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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26767314 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Rosewater Foundation
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June 19, 2018, 12:49:13 AM

Fair enough Cheesy
TERA2
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Deb Rah Von Doom


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June 19, 2018, 12:53:41 AM

JayJuanGee
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June 19, 2018, 12:56:59 AM

-snipped-
Another possibility, for several of us, could be to engage in a  kind of trickery in accounting and to cash out of BTC the amount that we invested, and in that regard, we are playing with house money, which is that we do not have any costs associated with the BTC that we hold.  Personally, I don't feel any kind of compelling reason to employ such a harsh strategy or cashing out in order to "play with house money" because 1) that would be valuing my wealth in fiat rather than bitcoin, 2) there are no real fundamental threats to bitcoin, even if the price may perhaps go down to below $3k.. perhaps?  Perhaps? and 3) Even if I am playing with both principle and interest, such practice gives me way more money to "play" with and it is like borrowing from myself to continue to use such value to invest in bitcoin (remembering one important principle that it takes money to make money and the rich get richer, which happens to be applicable to myself and to other BTC hodlers, especially referring to those who have been largely invested into BTC before 2017)



The longer we hold, the greater opportunities will develop to retire with our coin, spending it directly for goods & services & not getting taxed in fiat.

I agree with your overall assessment, especially if you are suggesting to treat bitcoin as a relatively long term investment.   It could be a bit too optimistic to calculate that you might be able to get away without paying taxes, but it does seem that the greater your profits, then even though the taxes might be greater, but you are only getting taxed on profits, and not principle, so there can be ways to strategize your cashing out to lessen the tax burden....

In other words, paying taxes does not seem to be a bad problem to have.

I could think of worse things than taxes.  Let's say, for example, you have purchased 10 BTC for $6,700 each, which would be $67k of principle (investment capital).  If all of a sudden, BTC does a 10x, and your coins become worth $67k each, then you total BTC portfolio is suddenly worth $670k - and if we assume long term capital gains of somewhere around 15%, then your tax burden would be ($670,000-$67,000=$603k * .15) $90,450.  However, if you strategically cash out your bitcoins over the years, then you may not feel the tax burden as much as if you are taking home the whole loot of $579,550 ($670,000-$90,450).

I guess that part of my point is that there are ways to incrementally take out the money, spread out the tax burden and perhaps feel less of a one-time shock to your accounting... and in the end, even while paying taxes, still feel richer than you would have felt without the bitcoin investment.
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June 19, 2018, 12:57:43 AM

there it is...perfect timing

Rosewater Foundation
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June 19, 2018, 12:59:43 AM

bluebits
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June 19, 2018, 01:01:08 AM



Should we just assume bitmex traders are the opposite of right, so wrong, all the time?
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June 19, 2018, 01:05:39 AM

I didn't even have to read to guess that after that 5% rise the forum would have gone full bulltard. Should I even read the last 5 pages. I think my head will explode looking at all the nub charts.
Rosewater Foundation
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June 19, 2018, 01:07:56 AM

I didn't even have to read to guess that after that 5% rise the forum would have gone full bulltard. Should I even read the last 5 pages. I think my head will explode looking at all the nub charts.

Where rocket pics?
JayJuanGee
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June 19, 2018, 01:10:32 AM

there it is...perfect timing



I am lost.  

Perhaps I am missing a variable, or the math is beyond me.


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June 19, 2018, 01:23:07 AM

I didn't even have to read to guess that after that 5% rise the forum would have gone full bulltard. Should I even read the last 5 pages. I think my head will explode looking at all the nub charts.

Where rocket pics?
bones261
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June 19, 2018, 01:31:08 AM

there it is...perfect timing



I am lost.  

Perhaps I am missing a variable, or the math is beyond me.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leet
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June 19, 2018, 01:37:05 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

there it is...perfect timing
Wink 

I didn't even have to read to guess that after that 5% rise the forum would have gone full bulltard. Should I even read the last 5 pages. I think my head will explode looking at all the nub charts.

Tera-bull posting bullish charts...oh my. Cheesy

I am lost. 

Perhaps I am missing a variable, or the math is beyond me.

Just leet speak Jay..a bit of fun. I enjoy giving that one thousand three hundred and thirty seventh merit..thats all. Besides..I think the period as placed by jojo was proper. Your post could have ended there and I would have agreed and understood. That you chose to elucidate farther and take the time to try and explain yourself to the little bear is worthy of applause. *golf clap* 
Seriously..well done.

----
1h
I have adjusted the cloud settings some. Trying to figure out the best settings for bitcoin still. I was using just a doubling of the defaults(9,26,52,26 to 18,52,104,52), but I feel that still does not reflect the 24/7 nature of crypto. Going to try 30,60,120,30 for awhile and see how it syncs up. Work in progress.


D
I would like to see $6.95k to confirm uptrend.

#hodl




infofront (OP)
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June 19, 2018, 01:48:03 AM

Tera has a point. The volume on that green candle was anemic.
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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June 19, 2018, 01:51:07 AM

I don't give a ratt's ass about what I said or did not say

Obviously.

