Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread

[tyKiwanuka]

This talk about home advantage - we only had three, yes 3, home wins in 18 matches, 10 away wins and 5 draws. This is pretty unusual.

In 2. Bundesliga we had 8 home wins, 7 draws and only 1 away win.

No home wins in yesterdays Bundesliga matches (3-7-12 now) and 2. Bundesliga followed the trend and no team was able to keep the 3 points in their backyard

I don't really believe in some pattern in Bundesliga, but just variance. So we should start to see some more home wins soon. However for today I don't like anything prematch. Leipzig looks like a banker on paper, also because of H2H, which is horrible for Hertha:

Interesting observation. Maybe these matches played behind closed doors without supporters really take away the home field advantage completely.  

(...).

We haven't seen that many matches after the restart of the league but even now I'd say it's remarkable. I wouldn't place a bet based on all these (silly) calculations but it really shows nicely the influence and importance of a cheering stadium full of your supporters backing you up.

Yesterday was a bit better for the home teams, no away wins Bundesliga teams went 2-3-0 (making it 5-10-12 in total) and 2. Bundesliga 1-2-0.

As discussed in this topic you can't ever take away the home advantage completely, when one team has to travel, live in hotel etc., while the other is in their usual environment. But I think it's pretty clear by now, that a good portion of home advantage is taken away by playing behind closed doors. The (german hardcore) fans are not happy at all with these empty stadiums as you can see with all the banners being put in the stands. Not only because they can't support their team and go after their addiction, but because this is all so weird, when you are used to packed stadiums with great atmosphere.

Todays match between Stuttgart and Hamburg will have added virtual noise/fans during broadcast afaik and I am curious to see how it feels. Makes no difference for the players, but will maybe make watching this whole mess a lot more enjoyable.

[bct_ail]

The next 7 days will be very important for Bremen. First they play against to Schalke and afterwards on Wednesday they will play at home against Frankfurt. I'm looking forward for the match on Wednesday. That will be a very important game for both teams.

[Raflesia]

The next 7 days will be very important for Bremen. First they play against to Schalke and afterwards on Wednesday they will play at home against Frankfurt. I'm looking forward for the match on Wednesday. That will be a very important game for both teams.

Bremen is still in an insecure position or in the relegation zone. I think it is difficult for Bremen to move up to the next table because the points are quite different, especially this week when it will face Schalke for me it will also be difficult to win this match.

I think this match is not interesting even though Bremen will continue to try to win it.
Bremen vs Frankfurt I also prefer Frankfurt over Bremen.

[snipie]

Oh, man. Another stupid game day. Betting on a draw is not so easy. And at this game day there were to many of them.

No, i think that Leverkusen could make it. Fribourg latest games aren't that good compared to Leverkusen (except Wolfsbourg one...).
Leverkusen could at worst score a goal or two at the end of the game when Fribourg players become less concentrated and tired.
I will say +1 goal for Leverkusen at least!

[cryptofrka]

The next 7 days will be very important for Bremen. First they play against to Schalke and afterwards on Wednesday they will play at home against Frankfurt. I'm looking forward for the match on Wednesday. That will be a very important game for both teams.

After Fortuna's win yesterday, I'd say their chances of staying up are practically nonexistent.
They have Wolfsburg and Bayern at home next, they will hardly take points there. Last 2 games are Mainz and Koln so Paderborn away game might be crucial if they have any chance.

I'd assume odds on them getting relegated would be below 1.15 currently.

[Slow death]

Betting on a draw is not so easy.

I don't make that kind of bet because I never get it right

The 2nd Bundesliga has to offer a top game this evening.  Stuttgart - Hamburg. Third place vs. second place.

I only follow the Bundesliga games and I'm wondering if it is worth betting on that game, maybe if I have some time to analyze the teams I can bet on that game. But I don't know where I'm going to watch the game

Unfortunately it can be only watching at pay-tv.

for me to watch games I would have to fight with my sister because she like watch TV and watching on the internet is slow because at my house we have more people using the internet

[casperBGD]

The next 7 days will be very important for Bremen. First they play against to Schalke and afterwards on Wednesday they will play at home against Frankfurt. I'm looking forward for the match on Wednesday. That will be a very important game for both teams.

After Fortuna's win yesterday, I'd say their chances of staying up are practically nonexistent.
They have Wolfsburg and Bayern at home next, they will hardly take points there. Last 2 games are Mainz and Koln so Paderborn away game might be crucial if they have any chance.

I'd assume odds on them getting relegated would be below 1.15 currently.

yeah, but would not say that is finished for Bremen, Fortuna won and that is good for them, but there is Mainz as well and Frankfurt, both in bad form at the moment, think that it could more interesting that not, it is a lot of points, but Bremen has a 27 games, all others 28 games played so far, so one win could change that, and Bayern motivation could be questionable if they had more wins until that moment

[bct_ail]

Todays match between Stuttgart and Hamburg will have added virtual noise/fans during broadcast afaik and I am curious to see how it feels. Makes no difference for the players, but will maybe make watching this whole mess a lot more enjoyable.

