Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Just yesterday, my daughter asked me what happened to Haiku Sundays.  She has yet to reach her teens and already she's accusing us WO members of having a short attention spans.  I told her were just extremely focused on Bitcoin; she rolled her eyes.

~snip

Nice to see your daughter reading WO. Does she have a BTC stash?

 After seeing the amount of time I spend on Bitcoin-related matters, she's developed an bit of an aversion to it.  She'll come around

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@APompilano
The stock market is closed today.

The banks are closed today.

But Bitcoin never takes days off.

https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1219267772670267396?s=21

[fillippone]

Bitcoin Price Matches Stock-to-Flow Forecast as $100K Halving Nears

Bitcoin (BTC) now almost perfectly aligns with the historically accurate price chart, which has charted its growth from pennies to digital gold.

According to data from Digitalik, a resource that monitors Bitcoin's position relative to the Stock-to-Flow model, as of Jan. 20, BTC/USD is exactly where it should be.

$8.6K Bitcoin sticks rigidly to forecasts

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-matches-stock-to-flow-forecast-as-100k-halving-nears

This is pure coincidence.
Stock to flow model has never been meant to be used like this.

So, good to write a nice 200 word article, but not for trading.

[VB1001]

Yes, the price could be located 1000 above or 1000 below, but the trend follows the graph and at this moment it coincides.

[JayJuanGee]

@mindrust @bitserve

Its always very difficult how much a person should net worth need to be living whit out worries....  Like parts of the world, metropolitan cities, cheap countries or what ever

Here on how would it be for a poker player, interesting discussion on how much would a poker player need for net income a year to be living and playing the game as a profession....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EO4ZNsTOpRE&t=1765s

On who's side would you chose?? Staples or Polk?

They also talk many points you both have said ....  

The whole video is about 1 hour 20 minutes, and a bit more than the first half seems to be batting around ideas regarding how much you need to make in order to be sustainable in a poker profession, and also to be considered a poker professional.

I agree that some of the discussion points are similar, but I think that generally, you do not need as much money to retire (or to say "fuck you") in the event that you are also NOT involved in having an activity (such as poker playing).  So if your income requires you to continue to engage in some kind of activity, you are going to have additional considerations regarding sustaining that activity and your overhead costs in respects to both money and/or time necessary to spend on that activity.

With an income that comes from building up to a certain level of assets (in this case referring to the number of bitcoins accumulated to be sustainable), the ONLY real activity that should be required is figuring out how to manage your asset in terms of storing, transporting, converting and accounting... which might also involve some decision-making regarding timing of cashing out, in the event that you do not figure out some kind of blind reverse dollar cost averaging approach - which could also work in some circumstances - presuming that you are using the money/bitcoins on a periodic basis to pay for some expenses and/or to convert into dollars in order to pay for various expenses that cannot be easily paid through bitcoin.

I think that each of them make very good points in terms of attempting to account for expenses in which might come about, even though  some of their back and forth might have devolved into a kind of a definitional concern about what constitutes a professional poker player, which I tended towards agreeing more with Polk regarding that in order to call yourself a "professional" anything, you should be attempting to sustain yourself through the income of that thing that you are proclaiming "professional" status.

[Biodom]

My advantage is that health is dirt cheap here. Doctors are literally working for free. I better get a 2nd passport but still keep my original in case I have a serious health problem.

I do also have a GREAT and almost FREE health care here. In Spain $1-$2 million would probably be the equivalent of that $5million for US. Again, depends on many factors.

And yes, one could go with a lower figure if he already has a home, retirement pension, additional income, less years to live, very frugal lifestyle, etc etc...

But the geographical factor is *EXTREMELY* important.

Fortunately I plan to always live here. Not just because of "cost of living" but QUALITY of living... and WEATHER! *Most* of the world (including many parts of my damn country!) is too fucking cold for my taste.

Now you mentioned Spain, I was actually considering of buying 2 x 500k€ flats in Barcelona and AirBnb the fuck out of them.  

Work while having a vacation. Sound like a brilliant idea.

Not the best of the ideas. Touristic apartments are having a regulation tightening specially in Barcelona. Risky business I would say. You might be earning like a boss this year and the next one be out of the market because of some regulation that forbids you to rent it. In fact that is ALREADY happening.

Also Barcelona (and Madrid) and among the most expensive cities to live in Spain. Higher salaries yeah, but if you are not gonna work there you will just "enjoy" the higher cost of living. Still, WAY lower than US, of course.

About renting... currently the best investment are more "modest" 2-3 room apartments valued from 50 (reform usually needed) to 250K (more premium zones) € that you can rent for 5-10% that. Long term, so hassle free.
Or lousy apartments with many rooms near universities that you can rent to students.

It's a job in itself to take care of your "business" and properties but it's a reasonably safe investment with a good return if you know what you are doing.

