Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Icygreen]

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.

What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.

Because it would suit you?  

In two years it will go much higher than $9k.

Perhaps its fiat that will go much lower?  Currently the FED is printing .014% more of the 23 trillion national debt each day ($3.3 Billion 2019 average).  That's serious inflation  
Watching the Debt Clock its about 1 million every 30 seconds.

You don't like dollars?  Name your poison.  Gold?  BTC gonna go up against gold.  Light Sweet Crude?  BTC goin' up.  The price of ladyboys in Bangkok?  BTC will go up.

I was agreeing with you over 'the price' in relation to USD going up.  I don't agree that measuring BTC by any metric we have today is fairly comparable. It's considered a non-correlated asset and we struggle to attribute a value to it because we are using metrics we are familiar with.
My point is that Bitcoin is the stable asset compared with USD.

How much you paying for ladyboys these days? BTC price prefferable  
  

[exstasie]

Morning, all. Latest analysis:

Updated primary count:



I don't like the internal (lower degree) count, but I think the overall wave proportions really support this idea. The deep pullback in Wave 2 and the > 1.618 extension in Wave 3 definitely looks like impulsive behavior to me. This is the general idea:



The 20-day MA doesn't seem to be providing support. I consider bears to be in control until the market breaks back above ~$8,670, the top of that failure candle two days ago. Looking at daily Chande levels and considering the overall structure, I would expect a few more days of consolidation in this general area.

We prefer to hold $8,000+ and ideally at/above the 0.382 to maintain good impulsive channel form. A sustained drop back into that yellow channel will suggest we are actually in a larger correction, in which case I offer xxxx123abcxxxx's alternative:

Are we mostly bulls or bears in here?

[dragonvslinux]

Are we mostly bulls or bears in here?

Short-term bearish, further pull-back required imo. Mid-term neutral, long-term bullish.

I was hoping for a macd fakeout on the Daily, but as of yesterdays close it has confirmed the trend-change from bullish to bearish.



The Weekly macd is still close to a bull-cross that could occur in the coming weeks, which is a longer-term bullish sign:



However the Monthly macd is worryingly showing an increase in selling pressure at current prices, which seems incredibly bearish given that the price is up 15% this month:



I was hoping the Monthly macd would also be a singe bar fakeout as the Daily macd has twice achieved in recent months, but this isn't looking as likely anymore  

I'm aware I'm focussing heavily on the macd at the moment, but given the complete lack of confluence between the Daily/Weekly/Monthly, it appears very useful, as two of these time-frames will need to trump the outlier in order to create confluence. Right now, the Daily has started to line up with the Monthly bearish selling pressure, as opposed to the Daily creating a macd fakeout bear trap in order to line up with the Weekly bullish buying pressure

[El duderino_]

Every minute BULL

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Every minute BULL

I will be angry if we go below $8,000 now because I made a significant buy last night.

I know 1BTC is 1BTC but always nice to get them cheaper.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Sideways 'r' us... currently $8322USD/$10940CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Could be worse, could be better.

That's an adult escort site. Hopefully no one at the work saw that you clicked that in the office, else you could be fired by the boss  

Aaah. The joys of being a wage slave.

I will be angry if we go below $8,000 now because I made a significant buy last night.

Congrats on catching the bottom. 

[LUCKMCFLY]

Another great analysis of PlanB.

After 2012 and 2016 #bitcoin halving there was no death spiral or miner capitulation (of course). Network difficulty / hashrate did 10-100x 2yrs before those halvings, and 10-100x 2yrs after halvings. So far 2020 difficulty path tracks 2016 perfectly.

Source: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1221061038831030272

[DeathAngel]

^^
Perfect, let’s hope we see even close to a similar price % increase as that period. Bring on the halving & the next big rise.

[Elwar]

An update on my excursion into the world of Bitcoin's Omni Layer.

Omni Layer (previously Mastercoin) is a colored coin implementation of the Bitcoin blockchain. They primarily use the OP_RETURN to broadcast extra data of each transaction.

My impression of the project is that they had their hay day back before Ethereum and the whole ICO craze. Since then it has been slow on development with plenty of ideas and promises of great things to come with not much follow through (like all of the ICOs). But it is stable and useful for my purposes. It allows for decentralized exchange of all tokens created using its protocol. There is some lightning implementation but I have not gone down that road yet.

I was able to get the wallet and everything up and running on my server. I started downloading the blockchain the first week of January and I am now about a day or so away from everything being caught up. It has to download the Bitcoin blockchain first, then go through the blockchain and parse the transactions to determine if there is any Omni layer data to process, then put that in the database.

The whole things works almost out of the box. Very limited instructions so I had to delve into the code to figure things out. Setting up SMTP and SSL were the final steps I needed to get it all working.

I'll be speaking at Anarchapulco in a few weeks and Ocean Builders wants people to be able to buy our sea homes easily with bitcoin, even if they only want partial ownership. We pour the concrete for our factory at the local marina this week so after a month or so we begin full scale production.

[dragonvslinux]

Every minute BULL

I will be angry if we go below $8,000 now because I made a significant buy last night.

