Cricket match prediction discussions

[Sithara007]

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In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

[JSRAW]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

As mentioned in my previous post that Hotstar does have a monopoly in OTT market, close to 60 Million paid subscribers so no argument there whatsoever.

Let me put it this way, why i think they overpaid (not saying that they can't make money, just focusing on overpaid issue)

- Do you think that casual or even hardcore cricket fans watch every match in the ICC tournament? 99.99% would say no because fans love to watch their respective team (sometimes they even miss the action) and marquee, knockout encounters like Semifinals/ Finals.

-There are total of 179 matches in 4 ICC tournaments and India is playing 26 matches in 4 ICC tournaments then we have additional 8 semifinals and 4 finals (knockouts).

- From the broadcaster's point of view if they are targeting the Indian market only, then they have only 26 (Ind) + 8(Semis) + 4(finals) = 38 Important matches out of 179 in the ICC tournaments.

- If we look at important matches only (38) then according to $3.02 Billion bid it every match is worth close to $80 Million.

- And if we are looking at every ICC match which is 179 then every game is worth approx $16.8 Million. Point to note that 1 IPL match worth is $13-ish million, that's a recent benchmark.

Remember 179 - 38 = 141 non India/ non knockouts.

Now tell me which broadcaster will pay close to $17 million bucks for Aus vs SL, Pak vs SL, SA vs BAN or even Eng vs Aus for Indian or any market?

[Sithara007]

^^^ IPL can't be compared with ICC tournaments such as ODI World Cup. First of all ODI matches last for 100 overs, while the IPL matches last only for 40% of that much. And also, IPL season is too long (2.5 months). Even the hardcore fans don't follow all the matches. On the other hand, World Cup usually lasts for less than a month, and fans like me follow most of the matches. And it is wrong to assume that an average cricket fan will be equally interested in all the IPL franchises. He will be having one or two favorite franchises and will be more interested in their matches.

[JSRAW]

^^^ IPL can't be compared with ICC tournaments such as ODI World Cup. First of all ODI matches last for 100 overs, while the IPL matches last only for 40% of that much.

Sounds like you are changing the goalpost by cherry-picking. We are talking about the economics of cricket and IPL is a recent example that's why I used that as a reference. ICC calendar has only one 50-overs tourny (India is playing 9 matches), 2 tournaments are T-20 format and probably they will go same with the champions trophy (not sure about format but India is playing 3 matches in group)

And also, IPL season is too long (2.5 months). Even the hardcore fans don't follow all the matches. On the other hand, World Cup usually lasts for less than a month, and fans like me follow most of the matches. And it is wrong to assume that an average cricket fan will be equally interested in all the IPL franchises. He will be having one or two favorite franchises and will be more interested in their matches.

That's exactly my point that fans hardly follow a complete tournament and stick to their fav franchise/country. It's equally true for ICC tournament.

Even dead rubber IPL matches generate average 5 million viewers in Hotstar. I hardly doubt that will be the case for every WC match, unless it's India or knockout fixtures. Just to give you an example Ind vs NZ WC semi-final witnessed 25 Million viewers at its peak, in comparison to the famous final Eng vs NZ, it barely touched 5 million that too with super over.

IDK about you or others but I don't see any logical reasoning when I see $17 Million per game in WC (This rate will go down drastically like $2-$5 million soon when the complete bidding process finishes tho) and when we count different timezone for 2 WC then It gets worse. I've presented all the numbers and it's available in the public domain for everyone to see.

IMO The best solution ICC could come up with is to organize main fixtures around Indian friendly timezone and I am sure Disney will try to push for it. On the other hand, Disney will also hope that these Indian WC match + WC Knockouts + IPL Knockouts keep their existing subscription base intact.

[Sithara007]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

[Theones]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

Has anyone seen Kohli speech today after the match - he looked very different and very serious person.
An I the only one who has noticed that -or others felt the same way.
Asia cup has taken the social media like strom - is it the same in your country?

[jostorres]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

Has anyone seen Kohli speech today after the match - he looked very different and very serious person.
An I the only one who has noticed that -or others felt the same way.
Asia cup has taken the social media like strom - is it the same in your country?

