Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Gold will always be the ultimate money. The only but very important advantage of bitcoin compared to gold is that bitcoin is cheaper to audit and provide proof of reserves.

Ummm... bitcoin is not just cheaper to audit and POR, but for Gold it is neigh *impossible* to audit/show proof.  Countries can't just call each other's bluff on true Gold reserves (if there even are any) and go take a peek, so everyone is just playing the fractional reserve game of "I'm telling you what we have, so you just have to believe me". Usually at the point of a gun.

It's all bullshit, of course. All the supposed Gold reserves backing all the ETFs are long gone. Probably to the private vaults of the Rothschilds, our evil overlords.

A true worldwide run on Gold (i.e., physical possession) would come up empty for many large and small investors.

[JayJuanGee]

Gold will always be the ultimate money. The only but very important advantage of bitcoin compared to gold is that bitcoin is cheaper to audit and provide proof of reserves.

Ummm... bitcoin is not just cheaper to audit and POR, but for Gold it is neigh *impossible* to audit/show proof.  Countries can't just call each other's bluff on true Gold reserves (if there even are any) and go take a peek, so everyone is just playing the fractional reserve game of "I'm telling you what we have, so you just have to believe me". Usually at the point of a gun.

It's all bullshit, of course. All the supposed Gold reserves backing all the ETFs are long gone. Probably to the private vaults of the Rothschilds, our evil overlords.

A true worldwide run on Gold (i.e., physical possession) would come up empty for many large and small investors.

Can you imagine the enormity of any kind of proof of reserves (POR) in gold, talking physical product - of tons of the stuff? 

And, how do you determine exactly that some of the reserves are not inflated with Tungsten or some similar other kinds of smoke and mirrors? 

Yeah, we got paper gold problems, which involves considerable fractional reserves, too...

And, sure bitcoin has a bit of that fractional reserve stuff going on, but in the end, if push comes to shove POR remains quite a bit easier to get a grasp upon, especially if someone (or entity) were truly wanting to establish some semblance of POR.. or proof of holdings.

[toknormal]

Hobular market moves afoot again.

It's reaching for that Oct 23rd 4575 shot. 2-Hour momentum moveing average crossing over. If that pushes the 4-hour chart into the green then it may have a chance.

The expectations are there at least. Alts are dumping.

*****

We're up to 4550 now. 25 to go. Volume coming up....4560...

[podyx]

Feeling a pump coming this week...

[marcus_of_augustus]

[toknormal]

...thats it. We've broken out of that little 3-day correction.

Bears were not able to push it down enough to correct beyond the 4-hour chart which is now about to turn positive again. Lets see what happens now. We need that 5180 for escape velocity.

[AZwarel]

Interesting.

Tuesday/Wednesday bullrun?

[Torque]

And, how do you determine exactly that some of the reserves are not inflated with Tungsten or some similar other kinds of smoke and mirrors?

I agree, exactly. No country is ever going to let a rep from any other country come and personally inspect their Gold vault holdings for complete Proof of Reserve. Never gonna happen. Especially when they are holding some other countries' gold as well.

With Bitcoin, it's easy and transparent.  If you and only you control the private key(s), then you control the bitcoin. So you either have control, or you don't.

And transferring control of Bitcoin is equally trivial. None of this "it'll take another 25 years to repudiate all the Gold back" horseshit.
https://www.rt.com/business/336405-germany-gold-reserves-return/

[JayJuanGee]

...thats it. We've broken out of that little 3-day correction.

Bears were not able to push it down enough to correct beyond the 4-hour chart which is now about to turn positive again. Lets see what happens now. We need that 5180 for escape velocity.

I don't necessarily disagree with either your analysis or your conclusion(s), but why are you using chinese prices and chinese charts and chinese exchanges to discuss this matter?

[cmacwiz]

I have been disinterested for a while as the Core vs Classic vs XT made me leave the kitchen table of a bickering family. I was brought back for a minute after the $780 foothill, but as we ascend again I can't help but feel excited. I've held, and accumulated quite slowly after Gox. The new direction of development is at least stable and more predictable than it was 6 months ago. At the end of the day I just want to pay off student loans (with BTC hopefully) and I have never felt more comfortable holding BTC than I do now, post halving with a bright future to come (cue drop to sub $600  ).

[toknormal]

I don't necessarily disagree with either your analysis or your conclusion(s), but why are you using chinese prices and chinese charts and chinese exchanges to discuss this matter?

Because the American exchanges are meaningless in terms of trend.

They just follow the lead of the Chinese. Always have.

Yuan devaluations get reflected quite quickly in the Bitcoin price.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't necessarily disagree with either your analysis or your conclusion(s), but why are you using chinese prices and chinese charts and chinese exchanges to discuss this matter?

Because the American exchanges are meaningless in terms of trend.

They just follow the lead of the Chinese. Always have.

Yuan devaluations get reflected quite quickly in the Bitcoin price.

We can agree to disagree.

Surely, I cannot disagree with accounting for Chinese exchanges, but if you are considering them as "the leaders" you are likely going to be "off," frequently, but do what you like, and surely people can take your analysis with a grain of salt, if they realize that you are looking at the "lead" matter in that kind of way.

