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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26366384 times)
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January 18, 2020, 05:49:59 PM

Possible, but unlikely. I refuse to SERIOUSLY consider such radically bulltard scenarios as it could lead to poor investment planning.

Only fools said "prepare for the best". Just no.




Totally agree; I think.

Seems that you hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.  That is one of the secrets of making sure that you are not creating goals and expectations that are not realistic and/or setting yourself up for disappointment.. but at the same time, in bitcoin, your hopes for $400k should not go without any preparation.. just that $400k scenario is not the main plan, but instead the "prepared just in case plan".. the hopium that has some roots..

In other words, you are not going to find me cashing out at $100k or $200k or even $400k merely because I believe that those amounts are all a bit pie in the sky.. like bitserve suggested, don't need those amounts to be greatly richie... ...  

In other words (am I running out of words, yet.. Oh, yeah, I almost forgot, I am a badly programmed bot, so I tend to repeat my lil selfie a lot) Wink, if the better scenarios end up happening, you are still in profits.  

Here's the example:  you can hope for the best by having skin in BTC with the outrageous UP scenarios, so let's say that you prepare for $17k, or $35k, or $70k, but $400k ends up happening, you still have some stake in BTC in order to continue to cash out all the way up...  but you also have to cash some reasonable amounts out along the way in case only $17k or $35k, or $70k, and some other lower than $400k amount ends up playing out.  

Yes.

That's the plan.
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January 18, 2020, 06:12:01 PM

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January 18, 2020, 06:15:29 PM


 McDonalds in USA is $1.49 for a large coffee.  It's not bad either!  Where I am, they will have a special for about a month out of the year where any size coffee is a buck.
Tim Hortons coffee is $1.79 for a large but it's really an extra large because they dont have a small anymore.  Long story.
 
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January 18, 2020, 06:16:24 PM

Damn.  Heading out in the storm for a coffee now.
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January 18, 2020, 06:31:46 PM
Merited by STT (1)

Which direction Bitcoin will go?



Silver vs Bitcoin  Grin

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January 18, 2020, 07:05:28 PM
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https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/

This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if...

Quote
So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.

This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.

I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.

In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.

As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.

Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.

Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years!

According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years)

$400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024.

Actually, eighty something %% decline this time left me scratching my head as well.
I fully expected that the decline would be less (60-70%) in the current cycle, yet we still went like a yo-yo.
Actually, it was a few percentages less than prior, but only a few.
94% ($32 to $2) first cycle, 86% second cycle (1160 to $160), 84% this cycle (19870 to 3100).
You can see that draw-dawn got slightly lower, not by much.
Hence lies the problem. If we keep popping up lower gains (in %) in each cycle (320000% to 57900% to 12400% to, say, 2655% in the upcoming), but always declining in the % of gains, but keeping draw-dawn high at or above 80%, then, inevitably, and quite soon, we would have a reverse cycle where we increase less than subsequent drop and that would be a devastating picture.
BTW, 2655% increase (keeping with lower increase trend) in the upcoming is projecting to $82K.

TL;DR So far, each cycle the drop is above 80% and changing very slowly, but gains are declining more rapidly (in %) each cycle, suggesting that at some point relatively soon we would have a down cycle (in the next one or two).

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results. There's S2F, and other power law based models, various exponential models, basic TA models like yours and the one below, etc.

I'm leaning toward the S2F power law corridor, which would put us at $100K+ late next year. I intuitively feel this is too high, and the model is too aggressive. However, I've seen various models converging around $100K at the end of next year. Perhaps this will be the final bull market for bitcoin which results in 3,000%+ returns from the bottom. As you noted, the 80%+ drops have been continuing, so perhaps the huge volatility, while being a bit muted on the upside, will continue for at least one more cycle. The last 80% drop could've foreshadowed another massive bubble.

That reminds me, I just saw this posted on twitter yesterday:

Quote
@Josh_Rager
$BTC Unpopular Opinion:

The next Bitcoin peak high will not be as high as most people think

Lots of analysis out there point from $100k to $300k to $1M

Simple rate of return will show you bottom to peak return reduces by around 20% each cycle

IMO, next high hits $75k to $85k



https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1218265268243304449
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January 18, 2020, 07:15:42 PM


My beloved Tulsi's campaign has fizzled out for the most part but many Presidents had to run multiple times to win.

