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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26317605 times)
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JayJuanGee
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January 23, 2020, 12:11:47 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), Paashaas (1), LUCKMCFLY (1)

If that 4% thing is right and you have enough coins. You can get 4% from freebitcoin

So you could withdraw the 4% eternally without degrading the principle at all

Oh and without the 20x longs


Would you really put all your Bitcoin stash there to earn that 4% and be confident that they will be safu during all of your remaining lifetime?

Guess not.

Also that doesn't mitigate the volatility risk nor the catastrophic event one. You still have all your eggs in the same single asset and just add a great lot of third party risk.

I thought one of the goals of "retiring" was to be able to sleep at night.

All that defi is a bunch of fucking baloney, just like you suggested, bitserve.

Bitcoin has very decent potential for appreciating in value at least 4% per year on average into the future, so long as you consider averaging your assessment of your returns from a multi-year perspective, then you are likely to do quite well with bitcoin (no guarantees, of course), so why the fuck do you need any more price appreciation than that and to put your coins with a third party?

Before I got into bitcoin, I had nearly 30 years of returns of various traditional investments that averaged around 5.5% annual returns through all of those years.  Yeah, there were up years and there were down years, and I thought that I had done pretty well for myself in terms of returns and in terms of building a decently sized nest egg over so many years. 

Bitcoin has provided way better returns from my late 2013 entering into it to present, and there really is no reason to believe that someone who is investing with around a 4 year time horizon or longer, or even better yet a much much longer time horizon that goes into the 10 to 15 years plus is not going to have much better returns than I had experienced with my traditional investments.  .. of course, no guarantees, but part of the promise of bitcoin remains that it seems to still be early stages and it is going to take a while to really grown and to get adopted, so it is not too late to establish a plan and to stick with it and to likely prosper from such plan 10-15 years or more down the road.

So yeah, if you end up averaging 5.5% returns, even when you start to withdraw from bitcoin, the likely 5.5% returns or greater should largely be maintaining the value of your principle, but of course, you also can consider that if you are aware of potential risk that you might have some lower percentage returns or that the amount of your withdrawal in terms of actual size of your principle is NOT large enough, then  the problem with your whole situation would likely be that you just are NOT fucking ready to start to withdraw because your principle is too damned low to sustain yourself.

Rome was not built in a day.  Like I mentioned for myself, I had spent close to 30 years investing in various assets before even meeting up with bitcoin and building the size of my investment fund (and capital) by continuing to invest into various aspects of my funds in a kind of dollar cost averaging approach.  So, yeah, when I got into bitcoin, I already had established a considerably large nest egg with which to work and to enter into a position into bitcoin.

I am suggesting that you should not be expecting major ass short-cuts to get to capital accumulation, even by investing in bitcoin.  You still have to build up your own personal portfolio and the amount of capital that you have in your control.  Yeah, if you only have a few thousand dollars in your fund then it is going to take a long fucking time to wait for that amount of value to appreciate into something that is meaningfully large enough to sustain yourself, so your investing should continue with the passage of time rather than just front loading and then waiting 10 years and you might not have enough front loaded into the system, but if you continue to invest, even if your cost per unit (satoshi in this case) is more, you still are able to accumulate a larger capital base with the passage of time rather than just putting whatever you have in at the beginning of your investing, but if you keep plugging value into it over the years in a kind of dollar cost averaging way or buying on dips and blah blah blah, the amount that you have had invested continues to become larger and larger and large, but also the amount of your total package continues to feel a lot more comfortable too, even if each time that you buy some more does not seem to add to the total very much. 

So even if I am anticipating that you might be able to reduce 30 years of accumulation down by 1/2 or 2/3, you still gotta put in a lot of time, effort and value and don't do anything stupid that is going to screw things up by depleting your principle. 

Even with the best of circumstances, it tends to take a long fucking time to build up principle (I think bitserve said this, too), and might seem like a slow crawl in the beginning, but that amount that invested in the beginning will likely be unobtainable at later dates at anywhere near the same price that you had gotten it, and if you gamble with your principle after you had already spent 10 years or some other ungodly amount of time building it up, you might get lucky and be able to increase your total base, but you might also fuck up the whole thing by taking too many chances with your holdings, and smart investors do not put too much of their principle at risk in any one investment.  Who the fuck wants to be faced with having to build up his/her principle again when prices are likely higher than they were 10-15 years earlier when s/he had first started stacking those sats.

