Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Last of the V8s]

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tyvm comrade homer

[bitebits]

The 2% tail emission on Monero is too high, meaning it is not a deflationary asset. 

If it is not deflationary, then it underperforms as a store of value.

Tail emission in May 2022, when all 18.4 million Monero are mined, is 0.6 XMR per two minute block.

(0.6 x 30 = 18 XMR/h) x 24h x 365d = 157.680 XMR / year tail emission.
(157.680 / 18.4 million) x 100 = 0.85% inflation the first year. And then declining each year which probably amounts to less then is lost in tragic boating accidents.

Gold nowadays has an inflation (flow) of about 1.6%. Even in the first year of tail emission about two times as high as Monero. Gold has proven itself over a very long period to be a reliable store of value.

Think it is rather short sighted to just say: no hard cap so no store of value. And you have to remember Bitcoin is still an experiment in the grand scheme of things. Little Monero is experimenting as well and pays a small price for a guaranteed miner incentive + flexible block size (=scaling).

I am not going to argue altcoins here, but don’t only listen to the ones yelling the loudest (that is a comment to newbies reading, not you).

[fillippone]

I don't deny you have some scattered facts upon which to start to build such a case. But from what I have seen your evidence, it falls woefully short of being convincing that they are involved in any nefarious activity. Got anything more conclusive?

This is more than enough for me to use more user/privacy respectful exchanges.
I have nothing to gain from this (well, technically, if everyone do coinjoin, also my coinjoins are more secure, but this is a little bit too indirect for the immediate reasoning), I am just advocating user security.
There are not downside not using them, only upsides: hence choice is trivial.
Want to use them anyway? I do disagree, but hey, we are all grown up adults.

[JayJuanGee]

People who have been around longer should have been or should be loaded, but many unfortunate instances happened. Now, if you were around long enough, you know better and if you have any other source of income, then you should be on your way to preparing for a brighter future. Or at the very least, whatever it is they or you are doing should produce more income than you spend on your expenses.

Not everyone learns, or they learn but can't do much about it at the moment.

You'd think someone who "earned" almost all his coins, (and alts) in these forums would be loaded, but it's those people who bought them (or mined them) and HODL who have anything today, because they didn't need to cash it out, spend it or do anything with it.

They're the ones who would be ok even if bitcoin never existed, because they'd most probably be invested in something else that produces great returns compounded over long periods of time.

Seems to me that you are referring to a few important principles that any investor into bitcoin needs to keep in mind, and fuck any ideas about investing into altcoins because those are largely just gambling, unless you happen to play them based on short term information.. but still risky as fuck overall compared with bitcoin.

So the principles that you seem to be suggesting in regards to bitcoin would be 1) don't invest any more than you can afford to lose, 2) live within your means and 3) attempt to build your BTC portfolio over time - without trying to rush it with too many risky practices.

Regarding getting these kinds of returns with any other investment, I don't really buy that.. and again, did I say fuck alt coins?  You cannot be thinking that including altcoins in your strategies is a sound approach, unless they are very damned small portion of your overall holdings.. less than 10%, but I will give the more risk loving up to 20% if you are really monitoring them and playing short term rather than long term with that crap. In other words, what I am trying to say here is that bitcoin has provided risk to reward opportunities that are way the fuck greater and asymmetric than any other bet that could have been made in the 90s and early 2000s... Yeah, sure in retrospect we can see some investments that played out well such as apple and amazon and some others, but those investments into stocks/companies remains a different animal than bitcoin because bitcoin is a paradigm shifting phenomenon that bring regular peeps way the fuck more flexibility and way the fuck more up side potential as long as they exercise prudence with solid and ongoing BTC accumulation strategies that do not attempt to gamble too much with over-leveraging.. so in that regard, you can get rich as fuck with bitcoin (even still by starting out now) and you don't even have to leverage or front load (even though there might be some strategic advantages to some amount of leveraging and front loading if you play the matter with some attempted prudence).

[Searing]

you guys ready for another burn on orbit?

I'm ready

I'm also out of fiat

Damn, we're twins! I resemble the above remark!

[JayJuanGee]

Are the bulls coming?

Don't get much excited. Let us have $10k first 😀

How about we have $10k before we have $11k?

I am going to argue that is the ONLY way to do it.  Anyone want to challenge my quasi-sorcery status prediction?

[xhomerx10]

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tyvm comrade homer

 Pentru nimic.  The pleasure was mine.

