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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 56 (21.5%)
2024 - 105 (40.4%)
2025 - 74 (28.5%)
2026 - 4 (1.5%)
2027 - 2 (0.8%)
After 2027 - 5 (1.9%)
Never - 14 (5.4%)
Total Voters: 260

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26117648 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
bitserve
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January 04, 2020, 07:47:13 PM

Why would they make a KYC law only for BTC?

Maybe because btc is easier to conceal or move than money in banks or other paper assets.

But we aren't talking about huge amounts. If somebody wants to cash out $1m worth of bitcoins in an exchange of course they would ask KYC for that. There needs to be no exception for that crap.

My point is why would they ask for KYC when someone wants to cash out $1k worth of BTC while they don't ask it when you convert your $1k to 1k€?

Doesn't make any sense.

The situation now is such that even if you go to a bank to exchange a single 500€ note into smaller denominations you need to be KYC'ed. Why would exchanging 500€ of BTC into FIAT be any different?

Same for exchanging $ to € in a bank.

Also any person that do manage/store lots of cash is susceptible to be investigated/questioned about the origin of all that cash. Same if it were a big stash of gold or basically any unexplained wealth. Why would BTC be any different?

Either Bitcoin fails and they won't care OR we will see way more strict KYC/AML rules enforced on it in the future. More so considering the lack of physical entity makes it much more susceptible to be "misused".

"There should not be any signed int. If you've found a signed int somewhere, please tell me (within the next 25 years please) and I'll change it to unsigned int." -- Satoshi
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January 04, 2020, 07:53:18 PM

very interesting discussion boys.

so act now. let your TREZOR's roast. split to 100,000 sats. fees are low.

EDIT: I will do a test the next days if it is possible with a TREZOR and with Legacy and SegWit addresses.
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January 04, 2020, 07:56:02 PM
Last edit: January 04, 2020, 08:10:46 PM by Biodom

#human activity#

I'm thinking about how to split 1 BTC for future use. if the price will go somewhere to the 1m level I will however be under the radar of large fiat tx monitoring (<10k EUR) by authorities if I have to transfer it to a marketplace.

I'm uncertain about to spilt 1 BTC to 1,000 (0.001) or 10,000 (0.0001) adresses and hold them on a TREZOR.

any thoughts on that from you guys?

EDIT: but I think split 1 BTC to 1,000 adresses (1,000 x 0.001) should be enough.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Address_reuse

too much work for too little benefit, IMHO.
Remembering (or properly storing) keys to all those accounts if paper wallets?
I am not sure that Trezor can manage. It certainly chokes on an account with 1K tx and complains even about an account with 200tx.
BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

Besides, I thought that you are in Germany, where there is NO capital gains taxes on crypto (and no income taxes) if held more than a year.
In US, apparently, one can ID the specific tx for a particular sale, although I am not 100% sure about it (FIFO is typically better).
IN US current long term (held more than 12mo) tax rate is 0-20% (0 for income of less than 39.4K, 15% for 39.4-434.5K and 20% on above 434.5K). Quite reasonable, I should say.
Contact CPA, not a tax advise.
jojo69
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January 04, 2020, 08:02:46 PM

Why would they make a KYC law only for BTC?

why wouldn't they?
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January 04, 2020, 08:09:50 PM

BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

how they are connected from the outside view? you generate 1000 addresses for 1 BTC and split it to 0.001 on every single address with WasabiWallet for example.

I will consider all costs against the hypothetical benefit in the future.
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January 04, 2020, 08:14:41 PM

BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

how they are connected from the outside view? you generate 1000 addresses for 1 BTC and split it to 0.001 on every single address with WasabiWallet for example.

I will consider all costs against the hypothetical benefit in the future.

The graph https://blog.trezor.io/wallet-accounts-and-addresses-bdfa6b66b037 is indicative.
A tree. 10 accounts per wallet limit.
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January 04, 2020, 08:21:42 PM

BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

how they are connected from the outside view? you generate 1000 addresses for 1 BTC and split it to 0.001 on every single address with WasabiWallet for example.

I will consider all costs against the hypothetical benefit in the future.

The graph https://blog.trezor.io/wallet-accounts-and-addresses-bdfa6b66b037 is indicative.
A tree. 10 accounts per wallet limit.

I speak about addresses not accounts. BIP032 wallets with as much key pairs you want in it and the public view onto the blockchain.
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January 04, 2020, 08:25:29 PM
Merited by Globb0 (2), Cryptotourist (1)

I liked the original too.  Smiley

Ot oh!



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January 04, 2020, 08:25:41 PM



how? I'm very interested in your answer, really.


And if you do use a mixer or are able to really ofuscate your coins... then comes the problem on future AML/KYC where you could have problems spending your coins.

if you have countries like Portugal or Germany (where you just have to prove you own the address more than a year) i do expect not a large problem even if you have to go with the AML/KYC procedure.

