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Author Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order  (Read 505338 times)
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June 06, 2016, 07:48:43 PM
 #321

A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI.  Keep the Faith.

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June 06, 2016, 08:04:30 PM
 #322

Don't you worry, Canaan Creative Avalon 7.0 might be on the way to soon compete with the overpriced Ant S9.

From "Avalon ASIC users thread":

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June 06, 2016, 08:07:27 PM
 #323

A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI.  Keep the Faith.

if you are requiring a bitcoin price increase to break even.. it would have been far more profitable to just hold onto the bitcoins and hope for that same price increase.


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June 06, 2016, 08:19:28 PM
 #324

A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI.  Keep the Faith.

if you are requiring a bitcoin price increase to break even.. it would have been far more profitable to just hold onto the bitcoins and hope for that same price increase.




 boring! Grin

but kind of true.

I am holding 6.4 coins at the moment waiting to get more gear and price is shifting up.

SINCE i have s-9's on order maybe I get lucky and coins shoot to 750. While I wait.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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June 06, 2016, 08:35:17 PM
 #325

I did a simple calculus, guess for youreself  Wink

- First ROW = Type of Miner
- Second ROW = Power Usage
- Third ROW = Efficiency compared to the predessecor

Code:
S1J/GH S3J/GH S5J/GH S7J/GH S9J/GH SN.A.J/GH
   2    0,74    0,51   0,25   0,1       0,04
      37,00% 68,92% 49,02% 40,00%    40,00%

Here is my estimate, from September 2014.  Accurately predicted S5, S7 & S9 efficiency to within ~10%:

Just thought I'd try to contribute something.  Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while.  Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic:



Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes.  We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns.

When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15,

11.2e(-0.118*25)=0.586 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112*25)=0.428 W/GHs

When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15:

11.2e(-0.118*32)=0.257 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112*32)=0.195 W/GHs

S9 released in May '16, or x=41

11.2e(-0.118*41)=0.0887 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112*41)=0.0713 W/GHs

6 months from now in December 2016, x=48

11.2e(-0.118*48)=0.0388 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112*48)=0.0326 W/GHs

1 Year from now in June 2017, x=54

11.2e(-0.118*54)=0.0191 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112*54)=0.0166 W/GHs


Pretty much the same as i said, but phil and sidehack don't really believe in this  Cheesy

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June 06, 2016, 08:35:46 PM
 #326

Between difficulty, electricity and 0.035 BTC a day @ 14TH it will take you a year to break even and three more years to double your money.


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June 06, 2016, 08:46:18 PM
 #327

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.
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June 06, 2016, 08:52:06 PM
 #328

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.


The EVGA SuperNOVA 1600 G2?? Does it have 9 PCI-e connectors?? Will it be able to power an S9?

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June 06, 2016, 08:53:16 PM
 #329

Between difficulty, electricity and 0.035 BTC a day @ 14TH it will take you a year to break even and three more years to double your money.

Trust me, few on this thread care to hear that sort of talk. Plus, the difficulty is going to drop 30% at the halving, didn't you know?!

A nice Bitcoin rise will smooth all of your problems with ROI.  Keep the Faith.

if you are requiring a bitcoin price increase to break even.. it would have been far more profitable to just hold onto the bitcoins and hope for that same price increase.

Again, this kind of sound logic is usually met with cries of "selfish trader!" The only way to contribute to BTC is to mine, even at a BTC loss.
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June 06, 2016, 09:34:06 PM
 #330

Between difficulty, electricity and 0.035 BTC a day @ 14TH it will take you a year to break even and three more years to double your money.



It is before 0.035 BTC and after 33 days from now it is only 0.0175 BTC

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June 06, 2016, 09:51:17 PM
 #331

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.


Some folks here think that we are buying S7s with PSUs outright like them. But most people who are buying S9s are replacing their S7s effectively reducing S9 price to $1000 -$1200. Those S7s were in service since September 2015 and already paid themselves off.