[JayJuanGee]

Are the bulls coming?

https://i.hizliresim.com/5NPBjA.jpg

this level currently does have some impact on the way above because it's the 38.2% retracement from the ATH at $19666 (100.0%) down to 2018 AYL at $3122.3 (0.0%). it's the biggest picture if you zoom out and should have also the most importance.


(*) Bitstamp data timeframe 1w

What is the significance of 38.2% (or inversely 61.8%) retracement?  That 38.2% would be $7,500-ish, right?  Unless you are talking about $12,153 as 38.2% retracement from our $19,666 ATH of 3 years ago?

Currently, aren't we just below 50% retracement, referring to our $9,360-ish price?

I am all for considering getting back to ATH prices, but seems a bit further off, or at least we gotta get past a couple of the more local highs that could provide some resistance in the $10k arena, in the $12k arena and then in the $14k arena... I kind of suspect currently that if we get above $14k, then the next resistance would be approximately in the $17,500 arena.... and maybe even a bit below that.. like $17,200-ish... but besides $300, what is the difference of $17,500 and $17,200 amongst speculator wannabes?

[dragonvslinux]

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.



Also, an analyst I follow closely as they do incredible analysis of many different indicators and perspectives, is now calling for a $11,500 target, based on a measured move of a larger cup & handle pattern that has confirmed. Personally I'm not a fan of these patterns, but I do trust this analysts judgement they them claiming it has confirmed:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/K6uXzD2w-Cup-Handle-Confirms-Daily-Golden-Cross-Expected-to-Follow/

And I thought I was bullish by calling for $10K this week 

Either way, it's best not to bet against (short) these parabolic moves in my opinion, it's like trying to cycle in gale force winds ie going against the grain.

[Raja_MBZ]

SEC Tells Telegram Its Crypto Is Worth Less Than Donuts

https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-tells-telegram-its-crypto-is-worth-less-than-donuts

LOL

[xhomerx10]

4 cases of coronavirus now in the UAE.

This is fine.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

via Imgflip Meme Generator

When the dude can’t resist

 From the looks of the pavement below his feet, at least one of us might survive this outbreak should it go full epidemic.

[JayJuanGee]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

First things come out of my mind:

Doing chain analyisis on all the trades you do before funding deposit/ after funds withdrawal. Coinbase: the Neutrino scandal and the #DeleteCoinbase campaign

Okay... from the article: "hypothetical activity". Got any evidence that they are divulging any such data?
Also from the article: "CoinBase marketing manager Christine Sandler said:
“It was important for us to migrate away from our current providers. They were selling client data to outside sources..."
So they were able to move from an external provider who they knew was selling customer data to others, and bring that function in-house, by purchasing an existing vendor if such services, who they can now control. Perhaps stopping such sale of customer data.
Yes, that's provocative. But rather than a net negative for privacy, it could be a net positive. Again, what evidence exists for your speculated nefarious activity?

In case you haven't any fund, they provide you funds to mess with (in the hope you eventually do stupid things like  consolidate them with your big stash) read: Dust Attack, what it is, why it is dangerous and how to prevent falling to it

Yes. Dust attack has been known since years. Evidence Coinbase is misusing these small bonuses? I mean, such could be perfectly explained by a simple enticement to garner new customers. Much as banks used to offer a free toaster for opening an account.

Selling those data to government agencies

Again... evidence?

Inspiring other Bad actors to follow the same vicious path. Read: #deletePaxos

'Inspiring'? OK. I guess. But not (e.g.) Binance, right?

I don't deny you have some scattered facts upon which to start to build such a case. But from what I have seen your evidence, it falls woefully short of being convincing that they are involved in any nefarious activity. Got anything more conclusive?

Ever notice that jbreher is never too slow to defend bad actors in the space?

Wonder why?

Stolfi, is that you?

 

[P_Shep]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

First things come out of my mind:

Doing chain analyisis on all the trades you do before funding deposit/ after funds withdrawal. Coinbase: the Neutrino scandal and the #DeleteCoinbase campaign

Okay... from the article: "hypothetical activity". Got any evidence that they are divulging any such data?
Also from the article: "CoinBase marketing manager Christine Sandler said:
“It was important for us to migrate away from our current providers. They were selling client data to outside sources..."
So they were able to move from an external provider who they knew was selling customer data to others, and bring that function in-house, by purchasing an existing vendor if such services, who they can now control. Perhaps stopping such sale of customer data.
Yes, that's provocative. But rather than a net negative for privacy, it could be a net positive. Again, what evidence exists for your speculated nefarious activity?