Congrats for ranking up, @bitserve!
Can someone living in Barcelona or Madrid afford the season tickets?
That's the question,

[VB1001]

Adam Back on Satoshi Emails, Privacy Concerns and Bitcoin's Early Days

Bitcoin software

“I didn't help to create Bitcoin, I didn't program anything nor participate in any programming task. Around the time the software came out, Satoshi sent it to me, but I didn't help him with that.

“Hal Finney could have reviewed the early Bitcoin code. I have never met Hal in person, but I really liked his inventiveness and enjoyed discussing topics on the cypherpunks list or in email with him. If ‘cypherpunks write code,’ Hal was a code writer, for sure.

“There has been some speculation about who may have helped Satoshi review the Bitcoin code prior to release because of the email that he sent to the list in November 2018. But it seems that Satoshi programmed Bitcoin first before writing the paper and probably he, himself, made several revisions to the code, and later others — like Hal, for example — may have helped review comments or bug reports or doing small bug fixes, just as when you write text and ask someone to review the grammar.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/adam-back-on-satoshi-emails-privacy-concerns-and-bitcoins-early-days

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $8,652

[Biodom]

I am not exactly saying you need $5 Million to live in the US.

$5Million is my *UP TO* / most conservative reasonable figure for living with a NICE lifestyle in the US. It includes the following factors:

If $5million is your goal, then you need

BTC price                                           BTC quantity

$5k - (anticipated lowest, currently) = 1,000 BTC

$8,600 - (today's price, while typing) =  581.4 BTC

$10k - (reasonable extreme bottom price in 2 years) = 500 BTC

$25k - (reasonable extreme bottom price in 5 years) =200 BTC

$100k - (reasonable extreme top price within 2 years) = 50 BTC

$250k - (reasonable extreme top price in 5 years) = 20 BTC

I personally believe that $2million is decently enough because that gives you $6,666 / mo of passive income.  We should be considering average USA locations rather than the extremes of NYC or SF... .. of course, the higher the cost of living of your preferred location, the more that you need.

By the way, we should also know that BTC does not need to be your exclusive source of income or assets in order to still serve as "fuck you" money and also to be calculated while considering the balancing of other assets and possible income that you might have from other sources that would not necessarily interfere with your ability to claim to have reached a kind of "fuck you" status

I agree with a notion that 2mil is still probably OK in most of US (not in NY, SF, San Diego, San Jose and several more), but $5 mil is solid as a "FU money" (updated to $5mil from $2.5 mil) described here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGC9FY65HBo

haiku motif that I stole from you know who:

Yesterday, corn was
such an easy game to play..
oh oh...yesterday

[gentlemand]

I agree with a notion that 2mil is still probably OK in most of US (not in NY, SF, San Diego, San Jose and several more), but $5 mil is solid as a "FU money" (updated to $5mil from $2.5 mil) described here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGC9FY65HBo

50 is fuck you money. If you have 3-4-5 decades left then 5 million will provide a reasonable amount above the average income plus a few toys and a decent house if you want it to last the rest of your days. No way could you be having sex with Lambos every night unless you want the classic lottery win outcome of winding up penniless less than 5 years down the line.

And if you do nothing about inflation you'll starve to death on 5 million too. What buys a holiday now might not buy lunch by the time you're ready to croak. Luckily there's this Bitcoin thing that might do OK as long you hang on to some.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, that's exactly the problem. The grace period makes it difficult to really know if I a post has been edited right after being posted.

It seems no one really knows how to detect it.

as soon as the person posts here have archive.org capture it? and use the archive shot as proof of unaltered
post?

EDIT: meh could just send several i guess, and link the one they want.

Require the stamping on a blockchain...

BSV anyone?  hahahahaha along with the weather and earthquake data


P.s... never mind me, I don't even know what is a blockchain... I just heard of it happening, out there.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Nice..

Bitcoin Energy value just hit an all time high.

The network is stronger, and more valuable, than ever before.

Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1219196321892052992

[Biodom]

Nice..

Bitcoin Energy value just hit an all time high.

The network is stronger, and more valuable, than ever before.

Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1219196321892052992

Network is stronger because of peeps like vapourminer, Searing, etc perhaps still buying and running those incredibly loud machines.
Personally, I feel that people might think of contributing by running a regular node, mining and/or running a LN node.
I love speculation, don't take me wrong, but we need to fight (still) for decentralization.

[rdbase]

@servebit, so you are a Leo fan.... that’s makes two of us ....  

Not so much... to be brutally honest. I have always thought he was a bit too much baby-faced (specially in the past, ie Titanic) and skinny to be a man, as if he had been an ill born child or something.

But I had to chose between that... or this:





... and I think I choose wisely.

Better to be a pissed off crazy cowboy than a somali pirate.

Congrats to your next step into the WO legendary sphere!

[jbreher]

the new BSv directive is to pivot and try to separate BSv from CSW, shills are out in force trying to push this.

Where do you get this tripe?

