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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24541631 times)
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realr0ach
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May 13, 2019, 03:17:03 AM

the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality

JayJuanGee is sitting here looking like the second coming of Richard Simmons throwing dice in an alleyway.
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JayJuanGee
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May 13, 2019, 03:24:22 AM

So, yeah, what are the odds of $20k in 45 days?  

Right now? Not good.

18 months from now, a blowoff top that takes us from $50K to $150K in 45 days? Maybe 50-50.

DealWithItShades.png

Gosh.  You speak the truth there, and I am trying to figure out how I could assert that you could be wrong, but you are not.

Actually, only a small minority of the world's populations, perhaps less than 50% of the persons who already HODL bitcoin, recognize the upside potential of BTC in 18 months as being so strong... 50/50 are not weak odds, and they same to be about how I am assessing them to be too.... which are damned good, if you think about another 7x to 20x price appreciation from where we are at now.. and the odds are also not bad that such a blow off top could go above your indicated range. 

Could take a decent amount of time for others to realize those underlying probabilities, and the disparate investment opportunity that bitcoin provides, and likely many of the people who will be buying BTC to drive its prices from $50k-ish to $150k-ish do not now realize that they will be contributing to such a BTC price upsurge when such upsurge likely comes in about an 18 month time-frame, as you mentioned... not enough to save JMacAfee from eating his dick, but enough to make a large number of us longer term HODLers much more content, and might cause some of us to turn into BIGGER assholes.... a kind of increased "fuck you" status.
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May 13, 2019, 03:28:51 AM

the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality

JayJuanGee is sitting here looking like the second coming of Richard Simmons throwing dice in an alleyway.

Do you even know how to read?

In other words:


Paashaas
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May 13, 2019, 03:43:28 AM

Bitcoin has been declared dead 355 times, most recently just 8 days ago. Smiley

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/
arcmetal
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May 13, 2019, 04:19:13 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), mindrust (1)

....... there's NOBODY in the general public looking to buy or can afford to buy imaginary timestamps for $7000 nowadays, so who the hell is the greater fool supposed to be? All the greater fools like JayJuanGee and Trollgoossens are already all-in.  ............

Stahp trying to suggest that bitcoin is either a saturated or mature market.  Only about 1% of the whole world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin, so there are plenty of folks who will be ready, willing and able to buy into bitcoin.  Also, many of the people who are 1% owners of bitcoin, are not necessarily "all in" bitcoin, including yours truly.   
I will admit that since late 2014, I had largely established my stake into bitcoin, but I do continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin, too, so accordingly, I will concede that the percentage of my allocation towards bitcoin is likely quite a bit larger than a lot of other people who are "into" bitcoin.   

No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...
I have noticed it takes all kinds to fill this planet and make it go round. 

You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back.  He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin.  Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."

And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then?  And his response was "yes". ...

He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say.  The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone.  There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one.  I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.

It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.
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May 13, 2019, 04:33:43 AM

Not about bitcoin...
micg is in the hodlrest, but I still don't want to give out anything but a vibe on GOT.

The last two episodes counting todays's were the dumbest, least nuanced episodes of the whole show.
I hope that the final would make up for this...disappointed (at the moment).
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May 13, 2019, 04:41:06 AM

Don't quote r0ach. Life is too short.
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May 13, 2019, 04:48:12 AM

Don't quote r0ach. Life is too short.
hehe, this be true and wise.  But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.
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May 13, 2019, 05:05:31 AM

hehe, this be true and wise.  But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.

You can edit embedded quotes. Just Say No, to r0ach.  He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
JayJuanGee
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May 13, 2019, 05:06:33 AM

....... there's NOBODY in the general public looking to buy or can afford to buy imaginary timestamps for $7000 nowadays, so who the hell is the greater fool supposed to be? All the greater fools like JayJuanGee and Trollgoossens are already all-in.  ............

Stahp trying to suggest that bitcoin is either a saturated or mature market.  Only about 1% of the whole world's population has any kind of stake in bitcoin, so there are plenty of folks who will be ready, willing and able to buy into bitcoin.  Also, many of the people who are 1% owners of bitcoin, are not necessarily "all in" bitcoin, including yours truly.   
I will admit that since late 2014, I had largely established my stake into bitcoin, but I do continue to dollar cost average into bitcoin, too, so accordingly, I will concede that the percentage of my allocation towards bitcoin is likely quite a bit larger than a lot of other people who are "into" bitcoin.   

No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...
I have noticed it takes all kinds to fill this planet and make it go round. 

You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back.  He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin.  Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."

And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then?  And his response was "yes". ...

He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say.  The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone.  There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one.  I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.

It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.

