Bitcoin Forum
December 06, 2021, 11:32:26 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 22.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: Will we close Nov. at or above Plan B's posited minimum of $98K?
Yes - 43 (37.1%)
No - 73 (62.9%)
Total Voters: 116

Pages: « 1 ... 20480 20481 20482 20483 20484 20485 20486 20487 20488 20489 20490 20491 20492 20493 20494 20495 20496 20497 20498 20499 20500 20501 20502 20503 20504 20505 20506 20507 20508 20509 20510 20511 20512 20513 20514 20515 20516 20517 20518 20519 20520 20521 20522 20523 20524 20525 20526 20527 20528 20529 [20530] 20531 20532 20533 20534 20535 20536 20537 20538 20539 20540 20541 20542 20543 20544 20545 20546 20547 20548 20549 20550 20551 20552 20553 20554 20555 20556 20557 20558 20559 20560 20561 20562 20563 20564 20565 20566 20567 20568 20569 20570 20571 20572 20573 20574 20575 20576 20577 20578 20579 20580 ... 29954 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25496820 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:22:33 AM



I think the pain is just beginning.

And here I thought I was a waffler..   Cheesy   That was less than a hour for a 180...   Thats pretty good even for WO standards.  /s

I posted the HODL meme for emotional support for all the HODLers because it was looking bad. Bad financial advice? Probably.
However, I was a bear yesterday, and am a bear today.  Wink

This will be my first publicly announce without minus merit distribution... .. which negative goes to bear converts (even if merely a temporary status).


Long term bull, as always. Short term still bearish. Send all the negative merits my way!

The social engineers are about. This thing is gonna tumble. I can feel it in my bones now.

I called it.


So what?

You can say price is going to go 1)  UP, 2) DOWN or 3) SIDEWAYS.  33% odds regarding any of the statements.  You happen to guess correctly, so then you are a genius?  All of a sudden?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Yes Jay. I'm a genius now.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1638833546
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638833546

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638833546
Reply with quote  #2

1638833546
Report to moderator
1638833546
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638833546

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638833546
Reply with quote  #2

1638833546
Report to moderator
1638833546
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1638833546

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1638833546
Reply with quote  #2

1638833546
Report to moderator
pacman7331
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 638
Merit: 118



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:22:51 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

bitserve
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1596
Merit: 1328


Self made HODLER ✓


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:24:21 AM

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.


Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  Wink

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Are you really willing to let your current net worth get cut in half? Again?

The good thing is that at current price is not possible anymore that BTC cut my net worth in half no matter what it does. Or is that a bad thing? I forgot...

Btw, you didn't answer if you finally capitulated and sold everything... even though you sometimes sound as if you did.
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:26:38 AM

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.


Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  Wink

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Are you really willing to let your current net worth get cut in half? Again?

The good thing is that at current price is not possible anymore that BTC cut my net worth in half no matter what it does. Or is that a bad thing? I forgot...

Btw, you didn't answer if you finally capitulated and sold everything... even though you sometimes sound as if you did.

I sold bits and pieces. Not enough that I'm not a mountain of regret. TBH
shahzadafzal
Copper Member
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 658
Merit: 933



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:32:55 AM

#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
 - Issuing new USDT
 - Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
 - Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
 - Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
 - Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
 
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation.
We rarely see @theymos around here but welcome. I would say that is the pretty much summary of last one year of  crypto market. Just I would like to add “whales” to this point. Whether intentionally or unintentionally big players of Bitcoin are part of this game too.

The thing is we are fighting against a very big enemy, I would say we even did not reach the stage yet where we can say we are in a competition now. No, that stage is still far. So this is not game over but this is the new beginning. Remember we are big in numbers, they can’t defeate us in terms of quantity.

