Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[empoweoqwj]

new short term alert issued 8h ago. and again, worked fine

acknowledged, "real life" forecasts played out as well! awesome...

really? Nothing has played out yet, just more range trading.

[ArticMine]

I get a funny feeling this is the calm before the storm. Now as to which direction the wind will blow during the storm that is an entirely different question.

[Crypt_Current]

I get a funny feeling this is the calm before the storm. Now as to which direction the wind will blow during the storm that is an entirely different question.

down

[Jozzaboy]

I get a funny feeling this is the calm before the storm. Now as to which direction the wind will blow during the storm that is an entirely different question.

down

More like Up. This was the second testing of 100 and the second time that the price dropped below then shot straight back above.

[Its About Sharing]

I get a funny feeling this is the calm before the storm. Now as to which direction the wind will blow during the storm that is an entirely different question.

down

More like Up. This was the second testing of 100 and the second time that the price dropped below then shot straight back above.

Tough call. The market depth has been looking better but not showing up on it are those sells that just come and dump every so often.

Hitting 100 on low volume is not much support to me. When we tested a few levels on large volume on the post "collapse", that was meaningful to me. Also, a buyer came in and just put in a large market order to save the price. The slippage was huge, bad business decision. More suspicious behavior...

All that said, BTC is a hard on to predict and depending on global events, it can turn quick.

[lucas.sev]

I get a funny feeling this is the calm before the storm. Now as to which direction the wind will blow during the storm that is an entirely different question.

down

More like Up. This was the second testing of 100 and the second time that the price dropped below then shot straight back above.

Tough call. The market depth has been looking better but not showing up on it are those sells that just come and dump every so often.

Hitting 100 on low volume is not much support to me. When we tested a few levels on large volume on the post "collapse", that was meaningful to me. Also, a buyer came in and just put in a large market order to save the price. The slippage was huge, bad business decision. More suspicious behavior...

The same buyer bought over 4k coins at 110 after that huge slippage buy, its was a very bad business decision.

[BitPirate]

^ How do you know it was the same buyer?

Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.

[lucas.sev]

^ How do you know it was the same buyer?

Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.

Because I watched it as it happened, the price spiked to 110, and immediately a wall appeared at 110 which was subsequently eaten.

Here is a detailed description of events:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231934.0

[BitPirate]

^ How do you know it was the same buyer?

Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.

Because I watched it as it happened, the price spiked to 110, and immediately a wall appeared at 110 which was subsequently eaten.

Here is a detailed description of events:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231934.0

All I see there is the same two things: "Assuming it was the same person", and "with XXX slippage". After every BTC crash or mini-crash with a rebound that I've seen, there are always several big buys as people try to increase their BTC holdings on the way up before it's too late. They are usually rushed and a bit wild due to Goxlag. There was nothing new there.

In my mind, it would be more interesting to speculate on who (and why) caused the sell-off in the first place.

Anyway, sorry to S3052 for being off-topic. Just getting sick of the FUD around here. Actually, it's not so much the FUD.... more how it is so readily lapped up.

[S3052]

^ How do you know it was the same buyer?

Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.

Because I watched it as it happened, the price spiked to 110, and immediately a wall appeared at 110 which was subsequently eaten.

Here is a detailed description of events:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231934.0

All I see there is the same two things: "Assuming it was the same person", and "with XXX slippage". After every BTC crash or mini-crash with a rebound that I've seen, there are always several big buys as people try to increase their BTC holdings on the way up before it's too late. They are usually rushed and a bit wild due to Goxlag. There was nothing new there.

In my mind, it would be more interesting to speculate on who (and why) caused the sell-off in the first place.

Anyway, sorry to S3052 for being off-topic. Just getting sick of the FUD around here. Actually, it's not so much the FUD.... more how it is so readily lapped up.

no worries. this discussion is very good. no reason to stop

[empoweoqwj]

Thank you for the newsletters and special updates, they have proved very useful so far.

There's a big issue at the moment with MTGOX not processing USD withdrawals. Seems that people are selling off at MTGOX and moving their coins to bitstamp etc. to get their USD out of bitcoins. The price differential between GOX and bitstamp.net is currently $11, normally its a $1 or 2.

So my question is whether your recommendations over the next week or two will take this into account? If people really are panic selling at MTGOX, the price could stay high (or go higher) for a few days then collapse .......

Just a thought  

[S3052]

Thank you for the newsletters and special updates, they have proved very useful so far.

There's a big issue at the moment with MTGOX not processing USD withdrawals. Seems that people are selling off at MTGOX and moving their coins to bitstamp etc. to get their USD out of bitcoins. The price differential between GOX and bitstamp.net is currently $11, normally its a $1 or 2.

So my question is whether your recommendations over the next week or two will take this into account? If people really are panic selling at MTGOX, the price could stay high (or go higher) for a few days then collapse .......

Just a thought  

We definitely agree that there is market distorsion and even if prices at MtGox rise a bit further, this is not bullish at all.
Certainly, this is a great arbitrage opportunity to buy at bitstamp and sell at MtGox. I.e. if you could buy BTC for 1 million USD at bitstamp and sell at MtGox, you would make approx 100,000 profit now.

[N12]

Thank you for the newsletters and special updates, they have proved very useful so far.

There's a big issue at the moment with MTGOX not processing USD withdrawals. Seems that people are selling off at MTGOX and moving their coins to bitstamp etc. to get their USD out of bitcoins. The price differential between GOX and bitstamp.net is currently $11, normally its a $1 or 2.