If by some miracle she did win we could hold the 100k party with a full Secret Service detail. I would have her make the NSA scrub all data about our pasts from the internet for those who wanted it. Then she would give all US citizens who attended the party secret IRS lifetime tax exemptions for national security reasons and also full lifetime diplomatic immunity. Non US citizens would be offered full citizenship and IRS lifetime exemptions if they wanted. We could then form a government funded "Think Tank" and just meet each year to have lavish parties at the governments expense while we drafted recommendations for Madame President on how to proceed with monetary policy and a list of all Bitcoiners to be fully pardoned.



Right...I want to be the secretary of education, though since..wait, I need to focus my eyes.
https://youtu.be/OoZ1-xPbNHg?t=19

President's role is a tossup between The dude, Bob and V8 (mysterious and vague).
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January 18, 2020, 07:20:17 PM
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I dont understand what fight bears are fighting? We will pass $9k so why not just let it happen?
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January 18, 2020, 07:23:02 PM

I dont understand what fight bears are fighting? We will pass $9k so why not just let it happen?

Because up-and-down-and-up-and-down make traders rich?
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January 18, 2020, 07:24:40 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.


Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink

#Technicality:   You did use the word(s) "won't," which I have bolded above, which essentially means something quite similar to "never," but who gives any shits?  

We don't need to get caught in the technicalities of your exact wording, because it does not matter much.

The overall essence of what you said remains the fact that some people seem to be overly relying upon super-fantastic BTC returns in a short period of time, and that is just a dangerous mindset and a recipe for achieving a RECKT status.  

Each person can do what s/he wants in terms of mindset, but each person also deserve to be proclaimed as "delusional fools," when they are not adequately couching and qualifying their views about the road to $400k, to the extent such a road might exist, even if such proclamations of "delusional fool" status are not necessarily literal or even necessarily personal attacks.  

Points are sometimes better relayed with a bit of potentially argumentative (combative perhaps?) emphases.  
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January 18, 2020, 07:29:16 PM

This was refreshing. Go, kittens, go. And BTC of course.

I have a great idea.

How about "we" make digitally scarce bitcoin kittens, that would be an innovative (and non-scammy) idea, right?  We could make them WO thread exclusive, with hats.   Wink  xhomerx10, are you in?

Oh wait?

 Embarrassed
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January 18, 2020, 07:34:19 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2020, 07:50:34 PM by Biodom

heck, we can do better...a WO wonderful hatcoin (WOW or WOH).

The number of coins is limited to xhomerix -issued (he is the treasurer).
Should be no more than 100-150 so far, a few more later. This is a strict one hat-one token situation (collectible).
Or, maybe one hat gives you 10-100 coins so it is somewhat more liquid, so you can give your heroes a coin or two.
Could be a sidechain if we don't want ERC-something.
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January 18, 2020, 07:59:21 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), mindrust (1)

It would be great for the bullish trend to spread.

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Previous weekly resistance @$9555 - Bring it home $btc.


Twiter: https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1218556125366444032

Quote
If FlibFlib’s analysis does prove to be valid and Bitcoin pushes towards $9,500, it could mean that its recent uptrend will extend significantly further.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/18/bitcoin-on-the-cusp-of-a-massive-rally-as-analysts-closely-watch-monthly-close/
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January 18, 2020, 08:04:45 PM

https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/

This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if...

Quote
So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.

This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.

I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.

In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.

As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.

Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.

Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years!

According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years)

$400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024.

Actually, eighty something %% decline this time left me scratching my head as well.
I fully expected that the decline would be less (60-70%) in the current cycle, yet we still went like a yo-yo.
Actually, it was a few percentages less than prior, but only a few.
94% ($32 to $2) first cycle, 86% second cycle (1160 to $160), 84% this cycle (19870 to 3100).
You can see that draw-dawn got slightly lower, not by much.
Hence lies the problem. If we keep popping up lower gains (in %) in each cycle (320000% to 57900% to 12400% to, say, 2655% in the upcoming), but always declining in the % of gains, but keeping draw-dawn high at or above 80%, then, inevitably, and quite soon, we would have a reverse cycle where we increase less than subsequent drop and that would be a devastating picture.
BTW, 2655% increase (keeping with lower increase trend) in the upcoming is projecting to $82K.

