago?
Actually yes. I have seen some very good reports from the recent Argentine Bitcoin conference. The consensus is they are desperate for this technology and will literally sacrifice their lives for it. That sounds a bit drastic. |
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[...] My position was being steadily adjusted all day Sunday. I had seen enough signals not to wait for the trend to break. At the least, a minor correction was in order -- though I am feeling more bearish than that. I've played two bounces here, mostly for kicks, but my money (outside of cold storage) is generally in dollars while this consolidation plays out. Was just curious what your take was since one of your signals appeared to have triggered. So would you consider yourself a trader (aiming mainly for fiat profits) as opposed to a "trading investor"? I'm just wondering because the thought had of course crossed my mind as well, to sit out the entire correction/consolidation phase in fiat, but to me it seems nearly impossible to do so without taking a hit to your total BTC holding. I mean, say you would have optimally sold at ~1200. How long to wait til you're convinced the correction is over? 1000? 1100? Anything later than that, and your total BTC position is reduced. Which is okay if you're agnostic about BTC's long-term price target, but if you assume that in the long run BTC will worth much more, it all becomes a game of what, I think, Rampion called "land grab". So I don't really feel comfortable sitting it out entirely, only during the most obvious and violent downward movements do I turn (more or less) full fiat. I am not aiming at fiat profits -- not as an end goal, anyway. I am interested in fiat profits in a bear market only to accumulate coins. I didn't mean to say sitting out the entire correction/consolidation phase -- I have been actively trading. I meant the consolidation I expect from the most recent top (995->765). If I weren't working, I'd probably trade more of the small swings -- otherwise I am comfortable in fiat right now. I've got some wiggle room from my last sells and don't expect a re-test of the recent highs in the short term. I've always got cold storage. But it's currently only 25% or probably now closer to 20%. |
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Anything to indicate progress in adoption from when we were talking about this 6 months - a year ago?
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Yes, fee is .2% |
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I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.
Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time? |
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