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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25638809 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (168 posts by 4 users with 9 merit deleted.)
El duderino_
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June 14, 2018, 10:13:35 PM

Up another $160 and we'll close the week in green. Or at least a doji.

Target: $6782 by Sunday.




 Grin  Roll Eyes
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RivAngE
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June 14, 2018, 10:56:31 PM

That's one interesting article!
http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/study-claims-bitcoin-price-manipulation/

However they just mention that spoofing and/or washing could have been used to manipulate BTC price, but the article doesn't mention how did they run this study.
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June 14, 2018, 11:04:14 PM
Merited by Rosewater Foundation (1)

Are you really willing to let your current net worth get cut in half? Again?

Yes. Because the alternative scenario is letting my current net worth double. Again.

Can't win if you forfeit the game.
samson
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June 14, 2018, 11:08:02 PM
Merited by Rosewater Foundation (2)

QUICK list 12288 is finisht GOOD LUCK   WO's

16/04/2018 serveria.com Sad
27/04/2018 BinaryReign Sad
<snip>
10/04/2020 yefi
05/09/2020 samson   
23/06/2021 fortune143             

I really hope I'm wrong on this speculation....
jojo69
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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June 14, 2018, 11:15:38 PM

Are you really willing to let your current net worth get cut in half? Again?

Yes. Because the alternative scenario is letting my current net worth double. Again.

Can't win if you forfeit the game.

ding ding ding ding

we have a winner
Hueristic
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June 14, 2018, 11:19:02 PM

Pasting goatse images to satoshis.place.

"Has Lightning gone to far ?"  Huh

That's not goatse, silly. That's Roger Ver.

Just Penises.



Lol
jbreher
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June 14, 2018, 11:22:51 PM

BTC Dominance: 40

Can we get a new poll, at which price point will the miners run out of spare funds to support bcash?

Never. Same hash algo. They can instantly retarget their hashpower to whatever garners them profit. As some miners abandon BCH (as if -- who is it misguided BTC maximalists insist is the primary driving force behind BCH?), it becomes more profitable for those that remain. And unlike BTC, BCH can ratchet down its difficulty to ensure stability under any circumstance.

kampai!
When flip?

Haha. I know you're just trolling me, but I'll play along.

Don't know. Don't even know if it will. I think it will, due to the support of way more use cases at minimal complexity. But that's a future unknown to us as of yet.
windjc
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June 14, 2018, 11:50:29 PM

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

For reasons like this, I continue to conclude (personally) that leveraging is not necessary, especially in bitcoin.  In bitcoin we are lucky to experience outrageously stupendous returns, and I we do not need to leverage in order to achieve such outrageously stupendous returns on our investment. 

Accordingly, if you just invest regularly, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put in - but if you employ leverage (especially using the margin trade vehicles supplied by exchanges), you not only can lose your 100% more quickly, you also lose it way faster, which causes a kind of magnification that if you employ 4x leverage than you can lose 400% - something like that.  Therefore, I still consider any kind of leveraging to be too far into a "gambling" rather than "investing" category, especially with bitcoin.

That's exactly what I'd like to conclude. It's a total gamble, and I'd not suggest anyone anymore to be a part of leveraging at BitMex. I still can't believe how easily I lost it all just because of a dump which is not even visible on CoinMarketCap (I'd repeat that again - I'm 100% sure & confident that I got liquidated right at the bottom which was $6140). Moreover, when I was about to get liquidated at $6140, I tried to increase the margin further with a little bit of more BTC (which would've increased the liquidation level to $6050 instead of $6140 and I'd have been saved from being liquidated), but effing system of BitMex gave me an error (system overload, try again later). It's not easy for me to just invest more into bitcoin when I've my whole family to support, my education bills to pay and all other hell. It's surely going to take a while to recover from the two recent losses of BitMex and DENT at CoinRail (I highly doubt that I'll get the DENT back from CoinRail, even though they've been telling me to calm down).

A recap:

-Sold my GPT websites network for 919 bitcoins in 2011, used bitcoin as "just another" payment processor. Started saving the dollars at LibertyReserve.com.
-Lost every penny of savings at LibertyReserve.com (this is when I realized that bitcoin could be the future after reading an article at CoinDesk).
-Bought a huge bag of ZCL from my savings in mid-2017 thinking it has gone down by 70%, and can't go further down, but it continued its decline.
-Shilled ZCL in almost all 2017. Gave idea of Bitcoin Private to Rhett, but he said it's "worthless" and he's going to abandon the project of ZCL. I could've developed BTCP on my own if it wasn't for integration of stupid two way replay protection. Sold all ZCL in November at $2 each due to fear of getting it de-listed from Bittrex (as there was no trading volume present). He then introduced my idea of BTCP in December and ZCL skyrocketed to $200. Now John McAfee shills BTCP all the time.

