Martin Armstrong Discussion

[MF Doom]

could it be that there are some "insiders" driving up the btc price currently, related to Armstrongs prediction of financial/political chaos coming in Q4 of this year (ie right now)?

[jehst]

Armstrong is a macro guy. he's tracking capital movement of billions and trillions. Something like bitcoin can completely go nuts based on a a few individuals buying or selling 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin. We shouldn't be surprised by anything bitcoin does. It can decouple from the macro movements because it is still too small and volatile. The USD might appreciate 20% against bitcoin because of macro factors that Armstrong is correct on, but we're in the situation where a relatively small amount of capital can move bitcoin up or down 100%. I'm far more likely to pay attention to this macro capital movement stuff when trading big currencies like the British pound or stock indexes like the S&P. Bitcoin can go off the reservation at any time.

[bitrider]

Armstrong is a macro guy. he's tracking capital movement of billions and trillions. Something like bitcoin can completely go nuts based on a a few individuals buying or selling 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin. We shouldn't be surprised by anything bitcoin does. It can decouple from the macro movements because it is still too small and volatile. The USD might appreciate 20% against bitcoin because of macro factors that Armstrong is correct on, but we're in the situation where a relatively small amount of capital can move bitcoin up or down 100%. I'm far more likely to pay attention to this macro capital movement stuff when trading big currencies like the British pound or stock indexes like the S&P. Bitcoin can go off the reservation at any time.

This. I have a strong trust in Armstrong's overall read of the cycles & big capital flows. But BTC is still very small and its volatility is probably separate (and mostly uncorrelated) from broader macro moves. At least for the next year or so.

[suda123]

could it be that there are some "insiders" driving up the btc price currently, related to Armstrongs prediction of financial/political chaos coming in Q4 of this year (ie right now)?

Same thing I was thinking, I read some content that said the events did happen but come at a pause then fall a month later on.

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong is a macro guy. he's tracking capital movement of billions and trillions. Something like bitcoin can completely go nuts based on a a few individuals buying or selling 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin. We shouldn't be surprised by anything bitcoin does. It can decouple from the macro movements because it is still too small and volatile. The USD might appreciate 20% against bitcoin because of macro factors that Armstrong is correct on, but we're in the situation where a relatively small amount of capital can move bitcoin up or down 100%. I'm far more likely to pay attention to this macro capital movement stuff when trading big currencies like the British pound or stock indexes like the S&P. Bitcoin can go off the reservation at any time.

This. I have a strong trust in Armstrong's overall read of the cycles & big capital flows. But BTC is still very small and its volatility is probably separate (and mostly uncorrelated) from broader macro moves. At least for the next year or so.

Indeed. But liquidity contagion...

I concur that you predicted $315 in May and that you believed there was the possibility of it going to $440.

...

(currently $495)

This $380 - 440 was a near-term technical projection (target to be reached before roughly Oct 1 afair if it did, otherwise new technical projections would be required) on a chart and has nothing to do with Armstrong's model for a low in gold this coming Spring 2016. Also that technical projection may have increased by now (Nov. 5).

The price is going crazy volatile now if it was up to $495 while I was sleeping and then below $400 when I woke up.

Coinbase announced they are supporting the BitcoinXT block size increase in December. Rumors China will make Bitcoin legal. And the CHKLOCKVERIFY opcode to enable Lightning Networks has been moved into the Bitcoin code and to be a reality no later than early 2016.

Bitcoin could be diverging from gold. It is possible especially considering it is an orthogonal global speculation vehicle. Armstrong has documented yesterday that some stock markets appeared to have bottomed on his Oct 1 (2015.75) turn date.

The theory that Bitcoin would mimick Armstrong's gold bottom timing was my guess, not Armstrong's.

However, the liquidity contagion has not yet hit the sovereign debt crisis. Thus speculation is renewed. Let's see what happens to liquid assets such as gold and cash (Bitcoin) once there is a liquidity crisis. Also this pump would be a great manipulation for those who did it so they could borrow BTC to go short.