Right now, all cricketing community specially Asians are talking about this Asia Cup with exit of India and Pakistan vs Afghanistan things happened after end of the match are brought this all in more limelight and now in last match kohli's century after more than 1000+ days is also giving some good masala to all peoples which is good for the Team India as now they are going to prepare for T20 world cup which is going to play after two months in Australia, and they are going to face against Pakistan in their first match which is going to be more interesting after this 1 - 1 end in this Asia cup.

Sri Lanka performance is also good as now they are going to face Pakistan on Friday and then Sunday, but today Indian performance give good idea about their preparation for world cup as they are still able to outclass any bowling lineup which causes problems for other teams, and they are still good and strong for the title in Australia.

[Sithara007]

Looks as if Nepal's most popular cricketer has landed himself in trouble:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/sandeep-lamichhane-suspended-by-nepal-board-after-arrest-warrant-issued-against-him-1333676

A 17-year old girl has accused him of raping her and as a result Sandeep Lamichhane has been suspended by Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN). Currently he was participating in the CPL competition, but his franchise (Jamaica Tallawahs) have announced that they are releasing him immediately and he will be leaving for Nepal today. The alleged incident happened three weeks ago, and I am not sure why the complaint wasn't filed till now. Rape laws in Indian sub-continent are frequently misused by females and I just hope that it is not the case this time.

[jaberwock]

Looks as if Nepal's most popular cricketer has landed himself in trouble:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/sandeep-lamichhane-suspended-by-nepal-board-after-arrest-warrant-issued-against-him-1333676

A 17-year old girl has accused him of raping her and as a result Sandeep Lamichhane has been suspended by Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN). Currently he was participating in the CPL competition, but his franchise (Jamaica Tallawahs) have announced that they are releasing him immediately and he will be leaving for Nepal today. The alleged incident happened three weeks ago, and I am not sure why the complaint wasn't filed till now. Rape laws in Indian sub-continent are frequently misused by females and I just hope that it is not the case this time.

In Sub-continent these are mostly misused which is really matter of shame because we have too many cases in past as well where things were happened with mutual understanding and the suddenly it's appear that girl or woman complain about rape authorities needs to do better strategy for this because this is surely going to have big problem for player like Sandeep Lamichane as now his contract with Jamaica Tallawabs is under threat and his reputation is already damaged badly which is not recoverable in any case.

If this happened three weeks back then why they lodged complaint after long time it's surely a big dilemma and need to go with this fairly and investigations needs to be started this why this girl waste three weeks for lodging this complaint.

[Sithara007]

^^^ I don't know what will happen to him now, but Sandeep Lamichhane was the only player in the Nepal squad with international franchise league experience. If he is suspended, then it will negatively impact their fortunes. Already they are performing poorly against squads with 100% foreigner composition such as Kuwait, Singapore and Hong Kong. Nepal is a cricket crazy country, but recently the national team's performance has been very disappointing. This latest incident is like rubbing salt to an open wound.

[Maady]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

As mentioned in my previous post that Hotstar does have a monopoly in OTT market, close to 60 Million paid subscribers so no argument there whatsoever.

Let me put it this way, why i think they overpaid (not saying that they can't make money, just focusing on overpaid issue)

- Do you think that casual or even hardcore cricket fans watch every match in the ICC tournament? 99.99% would say no because fans love to watch their respective team (sometimes they even miss the action) and marquee, knockout encounters like Semifinals/ Finals.

-There are total of 179 matches in 4 ICC tournaments and India is playing 26 matches in 4 ICC tournaments then we have additional 8 semifinals and 4 finals (knockouts).

- From the broadcaster's point of view if they are targeting the Indian market only, then they have only 26 (Ind) + 8(Semis) + 4(finals) = 38 Important matches out of 179 in the ICC tournaments.

- If we look at important matches only (38) then according to $3.02 Billion bid it every match is worth close to $80 Million.

- And if we are looking at every ICC match which is 179 then every game is worth approx $16.8 Million. Point to note that 1 IPL match worth is $13-ish million, that's a recent benchmark.

Remember 179 - 38 = 141 non India/ non knockouts.

