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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3039472 times)
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September 25, 2013, 10:57:19 AM
 #10621

I was just taking a look to this prediction for a Jupiter:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=148623691.94537259&dcosts=7500&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=500000&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=128.53&dpowcon=650&btcusd_mincrease=0&pcost=0.25&calcweeks=20&dleadtime=1&action=calc#

Some notes:
- Optimistic hashrate of 500GH/s
- The cost of 7500 is including upgrade from Saturn to Jupiter, sending costs, power supply, etc.
- The difficulty setting I think that is conservative as it decreases too fast when we know that many asics are coming and it will contain higher jumps.
- If they deliver one week later is even worst.

Even registered as a company with electricity expenses covered and mining device as company expenses I don't really see any point. I am seriously thinking to cancel my order. Do you really think that there are still chances for ROI? Any suggestions?

Thanks!




cancel that shit....be a naysayer on your bad decisions elsewhere  Tongue

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FeedbackLoop
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September 25, 2013, 10:59:43 AM
 #10622

I was just taking a look to this prediction for a Jupiter:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=148623691.94537259&dcosts=7500&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=500000&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=128.53&dpowcon=650&btcusd_mincrease=0&pcost=0.25&calcweeks=20&dleadtime=1&action=calc#

Some notes:
- Optimistic hashrate of 500GH/s
- The cost of 7500 is including upgrade from Saturn to Jupiter, sending costs, power supply, etc.
- The difficulty setting I think that is conservative as it decreases too fast when we know that many asics are coming and it will contain higher jumps.
- If they deliver one week later is even worst.

Even registered as a company with electricity expenses covered and mining device as company expenses I don't really see any point. I am seriously thinking to cancel my order. Do you really think that there are still chances for ROI? Any suggestions?

Thanks!


cancel that shit....be a naysayer on your bad decisions elsewhere  Tongue

He has a good calculation and I as certainly many others would also like to see comments on it. Comments up to this point have focused on the genesisblock calculator. This calculation includes steps and a tapering growth rate.

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September 25, 2013, 11:04:33 AM
 #10623

I was just taking a look to this prediction for a Jupiter:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=148623691.94537259&dcosts=7500&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=500000&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=128.53&dpowcon=650&btcusd_mincrease=0&pcost=0.25&calcweeks=20&dleadtime=1&action=calc#

Some notes:
- Optimistic hashrate of 500GH/s
- The cost of 7500 is including upgrade from Saturn to Jupiter, sending costs, power supply, etc.
- The difficulty setting I think that is conservative as it decreases too fast when we know that many asics are coming and it will contain higher jumps.
- If they deliver one week later is even worst.

Even registered as a company with electricity expenses covered and mining device as company expenses I don't really see any point. I am seriously thinking to cancel my order. Do you really think that there are still chances for ROI? Any suggestions?

Thanks!


cancel that shit....be a naysayer on your bad decisions elsewhere  Tongue

He has a good calculation and I would also like to see comments on it.


The calculation looked ok.  The ROI drops off rapidly, but it still look like it's worth mining until you have about 40BTC then maybe sell the rig, or try and running it under clocked for more ROI.
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September 25, 2013, 11:12:17 AM
Last edit: September 25, 2013, 11:30:39 AM by Puppet
 #10624

He has a good calculation and I as certainly many others would also like to see comments on it. Comments up to this point have focused on the genesisblock calculator. This calculation includes steps and a tapering growth rate.

Didnt KnC expect to ship 500TH in the first batch (supposedly september) ? If so, there is no way the next difficulty jump (after todays) would only be to 199,126,888. Even if everyone else stopped shipping, the network hashrate would be the current 1200 TH + KnC's 500TH  which gives a D of  ~240M instead of 200M. And I doubt BFL, Bitfury and others will stop shipping, in reality it will be above that, even after taking latency in to account.

Of course I dont expect every KnC customer to receive and deploy their miner next week either, but that only makes  it worse for those not getting their KnC gear in time.

