Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Guys, 8-9 years ago $1 jumps a day were huge. 5-6 years ago $10-50 jumps a day were huge. 2 years ago $100 jumps a day were huge. And now same is happening with $500-1000 jumps a day. Indicator for where we are heading to?

Anything below 7 digits is undervalued relative to the price a decade or two from now.

A snowball effect where the global Economy adapts Bitcoin as its lifeblood could reasonably see 8 digits within a millenial's lifetime.

The $3m estimate we saw on this thread the other day only considered 10% of M2, so 8 digits are well within current parameters if fiat currencies implode OR the M2 growth rate persists.


If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


You'd have to factor out the printing presses, which could significantly drop this number.

But mid to high 8 digits seem anything but ridiculous before the year 2119.

[1679574749]

1679574749

[1679574749]

1679574749

[1679574749]

1679574749

[1679574749]

1679574749

[STT]

I think the waves will continue until maybe November of December... then is will break UP.



Or well, will see...

So Phil I need an update, clarify for me wtf is happening because this latest move is quite a surprise to me.    We broke down from your chart before this 8100 now but I'd appreciate an update on a simple theme like this because I think the biggest moves come from the simple takes that catch the majority of the market trend.   Is 8000 a good call for this price move to rest now

Sadly my charts are out of whack as the site went down, I'll transfer or redraw them I guess but still I'm off any regular perspective

We’re up nearly 60% in the last 30 days

Quiet storm, what happened?  I still dont know

[makrospex]

Next pump...
Keep going, Hongkong 

[Ipwich]

And we finally bounce back again, this run is so fast, it could go to as high as $8 .
I'm gonna sleep later but I'm sure with so much excitement now, it will give me a hard time to sleep.

Good morning everyone, I was never wrong with my price prediction this morning.

Welcome $8K, happy to finally have you here, please don't stay awhile, we want $9K next.

[fabiorem]

Where are the Vegetas? We are already at 8k.

[g-uid]

Curious to hear from r0ach.

[El duderino_]

Curious to hear from r0ach.

Called him loudly

Only Echooooooooooooooo's

[Last of the V8s]

Not chucking-out time at the homeless shelter yet.

[barota]

The Ghost. People do not want to buy and hold bitcoin
you can pump it and buy all 21000000 btc
Human fuckers .
ghosts do it now quickly !! the time Very fast . fuck this very small world
i can't wait this this fuckin dump and strong sell any more
come on

Why don’t you buy all the bitcoin’s yourself if it’s that easy to pump the price. Are you a fucking moron?

The Ghost. People do not want to sell and hold usd
you can dump it and sell all 21000000 btc
Human fuckers .
ghosts do it now quickly !! the time Very fast . fuck this very small world
i can't wait this this fuckin pump and strong buy any more
come on

[El duderino_]

And we finally bounce back again, this run is so fast, it could go to as high as $8 .
I'm gonna sleep later but I'm sure with so much excitement now, it will give me a hard time to sleep.

Good morning everyone, I was never wrong with my price prediction this morning.

Welcome $8K, happy to finally have you here, please don't stay awhile, we want $9K next.

Damn who Will be the first one with an on time Vegeta??

[fillippone]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[infofront]

Curious to hear from r0ach.

I'm interested to know how his analog Bitcoin is performing compared to real Bitcoin.

[El duderino_]

One Question

when 5-digits

[El duderino_]

Curious to hear from r0ach.

I'm interested to know how his analog Bitcoin is performing compared to real Bitcoin.

Spend my last Sm cause of you 1666 horror merit count...

And cause of your continiously holding up with us MOONboys and taking good care of this amazing place

Cheers infofront

[Ipwich]

One Question

when 5-digits

Would be very happy if we will see that 5 digit before the 1st half of the year ends.
Imagine if bitcoin will hit $10,000 by June, there will be bigger FOMO In the 2nd half of the year and we will see a new ATH this year.

[toknormal]

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.

These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZKrQwNAhEU I will not part with a single coin

[Biodom]

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.

These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.

Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not?
Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril.
I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash.

Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.

These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.

While true that we could denominate any number of metrics in tons of copper without those tons of copper physically existing, that point does not exactly apply to the definition of M2 (cash and liquid assets).

And yes, you certainly can use M2 in such a manner to estimate future Bitcoin prices based on different events (such as Bitcoin becoming the main used global currency, which is quite likely at this point because nobody wants to convert from one fiat to another, even implicitly without knowing, while shopping online with Paypal and losing money to exchange rates).

While precise estimates would require a more in depth analysis, the principle holds due the definition of M2 (for the M1 part) and the velocity of money models (for the M2\M1 = liquid assets) part of the definition.

[makrospex]

finally calmingly correcting... 7800... how low will we go?