Quote
stop getting caught up in these kinds of technicalities in order to attempt to keep your stupid-ass FUD spreading topic relevant, when it barely is relevant to anything in Bitcoin.

It is not FUD spreading. It is truthful statements about properties of Segwit.

You, on the other hand, either were completely wrong or lying in your assertion that these properties did not exist.

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O.k.. so fucking what if you are correct on the theoretical issue,

When backed into a hole of your own digging, you accede to what all can see. How big of you.

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Are you asserting that such topical pursuit is not getting caught up in the weeds of bullshit, and there is some kind of importance in meandering down such rabbit hole in which you would like to direct me and the rest of this thread's participants?  

What I am asserting remains what I have been asserting all along. I am asserting that these properties are endemic to Segwit. Period.

What is more, I only offered this up when someone asked me to explain why I was a Segwit skeptic. This narrative of me calling certain and immediate impending doom is one of your own deluded invention.

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Seems like speculation about a phenomena that is .1% likely to happen and you are attempting to treat such speculation as if it has greater than 50% odds, no?  

No. I even stated point blank that the significance of these existing properties is a subject of debate.

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Why isn't your conduct here considered just FUD spreading and trolling?  

Probably because I stick to the facts.

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How is it that you want WO peeps to treat you seriously and with credibility, jbreher, when you seem to take nearly every opportunity to exaggerate negative aspects of bitcoin with highly unlikely theories?  

How is it that you want WO peeps to treat you seriously and with credibility, JJG, when you seem to take nearly every opportunity to exaggerate my position and stick words in my mouth - only after having been exposed as either ignorant or duplicitous?

JayJuanGee
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June 19, 2018, 01:55:16 AM

[edited out]

Fuck no. I started holding in late 2016 with a too little amount.

Well, I guess the best case scenario for normal peeps (meaning people with cashflow and some money in which to attempt to invest) getting into bitcoin would have been to have largely established a decent BTC position before 2017; however, we also know that some peeps are doing well if they were able to continue to invest into bitcoin before the August 2017 pump that came after the issues regarding the hardfork attacks on bitcoin (bcash) were mostly resolved in bitcoin's favor.  I do understand that during early 2017 and even late 2016, there were a lot of ways that normal peeps could have been FUDDED out of buying into bitcoin, but if we had been in bitcoin since 2013/2014, then there should have been some ability to sort through a lot of the FUD and to continue to establish a decent BTC position inspite of the then ongoing FUD spreading (actually, a fact of the bitcoin matter, remains that there are periods in which FUD spreading is greater or lessens, but FUD spreading always seems to exist to some extent, so FUD spreading is not a phenomena that tends to go away, so in that regard each of us, has a personal responsibility to sort through that FUD crap).

Are you saying that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and much of 2016, you were not stacking bitcoin?  Even if you had stacked a small amount of perhaps $100 per month ($25-ish per week), you could have stacked a decently sized BTC holdings by the end of 2016, no?


Then in late 2017 that little amount became a mid sized treasure.

That is true.  Even though the start of the upsurge in BTC prices started in late 2015, it gained a lot of momentum throughout 2017, and especially in the last part of 2017.  And even though I personally had concluded that a blow off top had not yet happened, it is surely possible that because of the intensity of the upwards slope increase, that late 2017 had constituted a blow off top.  I am still inclined to believe that the blow off top for this particular cycle is still to come, but I acknowledge that the intensity of the late 2017 price rise could fit a more modest categorization of a blow off top assessment.


I used to invest %5-10 of my montly income till february or smth. Apparently, I needed much more than that.

Actually, each of us has to come to a calculation that suits our own financial situation, and my initial goal was to put about 10% of my total quasi-liquid investment capital into bitcoin, and that is money that I had already accumulated through previous years that I had been investing.  My prior investing had varied through the years, too, and usually I attempted something like you, I would calculate my various regular expenses and try to create a cushion in my cash flow in order to have a percentage that would be available for investment, and surely 5-10% is a decent amount, but of course, different people have different things that they consider to be bare necessities, and so sometimes the amount invested could be increased by changing some of the perceptions of bare necessities.. and also calculating an emergency fund and various other good practices, such as maintaining a 6 month or so projection of living expenses in order that you would not have to dig into any investment, because of an "emergency."

So please wait some more Wink

Perhaps you will get lucky?  But, I don't think that you can expect bitcoin to wait for you.  It seems better to just attempt to maintain a solid ongoing investment strategy, and your 5-10% seems reasonable... because the amount invested continues to add up, so over the years, you are still going to be in a better position than a lot of the fence sitters and the many others who have not set anything up for themselves or have not heard about bitcoin in any kind of meaningful way.

Why haven't I bought at least 20 when it was sub 1000?

I don't think that anyone could really blame you for being judicious with your money and investing only the amount that you reasonably had available in your cashflow.  The only thing is that you seem to be implying that you could have reasonably and easily bought much more, but you held off such investment.