Now tell me which broadcaster will pay close to $17 million bucks for Aus vs SL, Pak vs SL, SA vs BAN or even Eng vs Aus for Indian or any market?

If what you say is true and your numbers are correct then ICC is not taking care of small accociate members. It is like 15-20x yearly budget for us small counties.

[WatChe]

There is good development for Pakistan, Muhammad Hasnain is bowling at 150 kph with his new bowling action. He is also taking wickets in current tournament that tells the story that he can bowl with his new bowling action. He is just 24 years old and with shaheen Shah he can serve Pakistan for 10 years atleast.

[JSRAW]

~snip~

If what you say is true and your numbers are correct then ICC is not taking care of small accociate members. It is like 15-20x yearly budget for us small counties.

Tbh I have no idea the amount of associate nations are getting from the ICC right now but I agree they can't expect more because the last time I heard back in 2015 or so it was like a million or so, that's a fucking joke and criminal imo.

No wonder cricket is not spreading quickly as it is supposed to be.

[Rigon]

There is good development for Pakistan, Muhammad Hasnain is bowling at 150 kph with his new bowling action. He is also taking wickets in current tournament that tells the story that he can bowl with his new bowling action. He is just 24 years old and with shaheen Shah he can serve Pakistan for 10 years atleast.

Every pace king comes out of Pakistan. Currently Pakistan team is performing fairly well.Muhammad Hasnain bowls at a speed of 150 km, we can say that the speed is very complete and unusual.And the wicket he is taking in the current tournament is really commendable And the story seems to be.And he is doing all these performances at the age of 24. I always pray to go further and do better in the future.

[Theones]

~snip~

If what you say is true and your numbers are correct then ICC is not taking care of small accociate members. It is like 15-20x yearly budget for us small counties.

Tbh I have no idea the amount of associate nations are getting from the ICC right now but I agree they can't expect more because the last time I heard back in 2015 or so it was like a million or so, that's a fucking joke and criminal imo.

No wonder cricket is not spreading quickly as it is supposed to be.

Have anyone notices - Kholi has regained his strength?
Although India has not been able to make to finals but they have got their legend back - and the legend is the real legend.

[Sithara007]

Tbh I have no idea the amount of associate nations are getting from the ICC right now but I agree they can't expect more because the last time I heard back in 2015 or so it was like a million or so, that's a fucking joke and criminal imo.

No wonder cricket is not spreading quickly as it is supposed to be.

There are two different factors.

1. The funding for associate members were reduced from $62.5 million per year in 2007-15 cycle to $20 million per year in 2015-23 cycle ($20 million was a compromise after Srinivasan-Pawar mafia proposed zero funds for the associate nations in 2014).

2. The eligibility rules were changed, allowing countries to form teams with 100% foreigners. This benefitted Oman, UAE.etc, and they now receive a greater share of funds. Adversely affected countries with native players such as Nepal and Argentina. They are unable to win matches and therefore receive a smaller share of the funds.

For countries such as UAE, the decrease is not very significant. They receive almost the same amount of funds that they used to receive before 2015. But for countries fielding native players such as Kenya, Thailand, PNG and Nepal, the funds that they now receive is around 10% of what they used to get before 2015. And it is not surprising that cricket is dying in these countries.

[coinerer]

There is good development for Pakistan, Muhammad Hasnain is bowling at 150 kph with his new bowling action. He is also taking wickets in current tournament that tells the story that he can bowl with his new bowling action. He is just 24 years old and with shaheen Shah he can serve Pakistan for 10 years atleast.

Every pace king comes out of Pakistan. Currently Pakistan team is performing fairly well.Muhammad Hasnain bowls at a speed of 150 km, we can say that the speed is very complete and unusual.And the wicket he is taking in the current tournament is really commendable And the story seems to be.And he is doing all these performances at the age of 24. I always pray to go further and do better in the future.

It is very easy to say that Pakistan is a factory producing fast bowlers. It can be said that Pakistan is the origin of the best bowlers in history. Here I would like to mention the names of some fast bowlers who are very familiar faces. Wasim Akram, Waqar Younis, Imran Khan, Fazal Mahmood, Shoaib Akhtar, Sarfraz Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Asif, Umar Gul, Aaqib  and Javed everyone is born from Pakistani cricket.

