Looking at the photo, confrontation on sidewalk in Japan, the MtGox owner doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who will do seppuku.
Something is stinking very badly at MtGox. On the 7th I e-registered my MtGox account with fincen, today on the 14th MtGox notifies me my account is flagged for AML. |
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Looking at the photo, confrontation on sidewalk in Japan, the MtGox owner doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who will do seppuku.
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Well, it looks like they already have the hashrate to cover batch 1a. IMHO, batch 1a will be considered late in mid May. As the final batch two was sold to be shipped in quarter two. Batch 1b a month before that and batch 1a a few weeks before that. So in IMO mid May is the latest they can leave it for batch 1a.
Batch 1a was listed as Q1/Q2. It is late on July 1st. Anything else is wishful thinking. I disagree. If the farm is ready by mid March, then I would expect hashing for customers would start almost immediately. I don't think that customers would tolerate anything else. Is it possible that they would first hash on massive power for themselves? Yes, it is possible, but would be wrong on so many levels-it is not even funny. They want to stay in business year after year-you cannot do that if you upset your customers. Hashing totally for themselves is super risky because it opens up for massive losses due to currency/BTC price fluctuation. When is the farm 'ready'? When the first unit goes in? When they have enough hashing power to replicate all Neptunes ordered? Yes I think they will hash for themselves (or sell cloud hashing), why on earth wouldn't they. They've offered you cloud hashing if your unit is late. Late means not Q1/Q2. Yes, I'm sure they're just breaking in those Arctic tower fans. |
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magicmoneyprintingmachine.itis is just getting started. in a lousy economy, the prospect of a magicmoneyprinter will be just too tempting.
I've got a box that I paid about $1700 to build that's generated $1080 after it paid for itself first. No magic, just math... and electricity. Oh, it works good as a heater in winter too. It doesn't replace the day job but at least it's a profitable hobby. Right, unfortunately that's even more tempting to some - the rising difficulty notwithstanding. And once they pay out money for a miner they'll keep it hashing as long as possible for two reasons, it has to make its cost back and btc might hit $40k according to those very rich brothers, also that with increasing difficulty it makes more sense to keep it running in the present rather than shut it down hoping the difficulty will drop. I don't see those things changing. I wonder what percentage of the network hashrate is in homes, garages and backyard sheds and what percentage is in rental or owned commercial facilities as full fledged businesses. |
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fair enough, in that case don't be so lazy, do your own numbers  Lol.. I did, 3 months ago.. 2 months ago.. a month ago.. Several of us did, the folks who didn't preorder, and some folks recently who cancelled. BTC at $1k/USD with a conservative difficulty, Neptunes would never ROI (regain the BTC spent), unless they were delivered by March-April. May pushed you into "youd get most of your BTC back but not all". Beyond that it was just dead weight. This presumed you paid for your electrical costs. Pushing those aside gave you half a month. Some of us had varying estimates for difficulty. Mine presumed 7-10PH would come online before delivery, and I was scoffed at. Not so much anymore eh? So yeah.. love to see the hard numbers which can make them profitable, not just upon delivery, but all year. All the numbers are in a spreadsheet and I'm not aware if this forum's software allows posting a spreadsheet. Even so, it may or may not be a competitive advantage, so consider it a trade secret.
It's not hard to go to your sheets and let us know what your estimates for each month will be for: Difficulty, BTC value. That will dictate ROI. 5 data points would be sufficient. Trade secret? Wow.. alrighty. Your previous Executive-styled post about how all of us were basically off our rockers is one thing, but to claim you know the future of this year based on hard numbers and then to say they're a secret? Definitely puts you in a class of your own. Thanks for the laugh.
