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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390945 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
El duderino_
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January 17, 2020, 08:19:27 PM

I have a dream, that the next time we cross $9,000, it will be the last time we ever see Vegeta memes.

I like Vegeta memes. But I'm with you on this one. I want moon memes.

Boy, where are you from..... we first need a strong bulked up Vegeta to support our moon base!!!

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January 17, 2020, 08:33:28 PM

Apparently there's 2.1BTC hidden in this picture:



Source Don't forget about me whoever finds it Wink
fillippone
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January 17, 2020, 09:30:16 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), LUCKMCFLY (1)

Another hit from PlanB!

Very interesting. And answering one of the most common question: why Bitcoin is still at Vegeta level if it is going to be worth in the million in a few years?

Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model

Quote

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2019 [1]. The model has been well received by bitcoiners and investors. Many analysts have verified the cointegrated S2F model and confirmed bitcoin price predictions [2][3][4].
The S2F model also received critique. The best steel man argument against the model comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The argument states that the model is based on publicly available information (S2F, bitcoin's supply trajectory) and therefore the analysis and conclusion must be already priced in.
In this article I share my point of view on S2F model and EMH. I analyze arbitrage opportunities, risk & return model and derivatives markets.

JayJuanGee
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January 17, 2020, 09:31:15 PM



New bitwise survey. It's nice to see that less people think it's a bubble or a scam, but at the same time more people want regulation which essentially is kinda against idea of bitcoin, like what the hell...

Source

My biggest problem with that question and the other questions in the theory is trying to understand what the fuck is "cryptocurrencies" - both in the eyes of the surveyors and also in the eyes of the persons answering the survey questions.  Still get some ideas from their answers, but still way the fuck incomplete information because of failures/refusals to make meaningful attempts to clarify what they are asking about, exactly.
Hueristic
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January 17, 2020, 09:32:28 PM

Is someone trying to launder money with ZCash or what?!?
Imagine how disappointed they'll be when they figure that they neither have privacy nor their money anymore lol

Well shit I owe you a merit for this.
LUCKMCFLY
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January 17, 2020, 09:33:56 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), fillippone (1)

Another hit from PlanB!

Very interesting. And answering one of the most common question: why Bitcoin is still at Vegeta level if it is going to be worth in the million in a few years?

Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model

Quote

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2019 [1]. The model has been well received by bitcoiners and investors. Many analysts have verified the cointegrated S2F model and confirmed bitcoin price predictions [2][3][4].
The S2F model also received critique. The best steel man argument against the model comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The argument states that the model is based on publicly available information (S2F, bitcoin's supply trajectory) and therefore the analysis and conclusion must be already priced in.
In this article I share my point of view on S2F model and EMH. I analyze arbitrage opportunities, risk & return model and derivatives markets.

This part is one of the best in my opinion on how the market moves.
Quote
Bitcoin options and futures markets do not expect rising prices at or after next halving. It is possible that markets still overestimate future risks.

Source: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107
A great analysis.
Biodom
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January 17, 2020, 09:36:12 PM
Last edit: January 17, 2020, 09:46:58 PM by Biodom

Another hit from PlanB!

Very interesting. And answering one of the most common question: why Bitcoin is still at Vegeta level if it is going to be worth in the million in a few years?

Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model

Quote

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was published in March 2019 [1]. The model has been well received by bitcoiners and investors. Many analysts have verified the cointegrated S2F model and confirmed bitcoin price predictions [2][3][4].
The S2F model also received critique. The best steel man argument against the model comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The argument states that the model is based on publicly available information (S2F, bitcoin's supply trajectory) and therefore the analysis and conclusion must be already priced in.
In this article I share my point of view on S2F model and EMH. I analyze arbitrage opportunities, risk & return model and derivatives markets.


Are you guys following him on twitter?
I literally was checking his account a couple of min ago and it was not there yet.
Interesting point about mispricing due to high perceived risk.
Steel man argument is the opposite of strawman, but it is the first time I saw this expression.
Hueristic
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January 17, 2020, 09:41:01 PM

Apparently there's 2.1BTC hidden in this picture:



Source Don't forget about me whoever finds it Wink

I saw ETH and XRP and eyes glazed over. fuck that shit.
Biodom
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January 17, 2020, 10:00:07 PM

Apparently there's 2.1BTC hidden in this picture:



Source Don't forget about me whoever finds it Wink

I saw ETH and XRP and eyes glazed over. fuck that shit.

Dude, this is a puzzle (with imaginary Satoshi face) to get 2.1 BTC, who gives what words are there?
JayJuanGee
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January 17, 2020, 10:01:46 PM

I have a dream, that the next time we cross $9,000, it will be the last time we ever see Vegeta memes.

