Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bkbirge]

By the time folks like him come around to believing in bitcoin as a store of value then I'm guessing we'll all be pretty happy we didn't wait for his signal before accumulating.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ray-dalio-calls-for-investment-diversification-but-not-in-bitcoin

But while many believe in the store of value thesis of Bitcoin, its performance so far has not indicated meaningful correlation with global markets. While it does appear to have slightly positive correlation to gold, the indexes are small enough that they can be attributed to coincidence.

[bkbirge]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.

....

In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

[AlcoHoDL]

Today we learned that Apple dropped its plans to end-to-end encrypt users' iCloud data backups.
I've been researching the issue of secure cloud backups recently; here are my recommendations.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1219670250767208451

How to Securely Back Up Data to Cloud Storage
https://blog.lopp.net/how-to-securely-back-up-data-to-cloud-storage/

For all your encryption needs, I highly recommend VeraCrypt. The continuation of the highly successful TrueCrypt project, it's free, open-source, and thoroughly tried and tested. The "open-source" part is especially important, and is considered a requirement for an encryption product that's worth your time and trust, as a closed-source product may have backdoors that no one can detect.

Need to store data on the cloud, but worried about others having access to it or the cloud server getting hacked? Simple! Just create an encrypted VeraCrypt container, put all your sensitive data in there, and then store the container file itself in the cloud. No one can access your files without the container passphrase, which only you will know.

That's not a backup. Seen this too many times, people trusting the cloud, then comes a thunderstorm and that specific cloud where your goodies were is blown away (with or without encryption).  Think decentralization!
I used duplicity with free protonmail accounts to backup some important data offsite (additionally to local backups).

I agree thet Veracrypt looks mature, unlike i.e. encfs based things that shouldn't be trusted with important data as its not good enough for that. But it's a nice overview that VB1001 posted, thanks.

A local folder that syncs with a cloud service does not have this problem. Dropbox for example.

That's still not a backup, the article VB1001 quoted talks about backing up to the cloud, not just having a synch'd copy there.
(I know backing up is for coward pussies but still I beg to differ)

Well, the very definition of backup is that you have some data stored locally, and you perform a backup by copying the data somewhere else, at regular intervals (or in real-time), so that if something happens to the local data, you have the backup version to restore. So, in that sense, you'll always have a local copy, even if the cloud server gets hacked, or loses the data, or gets obliterated by aliens, etc.

The main point I was trying to make, was that strong encryption tools like VeraCrypt can protect you from someone on the cloud side looking/stealing/using your data. To them, they are just a bunch of useless random numbers. The chances of Google or Dropbox losing your data are very remote IMHO, as their data farms are backed up continuously and in a highly robust, professional way, so they can restore a very recent version of the data if need be. OTOH, my daily backups can fuck up much easier by a mistake or h/w failure.

Generally I'm against anything cloud-based, the only reason being the lack of privacy. With tools like VeraCrypt, the privacy issue is resolved, so one can benefit from the positive side of the cloud.

Having said all of the above, I don't even think about putting my cold storage private keys / recovery seed anywhere near a PC or other online electronic device. It is backed up safely in several places, physically far away from each other, and in non-electronic form. But the beauty of the recovery seed is that you only need to do this once (storing in several places). No matter what happens inside your wallet, whatever you deposit/withdraw, etc., the seed is always valid and always stays the same, no need to update it. It's not the same with actual data, where you need to regularly update the backups when you make changes to the data. That's where the cloud comes in, and with tools like VeraCrypt it saves you a whole lot of trouble in maintaining your privacy while enjoying its benefits. It kind of like Bitcoin, but with data.

Edit: ...and I wouldn't go anywhere near an online service like freebitco.in, trusting my coins to someone I don't know for a mere 4% gain... No way!

[vapourminer]

(I know backing up is for coward pussies but still I beg to differ)

i know what an idiot i am. thus, like a squirrel who buries nuts all over the place, i count on at least finding one good backup somewhere.

in all seriousness though the rule of 3s (i think its called) 3 backups on 2 different media, one of which is offsite. and i dont count "the cloud" as any of those.

i do rolling backups so they go back quiet a ways.

[nutildah]

(I know backing up is for coward pussies but still I beg to differ)

i know what an idiot i am. thus, like a squirrel who buries nuts all over the place, i count on at least finding one good backup somewhere.

in all seriousness though the rule of 3s (i think its called) 3 backups on 2 different media, one of which is offsite. and i dont count "the cloud" as any of those.

i do rolling backups so they go back quiet a ways.

Forgive me if I've droned on about it in this thread before, but one time I had a laptop stolen with wallets for anywhere between $15k and $40k worth of coins. This was in 2015. During the peak of the bull run it was closer to $200k.