Certainly you make fair and decent points, but you see Roach is WO's resident troll, so he is NOT genuinely attempting to engage regarding the actual value of holding some BTC or even hedging with BTC.  So, otherwise your arguments might apply in a case like this, yet you realize also that any normal nocoiner or someone who is merely reluctant to bitcoin until it becomes stable, would not actively be participating in a topic that does not interest him.... So in that regard, truly roach is either a paid shill, pumping his stupid-ass PM talking points and denigrating bitcoin through the process or some kind of degenerate loser troll who merely gets pleasure in posting within a thread that does not positively interest him (only interests him in a negative sense... and maybe he has gotten emotionally attached with some of us over the years of his trolling here?).
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May 13, 2019, 05:15:36 AM

but you see Roach is WO's resident troll, so he is NOT genuinely attempting to engage regarding the actual value of holding some BTC

You're the one that does nothing but spam lies.  Currencies have 0 value whether it's fiat, Bitcoin, or Chuck E Cheese tokens.  All currencies are pump and dump scams.  Physical metals are money and not currencies, but you and your gang of scammers like Trollgoosens flood the forum with lies claiming bitcoin is something besides a designed to centralize, non-fungible currency.  At least people like Wolong are honest about trying to rip people off for profit.  You're so delusional you started believing your own lies.
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May 13, 2019, 05:18:58 AM

but you see Roach is WO's resident troll, so he is NOT genuinely attempting to engage regarding the actual value of holding some BTC

You're the one that does nothing but spam lies.  Currencies have 0 value whether it's fiat, Bitcoin, or Chuck E Cheese tokens.  All currencies are pump and dump scams.  Physical metals are money and not currencies, but you and your gang of scammers like Trollgoosens flood the forum with lies claiming bitcoin is something besides a designed to centralize, non-fungible currency. At least people like Wolong are honest about trying to rip people off for profit.  You're so delusional you started believing your own lies.

If anyone is wondering, I, roachie dee poachie, am devolving into a state of delusion and that is why I speak a language that is known as "gobble-dee-gook."

I FTFY.  You (or your therapist) will thank me later.   Wink Wink     Cheesy
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May 13, 2019, 05:29:14 AM

hehe, this be true and wise.  But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.

You can edit embedded quotes. Just Say No, to r0ach.  He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
Certainly, but what intrigued me most was JayJuanGee's comment:

...
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...

There seem many here willing to post all sorts of explanations for the current bull run, any of which is plausible, but unprovable, except to realize that not all have entered into buying any bitcoin.  In my opinion, this reason is enough to explain every bull run.


nanobtc
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May 13, 2019, 05:30:30 AM

JJG intrigues you? You must be new, here.

Pro Tip: Just read every fourth word. It saves time, and has the same result.
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May 13, 2019, 05:45:58 AM

hehe, this be true and wise.  But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.

You can edit embedded quotes. Just Say No, to r0ach.  He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
Certainly, but what intrigued me most was JayJuanGee's comment:

...
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...

There seem many here willing to post all sorts of explanations for the current bull run, any of which is plausible, but unprovable, except to realize that not all have entered into buying any bitcoin.  In my opinion, this reason is enough to explain every bull run.

Personally, I don't get too animated by any single theory explanations for BTC's price performance.

Surely, BTC development and adoption has increased in the past 7 years, and during that time, and we have had two or three (if you count 2013 as two) bull runs in those past 7 years.  BTC's adoption seems to be coming along slow, in terms of total number of people getting involved, yet it is still becoming much more popular, including way more avenues of liquidity through exchanges, ATMs, merchants (not so much on this count) and otherwise.  One area of development that still seems to be in its early stages is financialization, and surely more financial tools are coming available, and financial institutions are increasingly studying the bitcoin space and proposing various kinds of bitcoin financial products that they are considering to offer, so even though financialization seems like a double edged sword, it also seem like the direction that an accepted asset grows, and bitcoin does seem to be headed in that direction....

What I mean by double edged sword is that there are likely going to be various means to manipulate Bitcoin's price up and down, but it seems that through increasing awareness and legitimacy that will come through increased financialization, and through the robustness of bitcoin's code, bitcoin is going to likely survive through these likely upcoming turmoil periods.... Don't get me wrong, I am not arguing that bitcoin needs financialization, but I am asserting that financialization seems to be an inevitable direction for BTC whether incumbent BTC HODLers want the double edged sword aspects such increasing financialization or not. 
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May 13, 2019, 06:07:07 AM

there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin

Maybe a random idiot will buy some TESLA stock too?  Instead of claiming it has some type of fundamentals - it doesn't, it's designed to centralize and there's no reason for it to exist since the first day sha256 ASICs were created except for very temporary regulatory arbitrage - his 'shtick' is that "maybe a random idiot will buy some and increase the price".  JayJuanGee is the world's least mentally endowed pump and dump scammer ever created.
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May 13, 2019, 06:09:08 AM

hehe, this be true and wise.  But it happen to be embedded within the quote I was replying to, and so, it had some relevance.

