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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
50,000 - 0 (0%)
60,000 - 1 (6.3%)
70,000 - 1 (6.3%)
80,000 - 1 (6.3%)
90,000 - 0 (0%)
100,000 - 1 (6.3%)
125,000 - 4 (25%)
150,000 - 0 (0%)
175,000 - 2 (12.5%)
200,000 - 0 (0%)
225,000 - 2 (12.5%)
250,000 - 1 (6.3%)
275,000 - 1 (6.3%)
300,000 - 0 (0%)
>300,000 - 2 (12.5%)
Total Voters: 16

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25530015 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
realr0ach
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May 13, 2019, 06:07:07 AM

there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin

Maybe a random idiot will buy some TESLA stock too?  Instead of claiming it has some type of fundamentals - it doesn't, it's designed to centralize and there's no reason for it to exist since the first day sha256 ASICs were created except for very temporary regulatory arbitrage - his 'shtick' is that "maybe a random idiot will buy some and increase the price".  JayJuanGee is the world's least mentally endowed pump and dump scammer ever created.
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arcmetal
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May 13, 2019, 06:09:08 AM

hehe, this be true and wise.  But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.

You can edit embedded quotes. Just Say No, to r0ach.  He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
Certainly, but what intrigued me most was JayJuanGee's comment:

...
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...

There seem many here willing to post all sorts of explanations for the current bull run, any of which is plausible, but unprovable, except to realize that not all have entered into buying any bitcoin.  In my opinion, this reason is enough to explain every bull run.

Personally, I don't get too animated by any single theory explanations for BTC's price performance.

Surely, BTC development and adoption has increased in the past 7 years, and during that time, and we have had two or three (if you count 2013 as two) bull runs in those past 7 years.  BTC's adoption seems to be coming along slow, in terms of total number of people getting involved, yet it is still becoming much more popular, including way more avenues of liquidity through exchanges, ATMs, merchants (not so much on this count) and otherwise.  One area of development that still seems to be in its early stages is financialization, and surely more financial tools are coming available, and financial institutions are increasingly studying the bitcoin space and proposing various kinds of bitcoin financial products that they are considering to offer, so even though financialization seems like a double edged sword, it also seem like the direction that an accepted asset grows, and bitcoin does seem to be headed in that direction....

Back in 2011 I could keep up with every new development surrounding bitcoin, but today, I certainly cannot.  That it gets absorbed by all sorts of financial instruments was inevitable, and for the most part a good thing.

What I mean by double edged sword is that there are likely going to be various means to manipulate Bitcoin's price up and down, but it seems that through increasing awareness and legitimacy that will come through increased financialization, and through the robustness of bitcoin's code, bitcoin is going to likely survive through these likely upcoming turmoil periods.... Don't get me wrong, I am not arguing that bitcoin needs financialization, but I am asserting that financialization seems to be an inevitable direction for BTC whether incumbent BTC HODLers want the double edged sword aspects such increasing financialization or not.  
I have also recently noticed this double edged sword of it being absorbed by the institutions.  I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply.  This is a property that has never existed in any other asset, its closest example may be gold.

Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.
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May 13, 2019, 06:23:38 AM

I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply.  

If you're in the camp that believes Bitcoin wasn't created by the govt as a trojan horse for a cashless society slavery system, then their op to control the price would have obviously been when they launched those CME derivatives.  Since nobody uses them, they would likely shift to plan B and do something like walk into Coinbase, issue a gag order and seize it under "national security" while paying them off with some stipend, then go full blown fractional reserve Gox 2.0.

If you assume bitcoin is not created by the govt as a trojan horse, their goal is to obviously control the price through fraudulent derivatives just like they do in metals.  For their next step, since step one obviously didn't work, they would either do something like take over Coinbase and manipulate there or just try to outlaw them all together.  I don't really see that happening myself since bitcoin is likely a govt invention and they want people to buy these dystopian tracking system tokens instead of metals.
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May 13, 2019, 06:29:12 AM

there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin

Maybe a random idiot will buy some TESLA stock too?  Instead of claiming it has some type of fundamentals - it doesn't, it's designed to centralize and there's no reason for it to exist since the first day sha256 ASICs were created except for very temporary regulatory arbitrage - his 'shtick' is that "maybe a random idiot will buy some and increase the price".  JayJuanGee is the world's least mentally endowed pump and dump scammer ever created.

Get the fuck out of here with your lame ass attempt at a comparison to TESLA...

Bitcoin is not a fucking stock.. get it into your thick racist skull.