No sir, no sir.. thank you!  I wasn't telling anyone they were off their rockers, I was simply stating what I was doing and what my determination was and basically how I arrived there. As to data points, as someone else said, do your own numbers. Interestingly I've been seeing the prediction for the next diff actually decrease over the past week, not increase. That's been a bit of a surprise. Thanks for the confirmation I'm in a class of my own. Friends that have known me for decades would agree with you. magicmoneyprintingmachine.itis is just getting started. in a lousy economy, the prospect of a magicmoneyprinter will be just too tempting. |
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If the BTC price goes to $2000 on Bitstamp during the next 3-10 business days, I will get a lot less BTC  Morale: buying mining gear is a gamble, refunding an order is just as thrilling gamble  Why would it take 3-10 business days to send some BTC? That is a big window in BTC land. maybe because bitstamp BTC withdrawals are frozen till friday? I've been offered the option to refund in BTC at Bitstamp's exchange rate at the moment of the refund taking place. The really weird thing followed shortly after I requested refund on my 3 Neptunes, when they said it will be processed within 3-10 business days. Wasn't aware a BTC transfer might take so long (probably they're typing my wallet address 2-3 characters/business day?) Seems pretty clear to me. Must be another reading comprehension thing. I hope you're inferring that you're having a "reading comprehension thing". arlekyn13 clearly states that KnC is using the bitstamp rate. Not that KnC is buying from bitstamp. KnC is using the bitstamp rate as a reference point to determine value at that moment, much as banks use the LIBOR rate for currency trades the next day. Not complicated. ROFL... right. Like I said...reading comprehension I don't understand why they accept payment via Bitpay and that if they refund via Bitpay why Bitpay would hold itself to respecting the current bitstamp rate. |
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How much work can production be doing without a finalized ASIC or board? They'll probably not be using production workers for building the northern facility as they'd have to relocate for some time. So production is likely turning out Jupiters right now. The modules will be of the new VRM and not applicable to our Merc's, Saturns or Jupiters.
I also thought that KNC do not have any production facilities of their own. I am sure I read that they outsource all the component construction and final assembly as and when they need to. No workers to lay off when times are slack. So, the videos of the guy from down under closing boxes in a building where they were running an SMT machine producing ASIC module boards and assembling units isn't a KnC manufacturing facility? That they farm out controller boards notwithstanding. They probably didn't bend their own aluminum for the cases either. When a company where I worked built printed motors we didn't forge and turn the armatures shafts nor endplates, nor manufacture the alnico magnets but it was a motor manufacturing facility. Not to be argumentative but what I saw constitutes a Jupiter manufacturing plant. |
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How much work can production be doing without a finalized ASIC or board? They'll probably not be using production workers for building the northern facility as they'd have to relocate for some time. So production is likely turning out Jupiters right now. The modules will be of the new VRM and not applicable to our Merc's, Saturns or Jupiters.
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KnC customers have the best gear so far. That speaks to KnC customers analysis of what has been available.
If KnC could track if any of their refunded Neptune fiat this coming week were to go into competitor's mining gear *within a week of refund*, on what and where would they see it spent?
I wonder if there's a manufacturer and sales force that is specifically looking to attract KnC refund money by offering a product that has a profile and price that speaks to KnC refunders. Like if KnC had been working to keep us in their pocket with promises instead of products while at the same time keeping our btc from being spent on the competition, which competing product seems to offer the mirror image of that, providing timely value. Like KnC came on the scene while BFL was showing its true face. |
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KnC customers have the best gear so far. That speaks to KnC customers analysis of what has been available.
If KnC could track if any of their refunded Neptune fiat this coming week were to go into competitor's mining gear *within a week of refund*, on what and where would they see it spent?
I wonder if there's a manufacturer and sales force that is specifically looking to attract KnC refund money by offering a product that has a profile and price that speaks to KnC refunders. Like if KnC had been working to keep us in their pocket with promises instead of products while at the same time keeping our btc from being spent on the competition, which competing product seems to offer the mirror image of that, providing timely value. |
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KnC customers have the best gear so far. That speaks to KnC customers analysis of what has been available.
If KnC could track if any of their refunded Neptune fiat this coming week were to go into competitor's mining gear *within a week of refund*, on what and where would they see it spent?
I wonder if there's a manufacturer and sales force that is specifically looking to attract KnC refund money by offering a product that has a profile and price that speaks to KnC refunders. |
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KnC customers have the best gear so far. That speaks to KnC customers analysis of what has been available.
If KnC could track if any of their refunded Neptune fiat this coming week were to go into competitor's mining gear *within a week of refund*, on what and where would they see it spent?
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so hashrate went up 1/3rd in 30 days?