Panic is there too... but they are good at manipulating and hiding it.


https://i.imgur.com/dvDEHis.jpg



Tyr808
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 606
Merit: 274


06/19/11 17:51 Bought BTC 259684.77 for 0.0101


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:34:28 AM

Miners won't let the price fall to 5000.
This is only one aspect to the manipulation that’s been going on since September. However if you look at the hash rate, it’s trending upwards, almost parabolically. This is because asic miners are in excess and they can ship them out much faster than last year, when demand was at ATH. Coupled with strange miner confidence in bitcoin which I cannot explain. Even if you ignore hashrate increase, assume miners do not leave bitcoin, and look at the price vs. block difficulty by the end of the year, profitability approaches 0 in all cases from 7500-10000. If miners switch, it can alleviate this pressure, but who will be leaving and who can afford to weather this storm currently? Big farms are more economical than small miners. It seems like an effort to weed out small miners and their coins, while centralizing mining, all while they can make money by liquidating people on longs/shorts. If it wasn’t a manipulated market I wouldn’t believe this, but it seems likely. I welcome regulations and investigations into market manipulation. After all, exchanges are the only ones who can see real volume.

People don't seem to understand that miners can and will mine at a loss.  The only real limit is that it be cheaper than other forms of money laundering.

Please elaborate - you mean money laundering is what mining is all about?
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 5183


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:35:33 AM

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.


Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  Wink

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Possibilities seem like this:

1) you did not sell enough on the way up  (anyone can kind of feel like that)

2) you sold on the way up, but you bought back too soon, so now you are running out of money to buy  (there seems to be a remedy for this, and that is to just budget a plan for on the way down - but of course, if you don't have any money for buying and you don't want to sell any then you just have to HODL, suck it up , and hope to fix the mistake in the future).

3) could be some other possibilities, but I cannot think of them, at this moment.    Wink
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:40:45 AM

Bob touting the merits of Lightning Network. Get ready for another leg down.

Seeing as how I have TERA2 on ignore, I dub thee, the new, "official" Bitcointalk Wall Observer "Debbie Downer"

So, why are you so down on Lightning, Debbie ?

I'm just trying to adjust to the reality on the ground. Not sure what micropayments have to do with the price of eggs at this point.
Tyr808
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 606
Merit: 274


06/19/11 17:51 Bought BTC 259684.77 for 0.0101


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:41:03 AM
Last edit: June 14, 2018, 02:04:31 AM by Tyr808
Merited by paxmao (1)

I read through the Tether manipulation paper. IMO it made two convincing points:

#1 Someone has a habit of doing this:
 - Issuing new USDT
 - Within days, moving that USDT to BitFinex, Bittrex, and/or Poloniex
 - Using that USDT to buy crypto (seemingly a portfolio of BTC & others). They especially like to buy crypto when the price is just below whole numbers.
 - Moving the resulting crypto back to BitFinex
 - Rarely or never selling the crypto for USDT again
 
The authors argue that this is Tether/BitFinex themselves, and I think that this is in fact the most likely explanation. But the authors didn't address the alternative possibility of this being a particularly ham-fisted whale who is a close partner of Tether.

#2 Due to end-of-month trading, Tether has probably always been trading with USD deposited with them (fractional-reserve), though at least until March 2017, USDT was probably not complete monopoly money, since they did go to the effort of achieving an end-of-month USD balance.

The authors also tried to argue some other points which I didn't find convincing.



I took the paper's data at face value. There were several points where I thought that they could be cherry-picking data, but it's too difficult to check this sort of thing. Cherry-picking / confirmation bias is especially easy to do with block-chain analysis. And I know for a fact that their method of grouping block-chain transactions is not robust in general, though it probably was sufficient for what they did here.

I've thought for a long time that USDT is almost certainly a scam, and this paper makes me think so even more. Though I was actually a little surprised that this provides evidence (via the end-of-month trading) that USDT ever had any real USD.