Furthermore, there is no import about whether I want bitcoin or not or whether I attempt to pump bitcoin or not.  I am just one person posting on a random bitcoin thread.  Who the fuck cares what I say, and especially bitcoin does not care what I say.

In other words, I am starting to feel like a broken record, value is going to gravitate into bitcoin because it is the most sound money ever created or found, and that includes your manipulated gold that has paper versions and also an ability to mine more of it.  Bitcoin's supply is fixed.  An interesting concept to have an actual fixed supply of something. 
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May 13, 2019, 06:34:30 AM

[edited out].
Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.

Exactly!!... And, each of us likely know that even though bitcoin has a limited supply and an ability for individuals to immediately demand their private keys, institutions are going to try to manipulate bitcoin, but there are likely going to be some learning involved from individuals to realize that they can keep institutions in check by demanding their private keys.

It will take a while for these matters to play out (game theory or whatever), but one of the powerful aspects of bitcoin remains the power of the people to exercise control over their asset in an immediate way.
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May 13, 2019, 06:50:08 AM

I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply.  

If you're in the camp that believes Bitcoin wasn't created by the govt as a trojan horse for a cashless society slavery system, then their op to control the price would have obviously been when they launched those CME derivatives.  Since nobody uses them, they would likely shift to plan B and do something like walk into Coinbase, issue a gag order and seize it under "national security" while paying them off with some stipend, then go full blown fractional reserve Gox 2.0.

If you assume bitcoin is not created by the govt as a trojan horse, their goal is to obviously control the price through fraudulent derivatives just like they do in metals.  For their next step, since step one obviously didn't work, they would either do something like take over Coinbase and manipulate there or just try to outlaw them all together.  I don't really see that happening myself since bitcoin is likely a govt invention and they want people to buy these dystopian tracking system tokens instead of metals.
Its a nonsensical argument since bitcoin is designed to be like cash, or rather better than cash.  So one would not create something that works like cash for a "cashless" society.

And if you're worried about the tracking aspect ... there are ways to make this it more private.  I believe they are called those "privacy" coins.  Also, it seems that bitcoin can, and might, absorb these privacy technologies.

Taking over coinbase wouldn't have that much of an effect anymore.  Instead they'd have to try to take over every exchange, but this is getting more difficult to do every day, and you'd have to consider the decentralized exchanges.  So, not really realistic.
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May 13, 2019, 06:58:22 AM

How come (((they))) haven't removed Roach yet? He obviously knows too much and is willing to selflessly battle ignorance and prejudice in order to warn us of our follies and help fight the evil that lurks in this world. What a noble soul! But I have to fear for him...if his reputation becomes more high-profile, I am sure (((they))) will take note and shut him up. forever.

Therefore, please don't quote Roach. It's for his own good...mmkay?
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May 13, 2019, 07:00:09 AM

[edited out].
Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.

Exactly!!... And, each of us likely know that even though bitcoin has a limited supply and an ability for individuals to immediately demand their private keys, institutions are going to try to manipulate bitcoin, but there are likely going to be some learning involved from individuals to realize that they can keep institutions in check by demanding their private keys.

It will take a while for these matters to play out (game theory or whatever), but one of the powerful aspects of bitcoin remains the power of the people to exercise control over their asset in an immediate way.
Yes, but sadly plenty of laypeople will be taken advantage of simply for not knowing the basics.  This stuff is still too knew.

I still remember when I was little and taught in class about how to use and count pennies, nickels, dimes, quarters, etc.  Does anyone here recall getting taught the basics of bitcoin in the first grade?  Of course not, because this tech is only ten years old.

It may be a generation later before everyone knows the basics enough to defend their stash of coins.
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May 13, 2019, 07:01:00 AM

Its a nonsensical argument since bitcoin is designed to be like cash, or rather better than cash.

That was the most nonsensical argument I've ever heard in this thread, even dwarfing that of JayJuanGee jibberish.  Absolutely nothing has changed from Hal Finney's original statement about Bitcoin functioning only as a settlement system.  Lightning Network is a giant, ultra-centralized flop that's just an exact recreation of the already existing banking system.
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May 13, 2019, 07:20:47 AM

Voted $10000-$20000 because... reasons  Cool
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May 13, 2019, 07:21:21 AM

Its now Monday in most of the world, voting day here in the PI (no alcohol for sale all day boo....), but I have a new haiku anyway:

Yay, a new laptop!
Can thank BTC for that.
Goodbye phone posting!
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May 13, 2019, 07:27:51 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

I find it amusing how the somewhat maligned teenagers in their parents basements making charts on tradingview and crypto twitter have issued better calls than many of these "experts".

