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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367659 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
AlexGR
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January 18, 2020, 01:21:31 PM

Confirmed: Craig Wright doesn’t have keys to $8 billion of Bitcoin
Craig Wright’s lawyer says he didn’t receive the private keys to $8 billion worth of Bitcoin and provides an update on the Dave Kleiman court case.


https://decrypt.co/16998/confirmed-craig-wright-doesnt-have-keys-to-8-billion-of-bitcoin

tl;dr: Craig is royally fucked in about 90 days.

"However, Wright still expects that he will receive the keys at a later date."

Translation: Wright expects to get more pumping profits (BSV) in another pumping round  Grin
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BitcoinGirl.Club
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January 18, 2020, 01:23:56 PM

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $8,924

We need to find a way to stay above $9k
dragonvslinux
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January 18, 2020, 01:31:42 PM

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $8,924

We need to find a way to stay above $9k

On smaller time-frames I see a way we can get back up there, but not so far a way we will be able to stay up there with 200 Day MA acting as resistance (dotted golden line).



Looking forward to some volatility leading up to the weekly close either way  Cool
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January 18, 2020, 01:42:00 PM

Apparently if bitcoin is to repeat the last pump to ath then it should reach around 400k. Besides, it seems like it's about time to start proper pumps up. We're in for a wild ride these two coming years.



This is a chart I can get behind. 400k party sounds a lot better than 100k party.


400k means four parties, yes?
if it goes to 400k I'd have 4 weeks of parties lol
bitserve
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January 18, 2020, 01:48:28 PM
Merited by mindrust (2), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1)

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.
boumalo
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January 18, 2020, 01:52:49 PM

The price is going up from the January 2th 2020 low around 6900 and the consolidation around 8100 usd between the 10th and the 14th of January.

There is resistance around 9000, what and when is the next resistance upwards of 9000 ?
bitserve
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January 18, 2020, 01:55:50 PM

The price is going up from the January 2th 2020 low around 6900 and the consolidation around 8100 usd between the 10th and the 14th of January.

There is resistance around 9000, what and when is the next resistance upwards of 9000 ?

$9.2K, $9.8K... and most probably $10K will also be a psychological barrier that will be crossed several times up and down (not exactly a "resistance", but more like a "turning point").
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January 18, 2020, 01:59:28 PM

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $8,924

We need to find a way to stay above $9k
I think the price isn't pumping over the weekend to not create the gap below us in the futures market. As soon as we start the Monday we should storm through 9k up to 10k
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January 18, 2020, 02:11:25 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.

Maybe not in the coming years, but sooner or later it will because at that price it would have a market cap of gold. If anyone thinks that it will never go to 400k, they are delusional fools.
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January 18, 2020, 02:14:24 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2020, 02:25:52 PM by xhomerx10


https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1218244638710140929

I have never liked anything related to anime, I will be old for this.

 It's not like we wouldn't have been the same excitement using the meme "Over 8000!".  Anyway, I have it on good authority that the actual number was only 1006.

proof:  https://youtu.be/PCHxU7witPA?t=68

bitserve
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January 18, 2020, 02:30:33 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2020, 03:57:48 PM by bitserve

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.

Maybe not in the coming years, but sooner or later it will because at that price it would have a market cap of gold. If anyone thinks that it will never go to 400k, they are delusional fools.

Ok, let's do this. If/when BTC price reaches $400K (not a bogus insta-spike) I will come here to eat my words (NOT my dick) and you and everyone else will be able to ridicule me as much as you want. I will even gladly wear, for a few days, whichever "shame hat" xhomerx has designed for the purpose (btw, we need one, homer!).

Till that moment comes, I will be (modestly) enjoying life since waaaay sooner than that as my planning doesn't depend on such ridiculously high prices.

There's that. Wink
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January 18, 2020, 02:46:56 PM
Merited by infofront (1)

https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/

This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if...

Quote
So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.

This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.

I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.