Another thought is that the decreasing growth may not be incorrect over time, but in the coming months, I would expect the exact opposite. As KnC/Cointerra/Bitmine/whatever all receive their new chips over the course of ~2 months, I would expect to see a dramatic acceleration of the network growth compared to today. Perhaps early next year that will reverse, and the rate of growth may decrease (in %/day),  but surely not in the coming months which are crucial for the ROI of most current asic preorders.
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September 25, 2013, 11:13:35 AM
 #10625

The calculation looked ok.  The ROI drops off rapidly, but it still look like it's worth mining until you have about 40BTC then maybe sell the rig, or try and running it under clocked for more ROI.
Maybe is not a bad idea to sell it later. I could mine for one month and sell it with PSU. To the buyer it would be cheaper than the new units from KNC that will deliver in november for 5000 USD.
Thanks for the idea!
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September 25, 2013, 11:41:41 AM
 #10626

I also have the strong feeling that too much hashing power got sold in batch 1 - in case they deliver 2-3 Petas until mid Oct we see 500m+ diff soon. Doom for everyone...  Undecided

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September 25, 2013, 11:45:05 AM
 #10627

The calculation looked ok.  The ROI drops off rapidly, but it still look like it's worth mining until you have about 40BTC then maybe sell the rig, or try and running it under clocked for more ROI.
Maybe is not a bad idea to sell it later. I could mine for one month and sell it with PSU. To the buyer it would be cheaper than the new units from KNC that will deliver in november for 5000 USD.
Thanks for the idea!

Are you sure you make that much coins in October that you can sell it with profit in November ?

Sorry, I doubt it, except their 'under promise - over delivery' turns out as 'margins upon margins upon margins' regarding ROI, since the delivery date could not be meant for sure.

Maybe there's a freebee for everyone?
They would make less profit but still more than enough for sure, with one huge difference: customers are getting ROI and will be happy/order again.

When KnC does not offer any kind of compensation in case things work out as worse as they currently look...I'm wondering who will buy gen2.
Ok, maybe through articles in economic magazines and their 'reseller' program they might find enough greedy persons wanting a 'money printing machine' and lack of knowledge about competition..

*edit: typo

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September 25, 2013, 11:47:49 AM
 #10628

I also have the strong feeling that too much hashing power got sold in batch 1 - in case they deliver 2-3 Petas until mid Oct we see 500m+ diff soon. Doom for everyone...  Undecided

exactly

When selling miners you have in general three choices:

1) Sell a limited amount at a very high price
2) Sell as much as you can for a lower price
So customers are happy with their investment (making ROI).

3) Sell as many as you can at the highest price acceptable or even above it, which results in losses for buyers and max profit for you.


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September 25, 2013, 11:59:44 AM
 #10629

I also have the strong feeling that too much hashing power got sold in batch 1 - in case they deliver 2-3 Petas until mid Oct we see 500m+ diff soon. Doom for everyone...  Undecided

exactly

When selling miners you have in general three choices:

1) Sell a limited amount at a very high price
2) Sell as much as you can for a lower price
So customers are happy with their investment (making ROI).

3) Sell as many as you can at the highest price acceptable or even above it, which results in losses for buyers and max profit for you.



You are right - even option 3) is valid in a free market. No one forces people to buy. Still - As a responsible company, KnC must have anticipated their impact on the network somehow. I have the impression they did, but closed order books a few weeks too late imho.

I guess this is also the reason why we dont see canceled Oct batch orders on their page for sale - they realized it is better to hold 'em back...

In case they really sold & deliver 2-3 Petas until mid Oct we can hug them for beeing good engineers - but thats it... strategic/ responsible thinking = 0 - I would be very disappointed.

I made several investment scenarios. But 500m+ diff by mid/end of Oct beats even my worst case scenario by far - getting worried, so sad  Embarrassed

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September 25, 2013, 12:10:52 PM
 #10630

Like I've said in a few speculation threads (so far my diff projections have been almost spot on), I'm pretty sure we are only on the brink of rise. It will be vertical for quite awhile. It will plateau eventually, but people even with the large machines, will feel the struggle just to churn out what block erupters are doing today.

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September 25, 2013, 12:13:11 PM
 #10631

That said we only KnC's package size, not die size. Large package size, does not necessarily correlate to a large die size.