This nosebleed rise has all the markers of a pump and dump job.

If I had enough $ to speculate with, I would go leveraged short at $500. Alas, I am just converting BTC to USD so I can be sure I have the cash to pay my bills so I can code an altcoin.

[sidhujag]

I guess you lost your friendly bet with me when you said last month btc would start to fall to double digits (initially it did fall) and i took the opposing view just because you believed it so strongly i couldnt resist I guess you like armstrong should stick to macro views which you may actually be good at and let randomness take care of short term swings huh?

[suda123]

I guess you lost your friendly bet with me when you said last month btc would start to fall to double digits (initially it did fall) and i took the opposing view just because you believed it so strongly i couldnt resist I guess you like armstrong should stick to macro views which you may actually be good at and let randomness take care of short term swings huh?

Its not over yet lol

[hdbuck]

could it be that there are some "insiders" driving up the btc price currently, related to Armstrongs prediction of financial/political chaos coming in Q4 of this year (ie right now)?

pre-auction casual pump.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg12889118#msg12889118

[OROBTC]

...

Armstrong publishes a relevant piece for people here (and at Economic Totalitarianism).

"Yellen Tells Congress Negative Interest Rates Are Possible"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38983


Janet Yellen told Congress:

“Potentially anything – including negative interest rates – would be on the table. But we would have to study carefully how they would work here in the U.S. context.”

Um, how is it that the head of the Federal Reserve (NOT part of the US government, the "Fed" is privately owned, not only that the ownership is secret or at least obscure) tells CONGRESS what the direction of monetary policy should be?

Armstrong also notes that "negative interest rates would wipe out the elderly."  NIRP may not wipe them out, but with NO INCOME (or even negative income for cash in the bank), it would hurt a lot.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Armstrong also notes that "negative interest rates would wipe out the elderly."  NIRP may not wipe them out, but with NO INCOME (or even negative income for cash in the bank), it would hurt a lot.

Like MA says, it will cause the next pension crisis. Will be interesting to see from a personal perspective how it affects the Netherlands system, which is one of the wealthiest pension systems on earth.

[RealBitcoin]

Armstrong also notes that "negative interest rates would wipe out the elderly."  NIRP may not wipe them out, but with NO INCOME (or even negative income for cash in the bank), it would hurt a lot.

Like MA says, it will cause the next pension crisis. Will be interesting to see from a personal perspective how it affects the Netherlands system, which is one of the wealthiest pension systems on earth.

Nope, they will not wipe them out.

They will wipe us out, since we who have savings in our banks, will be looted , to pay the pensioners.


It will be massive rationing on welfare, and those who have above the average, will get a haircut

[tabnloz]

Armstrong also notes that "negative interest rates would wipe out the elderly."  NIRP may not wipe them out, but with NO INCOME (or even negative income for cash in the bank), it would hurt a lot.

Like MA says, it will cause the next pension crisis. Will be interesting to see from a personal perspective how it affects the Netherlands system, which is one of the wealthiest pension systems on earth.

Nope, they will not wipe them out.

They will wipe us out, since we who have savings in our banks, will be looted , to pay the pensioners.


It will be massive rationing on welfare, and those who have above the average, will get a haircut

It "wipes out" the elderly as it costs to keep cash in bank and they now live longer and longer but cannot generate the returns to last. Pension funds need yield of some sort to pay out their obligations. Long term Treasury yields no longer offer much more than inflation (whereas the 30 year note from the 80's was well over 10% iirc) and short terms are basically negative all over up to 5 yrs - many countries obligate their pension funds to invest a percentage in these markets.

edit: this means increase in taxes to everyone else.

[RealBitcoin]

It "wipes out" the elderly as it costs to keep cash in bank and they now live longer and longer but cannot generate the returns to last. Pension funds need yield of some sort to pay out their obligations. Long term Treasury yields no longer offer much more than inflation (whereas the 30 year note from the 80's was well over 10% iirc) and short terms are basically negative all over up to 5 yrs - many countries obligate their pension funds to invest a percentage in these markets.

edit: this means increase in taxes to everyone else.

