Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

Miners won't let the price fall to 5000.
This is only one aspect to the manipulation that’s been going on since September. However if you look at the hash rate, it’s trending upwards, almost parabolically. This is because asic miners are in excess and they can ship them out much faster than last year, when demand was at ATH. Coupled with strange miner confidence in bitcoin which I cannot explain. Even if you ignore hashrate increase, assume miners do not leave bitcoin, and look at the price vs. block difficulty by the end of the year, profitability approaches 0 in all cases from 7500-10000. If miners switch, it can alleviate this pressure, but who will be leaving and who can afford to weather this storm currently? Big farms are more economical than small miners. It seems like an effort to weed out small miners and their coins, while centralizing mining, all while they can make money by liquidating people on longs/shorts. If it wasn’t a manipulated market I wouldn’t believe this, but it seems likely. I welcome regulations and investigations into market manipulation. After all, exchanges are the only ones who can see real volume.

People don't seem to understand that miners can and will mine at a loss.  The only real limit is that it be cheaper than other forms of money laundering.

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[SpiryGolden]

This bounce will be fun to watch. It would be the 3rd. But a lot of people don't like to watch it macro and don't see the over-sold triggers all over the place.

[kingcolex]

Miners won't let the price fall to 5000.
This is only one aspect to the manipulation that’s been going on since September. However if you look at the hash rate, it’s trending upwards, almost parabolically. This is because asic miners are in excess and they can ship them out much faster than last year, when demand was at ATH. Coupled with strange miner confidence in bitcoin which I cannot explain. Even if you ignore hashrate increase, assume miners do not leave bitcoin, and look at the price vs. block difficulty by the end of the year, profitability approaches 0 in all cases from 7500-10000. If miners switch, it can alleviate this pressure, but who will be leaving and who can afford to weather this storm currently? Big farms are more economical than small miners. It seems like an effort to weed out small miners and their coins, while centralizing mining, all while they can make money by liquidating people on longs/shorts. If it wasn’t a manipulated market I wouldn’t believe this, but it seems likely. I welcome regulations and investigations into market manipulation. After all, exchanges are the only ones who can see real volume.

People don't seem to understand that miners can and will mine at a loss.  The only real limit is that it be cheaper than other forms of money laundering.

Yeah Bitmain is about to go public, it helps a lot to go public as a profitable company with high demand for it's products, a fall below mining cost kills buying and their revenue. They won't let that happen right now.

[Raja_MBZ]

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

what does this mean?

This means:

1. register on Bitmex
2. deposit bitcoin
3. choose at least 10x leverage and go long (right now at $6500)
4. get your bitcoin doubled when bitcoin reaches $7500

I take this advice completely back. I'm not going to open that website ever again. Probably a URL which I'll hate the most after LibertyReserve.com.

Miners won't let the price fall to 5000.
This is only one aspect to the manipulation that’s been going on since September. However if you look at the hash rate, it’s trending upwards, almost parabolically. This is because asic miners are in excess and they can ship them out much faster than last year, when demand was at ATH. Coupled with strange miner confidence in bitcoin which I cannot explain. Even if you ignore hashrate increase, assume miners do not leave bitcoin, and look at the price vs. block difficulty by the end of the year, profitability approaches 0 in all cases from 7500-10000. If miners switch, it can alleviate this pressure, but who will be leaving and who can afford to weather this storm currently? Big farms are more economical than small miners. It seems like an effort to weed out small miners and their coins, while centralizing mining, all while they can make money by liquidating people on longs/shorts. If it wasn’t a manipulated market I wouldn’t believe this, but it seems likely. I welcome regulations and investigations into market manipulation. After all, exchanges are the only ones who can see real volume.

People don't seem to understand that miners can and will mine at a loss.  The only real limit is that it be cheaper than other forms of money laundering.

True. Moreover, increasing hash-rate doesn't necessarily mean that the number of miners is increasing, it might also be due to the newer versions of Bitmain now available in the market with greatly improved efficiency.

[regent4]

Update.  https://i.imgur.com/xRIRPLv.png

Still has major support levels.  HODL

Analysis here. http://blockchainshowdown.blogspot.com/2018/06/btc-usd-june-14-2018.html

[pacman7331]

6k is bottom. Gonna just go out on a limb and say we won’t see sub 6k coins.