Ill grant you that, but I havent heard anyone refute hashfast's argument that the minimum estimate of KnC's die size based on the package/underfull dimensions would be on the order of 900mm³. Thats not just a little bit bigger, thats an epic size.
...

I'm sure most here don't care if KNC chips are, indeed, full-custom or standard cell -- as long as the performance is within spec.  I know there are some 28nm fetishists around, who think 28nm node = god, but hopefully Bitfury 55nm chips castrated their nanolust.

It's not the 28nm fetish-ing, it's just plain blindness when somebody claim that it is unimportant that your 28nm chip burns 60% more electricity per GH than your 55nm competitor (measured) and 100% more than the rest of the 28nm camp (expected). Only thing left is to jump to conclusion that everyone else is lying and to ask for Bitfury miner screenshots in disbelief. Yeah, it will surely be unimportant in march next year when every watt will be counted if your miner is plugged from the wall or not  Roll Eyes
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September 25, 2013, 12:22:33 PM
 #10632

Can those asics be down clocked in order to improve the W per GH/s significantly ?
I'm not aware of infos regading this or I might have missed it somehow.

1.6W per GH/s seems quite bad in long term, no?
If your competition is mining at 1Watt per GH/s or less,  then yes that's bad, as it means they can pump up the net hash until you can no longer afford to mine, and they still can, unless you can find cheaper electricity.



What I think that people don't realize is that by the time the cost of electricity comes into play, the network hash rate has made your device practically obsolete anyway.

Example. I live in the north east of the US with fairly high power costs - $0.20/kwh. It'll cost me around $114 or approximately 1 BTC at today's prices to run the unit. Presuming BTC/USD prices stay the same, by the time that it no longer produces 1 BTC per month I'm not going to be very interested in running my Jupiter and getting only 0.0009259% of the 3600 BTC mined per day.

http://www.electricity-usage.com/Electricity-Usage-Calculator.aspx?Device=Jupiter&Watts=850&CostPerKWH=0.20&HoursPerDay=24

$/Gh and timing of delivery matters far more than watts/Gh.

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September 25, 2013, 12:25:02 PM
Last edit: September 25, 2013, 12:35:15 PM by Bitcoinorama
 #10633

That said we only KnC's package size, not die size. Large package size, does not necessarily correlate to a large die size.

Ill grant you that, but I havent heard anyone refute hashfast's argument that the minimum estimate of KnC's die size based on the package/underfull dimensions would be on the order of 900mm³. Thats not just a little bit bigger, thats an epic size.
...

I'm sure most here don't care if KNC chips are, indeed, full-custom or standard cell -- as long as the performance is within spec.  I know there are some 28nm fetishists around, who think 28nm node = god, but hopefully Bitfury 55nm chips castrated their nanolust.

It's not the 28nm fetish-ing, it's just plain blindness when somebody claim that it is unimportant that your 28nm chip burns 60% more electricity per GH (unmeasured worst case prediction)than your 55nm competitor (measured) and 100% more than the rest of the 28nm camp (expected) (the only thing that is expected is that simulated best case results have never equalled the reality of Bitcoin mining ASICS, have they? So better to be responsible, and err upon the side of caution, as engineering over marketing dictates). Only thing left is to jump to conclusion that everyone else is lying and to ask for Bitfury miner screenshots in disbelief (if that's a dig at me, get your fact's straight. I never once claimed any disbelief, just requested video as the products are in the wild for a baseline comparison of w/Gh/s as people are so keen to draw comparisons once KnC's data is to hand. Again go and check who posted congrats to Punin about three posts after he announced the Bitfury boards were populated and complete; https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250249.msg2911187#msg2911187 Wink). Yeah, it will surely be unimportant in march next year when every watt will be counted if your miner is plugged from the wall or not  Roll Eyes (Perhaps, by that point you could always underclock kit, or move on to next gen - nothing lasts forever, especially at the rate at which Bitcoin mining tech is racing towards the smallest feasible die shrink, if the BTC price justifies a worthwhile investment)

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September 25, 2013, 12:33:47 PM
 #10634

Like I've said in a few speculation threads (so far my diff projections have been almost spot on), I'm pretty sure we are only on the brink of rise. It will be vertical for quite awhile. It will plateau eventually, but people even with the large machines, will feel the struggle just to churn out what block erupters are doing today.

