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Author Topic: Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order  (Read 507176 times)
adaseb
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June 03, 2016, 12:25:43 AM
 #161

I really hope they release the next batch soon, because I have already started selling my S7's and was too slow for the first batch

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Sure you probably make more by just buying and Holding BTC ,,  but where is the fun in that

you are better off if batch 2 comes after ½ ing.

Just keep selling your s-7's and  then hold ½ in cash and ½ in btc.

When the time comes get an s-9 or 2.

there is 400ph in gear older then the s-7  it all dies at the ½ ing .

So there will be a 10 to 15% drop in hashrate.  By bitmaintech holding back on the s-9  doing moderate self mining.  They will make their share of coin.  You will be able to order the batch 2 and get a crack at some money. Around July 4th.

I looked at what happened in November 28th 2012 for the last halving. Yes, it looked like a 30 day period the hash rate went down about 10%. But in another 30 days it was close to the original level.

So if history is any guide (and what else do we have?) then we'll lose about 138 PH/s for a couple of months between July 10th and September 10th. After that it will be business as usual.

I'm not sure where you came up with your 400 PH/s number, but maybe I'm missing something. I'm a bit jet lagged so I'm not sure my math is right.

okay 400 ph was the network size last sept

see below from bitcoinwisdom

Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s


all of that is older less efficient then the s-7 or avalon 6

much of it  turns to junk at the ½
current hash is 1,426,731,353 gh


May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s


so my thoughts   are if we grow to 1,600,000,000 up to the ½ ing we drop that 400,000,000 and will be at 1,200,000,000

a diff of 166  vs current diff of 199

Out of the 400PH, I am pretty sure most of that hashrate was the S4/S5/SP20 which will still keep running under free electricity.

The S3 and older will probably get mostly turned off.


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June 03, 2016, 01:43:38 AM
 #162

Out of the 400PH, I am pretty sure most of that hashrate was the S4/S5/SP20 which will still keep running under free electricity.

The S3 and older will probably get mostly turned off.



I'm not sure on S5's there are still some places that have "free" or super cheap electricity.   The "free" electricity if they get some bargins on old gear espically.   Granted it is a smaller and smaller subset. And is most cases someone is still footing the bill for the electricity.

But I think S5's will remain on in some places even after having.   I'm not that lucky though I will be needing to be S7 or S9 myself after having.   (Kinda depends on what BTC does)
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June 03, 2016, 01:54:31 AM
 #163

I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)

Sometimes there's more truth in forums than anywhere else.  Twitter:  @cryptobitchicks   "I am expressing multiple attitudes simultaneously. To which are you referring?"
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June 03, 2016, 02:27:36 AM
 #164

I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)

GPU mining again,NO MOAR ASIC's fer me!!!  Cheesy

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June 03, 2016, 04:30:30 AM
 #165

I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)

GPU mining again,NO MOAR ASIC's fer me!!!  Cheesy

I'm not up on this..but what are they figuring 2 more months with ethereum mining is good yet..with the increase in difficulty etc? the that is kinda all she wrote?

curious

(on the other hand a GPU card gets about 2x the $$$ then 1 Titan cube at 2x the price at least how I figured it a month ago...probably Titan cube is not that quite that bad now)















 

 

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AriesIV10
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June 03, 2016, 04:31:48 AM
 #166

I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)

Mining is just getting interesting.  

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June 03, 2016, 04:34:24 AM
 #167

good to see that hopes are high but on the other hand, some might be too "high" on what ever that 1 might be smoking, eating or drinking . . .

if 1 thinks//assumes//calculates//hopes :

-BTC price to go up & MAINTAIN at a certain value (what if it doesn't hold long enough for 1 to achieve ROI & make a little profit ?)

-if 1 thinks that if he/she is the ONLY 1 who knows how to mine/upgrade using an S9 & sell off older miners then it's very wrong, because it is the BIG boys game now UNLESS 1 have almost ZERO to NONE maint. costs. & many others will also know to do so too Wink "technically" the global hashrate stays pretty much the same or if not it may even go up !