I still expect a flash dip under $9K (which could go as low as $8K but most probably only to 8.5K-8.8K) when we go attack (and fail) $10K for the first time this year. But, if everything goes well, THAT will be the last time.

The more we retest all these levels setting solid higher lows, the better in the long run.

You are surely turning into a bit of an optimist.      Shocked
bitserve
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January 17, 2020, 10:13:40 PM

I have a dream, that the next time we cross $9,000, it will be the last time we ever see Vegeta memes.

I still expect a flash dip under $9K (which could go as low as $8K but most probably only to 8.5K-8.8K) when we go attack (and fail) $10K for the first time this year. But, if everything goes well, THAT will be the last time.

The more we retest all these levels setting solid higher lows, the better in the long run.

You are surely turning into a bit of an optimist.      Shocked

Ok, guilty as charged.

I forgot to say that is my most optimist (yet reasonable) scenario. Ie: In case Bitcoin were straight to test $10K during the next couple of weeks.


P.S.: At least I am not a completely delusional fool like this one: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-will-reach-400000-after-halving-history-dictates/
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 17, 2020, 10:25:07 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Imagine how disappointed they'll be when they figure that they neither have privacy nor their money anymore lol

Well shit I owe you a merit for this.

i gotcha
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January 17, 2020, 10:27:34 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

Food for thought:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5218374.msg53633657#msg53633657
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg53633250#msg53633250

Apparently there's 2.1BTC hidden in this picture:



Source Don't forget about me whoever finds it Wink

First part of the puzzle solved: https://twitter.com/o_lalonde/status/1217931522008850434

The rest of it still goes straight over my head though....
kurious
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January 17, 2020, 10:30:30 PM



Brilliant, but it seems it sailed over most heads here... shame on 'em
JayJuanGee
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January 17, 2020, 10:41:51 PM

Well, I had to cash out an entire bitcoin yesterday for expenses and such. This is why it's going over 9k.

Because the universe rotates around me, and the universe enjoys fucking with me :-)

So moon time! Every time I sell one that is one bitcoin I will never see again. Blah!

First sell yourself on the streets or something, if the juices or completely gone there.... then start selling corns

Anyone who earns an income in bitcoin will have to sell some bitcoin.  That is risk management 101.

Each person needs to maintain balance, and lightfoot has previously described that periodically he receives some income in BTC.
Biodom
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January 17, 2020, 10:52:38 PM



Nice...had to check "codpiece".

Well, I had to cash out an entire bitcoin yesterday for expenses and such. This is why it's going over 9k.

Because the universe rotates around me, and the universe enjoys fucking with me :-)

So moon time! Every time I sell one that is one bitcoin I will never see again. Blah!

First sell yourself on the streets or something, if the juices or completely gone there.... then start selling corns

Anyone who earns an income in bitcoin will have to sell some bitcoin.  That is risk management 101.

Each person needs to maintain balance, and lightfoot has previously described that periodically he receives some income in BTC.


well, some peeps here might want to indulge in some mining activity...it's not that difficult and makes income in BTC, lol.
JayJuanGee
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January 17, 2020, 10:58:22 PM

I was staring at my DCA chart as I always do everyday Grin, I realized, since 2016, I doubled my BTC amount every year.  Cool

I can only double one more time that's if I go all in.  Grin

Don't get caught up on unrealistic pie in the sky goals.

Consider your prudence, and you don't need to double each year in order to be employing the correct tactics.  

In other words, if you start to prioritize meaningless goal posts, you will end up screwing up a system that you have built and figured out to work.

In other words, tweaks to your system should be based on incremental changes rather than throwing darts at walls when you might not be as good of a shooter as you believe yourself to be, then you end up getting fucked up the ass because you accidentally (or should we say recklessly?) poked ur lil selfie in the eye ball.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I probably bought my last fucking dip a week ago.

From now on unless there happens to be a huge ass percentage drop, I'll just keep throwing potatoes (DCA'ing) till it hits my target price.

There is never a straight up, so maybe if you are employing "buy on dip," you are not getting as much BTC, but you still cannot really count on losing dip buying opportunities.

Yeah, I understand that many of us here in WO thread have a kind of bullish, never to return to low prices theory, yet historically, it seems that those kinds of opportunities do still tend to come...

Maybe we could analogize from 2016, and yeah after a certain point, it became really difficult to obtain sub $500 coins.. and surely similar dynamics might exist in 2020.. trying to get sub $10k coins... I understand the dilemma and the urge to front load, and I have no problem with the employment of some front loading based on those kinds of ideas.  I did it myself.  I front loaded a bit in the three digits, but I was still always worried about front loading too much and getting caught in some kind of pickle...