For quality risers, splitters or 133 CFM fans, please visit my eBay listings,
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June 06, 2016, 10:04:02 PM
 #332

Some of them did. Anyone replacing gear has to make sure and only count the resale value of the S7 once; it can't both contribute to S7 breakeven and S9 initial purchase (in S9 breakeven calculations).
I assume you're replacing 3xS7 with a single S9 to get that reduction?

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June 06, 2016, 10:10:06 PM
 #333

Some of them did. Anyone replacing gear has to make sure and only count the resale value of the S7 once; it can't both contribute to S7 breakeven and S9 initial purchase (in S9 breakeven calculations).
I assume you're replacing 3xS7 with a single S9 to get that reduction?

Yes, I am considering price of 3 S7s when calculating initial costs of a S9 which reduces it to a more manageable level. My plan is to replace my existing S7s (3 to 1) with S9s and buy more after halving depending on BTC price and difficulty. Please check your messages.

For quality risers, splitters or 133 CFM fans, please visit my eBay listings,
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June 06, 2016, 10:11:26 PM
 #334

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.


Some folks here think that we are buying S7s with PSUs outright like them. But most people who are buying S9s are replacing their S7s effectively reducing S9 price to $1000 -$1200. Those S7s were in service since September 2015 and already paid themselves off.

There is no such thing as 'reducing the price'.  You still have to give Bitmain more BTC than the S9 will return.  Whether you purchase that BTC outright or sell off old mining gear you still send the same amount of BTC to Bitmain.  The price is the price and it's higher than the return.  You'd still do better to sell your S7s and hold the coin they make rather than buying an S9.  BTC in > BTC out -> makes a sucker.  

People will jump through whatever hoops they have to to keep from admitting a bad deal...

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.


The EVGA SuperNOVA 1600 G2?? Does it have 9 PCI-e connectors?? Will it be able to power an S9?

I believe they have 13 PCI-e.  Maybe 8 6+2-pin and (5) 6-pin.  Something like that.  I've tested an S7 Batch 7 on an extra one I had in the office and it pushed it just fine.  The voltage variation is probably quite a bit more than comparable server PSUs though.
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June 06, 2016, 10:31:36 PM
 #335

I have 3 S7's from 3 different batches and mining on Kano with greater than 100% luck, none of them have broken even yet, although 2 of them are close if I do not include the PSU.  But I do include the PSU in my ROI calculations since I buy them from newegg with BTC.  I bought brand new EVGA 1600's for the S7's so they were somewhere around 1 BTC each at the time of purchase.  So those two S7's need to generate about 1.2 BTC to break even on the miner itself plus the PSU.  My 3rd S7 is further behind, it needs another half bitcoin to get caught up to the other two, so 1.7 BTC to break even on the miner plus the PSU.  I expect I will probably break even on the miners by the halving but the PSU's may not get paid for for some time.  I could sell the S7's at or close to break even on the miner and upgrade to S9's (just transfer the cost of the PSU's from the S7's to the S9's in my calculations) but I am with Puffy on this, it would cost more BTC then it would generate so totally not worth it at the current price.  If BTC value continues to rise it may get to a point where it is worth it even at $2100 but we got a lot more value to go up before that happens.  I have never purchased BTC with fiat so all of my miners are purchased with BTC I already mined going back a while now.  It makes zero sense for me to buy a miner with BTC I already have that will generate less BTC than it costs.  Until that calculus changes I won't be buying one of these things.
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June 06, 2016, 11:49:43 PM
 #336

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.


I wished there was a 1600w 120v server PSU instead of having to spend $320 on the EVGA.