So, who fucking cares if BTC prices go up along the way and you cannot get as many sats per fiat, you can only do so much on the front loading because if you are a young person you only have so much income or so much capital that is at your disposal and a central part your strategy should be to be investing without putting too much of your principle at risk.. even if the principle seems small in the beginning.. it is good to develop good practices, even in the beginning with seemingly small amounts of principle...

and fuck that giving your principle away or locking it up with some third party in order to earn anything less than 10% (and even 10% might not even be enough of a return to take the risk of having some third party run off with your principle and then you have to start over).   

Anyhow, I think just investing into bitcoin is likely to get you great ass returns into the future that are much better than traditional markets, and like bitserve said in another post, you should be diversifying along the way.. or at least considering meaningful stacking away of value diversification strategies. 

Yeah, sure when you are just starting out in your investing, you might NOT have enough value into bitcoin to really justify diversifying, but after a few years, the amount stacked away will likely start to add up and you do not necessarily want all your eggs in one basket (even if in a seemingly good investment like bitcoin).. but that does not necessarily mean investing in shitcoins, but there might be some ways that you are comfortable to diversify a bit out of bitcoin that helps you to weather the ups (and especially the downs) better, but maybe you are not really comfortable diversifying until you are 5 or 10 years into investing into bitcoin because you consider that the value of your investment is just not high enough to really justify diversifying.. and those are all personal and discretionary choices regarding how much diversification that you feel is necessary, and part of the reason that diversification into other cryptos might not be justified is because they are largely in the same or too similar of an class as bitcoin, and so diversification would mean attempting to diversify into classes of assets or investments that are not so closely correlated with bitcoin or at least in somewhat different classes.. and such choices might be different 5-10 years from now as compared to what might be good or decent asset diversification choices today..
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January 23, 2020, 12:40:34 AM

[Snip again]
It's not just that Bitcoin doesn't provide income... which is not completely true, because there are places where you can earn an interest from it.

I mean 'as opposed to stocks and gilts / bonds' in terms of collecting passive income.  But I agree with you in most other respects.

Especially in that I ain't ever handing over my keys for any promise of interest. Ever.

Yeah.

Btw, I still remember sometimes the PM conversation we had around a couple years ago. You were right and I wasn't... or at least I had some room for improvement for sure Wink

I think we did speak about tax or something, yes...  But I am rarely right, so I daren't look it up just in case I wasn't!  I certainly am routinely wrong about the Bitcoin price, that's for sure.

I have enjoyed you airing thoughts about long term financial security, it seemed to prompt a lot of people to think on it, and that is a good thing.

We live in a world where where (understandably) hope often obscures reality; it's easier not to think about selling when hodling is for many of us is a way of life. 
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January 23, 2020, 02:24:04 AM
Merited by thisisntbic (1)

Ain't nobody got time to read that
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January 23, 2020, 02:49:37 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), bitebits (1)

For all your encryption needs, I highly recommend VeraCrypt. The continuation of the highly successful TrueCrypt project, it's free, open-source, and thoroughly tried and tested. The "open-source" part is especially important, and is considered a requirement for an encryption product that's worth your time and trust, as a closed-source product may have backdoors that no one can detect.

Need to store data on the cloud, but worried about others having access to it or the cloud server getting hacked? Simple! Just create an encrypted VeraCrypt container, put all your sensitive data in there, and then store the container file itself in the cloud. No one can access your files without the container passphrase, which only you will know.


https://www.idrix.fr/VeraCrypt/canary.txt

Quote
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512

This is VeraCrypt's Warrant Canary.

Statements
- -----------

VeraCrypt developers state the following:

1. The date of issue of this canary is December 31st, 2019.

2. VeraCrypt main signing key is used to sign this canary. Its ID is
0x680D16DE and its fingerprint is

5069 A233 D55A 0EEB 174A 5FC3 821A CD02 680D 16DE

3. No warrants have ever been served to them with regards to the
VeraCrypt Project (e.g. to hand out the private signing keys, or to
introduce backdoors), nor have any searches or seizures taken place.

4. The next such canary statement is planned to be published before
the end of January 2020. Special note should be taken if no new
canary gets published by that time, or if the list of statements
change without plausible explanation.

Disclaimers & Notes
- ---------------------

This scheme is not infallible. Although signing the declaration makes
it very difficult for a third party to produce arbitrary declarations,
it does not prevent them from using force, or other means like
blackmail, or compromise of the signers' laptops, to coerce us to
produce false declarations.

The news feed quoted below (Proof of Date) serves to demonstrate that
this canary could not have been created prior to the date stated. It
shows that a series of canaries were not created in advance.

This declaration is merely a best effort and provided without any
guarantees, warranty, and is not legally binding in any way to
anybody.  None of the signers should be ever held legally responsible
for any of the statements made here.


