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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504100 times)
BTCurious
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December 14, 2011, 09:51:46 AM
 #1701


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy
It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.
Can I subscribe to your newsletter to find out when you're occupied? Smiley

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zby
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December 14, 2011, 09:57:32 AM
 #1702


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy
It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.
Can I subscribe to your newsletter to find out when you're occupied? Smiley

He admitted that he is now out of BTC needed for the stabilisation Smiley
BTCurious
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December 14, 2011, 09:58:06 AM
 #1703


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy
It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.
Can I subscribe to your newsletter to find out when you're occupied? Smiley

He admitted that he is now out of BTC needed for the stabilisation Smiley
BUY BUY BUY Smiley

old_engineer
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December 14, 2011, 10:34:43 AM
 #1704


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy
It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.
Can I subscribe to your newsletter to find out when you're occupied? Smiley
Hah, I hadn't realized that my goal of a boring market would impact speculators that want volatility, and would get bored watching a line that doesn't move.  Sometimes I feel dense. Smiley

Looks like 2 days without a rise was enough to curb the enthusiasm, and the price has actually dropped a little.  The weekend is coming! The weekend is coming!
BTCurious
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December 14, 2011, 10:43:55 AM
 #1705

So, during the weekend it goes down, if and only if old_engineer is paying attention? Smiley

Edit: It's going down. Now that you're out of bitcoins, you could stabilize it upward a bit Tongue (Or maybe you're already doing that?)

notme
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December 14, 2011, 10:50:47 AM
 #1706


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy
It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.
Can I subscribe to your newsletter to find out when you're occupied? Smiley
Hah, I hadn't realized that my goal of a boring market would impact speculators that want volatility, and would get bored watching a line that doesn't move.  Sometimes I feel dense. Smiley

Looks like 2 days without a rise was enough to curb the enthusiasm, and the price has actually dropped a little.  The weekend is coming! The weekend is coming!


Hey, maybe you can buy back in sooner than you expected... we just lost a dime or two.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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old_engineer
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December 14, 2011, 11:22:44 AM
 #1707

Hey, maybe you can buy back in sooner than you expected... we just lost a dime or two.
I'm peanuts compared to these guys with 20-50k btc walls. They set the price, and I work within the price they set.  My modus operandi of 100-300 btc buys is just noise.
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December 14, 2011, 02:06:34 PM
 #1708


I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.
It's not entirely magnanimous since I just cashed out at a slight profit, making up for all my losses on the way down from $17.  But it'll be nice to not watch the charts like a hawk for a while, kind of looking forward to it, really.


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy

It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

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RyNinDaCleM
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December 14, 2011, 05:10:48 PM
 #1709


btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?


What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!!  Shocked

It's how I do what I do, when I do what I do
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molecular
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December 14, 2011, 10:46:26 PM
 #1710

What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!!  Shocked

No, but you might hear a relieved sigh and a voice from the off (imagine Rick Falkvinges deep, slow, drawn out intonation and scandinavian accent here): "aaaah --- finally --- equilibrium"

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notme
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December 15, 2011, 01:38:20 AM
 #1711


btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?


What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!!  Shocked

I would assume the bot would simply wait for it to unbalance

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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RyNinDaCleM
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December 15, 2011, 03:50:33 AM
 #1712

What happens when you hit exactly 50/50? The bot will break!!!  Shocked

No, but you might hear a relieved sigh and a voice from the off (imagine Rick Falkvinges deep, slow, drawn out intonation and scandinavian accent here): "aaaah --- finally --- equilibrium"



I would assume the bot would simply wait for it to unbalance

Yeah, I wasn't thinking. It would only be a problem if exchange rate were static.
When in actuality, if it drops, bot buys. If it goes up, bot sells.
Derp!  Roll Eyes

It's how I do what I do, when I do what I do
Trade Virtual Bitcoins! Bit-Sim.trade The Bitcoin trade simulator 2.0
Sentiment: Still Bearish
notme
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December 15, 2011, 04:43:43 AM
 #1713

Yeah, I wasn't thinking. It would only be a problem if exchange rate were static.
When in actuality, if it drops, bot buys. If it goes up, bot sells.
Derp!  Roll Eyes

Right, and in general, any strategy is essentially

BTC*RATE = A*USD

Where A or alpha is less than 1 for a "short bitcoin" strategy and greater than 1 for a "long bitcoin" strategy.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
barbarousrelic
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December 15, 2011, 02:37:44 PM
 #1714


I think I can speak for all Bitcoin users around the world that we certainly appreciate such a magnanimous gesture.
It's not entirely magnanimous since I just cashed out at a slight profit, making up for all my losses on the way down from $17.  But it'll be nice to not watch the charts like a hawk for a while, kind of looking forward to it, really.


We found the Manipulator Stabilizer! Cheesy

It's been really funny seeing people complain about market volatility literally every time I'm not stabilizing the market, like this past weekend when I was otherwise occupied.

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?


Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
notme
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December 15, 2011, 02:49:16 PM
 #1715

Also true, unless you add constraints to when it's "allowed" to trade.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
BTCurious
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December 15, 2011, 03:31:57 PM
 #1716

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.
I don't see why this should be so.

barbarousrelic
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December 15, 2011, 07:52:07 PM
 #1717

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.
I don't see why this should be so.
Ah, I misunderstood what you intended the bot to do. You would never run out of either Bitcoin or dollars, but as the price varied further from the price you were trying to stabilize to, your bot would become asymptotically less effective at moving the price.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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December 15, 2011, 07:54:55 PM
 #1718

Unless you have an enormous amount of Bitcoin or dollars, this bot would quickly run out of either Bitcoins or dollars.
I don't see why this should be so.
Ah, I misunderstood what you intended the bot to do. You would never run out of either Bitcoin or dollars, but as the price varied further from the price you were trying to stabilize to, your bot would become asymptotically less effective at moving the price.

You're still misunderstanding, the bot has no price it's trying to stabilize to. It only reacts to rebalance the equation by selling or buying when the price changes.
notme
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December 15, 2011, 11:23:56 PM
 #1719

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.  But if you restrict it to only buy when oversold and only sell when it's overbought and you should do pretty well.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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kokjo
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December 16, 2011, 08:59:46 AM
 #1720

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.
it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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