-hmmm i don't even want to add in downtime such as warranty claims, broken psu or catches fire, fan separation or what so ever & we all know that it's gonna take some time to get the parts back from warranty let alone a reply from the manufacturer, i hope 1 takes this into consideration when it comes to ROI.

-most guys calc the ROI based on 100% luck mining at pool, not everyday is sunday mate, take that into account too.

bla bla bla & the lists goes on & on, not trying to be a bit*H here & i hope someone does look into those points as a +ve 1.

in the meanwhile, leaning back, munching the popcorns & wait for a drop, might get 1 or a few when time is right.

Thank you for the post, one of the best description on the reality of mining... I could add some points to the lists easy.

I am sure you will be back
I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)

GPU mining again,NO MOAR ASIC's fer me!!!  Cheesy

I am sure you will be back!

I think my mining days are completely over. Bummer, I miss the noise and extra winter heat ;-)

Mining is just getting interesting. 

Small time miner have the advantage to be able to use the heat...

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June 03, 2016, 05:19:54 AM
 #168

They are no longer for sale on the website.  Are they sold out?

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June 03, 2016, 06:00:46 AM
 #169

They are no longer for sale on the website.  Are they sold out?

Yes. Consider yourself lucky.

Hopefully we won't have to wait too many batches before the price makes sense.

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June 03, 2016, 06:10:09 AM
 #170

Is there anything even remotely close to this performance?

 Bitfury's chip has demonstrated comparable performance, if they ever get the bloody thing into MINERS available for sale - depending on how hard they push for hash/chip vs efficiency, they could IN THEORY top the S9 efficiency.

 On the other hand, Bitmain is probably not running THEIR new chip at max efficiency, it was amazing the initial batches of the S7 showed up at the mid-point of the chip's operating range rather than at the top of the voltage range / least efficient point like the later, lower-chip-count batches went to.



 I suspect that "yield limit" issues are behind the low available numbers (so far) on the S9. I'm sure the numbers will ramp up with each batch - not to mention they probably kept quite a few (probably a majority) of the initial month or two of unit manufacture for internal farm/Hashnest use.


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June 03, 2016, 07:16:10 AM
 #171

anyone can calculate how long can take profit after halving Roll Eyes

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June 03, 2016, 07:18:46 AM
 #172

anyone can calculate how long can take profit after halving Roll Eyes

Let me look into my crystal balls,yep gonna be winter for 7 more weeks  Grin

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June 03, 2016, 01:06:40 PM
 #173

They are no longer for sale on the website.  Are they sold out?

They are sold out. So you are lucky to get you. But you might not get ROI if the difficulty rises too fast.

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June 03, 2016, 02:00:30 PM
 #174

And btc keeps rising..  about 120$ per machine roi had one bought coin instead of s9.  Same happen with s7.  hmmmm

This is still about making money correct?? Not loaning it out for 12 months with hopes of some interest.  Or the hopes of dumping it on some poor math inept individual.

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June 03, 2016, 02:46:53 PM
 #175

And btc keeps rising..  about 120$ per machine roi had one bought coin instead of s9.  Same happen with s7.  hmmmm

This is still about making money correct?? Not loaning it out for 12 months with hopes of some interest.  Or the hopes of dumping it on some poor math inept individual.

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Doooode, are you the only punter here who doesn't realize that BTC is going to be worth a gazillion dollars real soon now ?
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June 03, 2016, 02:57:53 PM
 #176

When the next batch of S9's become available and assuming that the price will still be 2100 USD (I am not intending on starting a debate on what the price will be), does Bitmain adjust the BTC amount to reflect the current exchange rate of BTC/USD? 
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June 03, 2016, 04:06:23 PM
 #177

When the next batch of S9's become available and assuming that the price will still be 2100 USD (I am not intending on starting a debate on what the price will be), does Bitmain adjust the BTC amount to reflect the current exchange rate of BTC/USD? 

Generally yes.  BUT they only do it once per batch from what I've noticed (mind you I dont pay real close attention).

So they set the price when the batch is made available for purchase and the BTC cost stays the same (even if the BTC/USD price changes) until the next.