All of this can be considered as a proof that I got my savings liquidated right at the bottom and we won't see bitcoin below $6100 again.

Nice words tweeted by Vinny Lingham:



Vinny is not the deepest thinker.
d_eddie
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June 14, 2018, 11:58:21 PM

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

For reasons like this, I continue to conclude (personally) that leveraging is not necessary, especially in bitcoin.  In bitcoin we are lucky to experience outrageously stupendous returns, and I we do not need to leverage in order to achieve such outrageously stupendous returns on our investment.

Leveraging is a power tool that shouldn't be used lightheartedly. An understanding of the underlying arithmetic helps. On Bitmex in particular, shorts that are leveraged under 1 can't be liquidated at any price and only become a loss if/when the position is closed.

Quote
Accordingly, if you just invest regularly, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put in - but if you employ leverage (especially using the margin trade vehicles supplied by exchanges), you not only can lose your 100% more quickly, you also lose it way faster, which causes a kind of magnification that if you employ 4x leverage than you can lose 400% - something like that.

Well, kind of, yes. For example, if you make 4 repeated trades that burn each of their 100% approximately 4x times faster. Other side of the coin: for example, if you are using a leveraged position as a hedge, so you can hedge 4x times as much for the same "cost" (margin), admittedly on a smaller range. Not necessarily 4x smaller, though. The arithmetic details can get tricky.
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June 15, 2018, 12:03:00 AM

I'm very disheartened today. Lost a major chunk of my bitcoin holdings (almost 0.38 BTC) on Bitmex even though I've been longing since $8000 with just 4x leverage (adding more & more after every dump to average it further down), but still at $6140, I got liquidated. With this, I can pretty much assure that $6140 was actually the bottom. It was only to liquidate me, hard luck. Don't comment that I need to risk only what I can afford to lose, I know that very well, just had some real bad luck (as well as confusion) this time.

For reasons like this, I continue to conclude (personally) that leveraging is not necessary, especially in bitcoin.  In bitcoin we are lucky to experience outrageously stupendous returns, and I we do not need to leverage in order to achieve such outrageously stupendous returns on our investment.

Leveraging is a power tool that shouldn't be used lightheartedly. An understanding of the underlying arithmetic helps. On Bitmex in particular, shorts that are leveraged under 1 can't be liquidated at any price and only become a loss if/when the position is closed.

Quote
Accordingly, if you just invest regularly, then the most that you can lose is 100% of what you put in - but if you employ leverage (especially using the margin trade vehicles supplied by exchanges), you not only can lose your 100% more quickly, you also lose it way faster, which causes a kind of magnification that if you employ 4x leverage than you can lose 400% - something like that.

Well, kind of, yes. For example, if you make 4 repeated trades that burn each of their 100% approximately 4x times faster. Other side of the coin: for example, if you are using a leveraged position as a hedge, so you can hedge 4x times as much for the same "cost" (margin), admittedly on a smaller range. Not necessarily 4x smaller, though. The arithmetic details can get tricky.


*sounds like a Bitmex'er*
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June 15, 2018, 12:04:51 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

I'm so tired of all of this ignorant anti lighting network rhetoric that I keep hearing and seeing constantly. Do you guys think Ver is funding this BS.

My guess is 'no'. I'm probably the most persistent Bitcoin* believer / SegWit skeptic still participating in this thread, and I ain't getting paid. (Most others of my opinions seem to have left for more hospitable climes). And while I may have a limited perspective on the matter, I think this thread is one of the most important centers of mindshare in Bitcoindom. You'd think that if there were expenditures on shillery, this thread would be one of the major targets.

*whether BTC or BCH

Incidentally, the Bitcoin network topology is nothing like the diagram on the right.
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June 15, 2018, 12:08:50 AM
Last edit: June 15, 2018, 12:35:16 AM by d_eddie
Merited by infofront (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Well, at least somebody is trying to hold "The bottom" up... . (Mic post some good pic)  Cheesy Wink

Confirmed. Bottom is being held up.




Sometimes I feel like my biggest contribution to this thread is butt pictures, but I guess that's good enough.

Here goes the last merit in my quota for legendaries or quasi-legendaries (>1k guys).

I was hoping to give it to Last of the V8's, but he didn't take my invitation. About time for me to tribute infofront's status as a top bottom poster.

As an aside for gentlemen only - If I had that kind of panorama readily available, I wouldn't mind the current search for any other bottoms.

EDIT - sh** I f*** up, not 2! I never gave more than 1 merit to any single post. I tricked myself into clicking that button with both... uh, hands.

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June 15, 2018, 12:09:55 AM

Incidentally, the Bitcoin network topology is nothing like the diagram on the right.