TL;DR So far, each cycle the drop is above 80% and changing very slowly, but gains are declining more rapidly (in %) each cycle, suggesting that at some point relatively soon we would have a down cycle (in the next one or two).

Personally, I've been noticing the estimates for the bubble tops decreasing. I recall in 2018, some popular tradingview and twitter guys were claiming we were just taking a breather on the way up to $400K. Now there seems to be a prevailing sentiment that we'll top out <=$100K on the next bubble. Who knows? There are so many different prediction models that are all supported by past data, but give wildly different future results. There's S2F, and other power law based models, various exponential models, basic TA models like yours and the one below, etc.

I'm leaning toward the S2F power law corridor, which would put us at $100K+ late next year. I intuitively feel this is too high, and the model is too aggressive. However, I've seen various models converging around $100K at the end of next year. Perhaps this will be the final bull market for bitcoin which results in 3,000%+ returns from the bottom. As you noted, the 80%+ drops have been continuing, so perhaps the huge volatility, while being a bit muted on the upside, will continue for at least one more cycle. The last 80% drop could've foreshadowed another massive bubble.

That reminds me, I just saw this posted on twitter yesterday:

Quote
@Josh_Rager
$BTC Unpopular Opinion:

The next Bitcoin peak high will not be as high as most people think

Lots of analysis out there point from $100k to $300k to $1M

Simple rate of return will show you bottom to peak return reduces by around 20% each cycle

IMO, next high hits $75k to $85k



https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1218265268243304449

Once we get going make sure you reference the MRV-Z and Puell multiple to assess the top  Wink
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January 18, 2020, 08:08:15 PM


Once we get going make sure you reference the MRV-Z and Puell multiple to assess the top  Wink

Because, you know, we will be the only ones doing that, so it will work for sure.
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January 18, 2020, 08:22:54 PM

[...]

Out of curiosity, what amount would you (or other fellow WOs) consider a healthy stash that one should have in order to realistically achieve financial independence? I know that it depends on country of residence, lifestyle, etc., but would love to hear your opinions on this.

Well, as you have correctly said, it depends on many factors so first you would need to think in FIAT terms (which is how most mundane things are priced) and establish a goal.

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

ANyway, as I said, let's use the $1 million figure. So then, if you have 10 BTC, you would need a solid $100K price to reach that goal. Or just less than $50K if you have the "classic" 21BTC.

Most people with a three digit amount of BTC, we could consider they have already almost made it. Two digits... maybe soon, if we get lucky in the next few years.

Everyone needs to make their own numbers. And also remember that there is no guarantee of anything.

Of course that is if someone decides to cash out everything (or most) when the price target is reached. Which is not what I would suggest to do.

It would be much more reasonable, yet risky, to just keep cashing out as needed, even if you already reached your "goal". More so if you expect Bitcoin will keep rising during the next years or even decades.

Also, who said someone that just arrives right now to Bitcoin with barely any savings could easily just come and retire by investing what he can? That's not how the world (or nothing) works.

I understand the "retire" and "financial independence" point... but no, no one has any guarantee of that. And the only ones that have been in that position thanks Bitcoin it is either because:

1- They were extremely lucky in their entry point and/or decisions
2- They arrived later but they took the risk of investing a sizeable amount of money.
3- They hodled for MANY years. (ie. I am now on my 7 year some others way longer).

Bitcoin was never intended to be a get rich quick scheme, even if it resulted like that in some cases. For most it won't be a "retirement level" profit, just a better or worse investment.

As a final note I think I can give you the following great advise: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1924731.msg19097436#msg19097436

IOW, I don't think you really need any additional advise from me.

Thanks for the reply. As you said, a nice, round $1 million would be more than enough for most people in most countries. I believe the "classic" 21 BTC is a good amount to have, which makes the above goal almost a certainty. As for me, my stash has increased since that post of mine that you've quoted, but still in double digits (*), so I guess I still have some way to go before I can consider myself financially independent, whatever that may mean to each one of us. I can safely say, however, that if when BTC/USD reaches or exceeds $100k, my personal goal (not necessarily the one stated above) will have been reached by a good margin.