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June 07, 2016, 12:08:35 AM
 #337

I have 3 S7's from 3 different batches and mining on Kano with greater than 100% luck, none of them have broken even yet, although 2 of them are close if I do not include the PSU.  But I do include the PSU in my ROI calculations since I buy them from newegg with BTC.  I bought brand new EVGA 1600's for the S7's so they were somewhere around 1 BTC each at the time of purchase.  So those two S7's need to generate about 1.2 BTC to break even on the miner itself plus the PSU.  My 3rd S7 is further behind, it needs another half bitcoin to get caught up to the other two, so 1.7 BTC to break even on the miner plus the PSU.  I expect I will probably break even on the miners by the halving but the PSU's may not get paid for for some time.  I could sell the S7's at or close to break even on the miner and upgrade to S9's (just transfer the cost of the PSU's from the S7's to the S9's in my calculations) but I am with Puffy on this, it would cost more BTC then it would generate so totally not worth it at the current price.  If BTC value continues to rise it may get to a point where it is worth it even at $2100 but we got a lot more value to go up before that happens.  I have never purchased BTC with fiat so all of my miners are purchased with BTC I already mined going back a while now.  It makes zero sense for me to buy a miner with BTC I already have that will generate less BTC than it costs.  Until that calculus changes I won't be buying one of these things.

Since you never purchase btc and only mine it that is more. Correct.


I buy btc when I need btc and I sell btc when I need cash.  So. I do not use btc for roi.

I purchased my batch one and batch 2 s-7 s with btc purchased from coinbase.  So I use fiat for my s-7 roi.



@generalalt. yeah I could use that in my friends office.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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June 07, 2016, 12:17:31 AM
 #338

Oh man I missed the release of this!

 I see everyone still doesn't take into account when you buy something like this u tend to be REPLACING other equipment.
  So to me $2100 is a steal, the equipment I sell I will get back around $1000.
no 220volt so I guess its EVGA 1600watt for $320 another costs to add on.
  And selling off that other equipment drops the electricity used by so much for me. insane. ugh can't believe I missed this!
where are more! lol

Hope these don't fry like usual first batches.


I wished there was a 1600w 120v server PSU instead of having to spend $320 on the EVGA.

I know how you feel.  I'd love to run on IBMs 2800s, but I simply don't have the electrical infrastructure to make it work.  I don't have the luxury of starting from scratch and ROI is tough enough without electrical modifications (and what would I do with a ton of 240V when I'm done mining).

That said, ATX PSUs are far too expensive to be a long term solution also.  What I did was grab a few 900W (on 115v) HP-DPS1200s and hard wired them for load sharing.  That effectively gives you an 1,800W server PSU for about $70.  Add the cost of cables and you're still way ahead when compared to EVGA.

Past 750W I don't think it makes sense to buy ATX.  I wish someone would push out a single, or even double, blade version of the high efficiency chips for home mining.
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June 07, 2016, 12:19:26 AM
 #339


@generalalt. yeah I could use that in my friends office.


Sidehack is working on a dual Dell 750 breakout board with 10 PCIe connectors!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1501428.msg15106357#msg15106357

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June 07, 2016, 12:29:49 AM
 #340

I have 3 S7's from 3 different batches and mining on Kano with greater than 100% luck, none of them have broken even yet, although 2 of them are close if I do not include the PSU.  But I do include the PSU in my ROI calculations since I buy them from newegg with BTC.  I bought brand new EVGA 1600's for the S7's so they were somewhere around 1 BTC each at the time of purchase.  So those two S7's need to generate about 1.2 BTC to break even on the miner itself plus the PSU.  My 3rd S7 is further behind, it needs another half bitcoin to get caught up to the other two, so 1.7 BTC to break even on the miner plus the PSU.  I expect I will probably break even on the miners by the halving but the PSU's may not get paid for for some time.  I could sell the S7's at or close to break even on the miner and upgrade to S9's (just transfer the cost of the PSU's from the S7's to the S9's in my calculations) but I am with Puffy on this, it would cost more BTC then it would generate so totally not worth it at the current price.  If BTC value continues to rise it may get to a point where it is worth it even at $2100 but we got a lot more value to go up before that happens.  I have never purchased BTC with fiat so all of my miners are purchased with BTC I already mined going back a while now.  It makes zero sense for me to buy a miner with BTC I already have that will generate less BTC than it costs.  Until that calculus changes I won't be buying one of these things.