It's scientifically proven that experts are not very good at predicting the future. Interesting article:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/

Quote
The integrators outperformed their colleagues in pretty much every way, but especially trounced them on long-term predictions. Eventually, Tetlock bestowed nicknames on the experts he’d observed: The highly specialized hedgehogs knew “one big thing,” while the integrator foxes knew “many little things.”

Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. They fashion tidy theories of how the world works based on observations through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.

Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.

In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were much more likely to adjust their ideas. Hedgehogs barely budged. Some made authoritative predictions that turned out to be wildly wrong—then updated their theories in the wrong direction. They became even more convinced of the original beliefs that had led them astray. The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.
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May 13, 2019, 08:09:58 AM

.....

You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back.  He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin.  Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."

And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then?  And his response was "yes". ...

He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say.  The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone.  There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one.  I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.

It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.



I would say his responses are more indicative of his fear of loss as well as need to stay with the herd.

Many people exhibit this irrational response to a highly speculative investment.  They are not willing to risk any small loss, even for the prospect of a very large gain. 'Safety' in that type of view, is worth more than any potential reward from a gamble.
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May 13, 2019, 08:17:31 AM

Keep pulling until the bull run comes.


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May 13, 2019, 08:34:30 AM

Its now Monday in most of the world, voting day here in the PI (no alcohol for sale all day boo....), but I have a new haiku anyway:

Yay, a new laptop!
Can thank BTC for that.
Goodbye phone posting!

Good, which  one did you buy Smiley
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May 13, 2019, 08:42:21 AM

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May 13, 2019, 08:58:58 AM



7052 $ @the moment, Monday feels better as a few months weeks back!

Lambie update the baby Bull please.....

Gyrsur, where is that brick of gold? ------> F*ck was just typing that one!

How many seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks are critical?

HM, fear and greed update?

r0ach, keep making noise Roll Eyes

LFC, chin up 2nd place is pity but still big achievement with 97 points and a Final place @champions league, lets take that one home!

kenzawak, living the dream visiting nice spots Smiley COOL man Grin

boblawblaw, you must be more active during these pumps, we need you Smiley

XhomerX, yeah what can we say only one word awesome, keep doing your sh*t man

jjg, slow down, don't feed the troll to much

And so many things to say, but f*ck gotta go to a place ........ Have a good day brothers

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May 13, 2019, 09:18:20 AM

Its now Monday in most of the world, voting day here in the PI (no alcohol for sale all day boo....), but I have a new haiku anyway:

Yay, a new laptop!
Can thank BTC for that.
Goodbye phone posting!

Good, which  one did you buy Smiley

Its a HP ProBook, thanks for asking. Not very glamorous but it will get the job done!

They put a 70% tax on imported electrical goods here, and since they don't make their own computers, its really a bitch to find a decent laptop at a reasonable price. Don't know why they do that -- its like they are making it harder for their own people to be technologically competitive. Its really hard to find a job online if you are trying to make a resume on your cell phone.

They have 1 cell phone manufacturer, called MyPhone, and while the name sounds a bit cheesy I bought my girlfriend one of their tablets over a year ago for $60 and it still works great. It really was life changing for her. I would buy their brand laptop if they made one.
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May 13, 2019, 09:18:21 AM

@mic - I’m not too disappointed because we have the CL Final to come. I’d rather win that any way, much more prestigious trophy.

I’m off to Budapest tomorrow for 4 days, going to try & find some cool bitcoin cate’s or something to show you guys.

$7,000 feels great doesn’t it. $3189 or whatever the bottom was looks so far away now doesn’t it.
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May 13, 2019, 09:33:58 AM

.....

You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back.  He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin.  Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."

And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then?  And his response was "yes". ...

He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say.  The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone.  There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one.  I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.

It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.



I would say his responses are more indicative of his fear of loss as well as need to stay with the herd.

Many people exhibit this irrational response to a highly speculative investment.  They are not willing to risk any small loss, even for the prospect of a very large gain. 'Safety' in that type of view, is worth more than any potential reward from a gamble.
Yes, this is something I've noticed with most.  Naturally, why would they wish to risk anything on something they don't quite understand.  I know I wouldn't spend money on something that didn't make sense to me or I didn't find a use for.

But as time passes, knowledge of a new technology slowly seeps into the common lexicon, and in turn creating new bull runs.
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