Some buy volume coming in.

Hit the edge of the descending wedge

[smartcomet]

Good news
https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-index-fund-is-open-for-investment-61217606f1ef

Coinbase Index Fund is now open for investments of $250,000 to $20M.

Coinbase Index Fund gives investors exposure to all assets listed on our exchange, weighted by market capitalization. As we announced yesterday, the fund will be rebalanced to include Ethereum Classic, and more assets when they are listed by Coinbase in the future.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Bob touting the merits of Lightning Network. Get ready for another leg down.

[theymos]

I read through the Tether manipulation paper. IMO it made two convincing points:

#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
 - Issuing new USDT
 - Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
 - Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
 - Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
 - Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
 
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation. But the authors didn't address the alternative possibility of this being a particularly ham-fisted whale who is a close partner of Tether.

#2 Due to end-of-month trading, Tether has probably always been trading with USD deposited with them (fractional-reserve), though at least until March 2017, USDT was probably not complete monopoly money, since they did go to the effort of achieving an end-of-month USD balance.

The authors also tried to argue some other points which I didn't find convincing.


I took the paper's data at face value. There were several points where I thought that they could be cherry-picking data, but it's too difficult to check this sort of thing. Cherry-picking / confirmation bias is especially easy to do with block-chain analysis. And I know for a fact that their method of grouping block-chain transactions is not robust in general, though it probably was sufficient for what they did here.

I've thought for a long time that USDT is almost certainly a scam, and this paper makes me think so even more. Though I was actually a little surprised that this provides evidence (via the end-of-month trading) that USDT ever had any real USD.

The paper estimates that if you removed the USDT issuance events which the paper's authors regard as most likely to be BTC price manipulation, the BTC price would be $4100 as of March 31. But that's based on a whole pile of assumptions; I wouldn't give it much credence. I think that the collapse of USDT will be mostly limited to the obvious direct effects (ie. some exchanges would have major troubles, there'd be many people stuck with worthless USDT, etc.), and there would not somehow be a natural "rollback" of any gains which monopoly-money USDT may have driven. Also, the paper makes clear that all major crypto was affected, often much more than BTC, so this isn't any sort of argument against BTC in particular.

[Gab0]

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

what does this mean?

This means:

1. register on Bitmex
2. deposit bitcoin
3. choose at least 10x leverage and go long (right now at $6500)
4. get your bitcoin doubled when bitcoin reaches $7500

I take this advice completely back. I'm not going to open that website ever again. Probably a URL which I'll hate the most after LibertyReserve.com.

As I said before ... you are an excellent contraindication lol

[d_eddie]

In other news, shorters take the blame.

https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/heres-why-bitcoin-is-fallingand-it-isnt-just-the-coinrail-exchange-hack-2018-06-13

NEWS FOR YOU     ITS YOUR DATE       

QUICK list 12288 is finisht GOOD LUCK   WO's

(list snipped)
15/06/2018 d_eddie

Oh really? I gave up on this long ago... removed from my mind.
What was that list about again?

[JayJuanGee]

I think the pain is just beginning.

And here I thought I was a waffler..      That was less than a hour for a 180...   Thats pretty good even for WO standards.  /s

I posted the HODL meme for emotional support for all the HODLers because it was looking bad. Bad financial advice? Probably.
However, I was a bear yesterday, and am a bear today. 

This will be my first publicly announce without minus merit distribution... .. which negative goes to bear converts (even if merely a temporary status).

Long term bull, as always. Short term still bearish. Send all the negative merits my way!

The social engineers are about. This thing is gonna tumble. I can feel it in my bones now.

I called it.

So what?

You can say price is going to go 1)  UP, 2) DOWN or 3) SIDEWAYS.  33% odds regarding any of the statements.  You happen to guess correctly, so then you are a genius?  All of a sudden?   

[bitserve]

Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

Let's try to examine this from another perspective.

Are you still an "accidental multi-millionaire" because of your BTC holdings ?

If Yes, adjust belt-buckle, make sure testicles are comfortable, and chill out for a while.

If No, try to see the bigger picture. 21 Million is a finite number that cannot be changed. Please try to remain patient. HODL on.