[Ayers]

Tbh I have no idea the amount of associate nations are getting from the ICC right now but I agree they can't expect more because the last time I heard back in 2015 or so it was like a million or so, that's a fucking joke and criminal imo.

No wonder cricket is not spreading quickly as it is supposed to be.

There are two different factors.

1. The funding for associate members were reduced from $62.5 million per year in 2007-15 cycle to $20 million per year in 2015-23 cycle ($20 million was a compromise after Srinivasan-Pawar mafia proposed zero funds for the associate nations in 2014).

2. The eligibility rules were changed, allowing countries to form teams with 100% foreigners. This benefitted Oman, UAE.etc, and they now receive a greater share of funds. Adversely affected countries with native players such as Nepal and Argentina. They are unable to win matches and therefore receive a smaller share of the funds.

For countries such as UAE, the decrease is not very significant. They receive almost the same amount of funds that they used to receive before 2015. But for countries fielding native players such as Kenya, Thailand, PNG and Nepal, the funds that they now receive is around 10% of what they used to get before 2015. And it is not surprising that cricket is dying in these countries.

i believe that ICC did such a thing (reducing the amount that the associate teams are getting from the ICC) because they were not generating revenue from these associate countries
i think if it was any other sports body they actually would have tried to find a way to make the teams play better and eventually generate a lot more revenue from them

but the problem is ICC tried to take the easy way out, and they just decided to not invest more money where they are not getting revenue from
obviously, this action had some reaction, the rich countries have benefited greatly from this, and the poor countries are the ones to suffer
this reaction was possible for another reason, which is being able to form the national team with foreigners, that further decreased the quality of poor teams

[SirLancelot]

i believe that ICC did such a thing (reducing the amount that the associate teams are getting from the ICC) because they were not generating revenue from these associate countries
i think if it was any other sports body they actually would have tried to find a way to make the teams play better and eventually generate a lot more revenue from them

but the problem is ICC tried to take the easy way out, and they just decided to not invest more money where they are not getting revenue from
obviously, this action had some reaction, the rich countries have benefited greatly from this, and the poor countries are the ones to suffer
this reaction was possible for another reason, which is being able to form the national team with foreigners, that further decreased the quality of poor teams

This talk is going to be long because right now if ICC is going to do any decision like if they have no enough funds then they are not going to help them surely this could be disaster because they will lose good amount, and they could be not able to run their system which is very important for this game they need to work on like FIFA where they are providing funds to all countries and helping them for having better structure and quality which is very important for them even FIFA is very big, and their income is also much ahead from ICC but here they also can increase their income, but they need to do work on this with positive mind set.

Just helping B-4 is never been going to increase this game's popularity and income most of the time if they are just thinking about India and IPL then surely it's going good way for having better sources of income go ahead and do better marketing and spread this game with just T-20 format which is the best way of income for them right now.

[Sithara007]

This talk is going to be long because right now if ICC is going to do any decision like if they have no enough funds then they are not going to help them surely this could be disaster because they will lose good amount, and they could be not able to run their system which is very important for this game they need to work on like FIFA where they are providing funds to all countries and helping them for having better structure and quality which is very important for them even FIFA is very big, and their income is also much ahead from ICC but here they also can increase their income, but they need to do work on this with positive mind set.

Just helping B-4 is never been going to increase this game's popularity and income most of the time if they are just thinking about India and IPL then surely it's going good way for having better sources of income go ahead and do better marketing and spread this game with just T-20 format which is the best way of income for them right now.

A lot of focus has been on the BCCI and their demands for more funds. The Indian board has softened their stance, after the Srinivasan-Pawar mafia was kicked out. Now they are in favor of Olympics inclusion and more sympathetic towards the associate nations. But at the same time, no one really talks about the discrepancy within some of the lower ranking test nations. There is no justification for Zimbabwe receiving $12 million per year from the ICC, while teams such as Nepal receive only around 2% of that amount.

Test status should not be permanent. There should be a promotion-relegation system, where lower ranking teams such as Zimbabwe should play against top ranking associate nations such as Scotland to retain their test status.