In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.

As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.

Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.

Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years!

According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years)

$400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024.
bitserve
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January 18, 2020, 03:06:55 PM

Possible, but unlikely. I refuse to SERIOUSLY consider such radically bulltard scenarios as it could lead to poor investment planning.

Only fools said "prepare for the best". Just no.


El duderino_
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January 18, 2020, 03:08:04 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.


Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible
bitserve
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January 18, 2020, 03:24:51 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.


Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink
El duderino_
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January 18, 2020, 03:35:48 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.


Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink

Driving and reading bad habit it seems .... excuse me sir
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January 18, 2020, 03:39:01 PM

This was refreshing. Go, kittens, go. And BTC of course.
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January 18, 2020, 03:39:31 PM

‘Weak Hands Are Out’ — Trader Who Called $20K Bitcoin Top Calls Bottom

Quote
“The weak hands are out; the strong hands own it.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/weak-hands-are-out-trader-who-called-20k-bitcoin-top-calls-bottom
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January 18, 2020, 03:57:17 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.

Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink

I see your point and I agree, except that the current price may be too high for a newcomer to be able to accumulate "enough stake" in the game to achieve financial independence at a much lower price...

Out of curiosity, what amount would you (or other fellow WOs) consider a healthy stash that one should have in order to realistically achieve financial independence? I know that it depends on country of residence, lifestyle, etc., but would love to hear your opinions on this.
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January 18, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
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Interesting discussion guys. I think indeed it takes discipline sticking to your strategy and don't frontload, even when bitcoin has a seemingly continuing upward momentum from its $3k bottom. Somehow over the years I lost being sensible when it comes to Bitcoin, while I am generally cautious buying individual stocks (VTI FTW). I admire being stubborn and sticking to the strategy.

It is a whole hell of a lot of work just to create a strategy, and many mere mortals have lots of difficulties really making an honest attempt to assess each of the relevant factors which bear repeating here:  cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and skills (limitations) and time available to research and tweak holdings/trades.  

Those are not easy factors to figure out, even for ones self, and sometimes it can take years to just figure out the personalize parts like those above factors.

Feeling regret in retrospective to not have frontloaded makes little sense:

I don't know how you get around a "regret" inclination that almost everyone has, even when they have thoroughly thought through their plans and approach and attempted to tailorize their plans and approach to themselves.  Second-guessing is almost inevitable, even for the strongest-minded people - even if they might not want to personally explore those monday morning quarterbacking considerations.


you have a strategy and need to stick to it, perhaps it helps in case you imagine for a moment the bitcoin price went into the other direction? Especially having little 'dry powder' while bitcoin, seemingly inevitably, comes down back to earth is terrible. Bitcoin is on fire sale and you can't buy any.

For sure, that remains part of the forgotten formula when people are feeling regrets.  They see the BTC price go up 50% or 100% or 300%, and then they forget that they had NOT invested so much because they wanted to be prepared for DOWN.  They have a tendency to see ONLY what happened rather than the preparation and insurance aspects regarding why they had decided (earlier) how they had decided.

It might have turned out very well for some, but that does not prove frontloading / going all in is a wise decision.

Personally, I proclaim to have profited quite well from a kind of frontloading.  Of course, my frontloading has not gone to such extremes as "going all in", but I personally feel that there were several times that I purposefully invested quite well beyond my rational thinking about how much I should be investing, as a kind of gamble.  Yeah, that inclination towards frontloading did not feel so good or feel as if it were paying off while the BTC price was going down, but it felt a lot better when the price started to go back up.. (two years later.. or some other seemingly extreme time, later).  

I will give you a specific example:  Through most of 2014, I did not disclose to anyone that I was investing in bitcoin, and I engaged in a kind of mild frontloading of my BTC investment, and throughout the year BTC prices were going down and they seemed to be kind of plateauing in the $600 range, so when BTC prices went into the upper $300s (something like $385 in about October 2014), I pretty much began to tell a lot of people about bitcoin and my tentative theory that the bottom was in, and proclamations like that.  

