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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509472 times)
notme
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December 16, 2011, 09:35:03 AM
 #1721

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.
it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

So with a constraint?  You mean like I said?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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kokjo
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December 16, 2011, 09:56:20 AM
 #1722

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.
it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

So with a constraint?  You mean like I said?
yes yes. what ever, but its a very logical constraint, and obvious needed

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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December 16, 2011, 10:27:23 AM
 #1723

Discussion is moot. The constraint was specified by molecular in his very first post on this idea. See bolded part:

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

molecular
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December 16, 2011, 11:04:23 AM
 #1724

It would still lose without constraints due to fees and market volatility.
it would not lose to fees. you could say that the bot should only trade when price had moved a certain %

So with a constraint?  You mean like I said?
yes yes. what ever, but its a very logical constraint, and obvious needed

Obviously. My implementation implemented a minimum amount that had to be traded and could be set.

Of course the bot looses on fees, but it also gains on reversals.

I should make a simulation and feed it with historical BTC/USD data.

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DarkEmi
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December 16, 2011, 04:21:49 PM
 #1725

@molecular :
I took the time to go out of newbie status just to answer you Smiley

This is actually quite funny, because i "invented" the same trading algorithm as you this summer (with the basis principal of BTC_value = $)

I tought that it was a very good idea, and wanted to toy with this on real market as well (using 2 stocks that would have good variance and low risk of ruin)

I wonder if variants of this are used by "real" trading compagnies.

In my opinion the risk of ruin (i mean the risk of the value going near 0) for both asset HAS to be low, because this strategy is basically a variant of buying when something goes down.

I havent used it however yet because I bough quite some coin > 10$ and I dont really like to change half of them into $ with a loss, but thats definitely something I would like to try.

Edit : I want to do something like 70% bitcoin 30% $ as I am long with bitcoins.

speculate on the mtgox price - http://www.btcoracle.com/
buy Mastercoin - http://masterxchange.com
molecular
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December 16, 2011, 05:38:54 PM
 #1726

@molecular :
I took the time to go out of newbie status just to answer you Smiley

I feel honored! Thank you.

This is actually quite funny, because i "invented" the same trading algorithm as you this summer (with the basis principal of BTC_value = $)

I tought that it was a very good idea, and wanted to toy with this on real market as well (using 2 stocks that would have good variance and low risk of ruin)

I wonder if variants of this are used by "real" trading compagnies.

I'm pretty sure this is at least a "known" strategy, since it's naive and trivial. Maybe it's too naive and trivial to even be called a "strategy", I don't know.

In my opinion the risk of ruin (i mean the risk of the value going near 0) for both asset HAS to be low, because this strategy is basically a variant of buying when something goes down.

The risk of "ruin" should be negligible (unless you make some mistake and your bot gets eaten by fees). You either end up with loads of bitcoin (in case BTC/USD goes down to near zero) or you end up with loads of fiat in case BTC/USD skyrockets. Some might argue: but that's "ruin", because you're left holding something pretty worthless. However these extreme cases are unlikely.

I think maybe this is something one can have running when one doesn't know what to do, sort of as a housekeeping strategy.

I havent used it however yet because I bough quite some coin > 10$ and I dont really like to change half of them into $ with a loss, but thats definitely something I would like to try.

In this case you could also just add $. But of course you should only do that if you want to invest them and can affort to loose them. (or make another account and try with a little bit of money, or yet: just simulate)

Thanks again for your answer, it's nice to see another newbie freed Wink

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Chris Acheson
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December 16, 2011, 07:13:20 PM
 #1727

I'm pretty sure this is at least a "known" strategy, since it's naive and trivial. Maybe it's too naive and trivial to even be called a "strategy", I don't know.

I believe this is known as a "market maker" strategy.  You're not making predictions about price movements (other than that there will be general volatility), you're just profiting by providing liquidity and dampening volatility.

Quote
I think maybe this is something one can have running when one doesn't know what to do, sort of as a housekeeping strategy.

This is what I've done.  It's not nearly as good as correctly calling the big moves, but it's better than doing nothing.  I wrote a bot to do the trades for me, although it doesn't specifically try to keep BTC balance equal to USD balance.
molecular
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December 16, 2011, 08:27:05 PM
 #1728

I'm pretty sure this is at least a "known" strategy, since it's naive and trivial. Maybe it's too naive and trivial to even be called a "strategy", I don't know.

I believe this is known as a "market maker" strategy.  You're not making predictions about price movements (other than that there will be general volatility), you're just profiting by providing liquidity and dampening volatility.

Quote
I think maybe this is something one can have running when one doesn't know what to do, sort of as a housekeeping strategy.

This is what I've done.  It's not nearly as good as correctly calling the big moves, but it's better than doing nothing.  I wrote a bot to do the trades for me, although it doesn't specifically try to keep BTC balance equal to USD balance.

ahaaaa! gotcha!