The paper estimates that if you removed the USDT issuance events which the paper's authors regard as most likely to be BTC price manipulation, the BTC price would be $4100 as of March 31. But that's based on a whole pile of assumptions; I wouldn't give it much credence. I think that the collapse of USDT will be mostly limited to the obvious direct effects (ie. some exchanges would have major troubles, there'd be many people stuck with worthless USDT, etc.), and there would not somehow be a natural "rollback" of any gains which monopoly-money USDT may have driven. Also, the paper makes clear that all major crypto was affected, often much more than BTC, so this isn't any sort of argument against BTC in particular.

Very interesting paper Theymos.
My two points:
1. I won't keep a cent in Bitfinex because there's a chance this will end very badly.
2. SHingTF won't result in a BTC price correction. USDT holders will be the ones paying the price. I don't see how things could go differently from this.

---

To anyone thinking BTC price will drop once the USDT shenanigans are exposed:

Imagine there's a small planet of fishermen who use shells as currency. There's a limited supply of shells.

One day an astronaut arrives  from an advanced planet; he carries a secret device which allows him to create several fake shells.
For some weeks the astronaut buys a lot of local diamonds (unique and also limited in supply). He pays with his synthetised shells but the fishermen don't know they're fake and thus his market demand drives the diamonds prices up.

One day the astronaut returns to his planet with the diamonds and then the fishermen find out all the shells he gave them were fake and have now turned to ash.

Will the price of diamonds go down?

Nope.

The fishermen will still use shells to buy diamonds, and astronaut gone or not, there's still the same amount of shells around and the same amount of diamonds.

What happens next? A few possibilities
1. Other astronauts from other planets will come back with fake shells, but hopefully the fishermen won't be fooled (regulations on the crypto market coming next)
2. A proxy will come back to sell the astronaut's diamonds amd he'd be ready to cash them out at a slightly lower price via OTC trades.
3. Fishermen will lose faith in shell-to-diamond trades and will prefer gemstone-to-gemstone P2P trades (raise of dex vs centralized?)
4. The space police will find the astronaut and force him to refund those he gave fake shells to; he might do that with giving them back diamonds or other gemstones.
5. Etc
kingcolex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2366
Merit: 1258



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:41:47 AM
Last edit: June 14, 2018, 01:51:54 AM by kingcolex

Bob touting the merits of Lightning Network. Get ready for another leg down.

Seeing as how I have TERA2 on ignore, I dub thee, the new, "official" Bitcointalk Wall Observer "Debbie Downer"

So, why are you so down on Lightning, Debbie ?
He might be on that shitty Bcash trash.
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:44:06 AM

New guy thinks he knows me.

(You don't know me Angry)
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:51:36 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

I'm just trying to adjust to the reality on the ground. Not sure what micropayments have to do with the price of eggs at this point.

Oh yeah, well, you're the one equating my discussion of micropayments with the slump in the price of corn, so... yeah.

I hold you personally responsible for most of the things that happen here. I thought that was understood.
bitserve
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1596
Merit: 1328


Self made HODLER ✓


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 01:54:40 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

Hodling is depressing in times like this.... it's my cold wallet that is being brutally hit what concerns me.


Just think about the WinkleVii's or Tim Draper's cold wallet and you'll feel a whole lot better.  Wink

I tried. But it doesn't help. Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I keep repeating it but... If we could act as if that $20K peak never happened (so ridiculously soon) I would be pretty happy right now. That's the only thing that helps for me.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).

Possibilities seem like this:

1) you did not sell enough on the way up  (anyone can kind of feel like that)

2) you sold on the way up, but you bought back too soon, so now you are running out of money to buy  (there seems to be a remedy for this, and that is to just budget a plan for on the way down - but of course, if you don't have any money for buying and you don't want to sell any then you just have to HODL, suck it up , and hope to fix the mistake in the future).