People forget (since nobody is 300 years old that lives) that pension funds are only needed in an inflationary economy.

Yes people are dumb and cannot invest correctly, so you need to rob them and invest that money for them, via a pension system.


However in a deflationary economy, you just sit on your money and it goes up in value. You put away some money in your 20's and it will last till you are 90, and gain in value in the meantime.

If people started saving in BTC @ 1 $ / bitcoin, you just made a 4000% ROI of your savings (in a 10% bitcoin inflation enviroment)


Bitcoin will really give back power to the savers.

[sidhujag]

The problem is retail spending dries up to only use it when they have to.. so it will have a big affect on the current financial world but turning it upside down. Most
banks insolvent.

[altcoinUK]

Interesting to see the back and forth of the market around the DJIA 17,500. That is Armstrong's latest resistance and weekly closing threshold in relation with a possible drop and then slingshot move.

On an other note, I have been reading David Stockman's blogs and pieces. It is quite a lot similarities between Armstrong and Stockman. Though Armstrong's latest posts on the FED clarifies what he thinks about the FED. It seems he is right again: not the FED is the problem but the US Congress that delegates the responsibility of its infinite money spending by allocating the money creation to the FED. Thus we blame the FED while the US congress (or in fact the UK government in the case of UK) is the source of the problem.

[TPTB_need_war]

Macsga, regarding our up thread theoretical discussions, Armstrong adds some information:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39270

A number of people have been writing in to say how they just discovered the mathematical constant π (pi) in a quantum mechanics formula for the energy states of the hydrogen atom. This is truly astonishing proving this is a fundamental cornerstone of nature.

While I discovered the existence of pi in the business cycle, it has been widely discovered in many other fields. What this proves is precisely what I have been saying all along — there is an interesting order being masked as chaos. This hidden order is fundamental to everything. This hidden order behind chaos or the appearance of randomness has led many to assume that the world is subject to our will, and therefore, we can manipulate everything to do as we desire, including the economy (Marxist-Keynesianism). This is just not true. There is a hidden order behind everything if we just explore.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39366 ("Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions & the Economic Confidence Model" (ECM))

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39339 ("phase transformation is not a linear progression, but a final burst of energy")

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39461 (nuclear fission vs. fusion)

[HardForkComing]

I watched his documentary a few months ago. This man is a genius.
It's sad what he went through.

[macsga]

Macsga, regarding our up thread theoretical discussions, Armstrong adds some information:

I've been monitoring this progress all the way since they first announced it (and a bit before to be honest through academic sources). Pi is a Transcendental Number like the Chaitin's Constant (or Ω constant), Hermite (e), Komornik-Loreti Constant to name a few. Chaos, though has been mathematically tightened to the Lorenz Attractor, which in essence represents a trajectory of ellipses (or circles).



Circles (and ellipses) incorporate pi.


Funnily enough, chaos is also a fundamental aspect of QM since under the innocuous h (Planck's constant) radius, uncertainty (aka: chaos) prevails over certainty (order) for measurements. If you take into account that in the very beginning (aka: Bing Bang) all started within a {space} < h then you can realize why pi is closely tightened to it.

So, even if you logically test it, and leave mathematics aside, chaos indeed incorporates pi.

[TPTB_need_war]

Macsga, regarding our up thread theoretical discussions, Armstrong adds some information:

When I have more time for theoretical physics, I will attempt some more quantifying work. For now I have this:

http://unheresy.com/The%20Universe.html#Matter_as_a_continuum

And for example look at how when I tried to model probabilities of two relative distributions, the problem space becomes hyperbolic.

[altcoinUK]

Here we go.

Armstrong pointed out several times in the past that governments simply won't allow using digital currencies. Armstrong argued that once digital currencies start interrupting the tax collection system then governments will act. It seems the governments indeed start acting.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39715

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/19/us-france-shoooting-eu-terrorism-funding-idUSKCN0T81BW20151119#O5TVOC4VyQ3B2QFj.97