I did make a backup indeed; however, my backup was on a USB stick contained in the laptop case, which was also stolen.  I can look up my coin addresses in their respective block explorers, and see my balances just sitting there, laughing at me.

I guess the moral of the story is, don't keep your backups all in one place, and yes, the offsite idea is a good one. There's no shame in burying your nuts in different places.

[Paashaas]

Venezuelan Team Working on Bitcoin Mesh Network Based on Offline Radios.

A Venezuelan team is developing Locha, a decentralized mesh network that doesn’t rely on the internet to transact with Bitcoin (BTC). The system, based on radio waves, was born in response to frequent electricity and internet outages in Venezuela.

Locha Mesh is an open-source project led by Randy Brito, a member of the Bitcoin Venezuela organization.

[vapourminer]

i know what an idiot i am. thus, like a squirrel who buries nuts all over the place, i count on at least finding one good backup somewhere.

in all seriousness though the rule of 3s (i think its called) 3 backups on 2 different media, one of which is offsite. and i dont count "the cloud" as any of those.

i do rolling backups so they go back quiet a ways.

Forgive me if I've droned on about it in this thread before, but one time I had a laptop stolen with wallets for anywhere between $15k and $40k worth of coins. This was in 2015. During the peak of the bull run it was closer to $200k.

I did make a backup indeed; however, my backup was on a USB stick contained in the laptop case, which was also stolen.  I can look up my coin addresses in their respective block explorers, and see my balances just sitting there, laughing at me.

I guess the moral of the story is, don't keep your backups all in one place, and yes, the offsite idea is a good one. There's no shame in burying your nuts in different places.

oh man that is The Suck

another thing i do is keep several (at least) old versions of important files offline and dont discard them as you never know if any particular file has become corrupt and backing up that corrupt file replacing  the non corrupt one sucks a lot too.

ive build my latest nas with ECC memory (that scubs daily) and the ZFS filesystem that scubs the filesystem (timing varies on the pool). it also keeps old versions of any changed file for a period of time, again varies on the pool.

the nas is of course backed up regularly and the backups are kept offline. the 3-2-1 rule is no joke. i learned my lesson way back.

i theory this protects against ransomware are well as idiot users like myself.

[AlcoHoDL]

(I know backing up is for coward pussies but still I beg to differ)

i know what an idiot i am. thus, like a squirrel who buries nuts all over the place, i count on at least finding one good backup somewhere.

in all seriousness though the rule of 3s (i think its called) 3 backups on 2 different media, one of which is offsite. and i dont count "the cloud" as any of those.

i do rolling backups so they go back quiet a ways.

Forgive me if I've droned on about it in this thread before, but one time I had a laptop stolen with wallets for anywhere between $15k and $40k worth of coins. This was in 2015. During the peak of the bull run it was closer to $200k.

I did make a backup indeed; however, my backup was on a USB stick contained in the laptop case, which was also stolen.   I can look up my coin addresses in their respective block explorers, and see my balances just sitting there, laughing at me.

I guess the moral of the story is, don't keep your backups all in one place, and yes, the offsite idea is a good one. There's no shame in burying your nuts in different places.

Yeah, man, that must really suck... Watching those addresses for any movement... Seeing the funds are safu, but not accessible. Damn!

This reminds me of the story of a guy in the UK who dumped (as in threw away in the trash) a computer in which there was a hard drive containing around $5M worth of coins. Just a guess on the actual number, can't remember exactly, but it was in the order of millions of dollars IIRC. He went at the huge landfill where they dump the loads of trash from the city, desperately looking for that damned drive. I don't think he ever found it.

tl;dr: Always backup, and always keep your backups in separate physical places from each other and from the source.

Edit: I think this is the story.

[lightfoot]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.

....

In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

Pretty cool concept: Government can just round up the troublemakers with little effort.

[Globb0]

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs

Would you really put all your Bitcoin stash there to earn that 4% and be confident that they will be safu during all of your remaining lifetime?

Guess not.

Also that doesn't mitigate the volatility risk nor the catastrophic event one. You still have all your eggs in the same single asset and just add a great lot of third party risk.

I thought one of the goals of "retiring" was to be able to sleep at night.

Sure no risk in margin trading. Right.

[bkbirge]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.
....
In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

Pretty cool concept: Government can just round up the troublemakers with little effort.

LOL, I know right? Glorious future make happy. I can't wait for the time when our credit rating is affected by our social rating. Or HR managers can search the blockchain for the last time you double parked so they can modify their offer accordingly. This is next level pod people stuff. OTOH, it can dovetail nicely into cultures with strong caste systems, don't want those uppity Ahirs marrying into the Kallars, so there is that. 

