Cricket match prediction discussions

[laurenB7742]

Yeah, they sub-licensed rights to the Zee. I guess they already had some back-door talks with the Zee before the auction took place and now looks a good deal. Having said that considering 2nd,3rd, 4th bidding everyone would still say that Disney overpaid.
Some could also argue that Disney played their cards rights and didn't go along with other broadcaster agenda, which was to take auction to e-auction.

The intention from Reliance and others was to take it to the second round (e-auction). In order to avoid it, Disney-Star had to make sure that there is more than 10% difference with the second ranking bid. And IMO, I don't think that they overpaid by much. If the 5-year IPL bid can go for $6 billion, then I don't think that $3-4 billion for 4-year ICC deal is overrated. ICC tournaments have their own aura, and people like me hardly watch IPL nowadays. IPL is getting repetitive and too lengthy. ICC tournaments have the "fresh" feeling and their duration is optimal.

That's one of the reasons everyone saying that they overpaid.
Because at the end of the day they paid way too much if we are considering only a 10% threshold limit.

When we look at the difference between the first bid and the second bid, it is easy to see that there is a huge difference between the two bids. There was no way anyone could have expected this much of a difference. And that is always going to be in the back of their minds. There is no doubt in my mind that they will feel the loss of 1.7 billion dollars. However, they cannot change what has already been done. From now on, they should try to optimize the outcome of the project in order to achieve the best results.

[dezoel]

There is no chance that the ICC is going to work on your policy for every team in cricket. As we saw previously in this Asia Cup, when Pakistan lost against India, ICC posted a lot of posts on their Facebook timeline supporting India following the loss. I have not seen the ICC do the same thing for Pakistan in my opinion. That certainly shows the severity of discrimination that exists within the ICC. I do not think that the way the ICC does things will lead to any equality between the teams in cricket based on how they conduct themselves. Below is a link to the official Facebook page of the International Cricket Council. You can check if you wish to do so

https://www.facebook.com/icc

There are many factors for this Indian fan base in the biggest in ICC countries with this they are the biggest in earning for ICC as well just because of this mostly they celebrate Indian wins and in special case if this happens against Pakistan then they have more celebrations because then sentiments are more increased, and they have better viewership's and likes on their social media pages which is good for them and their parents which are Pig-4 right now.

On other side Pakistan has never been ideal country for any sports just because of political and uncertainty and natural disasters are also having big impact on them for years as they completely fail to settle things which are important for development and having better business sentiments for common peoples which are very important for having better results and income from any country.

[Sithara007]

Ofc it's all about adding new subscribers or maintaining the existing base intact.

Hotstar jumped close to 60 Million subscribers when they had IPL to show for Primetime (7:30 PM -11:00 PM slot). With ICC tournaments it's not the case even anymore (except 1 WC and 1 Champions trophy).

They could still make money out of 2 ICC tournaments that are scheduled in the subcontinent but the argument is they could have saved like billion dollars during the auction.

In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

[GigaBit]

No one is going to be able to generate money for ICC like India. And honestly now one is even going to be able to come close to India in terms of revenue.
PSL, PCL, and BPL can not even generate the revenue that India alone can generate. And India is going to flex about that for sure.
As per as I think it is also not going to be very surprised if they even try to take a little advantage of that as well.

No other country can give the financial support that India gives to ICC right now because they have a big market in cricket. It is true that other leagues such as PSL, BPL and CPL will not be able to pay the same amount of money as India pay. However, the financial aspect should not be brought to the larger interest of cricket. This will have the negative effect of a kind of dominating aspect among those who share more revenue which is not good for the cricket.

[JSRAW]

Ofc it's all about adding new subscribers or maintaining the existing base intact.

Hotstar jumped close to 60 Million subscribers when they had IPL to show for Primetime (7:30 PM -11:00 PM slot). With ICC tournaments it's not the case even anymore (except 1 WC and 1 Champions trophy).

They could still make money out of 2 ICC tournaments that are scheduled in the subcontinent but the argument is they could have saved like billion dollars during the auction.