[Scofield]

I don't necessarily disagree with either your analysis or your conclusion(s), but why are you using chinese prices and chinese charts and chinese exchanges to discuss this matter?

Because the American exchanges are meaningless in terms of trend.

They just follow the lead of the Chinese. Always have.

Yuan devaluations get reflected quite quickly in the Bitcoin price.

I agree the Chinese often lead those pumps. Rarely we see a pump coming from Bitfinex, but I doubt it know after the scandals. Looks like most people moved their coins from there.

Anyway the CNY is indeed dropping like a rock, and this is reflecting in BTC/CNY price for sure.



1W Chart

[toknormal]

Surely, I cannot disagree with accounting for Chinese exchanges, but if you are considering them as "the leaders" you are likely going to be "off," frequently, but do what you like, and surely people can take your analysis with a grain of salt, if they realize that you are looking at the "lead" matter in that kind of way.

You maybe right, but I've never regarded the US as much more than an idle observer when it comes to bitcoin volume. Technology-wise it's different of course since much, if not most of the developmental work is Western based.

In particular, the entire trading pattern of the last 2.5 years is largely characterised by the two 2013 spikes, one of which ostensibly originated in the Mediteranean Countries (April) and the other in China (December). Even when that bubble burst it co-incided with the Chinese authorities snap-regulating the fiat gateways in that country.

I think the rest of the world just got dragged along for the ride.

[toknormal]

Wow. That was some mega dump.

It all came back out in seconds flat. 8000 BTC = $5.2 Million dump in 1 minute ?

You don't do that to maximise gain. You do it to quench rallies.

[TeeBone]

Stamp bearwhale from last year back ?

[AZwarel]

I think this is appropriate now:

[toknormal]

I think this is appropriate now:

LoL !

[JayJuanGee]

Surely, I cannot disagree with accounting for Chinese exchanges, but if you are considering them as "the leaders" you are likely going to be "off," frequently, but do what you like, and surely people can take your analysis with a grain of salt, if they realize that you are looking at the "lead" matter in that kind of way.

You maybe right, but I've never regarded the US as much more than an idle observer when it comes to bitcoin volume. Technology-wise it's different of course since much, if not most of the developmental work is Western based.

In particular, the entire trading pattern of the last 2.5 years is largely characterised by the two 2013 spikes, one of which ostensibly originated in the Mediteranean Countries (April) and the other in China (December). Even when that bubble burst it co-incided with the Chinese authorities snap-regulating the fiat gateways in that country.

I think the rest of the world just got dragged along for the ride.

I don't really disagree with anything that you say, except for the fact that you seem to be talking too much in absolutes for my thinking - meaning all or nothing, which really can lead to conspiratorial (and simplistic) thinking (not that you are necessarily guilty of such, but there is quite a lot going on, especially in the mainstream press and also coming from a lot of the bitcoin naysayers and the bear trolls).

Bitcoin is a lot more subtle and nuanced than that, and of course there is some truth that there is manipulation and sure there is some truth that there is lead and follow, but price dynamics are also a series of feedback and credibility and questions regarding where something may have started and whether there is enough momentum in that place to really cause meaningful movement, whether we are talking about pumps or dumps or short term, medium term or longer term movements.

Chinese supposed "lead" is not happening in a vaccum.... Do you recall silk road arrests in about August/September 2013?  Do you recall fed hearings that kind of ended up in pro-bitcoin outcomes in November 2013?  Do you recall some admissions from Chinese insiders that a lot of the chinese volume was fake?  Do you recognize that there is a large amount of world wide development in BTC related industries that is generally causing increased adoption and BTC trading going on all over the world (even reflected in local bitcoin activities and even reflected in blockchain.info wallets and various blockchain adoption statistics)? 

Part of my point is that there is a lot going on in bitcoin besides how many supposed millions of coins that the Chinese are supposedly trading on their various fake and/or fee free bot-dominated exchanges that supposedly and frequently take up more than supposedly 80% of the world-wide trade volume and bitcoin activities. 

I am not suggesting to completely discount the chinese BTC related activities or even to give the chinese activities less than 50% weight (I really don't know exactly how much weight to give anything because how much weight to give is going to vary from person to person, and how much weight to give is even going to vary within myself from time 1 to time 2 to time 3).  I am just suggesting that any BTC price analysis and/or attempts at prediction should go much beyond becoming too much focused on the chinese exchange activities or attempting to measure the direction of the BTC wind by the tea leaves of chinese BTC exchanges.

[toknormal]

I am just suggesting that any BTC price analysis and/or attempts at prediction should go much beyond becoming too much focused on the chinese exchange activities or attempting to measure the direction of the BTC wind by the tea leaves of chinese BTC exchanges.

Indeed.

It's just that if you DO happen to be watching charts instead of studying fundamentals and reading the news, it's quite easy to see where the action is and where it isn't since they're all lined up there in front of you with no more than a button click between them  

you seem to be talking too much in absolutes...which really can lead to conspiratorial (and simplistic) thinking

Hey, this is bitcointalk. Didn't you know that "conspiratorial and simplistic thinking" were de-rigueur ?