Proof of Date
- -------------------

As of Tuesday, 31 December 2019 12:14:00 UTC, here are the current headlines:
(from http://feeds.bbci.co.uk/news/world/rss.xml)

US embassy in Iraq attacked by protesters angry at air strikes on militia
US forces fire tear gas to disperse a crowd that breached the compound's outer wall.

Carlos Ghosn, Nissan's ex-head, flees Japan to Lebanon
In a statement, Carlos Ghosn said he "escaped injustice" after leaving Japan where he faced a trial.

Australia fires: Military to be deployed to help rescue effort
Aircraft and ships will be sent to New South Wales and Victoria, where thousands fled to the coast.

Sydney mayor defends New Year's fireworks despite protests
Clover Moore said the city's celebrations would "give hope to people" as bushfires rage.

India cold wave: Delhi reels from coldest day in more than a century
The maximum day temperature plummeted to 9.4C on Monday setting a new record for the chilliest day.

Shuri Castle: Appeal for images to 'rebuild' burned site online
The plan hopes to create a virtual 3D version of Japan's Shuri Castle, which was destroyed by fire.

Alabama police apologise for 'insensitive' homeless quilt photo
Two officers taped together cardboard signs begging for money, and posted the photo on Facebook.

What links 2019’s wave of global protests?
Protests in Hong Kong, Chile and the Middle East all shared an online presence which helped connect the movements.

Monsey stabbing: Journals of attacker 'referenced Jews'
Grafton Thomas, accused of attempted murder, also allegedly made references to "Nazi culture".

Huawei feels 'bite of winter' after Trump ban
The firm admits life will be "difficult" after the Trump administration banned the firm in the US.

Cancer patient set on fire during operation in Romania
The woman, who was having an operation for pancreatic cancer, died after suffering severe burns.

Why is Bolivia expelling foreign diplomats?
It is ejecting one ambassador and various other officials following a dramatic confrontation.

Texas church shooting: Gunman killed by churchgoer named
Keith Thomas Kinnunen was shot dead by a churchgoer, after he had killed two of the congregation.

2019 in news: The alternative end-of-the-year awards
- From the ridiculous to the more ridiculous, the weird stories that caught the eye this year.

Citizenship Act protests: Why fear has gripped Muslims in this Indian state
The Muslim community in Uttar Pradesh is living in fear after a new citizenship law came into effect.

China internet: Top talking points of 2019 and how they evaded the censors
- From rebellious numbers to state-backed trends, China's internet was a noisy place in 2019.

Africa's year in pictures 2019
A selection of the best photos from across Africa this year.

Tech 2019: Our biggest technology stories
Social media scandals dominate the list of the most-read news stories by the Tech desk this year.

'Man on the Moon' moment - the year's big breakthroughs
The year of treating the untreatable: 2019 breakthroughs that could transform medicine.

Bushfires in Australia forces thousands to flee to beaches
Residents in Mallacoota try to escape a wall of flames heading towards the coast.

New Zealand fireworks help usher in new decade
Auckland has become the world's first major city to celebrate the start of 2020 with a bang.

Australia bushfire emergency: 'We were all terrified for our lives'
David Jeffrey was among thousands who fled to the beach in Mallacoota as fires approached the town.

'I feel complete' in Uganda - George the Poet
London-born spoken word artist and podcaster George the Poet reflects on belonging, diaspora and his Ugandan heritage before his first gig in the country.

CCTV shows narrow escape from tree in Turkey
No-one has been reported injured after a tree fell on the street.

When Greta Thunberg met Sir David Attenborough
The teenage activist and veteran naturalist talk to each other for the first time (via Skype).

Autism diagnosis: 'I want 40 years of my life back'
People diagnosed with autism in adulthood describe growing up believing they were "bad" or "alien".

The Syrian town with more cats than people
The few remaining inhabitants of a bombed-out Syrian town take comfort from hundreds, perhaps thousands, of cats.

Hunting the missing millions from collapsed cryptocurrency
On the trail of almost half a billion dollars lost when the Wex exchange collapsed in 2018.

The best space images of 2019
With some blockbuster space missions underway, 2019 saw some amazing images beamed back to Earth.

'We can give a lot of the power back to the fans'
How two friends created an online storytelling platform with more than 80 million global users.

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
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=gjfX
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----


That's not a backup. Seen this too many times, people trusting the cloud, then comes a thunderstorm and that specific cloud where your goodies were is blown away (with or without encryption).  Think decentralization!
I used duplicity with free protonmail accounts to backup some important data offsite (additionally to local backups).