In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

When we look at the difference between the first bid and the second bid, it is easy to see that there is a huge difference between the two bids. There was no way anyone could have expected this much of a difference. And that is always going to be in the back of their minds. There is no doubt in my mind that they will feel the loss of 1.7 billion dollars. However, they cannot change what has already been done. From now on, they should try to optimize the outcome of the project in order to achieve the best results.

That's what happens in a close bid.

[Sithara007]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

[JSRAW]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

As mentioned in my previous post that Hotstar does have a monopoly in OTT market, close to 60 Million paid subscribers so no argument there whatsoever.

Let me put it this way, why i think they overpaid (not saying that they can't make money, just focusing on overpaid issue)

- Do you think that casual or even hardcore cricket fans watch every match in the ICC tournament? 99.99% would say no because fans love to watch their respective team (sometimes they even miss the action) and marquee, knockout encounters like Semifinals/ Finals.

-There are total of 179 matches in 4 ICC tournaments and India is playing 26 matches in 4 ICC tournaments then we have additional 8 semifinals and 4 finals (knockouts).

- From the broadcaster's point of view if they are targeting the Indian market only, then they have only 26 (Ind) + 8(Semis) + 4(finals) = 38 Important matches out of 179 in the ICC tournaments.

- If we look at important matches only (38) then according to $3.02 Billion bid it every match is worth close to $80 Million.

- And if we are looking at every ICC match which is 179 then every game is worth approx $16.8 Million. Point to note that 1 IPL match worth is $13-ish million, that's a recent benchmark.

Remember 179 - 38 = 141 non India/ non knockouts.

Now tell me which broadcaster will pay close to $17 million bucks for Aus vs SL, Pak vs SL, SA vs BAN or even Eng vs Aus for Indian or any market?

[Sithara007]

^^^ IPL can't be compared with ICC tournaments such as ODI World Cup. First of all ODI matches last for 100 overs, while the IPL matches last only for 40% of that much. And also, IPL season is too long (2.5 months). Even the hardcore fans don't follow all the matches. On the other hand, World Cup usually lasts for less than a month, and fans like me follow most of the matches. And it is wrong to assume that an average cricket fan will be equally interested in all the IPL franchises. He will be having one or two favorite franchises and will be more interested in their matches.

[JSRAW]

^^^ IPL can't be compared with ICC tournaments such as ODI World Cup. First of all ODI matches last for 100 overs, while the IPL matches last only for 40% of that much.

Sounds like you are changing the goalpost by cherry-picking. We are talking about the economics of cricket and IPL is a recent example that's why I used that as a reference. ICC calendar has only one 50-overs tourny (India is playing 9 matches), 2 tournaments are T-20 format and probably they will go same with the champions trophy (not sure about format but India is playing 3 matches in group)

And also, IPL season is too long (2.5 months). Even the hardcore fans don't follow all the matches. On the other hand, World Cup usually lasts for less than a month, and fans like me follow most of the matches. And it is wrong to assume that an average cricket fan will be equally interested in all the IPL franchises. He will be having one or two favorite franchises and will be more interested in their matches.

That's exactly my point that fans hardly follow a complete tournament and stick to their fav franchise/country. It's equally true for ICC tournament.

Even dead rubber IPL matches generate average 5 million viewers in Hotstar. I hardly doubt that will be the case for every WC match, unless it's India or knockout fixtures. Just to give you an example Ind vs NZ WC semi-final witnessed 25 Million viewers at its peak, in comparison to the famous final Eng vs NZ, it barely touched 5 million that too with super over.

IDK about you or others but I don't see any logical reasoning when I see $17 Million per game in WC (This rate will go down drastically like $2-$5 million soon when the complete bidding process finishes tho) and when we count different timezone for 2 WC then It gets worse. I've presented all the numbers and it's available in the public domain for everyone to see.

IMO The best solution ICC could come up with is to organize main fixtures around Indian friendly timezone and I am sure Disney will try to push for it. On the other hand, Disney will also hope that these Indian WC match + WC Knockouts + IPL Knockouts keep their existing subscription base intact.