(*) The above is purely hypothetical, I forgot my passphrase, all coins gone, now only have what's left in my Kraken account (around 1000 Doge I think)...
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January 18, 2020, 08:28:38 PM


Once we get going make sure you reference the MRV-Z and Puell multiple to assess the top  Wink

Because, you know, we will be the only ones doing that, so it will work for sure.

Guess we'll see, but I don't think the number of people using the indicators will affect their usefulness. 
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January 18, 2020, 08:37:59 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2020, 09:08:47 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.

Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink

I see your point and I agree, except that the current price may be too high for a newcomer to be able to accumulate "enough stake" in the game to achieve financial independence at a much lower price...

Out of curiosity, what amount would you (or other fellow WOs) consider a healthy stash that one should have in order to realistically achieve financial independence? I know that it depends on country of residence, lifestyle, etc., but would love to hear your opinions on this.

If you are just getting into bitcoin, you do not have any choice.

You have to buy at today's prices, figure out your strategy and tailor your accumulating approach to your own circumstances.  Accumulation takes time, so even though in 2013, I might have been hesitant to say that you have to look ahead beyond 2 years, I think that these days, bitcoin is much more of an established investment in which you can plan to stay in a minimum of 4 years, but really 4-6 years is a prudent starting point.  If you are just getting in, you should not be expecting to retire in 4-6 years, but instead maybe be in a lot better position 4-6 years down the road to reassess what to do based on the BTC accumulation strategy that you have been following for the previous 4-6 years, which would likely including DCA, buying on dips, possible front loading and researching and tweaking your plans and system along the way.

Each person sets his/her targets in accordance with his own situation.  A new person who comes in at 50 years old and an already decently established investment portfolio is going to chose how to allocate differently than someone who is just graduating high school and maybe living on their own for the first time, whether that is at 16 years old or 18 years old or 21 years old or whatever age it is that someone might be first establishing his/her investment strategies, including probably considering that college is part of the plan or whatever younger person early life plans are part of the expenses and investments.

[edited out]
As a final note I think I can give you the following great advise: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1924731.msg19097436#msg19097436

IOW, I don't think you really need any additional advise from me.

Great for you, bitserve, to point out that thread with AlcoHoDL's own words. 

Even though AlcoHoDL was somewhat insightful in putting in a pretty decent chunk of investment in to BTC during an extended down period, the more important thing in his two posts in that thread seems to be that he identified a variety of long term fundamentals of bitcoin (at least reasons that he wanted to be "into" bitcoin), and that he had considered that his timeline for investment was at least 10 years (which is actually longer than the 4-6 year minimum that I am suggesting in my above response). 

So yeah 10 years does seem like a more reasonable investment timeline than 4-6 years, and so even though I was attempting to grant more shorter term flexibility and options, there remains a lot of wisdom if anyone who is just coming in allows for both the investing of money that can be afforded to lose and allowing the investment to play out for 10 years.. and might not even be as important concerning when the investor bought (top, middle, or bottom of the cycle) but just the fact that the investor is letting the whole matter ride for 10 years from the time of the investment... By the way, these kinds of long term allowances is one of the presumptions of the values of DCA investing also.
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January 18, 2020, 08:55:29 PM

Observing all the 8’s

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January 18, 2020, 09:20:29 PM

heck, we can do better...a WO wonderful hatcoin (WOW or WOH).

The number of coins is limited to xhomerix -issued (he is the treasurer).
Should be no more than 100-150 so far, a few more later. This is a strict one hat-one token situation (collectible).
Or, maybe one hat gives you 10-100 coins so it is somewhat more liquid, so you can give your heroes a coin or two.
Could be a sidechain if we don't want ERC-something.

69 coins divisible 69 decimal places.  What's wrong with the liquidity of that?  Not that anyone will ever own a whole coin.. instead fractions of a coin.. .. and gosh.. fungibility would be a bit fucked up, because presumably each coin has some kind of collectible hat-based WO history...    Like any bitcoin-imitation wannabe get rich from scarcity, it is bound to have a variety of scammy seeming issues, including issuance and distribution and butt-hurtedness of late-comers.
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