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1361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2020, 05:15:53 PM
People keep telling me the halving is priced in.

But obviously the miners are living paycheck to paycheck like the rest of the world. They sell as soon as they get bitcoin.

People can pay wholesale prices for bitcoin right now.

At the halving, that wholesale cost will be the same but the miners reward will be cut in half.

One article I read said that 25% of all bitcoins sent to the exchanges are from miners to sell. That amount will soon be cut to 12%. A lot less people selling on a regular basis.
Well, it's pretty simple to figure out. Miners cost money that is amortized over say 12 months. So every month they have to cash in 1/12th of the miner cost plus interest.
Warehouse space is cheap but not zero. And unless they use slaves to tend the miner there are a few of those as well.
Electricity has to cost something. Unless they are stealing power (not going to work for a mine) there have to be costs there.

So either miners close shop after the halving or price goes up. We could lose 50% of the miners and still have insanely high difficulty. We'll see where it goes.
1362  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2020, 03:28:55 PM
And the US stock market just dropped into negative again. Bye bye retirement!
1363  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2020, 02:22:43 PM
My initial theory about this was that the fact that China is communist, and communists being communists a mass killing was due. Communists try to make everyone as equal as the weakest among them.

The more weak people there are, the more it hurts the rest of the population. Solution? Create a virus that kills the weak (wipe out the elderly so you can stop taking care of them).

Congratulations, you're old enough to stop being productive...now die.

Communism is the worst system for protecting the weak.

What I'm interested in is how this affects different groups in the US. For example if it infects everyone but only causes serious damage in old people then there should be a serious uptick in old people deaths in communities that don't take precautions vs communities that do take precautions.

In other words, if Chad the Republican hero gets this and insists on visiting ma and Pa who also believe that this is just a hoax to damage their dear leader then they should have a higher mortality rate than Timmy the Timid Dem who takes precautions and doesn't expose his parents (who would probably shoot him if he approaches).

We'll see. Reality is the ultimate bullshit director, and this could have an impact on communities that define their own subjective realities.
1364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2020, 12:33:07 PM


Hm. This does seem to be a disease that takes out older people. And the response from people with something for an actual brain (ie: experts in this, not dumbfuck pols) seems to be shifting to "protect the elderly!"

I am really curious to see what happens in places like the US and UK.
1365  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Antminer S15 with latest firmware consumes 1900W in lower temp env of 24C on: March 09, 2020, 10:20:39 PM
Unfortunately, when it autotunes, it runs the fans on max, which is when it identifies the pcb temp, and jacks up the voltage.  The only solution I have found with the s15 is to feed warmer air in during autotune (mixed room air and T15 miner exhaust).  Then when set fans take over it keeps the pbc warm enough to avoid that 300w issue, because it checks pcb temps every 30 minutes or so and at any point, if the boards get too cold, it jacks up the voltage.

A custom firmware that sets voltage and freq to static would likely overcome this issue...

My question is why are temps below 25C a problem?
I've been thinking about that: The S15's run at a higher DC voltage (I think it's 20v) than the S9's (12) and have 72 chips instead of 63.

The problem with chips is that as temperature increases, current draw will increase and in a series string you'll have the voltages on chips in different parts of the board go out of sync due to resistance dropping on the chip as temp increases.  When you get up to that many chips in series on that long a board you can run into situations where cooler chips will pull less current than the warmer chips, causing the voltages to go very weird very quickly and possibly blow out the hotter chips.

Thus I'm guessing that Antland wants to run the chips at a min temperature to keep this from happening, especially on startup. In the S9 they did this partially by removing the lower heat sinks on the chips that were most in the coolest air stream (those by the intake fans). For the S15 they run the whole bunch in a less efficient mode to keep the temps up. I wonder if they also implemented per chip clocking to assist with this and keep the board at a more constant temp. Hm.
1366  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 09:46:59 PM


Credit where it is due, this is one motivated woman.
1367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 08:30:58 PM


Anyone remember this chart from back in Feb 2? By now we should be at well over a million dead, what the fuck happened?

Sad.
1368  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 06:41:42 PM
God-fucking-damnit... This bleeding. Just bought more dip @ $7,400... Muh wallet... Going to have to start rationing my powder at this rate...

Sheeeeeeit.
To quote Zed in "Men in Black"

Yeah, Sucks, huh?
1369  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: S15/S17 20% KVAR energy loss on: March 09, 2020, 06:33:38 PM
Just as a side note: I was wondering about the power factor of Bitmain and Halong supplies. So I went out to the lab today and did a quick check:

The Bitmain 1600 was showing a power factor of .99 (highly aligned) at 1,000 watts
The Halong supply from a Dragonmint T1 was showing a PF of .99 as well at 500 watts
HP power supplies (700 watt) units I use for testing also show a PF of .99

By comparison a standard ATX supply shows a PF of about .8 and a Gold/80 specification one will show a PF of about .9.

I don't know if Bitmain put crap power supplies in the S15's, but I would say it's probably worth your while to pick up a power factor meter and see what a sample of your units are pulling. Because a 20% reactance would indicate some pretty crappy supplies or something else wrong in the setup that could be addressed.
1370  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Warm cables/power cords on: March 09, 2020, 05:57:13 PM
I'm using the 1600W power supply from Halong. I'm not sure of their PF?