So my question is whether your recommendations over the next week or two will take this into account? If people really are panic selling at MTGOX, the price could stay high (or go higher) for a few days then collapse .......

Just a thought 

We definitely agree that there is market distorsion and even if prices at MtGox rise a bit further, this is not bullish at all.
Certainly, this is a great arbitrage opportunity to buy at bitstamp and sell at MtGox. I.e. if you could buy BTC for 1 million USD at bitstamp and sell at MtGox, you would make approx 100,000 profit now.

I agree. This time, the prices have really diverged. MtGox Buyers are essentially betting that MtGox is insolvent and willing to pay a 13% fee for it over Bitstamp. I believe they are mistaken since MtGox still handles SEPA transfers and has obviously been the most profitable and trustworthy exchange.

MtGox has done a very bad PR job offering no explanations. I'm sure they are enjoying the recent volumes though, they are profiting of it. Kind of perverse. Perhaps they should have halted mtgoxUSD trading since that market is obviously broken and people may be mistakenly taking the prices for real and trading on them. The thing is that MtGox has essentially devalued the Dollars there, by currently 13%. Very bad move, and very bad for confidence in the longer run.

[notme]

Thank you for the newsletters and special updates, they have proved very useful so far.

There's a big issue at the moment with MTGOX not processing USD withdrawals. Seems that people are selling off at MTGOX and moving their coins to bitstamp etc. to get their USD out of bitcoins. The price differential between GOX and bitstamp.net is currently $11, normally its a $1 or 2.

So my question is whether your recommendations over the next week or two will take this into account? If people really are panic selling at MTGOX, the price could stay high (or go higher) for a few days then collapse .......

Just a thought 

We definitely agree that there is market distorsion and even if prices at MtGox rise a bit further, this is not bullish at all.
Certainly, this is a great arbitrage opportunity to buy at bitstamp and sell at MtGox. I.e. if you could buy BTC for 1 million USD at bitstamp and sell at MtGox, you would make approx 100,000 profit now.

I agree. This time, the prices have really diverged. MtGox Buyers are essentially betting that MtGox is insolvent and willing to pay a 13% fee for it over Bitstamp. I believe they are mistaken since MtGox still handles SEPA transfers and has obviously been the most profitable and trustworthy exchange.

MtGox has done a very bad PR job offering no explanations. I'm sure they are enjoying the recent volumes though, they are profiting of it. Kind of perverse. Perhaps they should have halted mtgoxUSD trading since that market is obviously broken and people may be mistakenly taking the prices for real and trading on them. The thing is that MtGox has essentially devalued the Dollars there, by currently 13%. Very bad move, and very bad for confidence in the longer run.

Well, rising volume due to uncertainty certainly doesn't hurt their business model.  Why bother with good PR?

[N12]

It will hurt them in the longer run as Bitstamp snags more market share, which is happening. I noticed a record amount of Bitcoins on Bitstamp. MtGox will be losing out on more than they gained briefly. Once the USD valves are open, USD will probably follow out.

If they wish to remain significant, better PR has to be done, ie one that doesn't leave people wondering whether or not they are solvent.

As for effects on Bitcoin prices. Once the market normalizes again, I'd expect a surplus of Bitcoin on Bitstamp and a lack of USD on MtGox, creating a possible environment for much lower prices.

[jimbobway]

We definitely agree that there is market distorsion and even if prices at MtGox rise a bit further, this is not bullish at all.

One could also argue this is long term bullish.  Why?  This market distortion demonstrates the power of bitcoin.  eGold died when the authorities shut it down.  With bitcoin, however, people can move their bitcoins to their local machine and/or put their coins on another server on another side of the Earth almost immediately.  Bitcoin can't be shut down.  Long term market forces will make bitcoin prevail and win.

[N12]

<Blitzboom> i hope this will be over sooner than 2 weeks as well, because right now a lot of people are losing a lot of money due to it (12% spread)
<Blitzboom> damaga is already done, let's hope it stays not too catastrophic
<MagicalTux> we're processing larger withdrawals manually
<MagicalTux> (paper based)
<Blitzboom> what, cash per mails?
<Blitzboom> not sure what paper based means
<MagicalTux> fill wire form, submit it at the bank's branch

If true, it would be evidence that all this panicking has been over nothing and that MtGox sucks at PR.

[Frozenlock]

Wait, you mean that some bitcoiners panicked over nothing?

NooooOOOooo.
Impossibru!

[empoweoqwj]

It will hurt them in the longer run as Bitstamp snags more market share, which is happening. I noticed a record amount of Bitcoins on Bitstamp. MtGox will be losing out on more than they gained briefly. Once the USD valves are open, USD will probably follow out.

If they wish to remain significant, better PR has to be done, ie one that doesn't leave people wondering whether or not they are solvent.

As for effects on Bitcoin prices. Once the market normalizes again, I'd expect a surplus of Bitcoin on Bitstamp and a lack of USD on MtGox, creating a possible environment for much lower prices.

I agree. A bitcoin-wide price drop looks pretty inevitable. I'm in cash at the moment.

[empoweoqwj]

Wait, you mean that some bitcoiners panicked over nothing?

NooooOOOooo.
Impossibru!

Yeah, certainly a pattern 

We'll just have to see how the MtGox story develops. Their press release just didn't ring true though. They have to suspend all USD withdrawals because of increased activity? Hire some more staff dumbasses, not tell people currently working to stop working. Doh!