Hehe - I will have a look at your thread - but KnC was the 'black swan' for most models including my own

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September 25, 2013, 12:37:34 PM
 #10635

(...)

$/Gh and timing of delivery matters far more than watts/Gh.

Depends I'd say.

It depends one the environment: competitor's $ per GH/s, W per GH/s  as well as shipping date and total amount to be shipped

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September 25, 2013, 12:41:30 PM
 #10636


Set the "lower difficulty increase / jump" to more realistic 4% or even 5%.
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September 25, 2013, 12:48:34 PM
 #10637

That said we only KnC's package size, not die size. Large package size, does not necessarily correlate to a large die size.

Ill grant you that, but I havent heard anyone refute hashfast's argument that the minimum estimate of KnC's die size based on the package/underfull dimensions would be on the order of 900mm³. Thats not just a little bit bigger, thats an epic size.
...

I'm sure most here don't care if KNC chips are, indeed, full-custom or standard cell -- as long as the performance is within spec.  I know there are some 28nm fetishists around, who think 28nm node = god, but hopefully Bitfury 55nm chips castrated their nanolust.

It's not the 28nm fetish-ing, it's just plain blindness when somebody claim that it is unimportant that your 28nm chip burns 60% more electricity per GH (unmeasured worst case prediction)than your 55nm competitor (measured) and 100% more than the rest of the 28nm camp (expected) (the only thing that is expected is that simulated best case results have never equalled the reality of Bitcoin mining ASICS, have they? So better to be responsible, and err upon the side of caution, as engineering over marketing dictates). Only thing left is to jump to conclusion that everyone else is lying and to ask for Bitfury miner screenshots in disbelief (if that's a dig at me, get your fact's straight. I never once claimed any disbelief, just requested video as the products are in the wild for a baseline comparison of w/Gh/s as people are so keen to draw comparisons once KnC's data is to hand. Again go and check who posted congrats to Punin about three posts after he announced the Bitfury boards were populated and complete; https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250249.msg2911187#msg2911187 Wink). Yeah, it will surely be unimportant in march next year when every watt will be counted if your miner is plugged from the wall or not  Roll Eyes (Perhaps, by that point you could always underclock kit, or move on to next gen - nothing lasts forever, especially at the rate at which Bitcoin mining tech is racing towards the smallest feasible die shrink, if the BTC price justifies a worthwhile investment)

If the point of all that red ink you spilled across my post is to make it unreadable - you made it, congratulations. But that does not make your points relevant if you put them in red for some reason, you just look silly since there is not a single argument in these red letters.

I don't want to get into shouting competition with you, I've just wanted to point to an argument. But it's your way to mask the arguments with all kind of noise, be it a wall of text or red letters or something else.
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September 25, 2013, 12:48:40 PM
 #10638

(...)

$/Gh and timing of delivery matters far more than watts/Gh.

Depends I'd say.

It depends one the environment: competitor's $ per GH/s, W per GH/s  as well as shipping date and total amount to be shipped

Sort'a true.  The thing to keep in mind is profits fall exponentially as the difficulty climbs exponentially.  Power consumption becomes increasingly relevant with time, but, at the point when it begins to matter (coins mined ~= cost of electricity), being 50% more energy-efficient only buys you an extra month of mining at a ridiculously low profit (if the difficulty doubles during that month).
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September 25, 2013, 12:50:14 PM
 #10639

The calculation looked ok.  The ROI drops off rapidly, but it still look like it's worth mining until you have about 40BTC then maybe sell the rig, or try and running it under clocked for more ROI.
Maybe is not a bad idea to sell it later. I could mine for one month and sell it with PSU. To the buyer it would be cheaper than the new units from KNC that will deliver in november for 5000 USD.
Thanks for the idea!

Like anyone is gonna give a dime for a big box of electronics that wastes money.

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September 25, 2013, 12:53:25 PM
 #10640


Set the "lower difficulty increase / jump" to more realistic 4% or even 5%.


i´d rather put in 250 or even 300 mio diff to start with and only +15% change after this. after knc has shipped it will be unlikely that 30 % increases will happen. who will ship this much ?
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