I, personally, would carry over what remains to be paid towards your PSU's to your next rig (Bitmain S9) in terms of ROI.  You can sell an S7 for $250 plus buyer pays shipping right now.

However, I'm kind of having a hard time myself justifying if it's worth it right now at current price of BTC.  We are at a unique time in terms of our current bullish outlook of bitcoin price compared to the previous two years of bearish markets.

We could probably conclude the buyers of the S9 may do quite well [In terms of monthly profits] during the next three to four months of a rise in bitcoin price that out paces a rise in difficulty.  However, I'm speculating a bitcoin price rise as high as $1,500 the last quarter of 2016.

I'm expecting difficulty to drop down from our current 199,312,067,531 to around 187,000,000,000 by end of July and begin to increase about 5% on average every difficulty change from there until around end of August or September.  I'm expecting at least one manufacturer, whether it's BitFury, KNC, or some other manufacturer, to get next generation rigs up and running soon.  If another manufacturer begins adding next generation rigs to the network, we could see difficulty rises as high as 12% to 17% on average every difficulty change quite easily.  

IF BTC price increases to $1,000 USD, it will have risen 72.4 percent.  If difficulty increased 72.4 percent from 187,000,000,000, that would put difficulty at 322,388,000,000.  When difficulty changes a certain percentage each difficulty change, it is compounded each change.  For example,

If Difficulty was 187 Billion the end of July and increased 5% the first change in August, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increases another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increases another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increases another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increases 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs coming online.]
2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increases 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increases 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]

An increase in difficulty from 187.000 Billion to 322.388 Billion is an increase of 72.4 percent.  EDIT:  Looking back at the difficulty changes added up, one may think we increased 5% + 5% + 5%+ 5% + 15% + 15% + 11% = 61%.  However, the way it is compounded each increase actually makes this a 72.4 percent increase.

This means a projected rise in difficulty has matched a projected rise in BTC price by end of October, 2016.  Which see, if the price of Bitcoin went up to $1,000 by end of October [72.4 percent increase from current price] and the difficulty is 322.388 Billion [72.4 percent increase from projected lower difficulty in July of 187 Billion].

Here is what projected earnings look like with BTC price @ $1,000 and difficulty at 322,388,000,000:  Half of $655.20 (blocks halved) in a month = $327.60 (0.6552 BTC) before power costs the end of October, 2016.  EDIT:  This assumes you are on a pool with low fees and 100+ percent luck.  I am currently (kano.is).



Since our estimated ROI relies heavily upon our power costs, I'm leaving estimation of ROI up to each miner to calculate.  My estimations could be wrong on the percentage difficulty increases because I'm not sure how many S9's Bitmaintech can manufacture in a month.  I'm also not sure of when another manufacturer will add their next generation rigs to the network and how many they can manufacturer monthly.  

All of this is pure speculation on my part.  I'm offering up my speculation on difficulty for conversation among us all to determine whether it's wise to purchase the S9 or not at current price.

Projected BTC Price Movement on 3D (3-Day) Chart [Meaning each candle is 3-Days in duration]:  https://www.tradingview.com/x/tLfFQO1K//

EDIT:  Also, for those of you trading, I don't see this time being a pump and dump scheme.  That's what the whales want you to think when they fake out a dump, only to find they have created a trap to accumulate more BTC with the intent of pumping it further afterwards.  If this was a pump and dump scheme, they would have started the pump much sooner than what they did.  This time we will have a pump with very little dump and continue pumping again.  2016 will be a bullish year for bitcoin.  2017 through 2019 will be even more bullish than 2016.

Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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