[dragonvslinux]

Weekly MACD close to a bull-cross (first time since February 2019, that would confirm a long-term trend change):



Daily MACD losing bearish momentum now heading towards bear-cross (notice the potential for a single candle fakeout 17/12/19 and 24/10/2019):



Monthly MACD bear-crossed (but is now trying to bull-cross again the following month creating potential as well for a "macd fakeout")



Weekly bulls vs Daily bears and exhausted Monthly bears. Still waiting for volatility given the indecision on different time-frames...
Also, don't trust the macd, clearly it can give out "fake" signals

[jojo69]

This whole concept is scary af...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-experts-suggest-using-blockchain-tech-in-social-credit-system

The social credit system establishes a score representative of every citizen’s trustworthiness. The score is largely influenced by artificial intelligence and the processing of data from the millions of CCTV cameras installed in mainland China.

....

In mid-November last year, Andre Szykier, the CTO at Bitcoin ATM operator Blockchain BTM, suggested that cryptocurrency speculation will likely negatively influence one’s social credit rating.

Pretty cool concept: Government can just round up the troublemakers with little effort.

"round up" ??

why bother?  have the AI dispatch an elimination drone algorithmically.  Take those pesky human operators and their silly consciences out of the equation entirely.

[lightfoot]

LOL, I know right? Glorious future make happy. I can't wait for the time when our credit rating is affected by our social rating. Or HR managers can search the blockchain for the last time you double parked so they can modify their offer accordingly. This is next level pod people stuff. OTOH, it can dovetail nicely into cultures with strong caste systems, don't want those uppity Ahirs marrying into the Kallars, so there is that. 

Great point! I didn't even think about linking it into the marriage certification process. It's like breeding wolves into nice obedient dogs.

Hm...

[LUCKMCFLY]

I think Bitcoin is leveling up, more and more adoption ...

Is bitcoin's price rising steadily with an occasional bubble or is it leveling up every 4 years?

Source: https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1220031106986078211

[fillippone]

I have been to a local Bitcoin meet-up this evening.
Host/Valet: Giacomo Zucco
Special Guest: Saifedean Ammous.
I think you know the guy.



Best quote of the night:

“The most subversive thing you can to with bitcoin is saving”

 ❤ï¸�#nohomo

That was great!

Edit: the concept has been told a few times:

"The only crime you should do with Bitcoin is saving and that's the most powerful of the crimes"
@saifedean

https://twitter.com/mir_btc/status/1219341317500821505?s=21

In case you are interested:
here you can find the slides:

The Fiat Standard - Saifedean Ammous

And the video:
https://www.facebook.com/BlockchainEduIT/videos/867427720365144/
(fast forward after Mir and other introductory talks if you don't speak Italian.Saif presentation is in English and starting around 14:00 mark)

[bitserve]

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs

Would you really put all your Bitcoin stash there to earn that 4% and be confident that they will be safu during all of your remaining lifetime?

Guess not.

Also that doesn't mitigate the volatility risk nor the catastrophic event one. You still have all your eggs in the same single asset and just add a great lot of third party risk.

I thought one of the goals of "retiring" was to be able to sleep at night.

Sure no risk in margin trading. Right.

Maybe we are talking about different things. Why would you want to margin trade?

Also, people that margin trade do it because they hope to gain orders of magnitude more than that 4% yearly. Of course most end just losing eventually.

[erre]

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs

I still somewhat trust freebitco.in and i'm an early adopter and user of that site (my referral number is 78, if someone want to subscribe ).
From 2013 I roll the free dice every now and then, and I hope a day I will win the big price. Imho the best faucet around.

But when they started to accept money they became shady, they say they are mining to cover user's profits but a cloud mining operation with 4% fix annual profit for everyone (compounded daily) is even more shady. And during the last year they also started taking bets and all kind of promotions and services.

I won't put my stash there.

[El duderino_]

Only 1k350bucks away from 4-dig.....

Let us crooze right into there

[Dabs]

If you read about the 4% rule (of thumb) ... I think in one link it says that not spending it all is also considered a failure, or being too conservative or safe. I say the more money you keep with you even if you can't spend it yourself (your heirs certainly can), then wouldn't that be better? Maybe for them, not for you if you're dead.

Still, that is why some people have modified their withdrawal rate to less than 4%. Maybe 3.5% or 3%. Some people focus on just dividends and earnings and leave their equity and capital untouched. That's another way of looking at it.

About the only thing common with traditional financial fiat investments are that, plenty of them HODL too. They keep their stuff for decades.