If buying Bitcoin can make you angry, I recommend not doing it. I been dollar cost averaging since Nov 14th, even buying above $8K, so will be happy if it goes back down below it.
My m₿ p/h at work has crashed significantly in recent weeks, but fortunately it doesn't make me angry. I'm always hoping my m₿ p/h goes up over the coming months, not down.
If Bitcoin goes up, then my money goes up. If Bitcoin goes down, then my m₿ p/h goes up. It's a win win, as long as we don't crash below $5K after the halving 

[JayJuanGee]

Why it would go up please? I don't understand...

Cos it's BTC.

What do you mean? It's something that goes up with no reason? Till which level?

To 9000, obviously.

Because it would suit you? 

In two years it will go much higher than $9k.

two years seems to be a bit of a stretched out scenario...

We are looking at ATH that is quite likely within this calendar year, but could drag out to 15-20 months from here...

If we are still dangling in the $9k arena, even a year from now, I would be quite surprised....even though I understand that almost anything is possible in bitcoinlandia... To look at the bright side of such potential bearishness or dragging out of our current consolidation period, it would just be more time to accumulate MOAR coins, I suppose.... and probably some long time HODLers might move up their BTC price buying threshold.. I mean the point in which they purposefully inject new money into the system.  Most people have a discretionary cashflow, and some HODLers might have decided largely not to inject new money into BTC unless the price is below a certain price point, but if consolidation stays around for an extended time, pretty soon some of that cashflow might start to accumulate and incentivize moving the buying threshold up.. from $6k to $8k or some other movement of such BTC buying threshold.

[efialtis]

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Edit: PMs sent - please get in touch if I forgot you!

[JayJuanGee]

You don't like dollars?  Name your poison.  Gold?  BTC gonna go up against gold.  Light Sweet Crude?  BTC goin' up.  The price of ladyboys in Bangkok?  BTC will go up.

......
How much you paying for ladyboys these days? BTC price prefferable  

I hate to be white-knighting Millionero or any other WO peep for that matter, but I am fairly positive that Millionero was only speaking hypothetically in regards to the ladyboy matter, not from actual personal experience(s). 

Now I am getting embarrassing.

[Globb0]

If opening SMTP may risk getting blacklisted by ISPs?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@APompilano
Want to know a secret that only rich people know?

You aren't going to become wealthy through a salary.

You either need to own something or get your money to earn money for you.

Trading time for money won't get it done.

Learn what rich people do and replicate it.
https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1220856062804447234?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

Morning, all. Latest analysis:

This is the general idea:

Are we mostly bulls or bears in here?

TLDR: seems to be that you are saying "down before up"

Where have I heard that before?



Should we really take that seriously?

How much weight should we be giving to such seemingly scripted prognosticating?    

Is our doom, inevitable?   

[Icygreen]

You don't like dollars?  Name your poison.  Gold?  BTC gonna go up against gold.  Light Sweet Crude?  BTC goin' up.  The price of ladyboys in Bangkok?  BTC will go up.

......
How much you paying for ladyboys these days? BTC price prefferable  

I hate to be white-knighting Millionero or any other WO peep for that matter, but I am fairly positive that Millionero was only speaking hypothetically in regards to the ladyboy matter, not from actual personal experience(s). 

Now I am getting embarrassing.

Hopefully seen as friendly banter. Just having some fun. You knew that right?.... right?

[Cryptotourist]

TLDR: seems to be that you are saying "down before up"

Where have I heard that before?



Should we really take that seriously?

How much weight should we be giving to such seemingly scripted prognosticating?    

Is our doom, inevitable?  

Bravo JJG - your best post ever - it's moments like this one that make me really proud, bravo.

[JayJuanGee]

Every minute BULL

I will be angry if we go below $8,000 now because I made a significant buy last night.

I know 1BTC is 1BTC but always nice to get them cheaper.

Oh shit!!!!

LFC following mindrust too much, and got swayed towards quasi-"all in".... overleveraged in the short-term.    

What u gonna do?  (that's a rhetorical question)

By the way, on a personal level, I had about 5 buy orders that were clustered in the supra $8k arena, and so far only one out of the five of them has filled...... and that one order was filled like around two days ago, already.   So yeah, it can sometimes take a while to figure out whether the DOWN before UP is over or if such DOWN before UP is going to continue for a while longer. 

I don't really care too much about if those additional orders fill or NOT, but anyone who has experience in setting buy and sell orders will sometimes recognize some of the frustration in letting the price come to their order rather than market buying/selling or changing sentiment in regards to "what to do."  So, currently, there is a bit of frustration with myself when I see that I have a bit of a cluster of orders that are pretty damned close to getting filled, but then they have not yet filled... .. yet even with that minor frustration, I don't feel any burning inclination to tweak my short term strategy or to tweak my orders in order to cause them to fill more easily (even if such tweaking would not likely make any kind of meaningful difference overall, it is kind of the principle of the matter for me to attempt to practice what I preach in terms of attempting to employ patience with the whole matter).

So, yeah, even when trying to set BTC buy/sell orders in a kind of emotionally neutral manner, when the BTC price come within a few dollars of filling (and sometimes even within a few cents of filling), but then such orders do NOT fill, there can be a bit of baby-level frustration in that, even though the original intention had been to set the orders in such a way that was meant to be MOSTLY emotional neutral.