I've been seeing these equally spaced orders of equal size a while ago. (they where quite big (in sum) and densely spaced, something like 0.05 BTC/USD apart)

Just looked through your code and definitely this code will do exactly that: place a given amount of orders equally spaced with equal amount above and below current ticker rate.

Then it dawned on me: that was probably the bot that placed these orders Wink Maybe you, maybe someone else using your code.

Thanks for clearing that one up for me Wink

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trogdorjw73
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December 16, 2011, 08:51:00 PM
 #1729

I'm pretty sure this is at least a "known" strategy, since it's naive and trivial. Maybe it's too naive and trivial to even be called a "strategy", I don't know.

I believe this is known as a "market maker" strategy.  You're not making predictions about price movements (other than that there will be general volatility), you're just profiting by providing liquidity and dampening volatility.

Quote
I think maybe this is something one can have running when one doesn't know what to do, sort of as a housekeeping strategy.

This is what I've done.  It's not nearly as good as correctly calling the big moves, but it's better than doing nothing.  I wrote a bot to do the trades for me, although it doesn't specifically try to keep BTC balance equal to USD balance.
Hey Chris, have you tried this with Python 3.2.2 for Windows? Not sure what to do to get it to run, and I'd love to fool around with things and give it a shot. Right now it gives me syntax errors on the mtgox.py and liquidbot.py files for what seem to be acceptable statements (e.g. it gives an error of "invalid syntax" on the line "print timestamp_string(),..." highlighting the timestamp_string part). Thanks!

EDIT: Nevermind; I guess you wrote this for Python 2.x; it's running fine (AFAICT) on that platform.

Chris Acheson
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December 17, 2011, 03:27:54 PM
 #1730

Then it dawned on me: that was probably the bot that placed these orders Wink Maybe you, maybe someone else using your code.

Probably not mine.  I never had enough funds to make those nice obvious staircase patterns.  There are other bots that do the same thing, such as this one.
molecular
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December 17, 2011, 03:56:41 PM
 #1731

Then it dawned on me: that was probably the bot that placed these orders Wink Maybe you, maybe someone else using your code.

Probably not mine.  I never had enough funds to make those nice obvious staircase patterns.  There are other bots that do the same thing, such as this one.

I checked that one out at some point. Maybe it can be configured that way, but it's standard behaviour does not produce such a pattern.

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December 18, 2011, 01:06:51 PM
 #1732

New public bitcoin charts and bitcoin prices forecast: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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December 18, 2011, 01:14:36 PM
 #1733

New public bitcoin charts and bitcoin prices forecast: http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/
I think in log scale, the upper trend is broken.

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December 18, 2011, 01:49:47 PM
 #1734

I think you made a mistake on the date of that post; it says November.

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December 18, 2011, 02:43:51 PM
 #1735

Saw the same thing on my charts. Going to be interesting the next few days. I'm fairly certain we're going up, though. I've made a few charts of the cumulative support to 2,80$ en the cumulative resistance to 3,49999 over the last few days and the former value has been rising, while the latter value has been decreasing. The ratio of support/resistance has been rising fast. They make for some great looking charts Smiley Also, it's possible to draw 2 downward trendlines, which are very close to each other, and we're about to break both of them. I'm quite certain that we're going to bounce off the upward trendline you and I drew, breaking the 2 downward trendlines, and going UP. The increasing buy pressure is supportive of that theory.

I'm currently long, with a stop sell order ready if we break the supportive trendline and start to drop. I'm most likely going to buy more and/or place stop-buy orders if we bounce on the supportive trendline, ready to go for higher highs =)

www.bitbuy.nl - Koop eenvoudig, snel en goedkoop bitcoins bij Bitbuy!
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December 18, 2011, 02:57:01 PM
 #1736

You bulls are about to be disappointed!  We won't see any price movement until volume picks up in January.  Right now a lot of people are taking a break from speculation.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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December 18, 2011, 03:05:40 PM
 #1737

We _will_ see price movements the coming days. The question is, is whether it's going to be up or down. Personally, as I've explaining before, I believe there's a strong chance of it going up =)

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zby
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December 18, 2011, 03:11:28 PM
 #1738

I have the feeling that many traders are bullish but wait for the holiday sell-off - this is why the bid walls grow, but if they grow enough the sell-off will not happen.
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December 18, 2011, 03:52:14 PM
 #1739

You bulls are about to be disappointed!  We won't see any price movement until volume picks up in January.  Right now a lot of people are taking a break from speculation.

All you need is a computer (and maybe a bot) - it's not as if people go back to their families and discover they have no internet access. There is no holiday season on the internet.
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December 18, 2011, 03:53:16 PM
 #1740

You bulls are about to be disappointed!  We won't see any price movement until volume picks up in January.  Right now a lot of people are taking a break from speculation.

All you need is a computer (and maybe a bot) - it's not as if people go back to their families and discover they have no internet access. There is no holiday season on the internet.

This is not borne out by the record low volumes on bitcoincharts.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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