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Author Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order  (Read 498702 times)
alienesb
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June 06, 2016, 01:42:05 PM
 #301

After plugging in the numbers into a calculator, and trying to factor in halving I am having a hard time figuring out how to ROI with the S9.  Maybe I am over estimating the impact of halving into the equation.  I even adjusted the BTC valuations up to $1000 USD and then factored the halving into the picture and still no ROI in a year.  So maybe I am doing this wrong.  Thoughts on ROI on the S9 and the impacts of halving?

Correction to my estimate:  Looks like the calculator says that if BTC is $1000 that you could see ROI in 8 months based on the effective TH drop by half.

The potential to ROI is probably better than with the S7 because I doubt we're going to see better chips within the next year. That said, you still might be better off getting a later batch after the halving which is the big elephant in the room.
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June 06, 2016, 01:51:53 PM
 #302

Good point. ASIC efficiency is probably about to plateau for a while. One consideration to add to that is S2 vs S1 - a more chip-dense machine with the same ASIC about half the per-hash power (for the current generation, probably about 0.6J/GH machine-level) will have a higher initial cost but a substantially longer viability. In that way I guess Bitmain has done hackers a favor going with a bucked string topology on later S7 and S9. For a regular joe it's actually worse than unregulated string because you get worse efficiency but if it can be hacked to adjustable voltage that potentially doubles (or more) the miner's effective lifetime.

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June 06, 2016, 02:02:38 PM
 #303

catching up some reading on S9.... Yes, I ordered a unit....

anyways, I never seen such a big congregation of "Legendary" and "Hero Member" all in one place....

I know several senior members from other threads but first time seeing other legends in the forum.....

it's like walking through the hall of fame of mining....

so much to learn from all of your guys.

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June 06, 2016, 02:23:33 PM
 #304

The way I see it, the price on these won't drop substantially until they have competition.  So the gamble is either to purchase now and reap the higher block reward for ~5 weeks to get a head start, or wait until the competition/halving comes for the price to drop.  I believe these will stay viable for a long time, longer than any generation prior, however the price is still too high. I don't expect more than 20-25% difficulty decrease in the periods following the halving, and still much of that will be eaten up by new hash rate.

Like many others, the B1 S7 left a very bad taste in my mouth, I'll pass and let those desperate enough to have the latest and greatest buy them up.

Being able to under-volt these and the S7's is going to be a lot more common/important than it was for past gens, only because there won't be a new higher-efficiency generation of miner to come out for quite a while.

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June 06, 2016, 02:50:31 PM
 #305

The way I see it, the price on these won't drop substantially until they have competition.  So the gamble is either to purchase now and reap the higher block reward for ~8 weeks to get a head start, or wait until the competition/halving comes for the price to drop.  I believe these will stay viable for a long time, longer than any generation prior, however the price is still too high. I don't expect more than 20-25% difficulty decrease in the periods following the halving, and still much of that will be eaten up by new hash rate.

Like many others, the B1 S7 left a very bad taste in my mouth, I'll pass and let those desperate enough to have the latest and greatest buy them up.

Being able to under-volt these and the S7's is going to be a lot more common/important than it was for past gens, only because there won't be a new higher-efficiency generation of miner to come out for quite a while.
Definitely, we are going to be on this nm chip for a while but if I am right the S3-S7 was all the same nm but bitmain efficiency and focus on it made them able to optimize it drastically, so we may see that but 16nm wasn't probably the easiest thing to do.




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June 06, 2016, 03:25:40 PM
 #306

Good point. ASIC efficiency is probably about to plateau for a while. One consideration to add to that is S2 vs S1 - a more chip-dense machine with the same ASIC about half the per-hash power (for the current generation, probably about 0.6J/GH machine-level) will have a higher initial cost but a substantially longer viability. In that way I guess Bitmain has done hackers a favor going with a bucked string topology on later S7 and S9. For a regular joe it's actually worse than unregulated string because you get worse efficiency but if it can be hacked to adjustable voltage that potentially doubles (or more) the miner's effective lifetime.

ahh an exotic pencil mod for the s-9

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June 06, 2016, 03:30:48 PM
 #307

Guys, don´t cut youreself regarding the efficiency of ASIC chips. Please remember were Bitfury and Spondoolies were in 10.2015....
I tend to say that manufacturers of ASIC chips leave the home miner always one GEN behind  Roll Eyes

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June 06, 2016, 03:38:47 PM
 #308

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

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June 06, 2016, 03:42:38 PM
 #309

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

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June 06, 2016, 03:50:28 PM
 #310

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...

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June 06, 2016, 04:07:51 PM
 #311

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

This is a great observation. I can't imagine there is going to be any cost-justification/meaningful-difference in power/performance going to 14nm.

EDIT: Also, you're 30 ? Damn. I would have figured you for an older, cynical fart like me. Bravo.
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June 06, 2016, 04:13:25 PM
 #312

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...



look at the pattern:

 s-1    2.00 watts
s-3     0.74 watts
s-5     0.51 watts
S-7    0.25 watts
S-9    0.10 watts

S-11 at worst goes to 0.07   based on the s-5 to s-7  


 I don't see  a 0.02 any time soon.

  I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about   that 0.07 s-11  unless   avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine.

The key for improvement is what does  avalon bitfury or bw do .

Since no one is near the .1 s-9


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June 06, 2016, 04:19:50 PM
 #313

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...
look at the pattern:

 s-1    2.00 watts
s-3     0.74 watts
s-5     0.51 watts
S-7    0.25 watts
S-9    0.10 watts

S-11 at worst goes to 0.07   based on the s-5 to s-7  


 I don't see  a 0.02 any time soon.