I agree thet Veracrypt looks mature, unlike i.e. encfs based things that shouldn't be trusted with important data as its not good enough for that. But it's a nice overview that VB1001 posted, thanks.

Coincidentally i am cloning drives atm.
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January 23, 2020, 04:06:59 AM
Last edit: January 23, 2020, 01:27:23 PM by klintay

I wouldn't trust the cloud with my private keys...that's insanity on another level...you never heard of #TheFappening
but yeah with encryption there is some protection in case of a hack
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January 23, 2020, 04:48:30 AM

Quote
I've outlined 10 key points of $BTC.

The latest one, the 10th point, is the breakout a 7- months Falling Wedge structure. The journey to ATH has just begun


https://twitter.com/IamCryptoWolf/status/1220068106829254657
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January 23, 2020, 05:41:01 AM

People seriously leave their BTC long term on a random centralized website where they don’t control the private keys just to get a reported 4% interest?

You can get over 100% profits quite regularly just by HODLING.

Remember people leave their usd long term on random centralized websites and services where they don't control their funds, just to get a reported X% interest. It's apparently very common. Therefore, the idea that this (fiat-orientated) interest scheme is popular among (I'm assuming) fiat users is far from surprising, even if it's disappointing to see.

Fuck that!

Not your keys, not your BTC!

The popularity of these schemes implies that new buyers are entering the market in my opinion, which is a good sign however. Kind of like the way BCC showed just how ripe the crypto market was in 2017 by (literally) consuming lots of new users into the market... They were also promising daily interest if I'm not mistaken.
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January 23, 2020, 06:08:27 AM
Merited by Cryptotourist (1)

People seriously leave their BTC long term on a random centralized website where they don’t control the private keys just to get a reported 4% interest?

You can get over 100% profits quite regularly just by HODLING.

Remember people leave their usd long term on random centralized websites and services where they don't control their funds, just to get a reported X% interest. It's apparently very common. Therefore, the idea that this (fiat-orientated) interest scheme is popular among (I'm assuming) fiat users is far from surprising, even if it's disappointing to see.

Fuck that!

Not your keys, not your BTC!

The popularity of these schemes implies that new buyers are entering the market in my opinion, which is a good sign however. Kind of like the way BCC showed just how ripe the crypto market was in 2017 by (literally) consuming lots of new users into the market... They were also promising daily interest if I'm not mistaken.

I can't find the link..but back when I started in Bitcoin say around 2013 or 2014 it was a big deal to sell actual bitcoin coins with the private key on them. You would scratch off the covering to 

get to the private keys like a lotto ticket and store them in stacks in that manner. The trouble was  that someone in the process of making these kinda bitcoin coins at whatever factory or

the process must have researched Bitcoin and copied the keys on every coin sold, either before they were covered with the scratch-off stuff or maybe a file someplace. I can't find the link.

I think it was a couple of years later when the person actually flushed them all in the heist. Can you imagine thinking you had legit safe keys and then 'poof' it was gone?

Looks likely to me 'someone's' boring factory and assembly work paid off big time. Pretty sure they never caught the person but damned if I can find the link. Sad
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January 23, 2020, 06:14:50 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), DaRude (1)

The best started since 2012 ..




Quote
(CME) launched one such product, a bitcoin options contract, which reportedly had a successful first day of trading with a total of 55 contracts, worth 275 bitcoin, or the equivalent of $2.4 million.



Quote
As much as 65 percent of respondents to a survey conducted by crypto indexer Bitwise and ETF Trends said that a crypto ETF was their preferred method of getting exposure, followed by a distant 16 percent preferring direct ownership and an even more distant 9 percent preferring a mutual fund.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/01/21/bitcoin-has-its-best-start-to-a-year-since-2012#69eccbae69e9
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January 23, 2020, 07:17:14 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 02:17:27 PM by dragonvslinux

[macd reference]

MACD Fakeout or Trend Change?



Quote from: TradingView
As the MACD shows on the Daily chart , we are currently facing a not-yet-confirmed bear-cross today, lasts seen December 17th 2019 at $6,612. Since the breakdown from $10K last September we have seen 4 bear crosses, twice causing the price to drop 20-25% (September 21st & November 9th 2019), the other two two times were not-so-obvious bear traps before price rallied 40% (October 24th at $7,435 and as previously referenced).

Needless to say, there is more upside with this becoming a MACD fakeout, than a trend change to bearish on the Daily chart . It's also worth noting that while the Daily is bear-crossing, the Weekly MACD is still close to bull-crossing, implying a lack of confluence.
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January 23, 2020, 07:21:41 AM

Number go down.