I guess I bought the FUD from the guys like fucking roach.

The main thing is learning from the situation, because there are always going to be FUD spreading roaches out there.  I still think that you have to take into account some of the FUD, and to invest in accordance with your overall beliefs and a moderate approach is likely going to be best to keep putting money in to bitcoin but without over extending yourself.

Or maybe It was the post-Gox trauma... in 2015 many people thought that btc was going to "0". The amount of FUD was overwhelming back then. I was weak and in this world weak people dieeeeeee becuz evolution/adaptation.

Like I already mentioned, I think that there has always been FUD out there about bitcoin.  I doubt that the FUD is going away any time soon.

Hopefully, you can find some kind of long term and sustainable investment strategy, and I hope that you do not get scared out of your coins if the price goes down from here.  Certainly, there are no guarantees in bitcoin, and in that regard prices could go either way, so each of us needs to find balance for our own finances, views, timeline, etc.   Ultimately, each of us also needs to attempt to take personal responsibility for our approach and to tweak our approach from time to time, based on ongoing learning from our mistakes, and seems that any of us could make mistakes.
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June 19, 2018, 01:56:32 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Tera has a point. The volume on that green candle was anemic.

Bitcoin doesn't need blood. It has New York now. And memes.

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June 19, 2018, 02:24:35 AM

Tera has a point. The volume on that green candle was anemic.

Bitcoin doesn't need blood. It has New York now. And memes.


How will Karhu feed without blood?
A god can't live on memes alone.
infofront (OP)
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June 19, 2018, 02:30:21 AM

I'm comforted now. Thanks
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June 19, 2018, 02:33:41 AM

Who here is NOT going to sell me their Lambo if I pay in BTC that has either some segwit taint, or that actually comes from a native segwit address? I didn't find anyone who wouldn't accept my coins.
JayJuanGee
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June 19, 2018, 02:36:22 AM

Curious, are dollars (USD) fungible? Are physical dollar bills and dollars which only exist in a bank ledger separate asset classes? What about dollar bills that have been marked in some way?

By definition no, but in practice sort of. Tongue

Fair enough.  

I have been largely painting this fungibility topic with broad strokes regarding what seems to be a topic that attempts to spread FUD rather than treating an actual serious bitcoin issue which fungibility currently is not such a topic, even though surely there are likely going to be attempted bitcoin fungibility attacks in the future - whether informationally or the employment of various methods, like you suggested blacklisting as one possible method that may not be easy to carry out in bitcoin if "people-empowering" tools continue to be developed and evolve.

Unfortunately my faith in that area is that it will be tested and I hope those tools you speak of materialize.

This concept of maintaining fungibility is not a new one in bitcoin, and of course, it is going to be tested, and perhaps tested with a bit of rigor.  Just because it is a potential vulnerable area does not mean that bitcoin is not going to be able to overcome various attacks on its fungibility.  Should we not be taking one step at a time, rather than assuming that various attack vectors are going to be successful merely because people, such as jbreher, are attempting to spread FUD about it?

Surely, I might conclude that fungibility is a .1% concern, and you might conclude it is 10% and jbreher might consider that it is 20%, but the mere fact that we have different probabilities about future value and utility should cause us to invest differently based on how BIG we believe the threat to be.  Some folks are going to be closer to being correct than others, and that is the nature of the free market, to some extent.

Right now it's kind of ironic that non fungible coins are similar to fiat by being sort of.

Your answer above, about fiat being sort of non-fungible seems to be a bit off.   Fiat is backed by government laws, etc, and there have been fungibility court rulings in regard to fiat.  Of course, governments can chose to change their fiat related rules too.  I would conclude that there is a decently strong public policy to attempt to maintain dollar fungibility and that gives the dollar decent strength and decent predictability.  Of course, the rules could be changed, at some point in regards to the dollar.  Seems to be a bit more difficult to change the rules in regards to bitcoin, and in that regard, there will likely be both governmental attempts or anti-bitcoin groups that try to change bitcoin rules, and some of the anti-bitcoin groups will actually tout themselves as being pro bitcoin, and out to do what is "best" for bitcoin.  Good luck, we will see, and each of us will decide if we are scared by what is happening or decide to sell our bitcoin (or discontinue usage of bitcoin) based on such happenings.

But I don't see how not being fungible can destroy any coin it just has a different utility.

You are likely correct that there is a sliding scale when it comes to fungibility, and I think that most free market types are going to perceive the most value in bitcoin being associated with greater levels of fungibility... so yeah, you are right that lesser fungibility may maintain some value, but the amount of decrease in value may be a lot greater than what you seem to be projecting it to be.  For example if confidence is lost because coins get blacklisted, then surely that seems problematic to me if it is allowed to occur.  So if any 3rd party such as coinbase or fed government tries to label coins, then there would likely be some effort by the bitcoin community to either not use their services or to move coins to other location and clean them of their blacklisting.
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