No, I never was a multimillionaire because of my BTC holdings. My stash is only in the double digits BTC. I know it is not that much in comparison to many people here but still it represented a considerable amount for me a few months ago (temporarily more than half of my net worth including real state).

Of course I will HODL. As I said, the pain of having "lost" the paper profits from $19K down to $6K are bigger than what I've got left to lose (only one remaining third of price). Selling have never been on my short/medium term plan... even though I wish I would have sold more on the peak to buy now.

This time I am more confident that Bitcoin will recover than I was in 2014. There was much more doubt in the future than there is now. The only difference is that this time the amount and value of my stash is bigger and so is the pain watching it drop.

Anyways... enough of my pathetic rambling....


Who sold the bottom?

[Last of the V8s]

Oh man Raja_MBZ what a sad business. sfyl

[Rosewater Foundation]

I think the pain is just beginning.

And here I thought I was a waffler..      That was less than a hour for a 180...   Thats pretty good even for WO standards.  /s

I posted the HODL meme for emotional support for all the HODLers because it was looking bad. Bad financial advice? Probably.
However, I was a bear yesterday, and am a bear today. 

This will be my first publicly announce without minus merit distribution... .. which negative goes to bear converts (even if merely a temporary status).

Long term bull, as always. Short term still bearish. Send all the negative merits my way!

The social engineers are about. This thing is gonna tumble. I can feel it in my bones now.

I called it.

So what?

You can say price is going to go 1)  UP, 2) DOWN or 3) SIDEWAYS.  33% odds regarding any of the statements.  You happen to guess correctly, so then you are a genius?  All of a sudden?   

Yes Jay. I'm a genius now.

[pacman7331]

[bitserve]

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.

Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Are you really willing to let your current net worth get cut in half? Again?

The good thing is that at current price is not possible anymore that BTC cut my net worth in half no matter what it does. Or is that a bad thing? I forgot...

Btw, you didn't answer if you finally capitulated and sold everything... even though you sometimes sound as if you did.

[Rosewater Foundation]

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.

Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Are you really willing to let your current net worth get cut in half? Again?

The good thing is that at current price is not possible anymore that BTC cut my net worth in half no matter what it does. Or is that a bad thing? I forgot...

Btw, you didn't answer if you finally capitulated and sold everything... even though you sometimes sound as if you did.

I sold bits and pieces. Not enough that I'm not a mountain of regret. TBH

[shahzadafzal]

#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
 - Issuing new USDT
 - Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
 - Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
 - Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
 - Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
 
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation.

We rarely see @theymos around here but welcome. I would say that is the pretty much summary of last one year of  crypto market. Just I would like to add “whales” to this point. Whether intentionally or unintentionally big players of Bitcoin are part of this game too.

The thing is we are fighting against a very big enemy, I would say we even did not reach the stage yet where we can say we are in a competition now. No, that stage is still far. So this is not game over but this is the new beginning. Remember we are big in numbers, they can’t defeate us in terms of quantity.

Panic is there too... but they are good at manipulating and hiding it.


https://i.imgur.com/dvDEHis.jpg

[Tyr808]

Miners won't let the price fall to 5000.
This is only one aspect to the manipulation that’s been going on since September. However if you look at the hash rate, it’s trending upwards, almost parabolically. This is because asic miners are in excess and they can ship them out much faster than last year, when demand was at ATH. Coupled with strange miner confidence in bitcoin which I cannot explain. Even if you ignore hashrate increase, assume miners do not leave bitcoin, and look at the price vs. block difficulty by the end of the year, profitability approaches 0 in all cases from 7500-10000. If miners switch, it can alleviate this pressure, but who will be leaving and who can afford to weather this storm currently? Big farms are more economical than small miners. It seems like an effort to weed out small miners and their coins, while centralizing mining, all while they can make money by liquidating people on longs/shorts. If it wasn’t a manipulated market I wouldn’t believe this, but it seems likely. I welcome regulations and investigations into market manipulation. After all, exchanges are the only ones who can see real volume.

People don't seem to understand that miners can and will mine at a loss.  The only real limit is that it be cheaper than other forms of money laundering.

Please elaborate - you mean money laundering is what mining is all about?