Number not supposed to go down.

Number needs to go up.

Number listening
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January 23, 2020, 07:45:09 AM
Last edit: January 23, 2020, 08:12:26 AM by El duderino_

LoL, Peter schiff latest tweet admitting he was making a mistake with his pin episode etc.....

The lie became to big I suppose....


https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1220135541330542592?s=21
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January 23, 2020, 08:01:31 AM

https://rhythmofbitcoin.substack.com/p/blockchain-is-the-censored-word-for

Quote
Now imagine a means to store wealth outside the system of governmental control that’s within the average citizens reach - a type of gold that weighs nothing, takes up no space, and can't be counterfeited or seized. It teleports instantaneously anywhere in the world and no one can stop it from happening. You can verify with perfect certainty the amount in the entire universe, and how much of the total supply you own yourself for less than $100 of hardware and an internet connection.


When number goes down, just remember the basics. Bitcoin is f*cking awesome!
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January 23, 2020, 08:12:24 AM

LoL, Peter schiff latest tweet admitting he was making a mistake with his pin episode etc.....

The lie became to big I suppose....

What a massive dildo
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January 23, 2020, 08:14:05 AM

LoL, Peter schiff latest tweet admitting he was making a mistake with his pin episode etc.....

The lie became to big I suppose....

What a massive dildo

The moment when there is no wood to make arrows anymore, r0ach will experience this situation as well
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January 23, 2020, 08:31:48 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Not sure if there's any other Trekkies on here and a little off topic but Picard just released. Gonna sit down now after work and enjoy the continuation of one of my most favourite shows as a kid;if there's anyone else watching, hope you enjoy as well!
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January 23, 2020, 09:17:52 AM

Finally found the best trader in the world:
https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1219927530422988800

The rest multiply with (-1) at the end  Grin
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January 23, 2020, 09:20:18 AM

People seriously leave their BTC long term on a random centralized website where they don’t control the private keys just to get a reported 4% interest?

You can get over 100% profits quite regularly just by HODLING.

Remember people leave their usd long term on random centralized websites and services where they don't control their funds, just to get a reported X% interest. It's apparently very common. Therefore, the idea that this (fiat-orientated) interest scheme is popular among (I'm assuming) fiat users is far from surprising, even if it's disappointing to see.

Fuck that!

Not your keys, not your BTC!

The popularity of these schemes implies that new buyers are entering the market in my opinion, which is a good sign however. Kind of like the way BCC showed just how ripe the crypto market was in 2017 by (literally) consuming lots of new users into the market... They were also promising daily interest if I'm not mistaken.

I can't find the link..but back when I started in Bitcoin say around 2013 or 2014 it was a big deal to sell actual bitcoin coins with the private key on them. You would scratch off the covering to 

get to the private keys like a lotto ticket and store them in stacks in that manner. The trouble was  that someone in the process of making these kinda bitcoin coins at whatever factory or

the process must have researched Bitcoin and copied the keys on every coin sold, either before they were covered with the scratch-off stuff or maybe a file someplace. I can't find the link.

I think it was a couple of years later when the person actually flushed them all in the heist. Can you imagine thinking you had legit safe keys and then 'poof' it was gone?

Looks likely to me 'someone's' boring factory and assembly work paid off big time. Pretty sure they never caught the person but damned if I can find the link. Sad

Sounds more like speculation regarding having coins stolen through insider intervention rather than something that actually happened.

Are you referring to Casascius coins or some other brand of coin?

Apparently they had a Casascius bar too, that was worth 100 BTC....

https://news.bitcoin.com/someone-redeemed-a-100-btc-casascius-bar-worth-over-700k/
JayJuanGee
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January 23, 2020, 09:43:50 AM

Number go down.

Number not supposed to go down.

Number needs to go up.

As I type, we are experiencing a bit of a BTC price correction - down a few percentage points for the week (currently at about $8,440), so I would suggest that our current running return for the year is a bit over 17.38%  Starting price around $7,190.

In contrast, the Forbes article cited above by LUCKMCFLY shows the first 15 days as up 22.54%

Of course, there are decent chances that support at $8k or lower could get tested.. .still unclear about that, but frequently there will be some incentive to try to correct (or test) down  (and support) a bit after a decent price rise before resuming up, in the event that we are going to continue with some up, since the halvening is anticipated to be about May 9th-ish, too.
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January 23, 2020, 10:00:16 AM

Oooow, its Thursday, come on Lambie slayer, we ain't got time for this, take your padawan back under your wing please, guide program him well and make an honest bot out of it... THX
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