This talk about home advantage - we only had three, yes 3, home wins in 18 matches, 10 away wins and 5 draws. This is pretty unusual.
In 2. Bundesliga we had 8 home wins, 7 draws and only 1 away win.
No home wins in yesterdays Bundesliga matches (3-7-12 now) and 2. Bundesliga followed the trend and no team was able to keep the 3 points in their backyard
![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
I don't really believe in some pattern in Bundesliga, but just variance. So we should start to see some more home wins soon. However for today I don't like anything prematch. Leipzig looks like a banker on paper, also because of H2H, which is horrible for Hertha:
Interesting observation. Maybe these matches played behind closed doors without supporters really take away the home field advantage completely.
I just looked at the previous seasons. And according to
this source the home win percentage was most time around 45 % (± a few percent), with mostly under 30% away wins.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4uWLvWn.png&t=665&c=1jAdga8XqkyDCg)
I am not really sure if the stats from the current season are up-to-date, so I checked by myself and calculated the percentages. Before the Corona break (match days 1-25) there were 97 home wins (= 43,30%), 49 draws (=21,88%) and 78 away wins (=34,82%). So even before the break, we had slightly higher winrate of the away team than usual.
Since the restart we have, as you already calculated correctly, seen at this point only 3 home wins (only 11,64%), 7 draws (31,82%) and 12 away wins (54,55%).
We haven't seen that many matches after the restart of the league but even now I'd say it's remarkable. I wouldn't place a bet based on all these (silly) calculations but it really shows nicely the influence and importance of a cheering stadium full of your supporters backing you up.
Hertha for the upset you think guys?
I am not sure about the upset but they have been scoring like crazy after the break so I believe they can at least score a goal today. Hopefully, Leipzig will score one or more so I went with both to score. I managed to find odds of 1.70 for this game which surprised me since I expected something like 1.5.
So guys if you want to earn some money play against my predictions since I can't get anything correct in Bundesliga after the break (2/8). I also think Ausburg should do well today so probably it will end 0:5 for the visitors.
Hertha is pretty unpredictable for me now with their new coach. They had some impressing results lately but, without beeing disrespectful towards Union Berlin and Hoffenheim, Leipzig is on a completly different level. It's these kind of matches I'd usually skip but betting for both to score is quite a good call imho.