[JayJuanGee]

If $5million is your goal, then you need
BTC price                                           BTC quantity

$5k - (anticipated lowest, currently) = 1,000 BTC
$8,600 - (today's price, while typing) =  581.4 BTC
$10k - (reasonable extreme bottom price in 2 years) = 500 BTC
$25k - (reasonable extreme bottom price in 5 years) =200 BTC
$100k - (reasonable extreme top price within 2 years) = 50 BTC
$250k - (reasonable extreme top price in 5 years) = 20 BTC

I personally believe that $2million is decently enough because that gives you $6,666 / mo of passive income.

Always good to see numbers like this. $5 mil is a good goal to have, and the passive income from that would put you in the wealthy status in the USA.

But of course as people age these goals need to be updated, I know a lot of folks here are younger but if you hit a medical emergency or some other such family emergency that requires you to dip into your capital you can be wiped out.

So personally I think JJG's $2 mil figure is good but I'd want a lot of padding to cover those possible (inevitable) times, therefore I'd also peg $5 mil as a decent benchmark for this. Though everyone would be different here I guess.

Personally, I think that there tends to be a lot of posting of high and falutin numbers that just seem way too pie in the sky that might cause failure and refusal to pull the trigger by letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Of course we have to adequately account for changes in cost of living and things like that, but really by the time someone actually pulls the fuck you trigger, s/he should already have a decent idea regarding his/her previous lifestyle and to be able to continue to live within that lifestyle. 

There can be several factors that cause someone to require less in retirement/"fuck you" status than while being in some kind of "job."  1) Some of the expenses of the "job" as mentioned in my above post, but also, 2) just the fact that you might not necessarily feel that you need to continue to stack value and put that value into your retirement/"fuck you" fund because you have already reached the aspired passive income level towards which you had been aiming.

Regarding the second point.  I recall so many years of taking at least 10% or more of my income and putting it towards various investments, and after a while that fund starts to be able to sustain itself in some kinds of ways.  By the time, you get to retirement/"fuck you" status, you should have already been weaning yourself from having to input additional value into that fund.  Of course, you could have a passive income that is 10% or higher than the amount that you need in order that you would just continue to be putting value into the fund at about a rate of 10% which would hypothetically be consistent with your past investments habits/practices.

Of course, in the end, the factors will need to be weighed including known expenses and a bit of the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, and sure there are going to be unknown unknowns that go way the fuck beyond your preparations, but if you have seriously put thought into the matter and adequately prepared, the outrageous unknown unknowns would have been such unlikely events anyhow, and we should not be planning our lives around events that are so damned unlikely.. like Armageddon or whatever.. yeah, Armageddon has about a 1% chance of happening, so don't fuck up your whole life and your ability to retire because you put way the fuck disproportionate preparation into that... like 20% or even 50% like some people seem to be inclined in those kinds of ways to prepare for holy shit not going to happen events - and I am NOT sure if that is just a means to talk themselves out of actually pulling the fuck you lever when they really should (but yeah, ultimately their discretion, and the above remain just factors to consider rather than trying to tell anyone what to do with their ultimate conclusions regarding what is important to them).

[jbreher]

This would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-suggests-crypto-exchanges-are-safer-than-keeping-ones-keys

“Many hardcore crypto [organizations] advocate storing your own keys. But the truth is, today most people are not able to secure a key even from themselves (losing it). A trusted centralized exchange is #SAFUer for most people. The numbers speak for themselves. Need to work on wallets.”

Hmm. CZ sez put your money in his trust. Cui Bono?

[bkbirge]

yeah, Armageddon has about a 1% chance of happening, so don't fuck up your whole life and your ability to retire because you put way the fuck disproportionate preparation into that... like 20% or even 50% like some people seem to be inclined in those kinds of ways to prepare for holy shit not going to happen events - and I am NOT sure if that is just a means to talk themselves out of actually pulling the fuck you lever when they really should (but yeah, ultimately their discretion, and the above remain just factors to consider rather than trying to tell anyone what to do with their ultimate conclusions regarding what is important to them).

I don't really disagree with any of what you said, including the unquoted parts. But having seen the medical issues destroy people's finances more than once, in my personal list of things it's on my list of "it's comin' down the pike" rather than "small chance Armageddon scenario", so as you point out each person has that different list of factors they consider at various priorities.

I totally get that some might see the large numbers and say "fuck it" instead of saving now, hopefully few to none on here, but I just consider it a journey. If I end up there great, if not, well I tried and will continually evaluate my options with regard to whatever curve balls life is throwing at me or likely to throw at me at the time.

[bkbirge]

This would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-suggests-crypto-exchanges-are-safer-than-keeping-ones-keys

“Many hardcore crypto [organizations] advocate storing your own keys. But the truth is, today most people are not able to secure a key even from themselves (losing it). A trusted centralized exchange is #SAFUer for most people. The numbers speak for themselves. Need to work on wallets.”

Hmm. CZ sez put your money in his trust. Cui Bono?

Yep, sure reads sort of self serving on his part.

[efialtis]

Good evening guys,

enjoying some greek wine and observing $8660... You guys with me?!