Yeah, of course, I left some money on the table in 2015 and 2016, but I don't have any regrets because I really feel that I had front loaded as much as I had felt comfortable at that time, and I cannot go around kicking myself and say that I should have bought more - because buying more was just NOT prudent when I had already sufficiently thought about the situation and sufficiently frontloaded my BTC investment.  There is only so much that you can do and there is only so much money that you can reasonably get a hold of without putting yourself too much at jeopardy if matters were to go sour.. and my lack of regret even goes to the fact that I could have pulled some money out of my 401k.... it was my money.. but I chose not to do it, and the 401k money performed way worse than BTC.. but I don't care because I had already considered both the UPs and DOWNs and I made my then choices about what was then prudent..  No regrets, here.
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January 17, 2020, 10:58:51 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), Arriemoller (1)


P.S.: At least I am not a completely delusional fool like this one: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-will-reach-400000-after-halving-history-dictates/

That is just absurd.  Obviously we are only going to experience an 11,000% increase this time around peaking at $343,453.
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January 17, 2020, 11:01:42 PM
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Edit:  By the way my sub $9k incremental sell orders just filled, next ones at $9,200-ish.... easy peasy... little by little.. sell, sell, sell as the price goes up, but only a little.  That's the mindless system that always attempts to stay ahead of the price moves... The price comes to your sell/buy orders, you do not go to the price..  It's making money in your sleep (kind of), as long as the underlying asset ultimately goes up..

Mines too. Now putting some buy orders at around $8.5-8.6K for the same amount.

Same as you, this has nothing to do with where I do think the price is going next. Scalping needs no feelings. It only needs some (almost unpredictible) sideways volatility.

Yep.. in these order settings, we are attempting to take advantage of BTC's almost inevitable short-term volatility like unemotional bots in regards to setting our orders.. [...]  

By the way, when i started doing this, at $250-ish [...]

Hey JJG, serious question. Could you give some insights in this obviously well thought through strategy you are having? And have extensively shared numerous times? As well for the potential new people entering because of the recent positive price action.


What percentage if your bitcoin holdings, perhaps calculated into today's fiat value, did you lose because of having your bitcoins on an exchange or hot wallet (exchange hacks, sim swaps, etc)

versus

Your gains applying this strategy?

I lost more than I gained.
Biodom
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January 17, 2020, 11:06:04 PM

I was staring at my DCA chart as I always do everyday Grin, I realized, since 2016, I doubled my BTC amount every year.  Cool

I can only double one more time that's if I go all in.  Grin

Don't get caught up on unrealistic pie in the sky goals.

Consider your prudence, and you don't need to double each year in order to be employing the correct tactics.  

In other words, if you start to prioritize meaningless goal posts, you will end up screwing up a system that you have built and figured out to work.

In other words, tweaks to your system should be based on incremental changes rather than throwing darts at walls when you might not be as good of a shooter as you believe yourself to be, then you end up getting fucked up the ass because you accidentally (or should we say recklessly?) poked ur lil selfie in the eye ball.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I probably bought my last fucking dip a week ago.

From now on unless there happens to be a huge ass percentage drop, I'll just keep throwing potatoes (DCA'ing) till it hits my target price.

There is never a straight up, so maybe if you are employing "buy on dip," you are not getting as much BTC, but you still cannot really count on losing dip buying opportunities.

Yeah, I understand that many of us here in WO thread have a kind of bullish, never to return to low prices theory, yet historically, it seems that those kinds of opportunities do still tend to come...

Maybe we could analogize from 2016, and yeah after a certain point, it became really difficult to obtain sub $500 coins.. and surely similar dynamics might exist in 2020.. trying to get sub $10k coins... I understand the dilemma and the urge to front load, and I have no problem with the employment of some front loading based on those kinds of ideas.  I did it myself.  I front loaded a bit in the three digits, but I was still always worried about front loading too much and getting caught in some kind of pickle...

Yeah, of course, I left some money on the table in 2015 and 2016, but I don't have any regrets because I really feel that I had front loaded as much as I had felt comfortable at that time, and I cannot go around kicking myself and say that I should have bought more - because buying more was just NOT prudent when I had already sufficiently thought about the situation and sufficiently frontloaded my BTC investment.  There is only so much that you can do and there is only so much money that you can reasonably get a hold of without putting yourself too much at jeopardy if matters were to go sour.. and my lack of regret even goes to the fact that I could have pulled some money out of my 401k.... it was my money.. but I chose not to do it, and the 401k money performed way worse than BTC.. but I don't care because I had already considered both the UPs and DOWNs and I made my then choices about what was then prudent..  No regrets, here.

front loading is so 2014-2015ish.
It's difficult to imagine a serious frontloading at almost 9K (vs 200-500 back then).
It is closed to most, but the fiat 1% now, soon to be 0.1%.
That said, i believe that the next 5-6 mo is the last frontloading opportinity of the next few years.
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