Interesting, I just got a Dragonmint in here as a reference box for the repairs and it came with a Halong power supply. Damn thing is reading a power factor of 99% at 450 watts (one board, econo mode, 110v input) which is pretty damn good.

Went out and checked two other miners in the workshop: The Bitmain 1600 PSU has a power factor of .99 under a thousand watt load and the HP datacenter power supplies also have a .99 at 600 watt load each. By comparison the ATX cheapo power supplies have around .8 and the ATX Gold/80 certified ones are .9

Moral: Bitmain and Halong may have their own problems, but their power supplies are pretty good. The watts you are pulling match the volt amps that are heating up the cables.
1371  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 05:37:27 PM

Ew.
1372  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 03:03:49 PM
Crap! I pulled all the fiat to buy bitcoins and stuff awhile ago. Need to dip into gold here. Drat-ola.
1373  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 02:55:28 PM
Best part is when daddy finally runs and abandons his family.
Instant divorce reason, imho.

This was from a French comedy, Force Majure if I recall correctly.
1374  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 02:42:10 PM
Trump may still have the trader mentality and he sees this huge dip as a buying opportunity.
It is. For those with fiat (poor souls)


Quote
He also believes there needs to be money pumped into the economy to get things on track...

So...print money and buy cheap stock...he likely believes the virus is all hype so he believes the markets will bounce back (especially after pouring a bunch of printed money into the economy).

Might be right, however if the underlying infrastructure is being damaged due to the responses to this virus it's still going to be a shit-ton of wealth knocked off the table. Kind of like in 2008 when CDO's vanished and a huge hole was placed into M3. The solution then was to print money to fill the hole. Not sure if that's going to work this time.
Quote
Result...billions in gains for the US government. Game over for Democrats.

In his mind at least.

Reality...he is trying to fight a bubble that popped.
How so? Is the Govt going to invest the SS surplus into the market? There is no SS surplus, only a big pile of IOU's....

This is really going to be interesting to watch: What happens when there is a house fire in a grifter hotel....
1375  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 02:35:29 PM
Someone make the bleeding stop already. This is just nasty.
I've switched from munching popcorn to munching pistachio nuts.

This is going to be delicious.
1376  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
Quote
All of us in January when we learned about corona virus...

https://twitter.com/panama_tj/status/1236793863127347200?s=21


They're French ffs!
(pun intended)

When the avalanche has started
It is too late for the pebbles to vote


Old Babylon 5 quote.
1377  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2020, 11:47:24 AM
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1236778368533700609
Anyone who thinks Trump isnt going to attack these market sell offs with everything at his disposal is underestimating his ego and desire to be elected again.

62 days to the Halvening and all fundamentals are well and bullish.  Cool
Sure, but what's he got? I mean he can send the army in to demand that people consume and travel and PRODUCE at the barrel of a gun. He can have traders who sell stocks executed, he can declare it to be treason to say anything but good things about the economy.

Maybe pass the "Stand still" law where no one is allowed to quit their jobs, everyone must consume and produce at 2019 levels, and companies can fire people who then become surplus goods to be "managed". That could work. Sort of.....

(Why yes, I'm re-reading Atlas Shrugged. Man this book is the perfect combination of shit porn, endless speeches, drivel, and interesting concepts.)
1378  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2020, 11:24:32 PM
I'm not a specialist in discussing US politics, but someone from the US please correct me if I'm getting it wrong:

Will the spreading of the coronavirus in the US benefit Sanders against Biden? Sanders is (arguably) the politician from whom I've heard about healthcare improvement the most; IMO, the failure of the healthcare system in the USA at this point will give the old man some extra advantage in his campaign.
Probably not. Sanders is a nutcake in the same vein as Trump. Polar opposite views, but same irresponsible manner. I think people will not want to go with someone who acts in an irresponsible manner when they feel their lives are threatened as a result.

On a related note, apparently they found a guy who tested positive who was at the big CPAC conference 2 weeks ago. This is going to be funny....

Probably hanging with this girl:

1379  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2020, 07:04:54 PM
Look at the prices of medical procedures in the US. One would suppose that capitalism would manage to reduce prices due to competition as it does in most other sectors. But in this particular case it is not happening at all. How do you reconcile US not having universal health care and still having the biggest per person spend? It just doesn't make any sense.
The trick is medical does not have to tell you what the price is, and they can charge whatever they feel like after the fact. Bonus is that if your insurance decides not to cover it, the price is different than if your insurance does cover it but pays nothing towards it.

A perfect example: I take a drug long term. Insurance refused to cover it and wanted me to take something that made me feel like I wanted to kill myself. So I paid for it out of pocket. $350 a month. Even better, it does not go towards your "deductible" because your insurance doesn't cover it.

Doctor tells insurance company to cover it, price goes down to $5.00. Next year Jan I go to pick it up and expect to pay $350. Nope, it's $80 without the deductible filled.

So how much does this drug cost? Is it $350? $80? $5? No fucking clue. Also you can run into drugs that will cost $1500 if your insurance doesn't cover it and $100 if they cover it but won't pay for it because you have to pay 100% cost till deductible met.

Move this to a hospital: They won't tell you how much everything costs up front. Becuase then you might not seek the "best care" but instead only get the care you could afford. Can't have that, now can we?

This is the root of the problem.
1380  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2020, 05:43:08 AM
Thought for the day with BTC at 9100.

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