@JJG
Tbh buddy, I need to buy a diary (I like paper records) and write down a few price/sell scenarios. I need to be much better prepared for the next parabolic bull run.
The last one took me by surprise & I was a little bit like a deer in headlights.
We all need to have a fixed sell point for a % of our bitcoin’s in my opinion. I might go out tomorrow & buy a diary then scribble a few things down tomorrow night.
IMHO, all plans go astray when market hit you in the face as hard as the last time.
I don't think that all plans go astray. The reason that you plan is to attempt to follow the plan to the best that you can, and of course, you have the power to adjust the plan (at your own discretion) and even if you attempt to have some rigidness in your plan, there is some value to both rigidness and flexibility.
Some of the ability to follow through with the plan is to really think through a variety of scenarios and consider if those variety of scenarios are going to affect you to want to have a different plan, and experience with bitcoin helps and experience with attempting to follow a plan in the past should help too, even if you failed to follow the plan in the past, your actual failure (and why you believe you failed) should inform you to create and to follow a better plan the next time around.
I understand that several times I have pointed out
rpietila's "(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan" thread, and a thread like that seems like a "must read" for anyone who is experiencing dilemmas about attempting to follow a BTC cashing out plan. I participate in the thread and certainly don't agree with all of the ideas of OP, but the thread still provides a variety of ways to think about creating a cashing out plan, attempting to stick with it and food for thought about whether tweaking any such plan might be individualistically better.
As far as my claim that experience has an ability to teach us how to attempt to act less emotionally, I have a lot of experiences of acting on emotions myself, but it still seems to me that going through a lot of bitcoin price change scenarios while playing around with your portfolio can provide a decent amount of information regarding how you specifically act in those kinds of situations. A fairly early example of mine is that during most of 2015 when BTC prices were largely bouncing around between $220 and $280, I got quite a bit nervous when in late October / Early November 2015, BTC prices shot up to $500 within less than a week. So, my well-thought through plan told me to sell BTC at various incremental amounts on the way up, but instead of selling, I cancelled my sell orders between about $380 and $500, and instead, at $500 I used a large amount of my remaining fiat to buy BTC. The BTC price then reversed and largely got stuck between $350 and $450 from early November 2015 until the end of may 2016. it was frustrating as fuck because i mostly had used a large amount of my fiat to buy at the top and i was largely locked out of doing anything for 6 months (I actually did cheat and reconfigure my trading plan in order that I could get back in business, but still I had done the opposite of what my plan had told me to do with some regrets for several months about letting my emotions get in the way).
I promised to someone to sell a certain amount at 10K, then market surged and I sold only 1/10 of what was agreed.
I agree you allowed your emotions to screw up your previously made plan, and you also tweaked your plan way more than you should have (likely based on emotions)
Now, i am not certain whether i should still go ahead at 10-11K (if and when we get there) OR wait it out.
Personally, I think that part of your problem is that your emotions are causing you to act out in too greedy of a way. I understand that "greedy" is a negative assertion, but let's be real. You are trying to maximize your profits and NOT allowing more moderation because you are afraid of missing out on "moar" profits.
I say, fuck the more profits, and part of the solution is to come up with a plan that is totally acceptable to you, and therefore modify how you are thinking about the matter, and who gives any shits if you sell some BTC at $10k and BTC prices go non-stop to $50k without correcting. Anyhow, what I am trying to say, is that if you ended up only selling 1/10 of your original plan, then you need to find an amount that you can live with NO matter what the subsequent BTC price direction and thereafter maybe sell 1/5 at $10k and then the remaining 4/5ths at price increments higher than $10k (such as $12k, $14.5k, and $16.5k or whatever you can find acceptable).
From prior btc bull markets, they always tend to go to new ATHs; on the other hand-what if this is the first time it wouldn't happen (as unlikely as it is)?
You are absolutely correct. It remains possible that BTC will never ever again reach any new ATH or even might not reach $10k again. And, yes, the odds of BTC flaming out like that are not high, but the odds are non-zero. That's for sure.
Another thought: I rather not plan selling at exact numbers, but maybe at a certain time vis-a-vis what I want to do with the proceeds.
It is a good practice to consider both price intervals and time intervals, and cashing out to buy your good or service at a certain time could end up backfiring considerably, so it is likely better to front load your cashing out, rather than gambling to sell BTC at the exact moment that your expense comes due (such as planning to cash out x amount in June 2020.. or whatever happens to be your time line). On the other hand, if your BTC stash is in considerable profits, you could start to employ a plan in which you just cash out BTC at various times during the year, no matter the BTC price (and make some attempts to cash out some of those when the BTC price seems to be UP).
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