You can edit embedded quotes. Just Say No, to r0ach.  He struggles for relevance, quoting helps that.
Certainly, but what intrigued me most was JayJuanGee's comment:

...
No matter how you slice the situation, there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin, whether $7k or even at much higher prices, and therefore bitcoin, as a market, is not close to being either saturated or mature.
...

There seem many here willing to post all sorts of explanations for the current bull run, any of which is plausible, but unprovable, except to realize that not all have entered into buying any bitcoin.  In my opinion, this reason is enough to explain every bull run.

Personally, I don't get too animated by any single theory explanations for BTC's price performance.

Surely, BTC development and adoption has increased in the past 7 years, and during that time, and we have had two or three (if you count 2013 as two) bull runs in those past 7 years.  BTC's adoption seems to be coming along slow, in terms of total number of people getting involved, yet it is still becoming much more popular, including way more avenues of liquidity through exchanges, ATMs, merchants (not so much on this count) and otherwise.  One area of development that still seems to be in its early stages is financialization, and surely more financial tools are coming available, and financial institutions are increasingly studying the bitcoin space and proposing various kinds of bitcoin financial products that they are considering to offer, so even though financialization seems like a double edged sword, it also seem like the direction that an accepted asset grows, and bitcoin does seem to be headed in that direction....

Back in 2011 I could keep up with every new development surrounding bitcoin, but today, I certainly cannot.  That it gets absorbed by all sorts of financial instruments was inevitable, and for the most part a good thing.

What I mean by double edged sword is that there are likely going to be various means to manipulate Bitcoin's price up and down, but it seems that through increasing awareness and legitimacy that will come through increased financialization, and through the robustness of bitcoin's code, bitcoin is going to likely survive through these likely upcoming turmoil periods.... Don't get me wrong, I am not arguing that bitcoin needs financialization, but I am asserting that financialization seems to be an inevitable direction for BTC whether incumbent BTC HODLers want the double edged sword aspects such increasing financialization or not.  
I have also recently noticed this double edged sword of it being absorbed by the institutions.  I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply.  This is a property that has never existed in any other asset, its closest example may be gold.

Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.
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May 13, 2019, 06:23:38 AM

I can see how some have tried to absorb it for the purpose of price manipulation, but eventually those games hit a wall, the wall of its hard limit of supply.  

If you're in the camp that believes Bitcoin wasn't created by the govt as a trojan horse for a cashless society slavery system, then their op to control the price would have obviously been when they launched those CME derivatives.  Since nobody uses them, they would likely shift to plan B and do something like walk into Coinbase, issue a gag order and seize it under "national security" while paying them off with some stipend, then go full blown fractional reserve Gox 2.0.

If you assume bitcoin is not created by the govt as a trojan horse, their goal is to obviously control the price through fraudulent derivatives just like they do in metals.  For their next step, since step one obviously didn't work, they would either do something like take over Coinbase and manipulate there or just try to outlaw them all together.  I don't really see that happening myself since bitcoin is likely a govt invention and they want people to buy these dystopian tracking system tokens instead of metals.
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May 13, 2019, 06:29:12 AM

there are both a lot of people and a lot of money that can still enter into bitcoin

Maybe a random idiot will buy some TESLA stock too?  Instead of claiming it has some type of fundamentals - it doesn't, it's designed to centralize and there's no reason for it to exist since the first day sha256 ASICs were created except for very temporary regulatory arbitrage - his 'shtick' is that "maybe a random idiot will buy some and increase the price".  JayJuanGee is the world's least mentally endowed pump and dump scammer ever created.

Get the fuck out of here with your lame ass attempt at a comparison to TESLA...

Bitcoin is not a fucking stock.. get it into your thick racist skull.

Furthermore, there is no import about whether I want bitcoin or not or whether I attempt to pump bitcoin or not.  I am just one person posting on a random bitcoin thread.  Who the fuck cares what I say, and especially bitcoin does not care what I say.

In other words, I am starting to feel like a broken record, value is going to gravitate into bitcoin because it is the most sound money ever created or found, and that includes your manipulated gold that has paper versions and also an ability to mine more of it.  Bitcoin's supply is fixed.  An interesting concept to have an actual fixed supply of something. 
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May 13, 2019, 06:34:30 AM

[edited out].
Its this limit of supply that works to eventually counter any price manipulation games.

Exactly!!... And, each of us likely know that even though bitcoin has a limited supply and an ability for individuals to immediately demand their private keys, institutions are going to try to manipulate bitcoin, but there are likely going to be some learning involved from individuals to realize that they can keep institutions in check by demanding their private keys.

It will take a while for these matters to play out (game theory or whatever), but one of the powerful aspects of bitcoin remains the power of the people to exercise control over their asset in an immediate way.
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