3) could be some other possibilities, but I cannot think of them, at this moment.    Wink

It's mostly 1, also 2... and for 3 here comes the explanation: In 2013/2014 I had most of my BTC on exchanges for active trading, that let me double my stash in BTC count even if the total value was lower than before the drop. This time I kept reducing my exposure to exchanges. In the end I was only trading with around 10% of my total stash, and I didn't even sell all of that 10% as I keep doing scalping in a way similar to yours as we have discussed before.

So even if I ended with a 30 or 40% gain in my trading during the drop, that is for only a 10% of my total stash... sooooo a measly 3-4% total gain in coins vs a drop of 65% in price from the ATH... ouch!

It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.

JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 5183


ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:02:25 AM

Ok. Here's some despair.

I'm not proud to be asking this question, but...

"Does it look like Doug Polk will lose his bet ?"

I'll bet you 0.1 BTC it does go below $6000. Tongue

If it doesn't, I will Jello wrestle you for the amusement of JJG.

I am not sure whether I understand the bet?  There is a jello wrestle between infofront and yefi, but only if BTC prices go below $6k?

This is like a win, either way?    If prices do not go below $6k, then value of BTC holdings remain strong.  If prices go below $6k, then get to have a jello wrestling session. win win.   Wink
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:04:42 AM


It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.



I remember when this happened like it was yesterday.
I was cool as Kim Deal. Now I'm a total wreck. Karma coming to get me.
Anon136
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722
Merit: 1216



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:06:10 AM

I just ran into this. This is so stupid.

No shit it can't look like the one on the right. The one on the right is the problem. That's what bitcoin looks like right now and it's the reason why it doesn't scale.

What Lightning ACTUALLY looks like.


https://lnmainnet.gaben.win/

We're in good hands.

That looks most similar to the middle one of the three wouldn't you say?

Also, omg that hr tag. I am so excited to incorporate that into my posts. Just the sort of thing I have been looking for. +merit for you sir.
kingcolex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2366
Merit: 1258



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:08:42 AM

Yay a small pump!
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3122
Merit: 3246


Volcano Corn!


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:09:22 AM
Merited by Rosewater Foundation (2)

Bob touting the merits of Lightning Network. Get ready for another leg down.

If you have a Whole Foods (Amazon-whiteguilthippiefoodstore)  in your area you might procure yourself a bottle of the Don Simon Cabernet Sauvingnon.

It's currently ~ 0.0006 BTC.  You can afford it.

For swill, I find it has a very spicy and interesting palate and it makes all your pain very quiet... not silent mind you... but it shoves it into a cheap sort of grape filled cave in which you will mistake a random rock for a pillow.

It's that good.

You can rinse and repeat tomorrow.

If you don't have a Whole Foods (virtuesignalinguppermiddleclassemporium) in poutine-land perhaps you could try a 2 buck chuck?  

I'll review one of those if need be.

Let me know.
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:10:24 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (20)

Meritorious^
cAPSLOCK
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3122
Merit: 3246


Volcano Corn!


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 02:16:07 AM



This is actually pretty fucking good.

Maybe some of the better TA I have seen in a while

(No offense Toxic... your TA is more than TA... it is art.)
Pages: « 1 ... 20480 20481 20482 20483 20484 20485 20486 20487 20488 20489 20490 20491 20492 20493 20494 20495 20496 20497 20498 20499 20500 20501 20502 20503 20504 20505 20506 20507 20508 20509 20510 20511 20512 20513 20514 20515 20516 20517 20518 20519 20520 20521 20522 20523 20524 20525 20526 20527 20528 20529 [20530] 20531 20532 20533 20534 20535 20536 20537 20538 20539 20540 20541 20542 20543 20544 20545 20546 20547 20548 20549 20550 20551 20552 20553 20554 20555 20556 20557 20558 20559 20560 20561 20562 20563 20564 20565 20566 20567 20568 20569 20570 20571 20572 20573 20574 20575 20576 20577 20578 20579 20580 ... 29954 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!