In case you haven't any fund, they provide you funds to mess with (in the hope you eventually do stupid things like  consolidate them with your big stash) read: Dust Attack, what it is, why it is dangerous and how to prevent falling to it

Yes. Dust attack has been known since years. Evidence Coinbase is misusing these small bonuses? I mean, such could be perfectly explained by a simple enticement to garner new customers. Much as banks used to offer a free toaster for opening an account.

Selling those data to government agencies

Again... evidence?

Inspiring other Bad actors to follow the same vicious path. Read: #deletePaxos

'Inspiring'? OK. I guess. But not (e.g.) Binance, right?

I don't deny you have some scattered facts upon which to start to build such a case. But from what I have seen your evidence, it falls woefully short of being convincing that they are involved in any nefarious activity. Got anything more conclusive?

Ever notice that jbreher is never too slow to defend bad actors in the space?

Wonder why?

Stolfi, is that you?

 

Yeah.
Wondering why he's taken offence to the point he felt it necessary to defend.

[JayJuanGee]

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.

Preserve your gut within its current status, even if it feels a bit uncomfortable for you, on a personal level...

In other words, take one for the team... we don't want anymore bear calls from you... NONE....

You will thank me later.

 

[mindrust]

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.

Preserve your gut within its current status, even if it feels a bit uncomfortable for you, on a personal level...

In other words, take one for the team... we don't want anymore bear calls from you... NONE....

You will thank me later.

 

Bears are part of the game. I am still not all in.

Can I order a flash crash to $5500 please?

[Dabs]

Seems to me that you are referring to a few important principles that any investor into bitcoin needs to keep in mind,

So the principles that you seem to be suggesting in regards to bitcoin would be 1) don't invest any more than you can afford to lose, 2) live within your means and 3) attempt to build your BTC portfolio over time - without trying to rush it with too many risky practices.

Regarding getting these kinds of returns with any other investment, I don't really buy that.. and again, did I say fuck alt coins?  

I never mentioned altcoins. That would be something else personally. In fact, I do not ever invest into altcoins, I merely get paid in them, so all my altcoins (or most of them) were earned.

The important principles are those that have long been said in the traditional fiat investing world which include what you said and bunch of others, eventually anyone long enough in the space should figure out or learn the hard way.

Stuff about SWR, compounded interest, dollar cost averaging, being consistent ... be that, if you act like you are investing for your retirement like a lot of other people would using low fee index funds or something close to a total stock market fund, VTSAX or BlackRock's equivalent, or even just a basic S&P 500 ... and you treat bitcoin exactly the same way, and keep doing the same thing for the next 20 years, yes, you will get rich as much as you like by the time you need to cash it out, if you never touch it until then.

That's what I was trying to say anyway. But no.. Very few will actually do this even after reading this post. I'll try to do it myself, but I have other problems I have to deal with at the moment, like trying to survive.

[realr0ach]

My little daughter is totally afraid of deadly viruses now. Thanks to the global brainwash broadcasting mafia media. 

Did you tell her the virus was released on purpose in order to try and provide cover for the implosion of global Jewish Ponzi scams?

[exstasie]

Three white soldiers pattern on the daily chart:

[dragonvslinux]

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.

Preserve your gut within its current status, even if it feels a bit uncomfortable for you, on a personal level...

In other words, take one for the team... we don't want anymore bear calls from you... NONE....

You will thank me later.

 

Bears are part of the game. I am still not all in.

Can I order a flash crash to $5500 please?

I think a flash crash to sub $6K is a bit much to ask, maybe better chance of ordering of a slow grind back down to continue to bear trend over the next few months, until the halving with an eventual break of $6K. While looking bullish, we still haven't made a higher high (above $10.5K) or the long-term downtrend from $20K (lined up at $10K), and therefore topping out and breaking key support (probably $8.2K and $7.2K levels) would definitely indicate a continuation of the bear trend (lower highs and lower lows). That said, the chances of sub $6K are becoming increasingly less as time moves on, about $100 a week based on the 200 Week MA (currently at $5266).

Just because price is looking extremely bullish, is above the 200 Day MA, broken out of a bear channel, above the MA ribbons and guppy on the Weekly, and given a hash ribbons buy signal on all time-frames (as well as many other bullish factors)... it still doesn't fully negative the bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows.

[Last of the V8s]

Talking about camels, just looking at all this again, had forgotten this resource https://antilop.cc/sr/ Silk Road Tales and Archives