KNC says it hasn't gone up noticeably at all. I had someone that is working bulk orders with KNC tell me that Sam Cole himself told him that the hashrate will flatten until they are shipping Neptunes as no one will be introducing significant hashrate into the network.. What is worse is this person didn't understand that the network hashrate isn't a secret as the difficulty is tied to it.. It's on track for another 20% at the next turn and has been doing 20%+ for a while, not sure how KNC can say anything like that as it's showing no signs of slowing down. Sounds like he may have been misleading the individuals on purpose, and establishing more of their own made-up reasons not to follow through with their NPS claims. To me it sounds more like NPS reading comprehension is a problem for many in here. and... "Will flatten" acknowledges a continuing rise in Diff .... which also negates the NPS. The diff has risen like over 500% since then... forget about the NPS already, it's done. Holding on to the hope or dream they are going to stop manufacturing for your benefit is silly... They're not in this to lose. and yeah, the diff-rise is no secret... so I totally don't know what the point is.... other than... "hurry up and deliver..." ? or am I reading your post wrong...and you are saying the diffrise says hurry the hell up? Either way, the NPS has been fufilled. Usually I agree with you but did KnC sell a significant quantity of 28nm ASICs or not? If yes then no they did not fulfill their NPS. |
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so hashrate went up 1/3rd in 30 days?
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Is Sunday the day when everyone forgets what bitcoin is about?  the exchanges are in a far more leveraged position to sway the currency than any mining group even if they were mining all 3600 coins each day
Surely you aren't suggesting that if a centralised organisation controlled 100% of bitcoin network, things would work great? That a, let's call it, Central Bank, could be trusted to handle the network fairly for everyone and not manipulate it for easy gain, political reasons etc? That seems to 100% miss the point of why bitcoin was invented. Where the machine is hosted doesn't matter... Selecting the appropriate pool will decentralize BTC mining.
If someone had a massive share of the network hashrate (which is bad), the best things they could do is spread it over "pools" - not "pool" - as many pools as possible. Certainly not putting all that power in the hands of an "appropriate pool" (singular). Although someone in it for the money would probably find the pool where they can make the most and point everything at that, just for sake of profit and damn the fundamental ideas behind bitcoin. Pools are not a great idea, as they centralise and put too much power in the hands of a few. Why was there such a panic a few weeks ago when ghash got so big it looked like they were going to take 51%? Because it's a bad thing. Maybe I've missed the point of what you guys were saying, but it seems to me the best situation for bitcoin is where a massive amount of miners all around the world are controlling the hashrate, not some centralised body, mining group or pool. The fact that very large pools and massive centralised mining monopolies have evolved is just the by-product of greed and not healthy for a decentralised crypto. Nothing to disagree about there. But why then did KnC opt to build a miner that alone would need 15% more current than a US 20 amp circuit can handle. Since US circuits, plug-in, excepting specialized circuits for driers or ovens, take a max of 20 amps they put it out of reach without extraordinary measures, e.g. calling in a licensed electrician to rewire the home. They could have built 20nm miners of a size that draw one quarter the current. Such a design decision, typically won't work in a US home, works against decentralized mining. So, why did they go that way? Come on, tell there's no Santa Clause. |
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Fundamentally, I don't think centralising a decentralised currency is a step in the right direction. I'd say the exact opposite.
It would be have been much better if knc shipped millions of machines out to miners all over the world, spreading the hashing far and wide, so no country has too much power to sway the currency.