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June 03, 2016, 05:44:49 PM
 #178

It looks like I'll cover 75% of the cost by selling 3 S7's  -- So it is a no-brainer  -- if I can get stock

Well, I don't see how this is actually a no-brainer.  You are exchanging 14TH/s for a more efficient 14TH/s, not actually increasing your hash rate.  With the sale of your S7s covering 75% of the cost to upgrade you are still paying a minimum of $525 for that increased efficiency.  That's if you had already taken into account the shipping and customs/VAT <- depending on location.  If you simply mean 75% of $2,100 you are probably likely paying close to $600 for that increased efficiency.

The average cost to run 3 S7s for a month is $180 from what I've experienced and what I've seen other share.  The S9 will potentially lower that bill to $60.  That means you are saving $120/month with the S9 in place of the 3 S7.  So that efficiency upgrade will, by itself, will take 5 months to ROI.

But that isn't the end of the story.  Have you already hit ROI on your S7s?  If not, you didn't pay one investment off before buying another.  That means whatever you had left to ROI on the S7s must be accomplished by the S9.  The S9 can concurrently contribute to both the efficiency upgrade and the initial investment which does help out.  Depending on the batch of S7s you could have anywhere between 0-7 months of hashing remaining to ROI.

Best case scenario, you already hit ROI on a triple Batch 1 S7 setup and can focus the entire profit of the S9 into that $500-$600 investment for energy efficiency.  In this case, you're right, no-brainer.  That would be a quick 2 month ROI.  Worst case scenario you still have 5-7 months to ROI on your current S7 setup.  This would mean your shortest ROI period is 5 months, with the longest being approximately 6 months (5 months to ROI on the energy savings investment running concurrently with the 5 months to ROI on the initial investment.  After 5 months, the energy savings can then be applied to the initial investment closing the gap from 2 remaining months to potentially a single month).

So without knowing exactly what batch S7 you have or the remaining months to ROI on that investment it is hard to say, but you could be facing anything from 2 months to 6 months to ROI.  As you're selling your S7 now, that timer won't start until you receive the S9.

I don't see how anything about that was a no-brainer.  I would have to give serious thought about taking on a 6 month ROI.  That's quite a bit of risk considering all the variables and potential for failure and having every egg in a single S9 basket.
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June 03, 2016, 05:51:57 PM
 #179

anyone can calculate how long can take profit after halving Roll Eyes

 Anyone can ESTIMATE it - but there are a lot of variables involved, and 2 of them (network hashrate which sets difficulty) and price are going to be guesstimates at BEST.

 Very few folks anticipated the release of the S7 driving difficulty back into double-digit increases per adjustment for several MONTHS - which wiped out the price gains and then some over that same time frame, though the price gains were a lot faster which gave a short-lived "income increase" to those of us that were mining at the time.

There is always a RISK factor involved in mining - the risk that diff will go up more than price (or that price will DROP) and reduce profitability enough to make an investment into mining hardware lose money. That risk is helped a LOT if you have very low cost electric, as your profit is more resistant to diff increases and price drops, and it *ALMOST* disappears if your electric is free (you still have the risk of the hardware dying before it pays back for itself), but it's still there and you CAN'T "calculate" it, you can only ESTIMATE it.


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June 03, 2016, 05:57:56 PM
 #180

When the next batch of S9's become available and assuming that the price will still be 2100 USD (I am not intending on starting a debate on what the price will be), does Bitmain adjust the BTC amount to reflect the current exchange rate of BTC/USD? 

Generally yes.  BUT they only do it once per batch from what I've noticed (mind you I dont pay real close attention).

So they set the price when the batch is made available for purchase and the BTC cost stays the same (even if the BTC/USD price changes) until the next.

In the past there have been two ways Bitmain sets the price: USD (and BTC price floats according to the exchange rate) or BTC (and USD price floats).

S9 B1 price was set in USD and the BTC price was floating. The exchange rate is at the bottom of every page on the Bitmain website. It might be lagging from the usual Bitstamp/Coinbase/etc rates, often in Bitmain's favor Smiley, but generally accurate.

How they will set B2 price is anybody's guess.

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