I googled for it "virtual noise/fans), but It doesn't seem like the right thing  
https://www.google.de/search?q=virtual+noise%2Ffans

How does that work? Is there a technician in the stadium and pressing the buttons for goal, boo, swear words, chants and so on?

[big_daddy]

RB Leipzig missed the chance to reach (surpass) Borussia Dortmund on the table... what a match...

Tomorrow, Friday, we have one Bundesliga match taking place

SC Freiburg easily gets their net filled during this after covid pause, Bayer 04 Leverkusen has played three very efficient matches and is playing more efficiently on their away games, so my pick for tomorrow is:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win & over 2.5 @2.23

[casperBGD]

Stuttgart lost both matches after the Covid break, and they are on the way to lose third, since HSV has a lead on HT, 0:1, so Heidenheim has a chance to reach top 3 position and possibly get a Bundesliga position next year

as a have read here, so users will stop watch football in case of that @tyKiwanuka

do not think that Stuttgart can turnover tonight game, they seem to be too slow after the pandemic, maybe they used a break properly and did not trained at all

edit: while typing, it is now 0:2

[big_daddy]

^ I made a bet just before the first goal of Hamburg, and was thinking to bet on over 2.5, but not
I took Stuttgart on a double chance, 1X 

at the moment of writing the result is 1:2
maybe I am still in a possible winning position 

[casperBGD]

^ I made a bet just before the first goal of Hamburg, and was thinking to bet on over 2.5, but not
I took Stuttgart on a double chance, 1X 

at the moment of writing the result is 1:2
maybe I am still in a possible winning position 

crazy match at the end, home win 3:2 in the extra time, Stuttgart won the match, did not expect it at all, but they were much better in the second half

[bct_ail]

Wow. Who'd have thought it? Stuttgart wins 3-2 in extra time.  That is the second time that Hamburg received a goal in extra time.
Stuttgart is on the second place now and they have it in their own hands to move up to the first Bundesliga

[big_daddy]

Yeah
Good for me, cause on the 0:2 I was pretty sure that my double chance (1X) ticket is gonna to be burned, but at te end i won
The way back to the main Bundesliga is door open for Stuttgart

[Naida_BR]

Yeah
Good for me, cause on the 0:2 I was pretty sure that my double chance (1X) ticket is gonna to be burned, but at te end i won
The way back to the main Bundesliga is door open for Stuttgart

It was a great comeback for Stuttgart this goal in 92' was a savior.
They got a great advantage over Hamburg as they are now 2 points ahead.
But, still this advantage is a minor one and they should push more to reach their goals.

[casperBGD]

Leverkusen is playing with Freiburg this evening, and after bad match home with Wolfsburg, they need to win tonight, which should not be a problem for them, so i expect them to score tonight
Bayern and Dortmund are easy picks tomorrow and on Sunday, while Leipzig is close to lose in Koeln, since home team is in the good form at the moment

[bullrun2024bro]

KPMG just published a list with the "most valuable football clubs in the world". Only three Bundesliga clubs are among the top 15: FC Bayern (4), Borussia Dortmund (12) and Schalke 04 (15). Real Madrid is leading the list once again.



Source: https://twitter.com/iMiaSanMia/status/1265955023533543424 (Tweet with the full list)

[Trofo]

Really surprised to see Schalke on that list. I don't perceive them as rich club by any metrics. Weren't they actually on the brink on bankrot due to Corona crises and then Bayern and Borusia raised some money to help rest of the league? Isn't Schalke like working men's club, miners if I am not mistaken? Anyway, before seeing this, I would bet my house that at least Leipzig has more money and players with higher market value than Schalke.

[tomahawk9]

Freiburg vs Leverkusen - O 9.5 corners @1.65  (:

Really surprised to see Schalke on that list.

Tbh, I don't even perceive them as a top team  Honestly tho, you can go around and ask any football fan to name at least 3 players from the current Shalke 04 squad an they'll go ( . . . . ? ) lol
But the Bundesliga generates tons of money thx to tv rights (i think they're above La Liga), add some sponsors money (cocacola, gazprom, dhl, etc) and you kinda understand why they're in the top 15 on that list.

And I think i read about the bankruptcy thing, and IIRC ppl in the club were talking about bankruptcy on a general view (a lot of low-tier german clubs could've faced bankruptcy in the short-term) rather than Shalke 04 specifically.

[tyz]

Really surprised to see Schalke on that list. I don't perceive them as rich club by any metrics. Weren't they actually on the brink on bankrot due to Corona crises and then Bayern and Borusia raised some money to help rest of the league? Isn't Schalke like working men's club, miners if I am not mistaken? Anyway, before seeing this, I would bet my house that at least Leipzig has more money and players with higher market value than Schalke.

Depends on what metrics you look at. Schalke04 has over 160k members what makes it to the sixth biggest sports club in the world (according to the number of members) with many fan clubs all around the world. This alone makes the brand itself extremely valuable. In addition, the value also shows how attractive a game with a club is and how strong the marketing scope is. Both are much higher than many think.

Schalke is only close to bankruptcy due to the Corona crisis because it is still a registered association, contrary to almost all other Bundesliga or international clubs that were spinned-off and often belong to investors. This is also the reason why Schalke is currently discussing a spin-off. Only the fans don't want that.