It's like the one on the right but with crap dangling off of it. There is a large community of full node operators, that community looks like that picture on the right, if others decide to tack their own structures onto it that doesn't change the fact that the underlying one is still there.
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June 15, 2018, 12:58:43 AM
Merited by bitserve (1)

(quotes freely snipped for relevance)


Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).
We're soul brothers in a way - but swings and opportunities aren't over yet. New profits can and will come, and the one thing I learned about trading is: The only way to really learn a lesson is pay for it. You paid handsomely, but you're still in the green. Your glass is half full, see? And it's Don Simon Premium, not the usual stuff!

It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.
I also paid my lessons through the nose. Still in the green, though, using my new knowledge from old mistakes to make some corn on the side, and still learning useful tidbits at a much more reasonable price. See you at the 100k party sooner than we both think?
Toxic2040
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June 15, 2018, 01:15:23 AM

Bitcoin...1 year later.

4h


D
Rising volume is what I am noticing, a good sign. Still shying away from testing the 9 day conversion line(tenkan-sen). Looks to me like bears are going to make another push downward over the weekend. #stronghands
xhomerx10
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June 15, 2018, 01:18:30 AM


 Very poorly worded.  It actually doesnt make sense as written.
Which luxury is he lacking?  Has he been living a hand-to-mouth existence?  He's a fucking millionaire.

Edit:  im a fucking idiot.  I'll blame it on the night shifts...
It's perfectly written in plain english.
jbreher
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June 15, 2018, 01:26:26 AM

Real money can only be created out of production and only after this has happened, can it be borrowed to create debt, not the other way around. The current monetary system is not real money, it is a house of cards built on decades of mind-fucking the public. There will be an awakening.

Or, there will be a reckoning. Brought on by a r3kt-oning.
jbreher
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June 15, 2018, 01:33:27 AM

You and many others in this thread are basically saying
"Fractional Reserve is shit"

Let's not forget it's backed by Proof of War.

It should be obvious, but this fact seems to have escaped your attention: the fact that fiat is backed by proof of war does not lead to a conclusion that it is not shit.
bitserve
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June 15, 2018, 01:47:40 AM
Last edit: June 15, 2018, 02:05:44 AM by bitserve

(quotes freely snipped for relevance)


Still having more money than you could probably spend (as such whales do) is not that terrible even if your net worth gets a cut of several hundred millions. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think they are as much depressed as I am right now.

I played this past peak much worse than I did the previous (2013) in which I doubled my Bitcoin count. The blame is on me (or my greed).

P.S.: No, not going to break/sell. I can perfectly (and depressedly) ride this thing until ZERO. I am more worried about the amount of profits already (even if temporarily?) lost than what I still have to lose (which is LESS).
We're soul brothers in a way - but swings and opportunities aren't over yet. New profits can and will come, and the one thing I learned about trading is: The only way to really learn a lesson is pay for it. You paid handsomely, but you're still in the green. Your glass is half full, see? And it's Don Simon Premium, not the usual stuff!

It's basically that.... I didn't play well this time... But hindsight is 20/20... and I really don't like to have a substantial exposure to exchanges anymore.

So yeah, hodl and suck it up. In the end I will be fine... or not. We will see.

I also paid my lessons through the nose. Still in the green, though, using my new knowledge from old mistakes to make some corn on the side, and still learning useful tidbits at a much more reasonable price. See you at the 100k party sooner than we both think?

Yeah, I know we don't have reasons to complain for the most part... yet at the same time it hurts... and I don't think there's nothing wrong in acknowledging both.

And... who knows, the $100K party is currently still less than x20 away.... We have seen the badger do way crazier things in very little time, so... who knows!

Thinking about it... The $100K party would be the *most justified* "excuse" for a celebration party EVER!
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June 15, 2018, 02:03:58 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

There is a thread out "there" already...but what ever. This is worth posting here imo.

Tom Lee of FundStrat is saying there is a reason for the cyclic sell-offs we have been seeing..seems legit. For all you daytarders it might behoove you to sync up somewhat to what is going on over there at the CBOE..  ymmv.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrat-s-thomas-lee-weakness-in-bitcoin-is-caused-by-futures-expiration

Quote
According to Lee, Bitcoin usually sees a drop of around 18 percent in 10 days before futures expiration, with prices generally recovering by six days afterward. Lee explained that if a trader is long on Bitcoin and short the futures, holders may sell large shares of BTC at the volume weighted average price as contracts move closer to expiring.

Near expiration however, they may sell the remaining Bitcoin, which causes the price to drop, and leaving the short position in the futures they close “with a handsome profit.”

----------
Forgot a 1h chart.
Hold through this and we might see some green cloud action soon.
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