I was considering putting in a portion of my 401k into BTC (but I ended up rejecting that consideration) and also, I ended up converting two of my index fund investments into bitcoin (which then constituted about an additional 10% injection of value into bitcoin).  I was pretty sure that we were god damned close to the bottom, and yeah we know what happened after that, no?  In December BTC prices dipped below $200 and even had a spike down to $150/$160 and thereafter until October 2015 the BTC price pretty much stayed in the mid $200s, and even dipped below $200 again in October 2015. Those were not times in which too many HODLers were able to retain their confidence in BTC or even to continue to buy.  I had my own issues and reservations, and I continued to frontload "a tiny bit" into bitcoin, which surely did not feel good, and it surely made my stomach feel queazy and I kind of felt like I was going to get fucked if the BTC price continued to go down and I was adding a bit more dollar value to my BTC investment while I was about 50% in the negative and I surely was not splurging beyond bare budget necessities in other matters.  I was NOT exactly eating ramen, but I was living relatively frugal and considering that I was continuing to "frontload" into BTC.

Sure, I had been frontloading the whole 2 years from 2013 through 2016, but my confidence about the frontloading never really started to see the light of day until about May 2016 when the BTC price shot above $500 (of course we had that little burst from $250 to $500 in late November 2015, but that had gone back to bouncing between $350 and $420, so it did not really begin to feel more solid until the May 2016-ish - and even the mid-2016 rise did not feel the best because we got the purported Bitfinex hack in late July/early August 2016 - which drug the BTC prices back to sub $600 prices for a couple of months).

In essence, what I am trying to say, is that even frontloading does not need to be considered as an all or nothing kind of practice.  A person can frontload in a kind of incremental way... a way that leans in a kind of direction without necessarily going all in, but at the same time, in the guy's (or gal's) head, the amount of the investment feels like too much and is quite balanced in an uncomfortable direction.
  

(and thanks JJG for the honest previous response)

I am not trying to hide these kinds of matters from anyone, and of course, I account for various ways that money is lost along the way.  Maybe Lazlo also could say that he got fucked by spending 10k BTC on two pizzas, but he surely does not consider his decision in that way.

Of course, there are risks with being an early adopter and exploring various kinds of ways to exchange coins or to keep coins on exchanges, and sim porting surely caught a lot of BTC HODLers by surprise, including yours truly.  Sims porting is still a strategy used by hackers and remains quite effective.  Hackers are also learning new and innovative ways to hack, so being your own bank is a fuck of a difficult thing to attempt to practice without getting robbed.  Of course, the more that you experiment with a variety of tools, the  more that you might learn, but sometimes you also might inadvertently open yourself up to one or more attack vectors.  

At least, I feel that I did not get fucked by using some of the shady altcoin exchanges because I hardly dabbled in altcoins, so a lot of people (maybe more) got fucked because they experimented with various altcoins, but yeah, I did give BTC-e (that's and exchange) that transitioned into WEX too much benefit of the doubt by continuing to use their exchange/services while they were continuing to be attacked by the US Government.  In retrospect, I probably should not have considered them to be able to prevail in the good fight, whether it was trying to continue to operate in a way that evaded getting shut down or they were not secretly planning an exit scam.  In the end, coins were lost.. and I had opportunities to remove a decent amount of those coins, and I had even done it at one point to see if they would let me, and after they let me withdraw the vast majority of my coins, I ended up, through several months, putting back more than the amount of coins that I had initially withdrawn... which seems really stupid in hindsight... and as if I had not spent enough time really considering the amount of risk that I was putting on that part of my BTC holdings... which ended up going poof (even though there are some threads attempting to figure out if there are ways that people can get their coins back or a portion of their coins back, the odds seem to be quite on the low end, currently.. maybe less than the dumber dumber odds - eg. "there's a chance.")
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