  I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about   that 0.07 s-11  unless   avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine.

The key for improvement is what does  avalon bitfury or bw do .

Since no one is near the .1 s-9


No need for them to push themselves when they are the top dog, Avalon and Bitfury take much longer to push things out compared to Bitmain as well.






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June 06, 2016, 05:16:11 PM
 #314

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...



look at the pattern:

 s-1    2.00 watts
s-3     0.74 watts
s-5     0.51 watts
S-7    0.25 watts
S-9    0.10 watts

S-11 at worst goes to 0.07   based on the s-5 to s-7  


 I don't see  a 0.02 any time soon.

  I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about   that 0.07 s-11  unless   avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine.

The key for improvement is what does  avalon bitfury or bw do .

Since no one is near the .1 s-9



BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now.

They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.

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June 06, 2016, 05:32:57 PM
 #315

They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.

^^^^ This is sooo true.  They have the ability to take a lot of customers from bitmain if they would do it.

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June 06, 2016, 06:41:54 PM
 #316


Pool wise, it does hash in Kano.is pool.  I'll try to take the screenshot of that in the late morning.


Can you do the same for p2pool please - seeing as you state that you support it in your Antpool OP?

Thank you.

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June 06, 2016, 06:54:48 PM
 #317

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...



look at the pattern:

 s-1    2.00 watts
s-3     0.74 watts
s-5     0.51 watts
S-7    0.25 watts
S-9    0.10 watts

S-11 at worst goes to 0.07   based on the s-5 to s-7  


 I don't see  a 0.02 any time soon.

  I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about   that 0.07 s-11  unless   avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine.

The key for improvement is what does  avalon bitfury or bw do .

Since no one is near the .1 s-9



I did a simple calculus, guess for youreself  Wink

- First ROW = Type of Miner
- Second ROW = Power Usage
- Third ROW = Efficiency compared to the predessecor

Code:
S1J/GH S3J/GH S5J/GH S7J/GH S9J/GH SN.A.J/GH
   2    0,74    0,51   0,25   0,1       0,04
      37,00% 68,92% 49,02% 40,00%    40,00%

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June 06, 2016, 06:55:54 PM
 #318

Spondoolies had simulation results at 0.15J/GH and BitFury was ordering engineering samples for a 0.06-0.15J/GH chip. Given that the BM1384 could run 0.25J/GH but the S5 was clocked at 0.45J/GH and the BM1385 could do 0.18J/GH but the S7 was clocked at about 0.26J/GH; if the S9 chip is clocked at 0.09J/GH we can assume it's probably got about 30% more efficiency hiding in the basement for a bottom clock around 0.06J/GH.

I'd bet that Bitmain and BitFury used all the tricks they'd already learned optimizing designs for 28nm on this 16nm chip. Is there probably room for more improvement? Seems likely. But I doubt we'll see another 30-50% drop in power use like we had with optimizations in previous generations.

I would say the same in re: to optimizations at design-level. My formula says by next June we would see efficiency as low as 0.02W/GH, but I think this time it might be wrong. I'd say 0.05-0.07 in the next 12 months, based mostly on increased chip density but that's just a guess.

I slightly tend to disagree with you guys. Just guessing, in the next 12 we will see the next GEN for home miners somewhere around 0,04J/GH, and the big guys will probably have something in in the 0,02J/GH range by the same time, just as they did with the previous chips. Just remember that this industry is worth a few billions, so there is put very much effort in the R&D to gain a significant volume of advance in respect to your opponents in this race.
I tend to predict, that BITMAIN is having a monopol at the moment speaking, and if AVALON and/or BITFURY (Not one running miner or container seen in the wild by now) don´t come up with something equal or more efficient, BITMAIN will stay in this monopol position just to play Monopoly in this industry...



look at the pattern:

 s-1    2.00 watts
s-3     0.74 watts
s-5     0.51 watts
S-7    0.25 watts
S-9    0.10 watts

S-11 at worst goes to 0.07   based on the s-5 to s-7  


 I don't see  a 0.02 any time soon.

  I also do not think bitmaintech need worry about   that 0.07 s-11  unless   avalon makes a 0.09 machine or bit fury makes a 0.085 machine.

The key for improvement is what does  avalon bitfury or bw do .

Since no one is near the .1 s-9



BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now.

They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.

I never saw a BW Machine in the wild...

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June 06, 2016, 07:14:04 PM
 #319


BW was actually first to .1 J/GH...I even have the chips in hand..of course they aren't selling anything publicly as of now.

They are in a position to undercut bitmain by a large margin, not sure why they don't capitalize on it. At least 1k of the S9 price is pure profit, and they can get away with it since they are the only ones selling 14/16nm stuff.

I think that BW have made a few external sales but have largely kept the Miners to themselves and for their Hash Investment Customers. Back in January when the new Miner first appeared the BW Pool was around 70PH they are now just under 200PH.

Rich


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June 06, 2016, 07:21:15 PM
 #320

Not only is the catch up (violation of Moore's Law over) but Moore's law itself has broken (we should have had 10nm Intel CPUs last year) The very first 10nm chips have only just been made.  10nm mass production capability is at least 1 year away. 

Maybe Bitmain will make a BAMF 14 or 16nm chip that is significantly better, but I'm guessing not; it's much harder to design finFET than 28nm chips.  This leads me to believe: the minor price reduction we will get on S9's after 2nd halving will be about it for the better portion of a year; as it was with the S5. I'm going to wait till 3rd batch before getting a mini farm of these.

It would be nice if Bitmain made a lower chip / power version, but the S9 is very optimized for them so I won't hold my breath.

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