[Sithara007]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

[Theones]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

Has anyone seen Kohli speech today after the match - he looked very different and very serious person.
An I the only one who has noticed that -or others felt the same way.
Asia cup has taken the social media like strom - is it the same in your country?

[jostorres]

^^^ Subscriber base is going up by 8 million plus in a single quarter, and that means additional revenues of more than 100 million USD from new subscribers for that period alone. They have the rights until 2027. By then, they may be assuming that subscriber base will cross 100 million mark, which would mean guaranteed annual revenues of more than $1.2 billion. IPL + ICC streaming rights will cost them around that much, but then they can earn additional amounts from advertisements as well.

Has anyone seen Kohli speech today after the match - he looked very different and very serious person.
An I the only one who has noticed that -or others felt the same way.
Asia cup has taken the social media like strom - is it the same in your country?

Right now, all cricketing community specially Asians are talking about this Asia Cup with exit of India and Pakistan vs Afghanistan things happened after end of the match are brought this all in more limelight and now in last match kohli's century after more than 1000+ days is also giving some good masala to all peoples which is good for the Team India as now they are going to prepare for T20 world cup which is going to play after two months in Australia, and they are going to face against Pakistan in their first match which is going to be more interesting after this 1 - 1 end in this Asia cup.

Sri Lanka performance is also good as now they are going to face Pakistan on Friday and then Sunday, but today Indian performance give good idea about their preparation for world cup as they are still able to outclass any bowling lineup which causes problems for other teams, and they are still good and strong for the title in Australia.

[Sithara007]

Looks as if Nepal's most popular cricketer has landed himself in trouble:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/sandeep-lamichhane-suspended-by-nepal-board-after-arrest-warrant-issued-against-him-1333676

A 17-year old girl has accused him of raping her and as a result Sandeep Lamichhane has been suspended by Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN). Currently he was participating in the CPL competition, but his franchise (Jamaica Tallawahs) have announced that they are releasing him immediately and he will be leaving for Nepal today. The alleged incident happened three weeks ago, and I am not sure why the complaint wasn't filed till now. Rape laws in Indian sub-continent are frequently misused by females and I just hope that it is not the case this time.

[jaberwock]

Looks as if Nepal's most popular cricketer has landed himself in trouble:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/sandeep-lamichhane-suspended-by-nepal-board-after-arrest-warrant-issued-against-him-1333676

A 17-year old girl has accused him of raping her and as a result Sandeep Lamichhane has been suspended by Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN). Currently he was participating in the CPL competition, but his franchise (Jamaica Tallawahs) have announced that they are releasing him immediately and he will be leaving for Nepal today. The alleged incident happened three weeks ago, and I am not sure why the complaint wasn't filed till now. Rape laws in Indian sub-continent are frequently misused by females and I just hope that it is not the case this time.

In Sub-continent these are mostly misused which is really matter of shame because we have too many cases in past as well where things were happened with mutual understanding and the suddenly it's appear that girl or woman complain about rape authorities needs to do better strategy for this because this is surely going to have big problem for player like Sandeep Lamichane as now his contract with Jamaica Tallawabs is under threat and his reputation is already damaged badly which is not recoverable in any case.

If this happened three weeks back then why they lodged complaint after long time it's surely a big dilemma and need to go with this fairly and investigations needs to be started this why this girl waste three weeks for lodging this complaint.

[Sithara007]

^^^ I don't know what will happen to him now, but Sandeep Lamichhane was the only player in the Nepal squad with international franchise league experience. If he is suspended, then it will negatively impact their fortunes. Already they are performing poorly against squads with 100% foreigner composition such as Kuwait, Singapore and Hong Kong. Nepal is a cricket crazy country, but recently the national team's performance has been very disappointing. This latest incident is like rubbing salt to an open wound.