Where the machine is hosted doesn't matter... Selecting the appropriate pool will decentralize BTC mining. Exactly what is a 51% attack and how does it win? Say two major isolated pools evolve and one pulls the plug on the other. The remaining major pool now having >51% share of the mining could fork to what kind of advantage? |
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[rambling]
So after your Neptune(s) and Jupiters are worthless, can KnC count on you being a cloudhashing customer? if the offer is looking good, sure, but I doubt it... we aren't quite 1/2 way into q1, and the competition has only just begun to deliver... It would need be a mighty good deal, but I wouldn't be saying this if btc went to 5 grand next month either. That question really can't be answered until the time comes.... TIME. $5000 btc? Well, the world at large saw bitcoin in 2013. Governments saw their fiat dumped into bitcoin when there was trouble at home. Lets say for the sake of argument that a nation's banks own that government. That example of FDIC, created in 1933 to give individuals confidence to take any fiat out from under the matress and trust banks and savings accounts again, that after the crash of 1929 and the great depression of 1930, and then more recently President Bush's people having the laws changed that certain risky instruments get paid off by FDIC first before individuals in the case of a bank failing (likely leaving nothing to pay out to individuals), makes me think that if he could have had a law put on the books making it a legal requirement that the wealthy remain wealthy and the poor remain poor, he would have. In that light, since we are supposing that banks own their governments, and since there is a flow of that government's fiat into bitcoin when there's trouble, governments will make it illegal to buy bitcoin, e.g. Russia yesterday. So, how can a bitcoin ever be worth 173,850 rubles ($5000)? |
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Be nice if they developed and offered only to pre-existing customers 20nm single-module devices, all for the good of diversified bitcoin mining of course.
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I like comparisons but I'm not sure this is valid. Can the question why don't bitcoin mining gear manufacturers mine for themselves, be compared to pharmaceutical companies asking why cure herpes when they can profit from treating the many diseases that result from herpes family viri? Nah, I don't like it. The comparison brings in unrelated elements from fields afar that are too complex.
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Extra "Plan B" hashrate for customers won't mean much if they wait until after Q2 to give it to us.
Now if they give it to us the moment the mega center is complete, then KnC is officially the best company out there hands down.
Hopefully it is turned on in the order the various batches were sold.
Unless they have fabbed out the new 28nm chips already. Then there's no chance of giving us the hashrate by mid-April. Which is when it needs to come online to ROI in bitcoin at current average difficulty growth. Also, I wonder if they'll be using a new IC design for these new 28nm chips. If so and it's more efficient than the old design. Then why don't they offer us to take delivery of the equivalent hashrate with the new 28nm chips. Instead of waiting for the 20nm chips. Just ship us the racks that they'll be hosting I say. If they design new more efficient 28nm chips and boards.
With those numbers... 650 Gh/s x 200/ day is 130Th/s a day.... they could have the entire 3.6 peta-hash whipped out in 28 days, based on OLD numbers.No problem there... The challenge is.... can the data center be erected in time?... probably not... But with the current facility, and a couple smaller temps.... It could be done.... BUT They need to have already started, and not wait until they "know for sure" Neptune is going to be late to dinner.... (Which we all know, they DO know, or the news and announcement would have never been given.) So..... why not?.... they could be leasing any number of buildings, and have not shared any details... 15 mil profit made from Jupiter means they don't even need to touch Neptune money to do it. So all this conjecture and FUD is simply from fear.... and calculation!.... but wait!!! Calculation based on what? Nobody knows what the offer is, or when. It could be 5 th/s hosted beginning in April hosted for a year or until Neptune ships... The simple fact is we don't know! We made boo-coo from the Jupiter...and they are still pumpin' (Some miners better than others)so give them a chance.... they are honoring refunds, and you will kick yourself in the ass if the offer is a good one, and you bailed already.... especially if you've been cashing out your coin as you made it, or on high-points.. and coin goes to 2 grand or above.... and calculating profit based on BTC return is ludicrous, because no calculator can show us ROI in BTC on ANY miner ANYWHERE, anytime soon. Just sayin' Either way... whatever you decide... Good luck. I agree we don't know. One might suspect the non-exact nature of the Plan B is to trigger refunds leaving those earlier order numbers free to take for its own farm. A linear increase from returns in the first week Dec to the first week in Feb continued to the _first week in June_ shows an impossibly low mining return for the cost but luck in the last week hasn't been good and that could have fudged the plot. Also, the plot might not continue in that linear progression as it's been exponential so far not linear. But the falling return has to take a toll on the sale of new miners. But new KnC miners did pay off. But the comparison of the return of a new Merc when it arrived to its harvest now even having an additional board is stark. And the linear plot continued to the first week in June shows a 3.6THs Neptune harvesting less than the pseudo-Saturn at present, not less than the Merc when it first arrived but less than the pseudo-Saturn at present. So that hashrate climb cannot continue unabated. or can it? I'm not confident it won't, after all these are magic money printing machines that anyone can buy. |
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