[Maady]

~~~
In my hometown, which falls within the tier-2 category, I have huge number of people cancelling their cable TV subscription and going for OTT platforms. Nowadays people don't care spending a few thousand rupees to watch quality stuff. Disney-Star paid $250 million per year last time, and that was in 2014. 8 years have passed and I would expect the rates to go up by 3x-4x, given the rapid growth in Indian consumer wealth. My conclusion is that Disney-Star paid a fair amount, while Sony and Reliance under-estimated the bid.

Agree with the former part of your comment.

for the latter, I guess it would make sense when all numbers are out from the ICC officials in DEC. IMO other competitors didn't actually underestimated anything, they just wanted an e-auction and Disney was desperate to get some content for Hotstar for obvious reasons.

Until a couple of years back, Hotstar was ahead in Sports OTT market by a huge margin. Now they are facing stiff competition (not just from Sony LIV, but also from minor competitors such as Fancode). Platforms such as Sony Liv do have higher quality and variety compared to Hotstar. And in the next 4-5 years I am sure that OTT will grow much bigger than the cable TV segment (especially for Sports), and Hotstar wants to cling on to the market share at any cost. And given the huge premium they paid for the Indian subcontinent, I won't be surprised if rest of the world goes for more than $1 billion.

As mentioned in my previous post that Hotstar does have a monopoly in OTT market, close to 60 Million paid subscribers so no argument there whatsoever.

Let me put it this way, why i think they overpaid (not saying that they can't make money, just focusing on overpaid issue)

- Do you think that casual or even hardcore cricket fans watch every match in the ICC tournament? 99.99% would say no because fans love to watch their respective team (sometimes they even miss the action) and marquee, knockout encounters like Semifinals/ Finals.

-There are total of 179 matches in 4 ICC tournaments and India is playing 26 matches in 4 ICC tournaments then we have additional 8 semifinals and 4 finals (knockouts).

- From the broadcaster's point of view if they are targeting the Indian market only, then they have only 26 (Ind) + 8(Semis) + 4(finals) = 38 Important matches out of 179 in the ICC tournaments.

- If we look at important matches only (38) then according to $3.02 Billion bid it every match is worth close to $80 Million.

- And if we are looking at every ICC match which is 179 then every game is worth approx $16.8 Million. Point to note that 1 IPL match worth is $13-ish million, that's a recent benchmark.

Remember 179 - 38 = 141 non India/ non knockouts.

Now tell me which broadcaster will pay close to $17 million bucks for Aus vs SL, Pak vs SL, SA vs BAN or even Eng vs Aus for Indian or any market?

If what you say is true and your numbers are correct then ICC is not taking care of small accociate members. It is like 15-20x yearly budget for us small counties.

[WatChe]

There is good development for Pakistan, Muhammad Hasnain is bowling at 150 kph with his new bowling action. He is also taking wickets in current tournament that tells the story that he can bowl with his new bowling action. He is just 24 years old and with shaheen Shah he can serve Pakistan for 10 years atleast.

[JSRAW]

~snip~

If what you say is true and your numbers are correct then ICC is not taking care of small accociate members. It is like 15-20x yearly budget for us small counties.

Tbh I have no idea the amount of associate nations are getting from the ICC right now but I agree they can't expect more because the last time I heard back in 2015 or so it was like a million or so, that's a fucking joke and criminal imo.

No wonder cricket is not spreading quickly as it is supposed to be.

[Rigon]

There is good development for Pakistan, Muhammad Hasnain is bowling at 150 kph with his new bowling action. He is also taking wickets in current tournament that tells the story that he can bowl with his new bowling action. He is just 24 years old and with shaheen Shah he can serve Pakistan for 10 years atleast.

Every pace king comes out of Pakistan. Currently Pakistan team is performing fairly well.Muhammad Hasnain bowls at a speed of 150 km, we can say that the speed is very complete and unusual.And the wicket he is taking in the current tournament is really commendable And the story seems to be.And he is doing all these performances at the age of 24. I always pray to go further and do better in the future.

[Theones]

~snip~

If what you say is true and your numbers are correct then ICC is not taking care of small accociate members. It is like 15-20x yearly budget for us small counties.

Tbh I have no idea the amount of associate nations are getting from the ICC right now but I agree they can't expect more because the last time I heard back in 2015 or so it was like a million or so, that's a fucking joke and criminal imo.

No wonder cricket is not spreading quickly as it is supposed to be.

Have anyone notices - Kholi has regained his strength?
Although India has not been able to make to finals but they have got their legend back - and the legend is the real legend.