Prove of ownership more than a year in the past for a single adress with a amount of 0.001 BTC on it would be perfect for me in 2027.  Grin

Well, let's say you do your split one BTC into 1000 parts. Ok, unless you do a lot more additional movements it would be easy to see where do those BTC come from. AND if you ever use more than one to do a payment (ie: for any tx higher than 0.001) you will have to combine several and then it will be absolutely clear the common point where these addresses come from.

It's not just proof of ownership, but origin of funds... something that complicates if you do manage to really obfuscate the origin of yours. And in the case of using a mixer, you could end with coins "tainted" in some way or another.

I mean, yeah, go split some of your coins if you want.... but don't go full retard on it Tongue

i don't doubt that if you have addresses with which you will get in focus of authorities because you have an monthly income of <10k and you want to cash out an address with >500k on it. but if you are flying under the radar with small addresses you don't have to prove the origin of funds. and even if. I bought mining equipment in 2013 for what? to play SatoshiDice and lost all or either not.

When BTC goes 1mio, the tax authorities will have software that tells them exactly to which wallet an address holding coins belongs as bitserve already explained, there will be certainly no more "under the radar" by then latest. Some block explorers can do a good job on associating addresses to wallets already nowadays.
Also consider that when BTC goes to 1mio, you won't be able to cash out the smallest amount to fiat without KYC, I would consider that too.

Like bitserve I'd also strongly really recommend against such a 1000-split. Otherwise you need to go through a mixer or an exchange but these fees would kill your plan completely.

Writing from a tax paradise with regards to crypto coins it could be perceived as offensive and rude if I would say "just pay your taxes then", but it could save you some trouble and a lot of fees though I am not in your shoes and can't judge what taxes would eat away.






Here you go, either BitCoin goes 'arm in arm' on best purpose as planned already by Satoshi right from the start, means most transparent and even IP to IP, not anonymous as later it was altered into...

Or BTC will get into serious problems. No world wide adoption I see here


BTW, best and safest money is NOT transferred anonymously
d_eddie
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January 04, 2020, 08:30:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

how they are connected from the outside view? you generate 1000 addresses for 1 BTC and split it to 0.001 on every single address with WasabiWallet for example.

I will consider all costs against the hypothetical benefit in the future.

I think 1000 .001 btc addresses is overkill. The idea suggested by bitserve makes more sense to me. I'd make 4 addresses, 250 mbtc each. Or split one of them recursively:

1/2, 1/4, 1/8, .... , 1/n, 1/n (the last two addresses get the same amount).

You would have plenty of granularity this way.
Gyrsur
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January 04, 2020, 08:35:32 PM

BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

how they are connected from the outside view? you generate 1000 addresses for 1 BTC and split it to 0.001 on every single address with WasabiWallet for example.

I will consider all costs against the hypothetical benefit in the future.

I think 1000 .001 btc addresses is overkill. The idea suggested by bitserve makes more sense to me. I'd make 4 addresses, 250 mbtc each. Or split one of them recursively:

1/2, 1/4, 1/8, .... , 1/n, 1/n (the last two addresses get the same amount).

You would have plenty of granularity this way.

thank you Eddie! my urine is just telling me in 10 years the idea was not overkill.  Grin

remember the early days. they had paper wallets with 50 BTC on it because mining reward was 50 BTC. if you will find such a piece of paper behind your couch you can buy a flat or a house with it depending on your area.
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January 04, 2020, 08:44:37 PM
Last edit: January 04, 2020, 08:56:03 PM by Biodom

BTW, if you make all those accounts on a single Trezor, they are all connected anyway.

how they are connected from the outside view? you generate 1000 addresses for 1 BTC and split it to 0.001 on every single address with WasabiWallet for example.

I will consider all costs against the hypothetical benefit in the future.

The graph https://blog.trezor.io/wallet-accounts-and-addresses-bdfa6b66b037 is indicative.
A tree. 10 accounts per wallet limit.

I speak about addresses not accounts. BIP032 wallets with as much key pairs you want in it and the public view onto the blockchain.

I say it is a bad idea anyway.
Personally, I don't intend to nickel and dime it.
If and when 1mil..or 100k..or something in between, will transfer a piece to exchange (probably where I bought it in the first place), get cash, pay tax, etc.
However, for pure expense management having a few various size accounts: around 1, 0.1, 0.001, 0.0001btc makes sense (yep, granularity).
Those happen naturally in most cases.
Then, depending on the fiat vs btc, 1btc would be another house, car or vacation vs 0.1btc being a good car, a suit, Oculus Rift, etc.
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January 04, 2020, 09:51:30 PM
Merited by marcus_of_augustus (1)

BTW, best and safest money is NOT transferred anonymously

found the statist fuck
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January 04, 2020, 10:02:10 PM

BTC/USD
Long/Short Ratio
91:8
% of supply long:short
0.24:0.022
Long Daily Charge
$44,128
Short Daily Charge
0.13236 BTC
Total Long
43,997 ($324,548,270)

Funded Longs
$133,719,768
Total Short
3,987 ($29,410,504)

Funded Shorts
3,309 BTC


shorts got squeezed

what comes next ?

jbreher
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January 04, 2020, 10:28:39 PM

[...]

Writing from a tax paradise with regards to crypto coins it could be perceived as offensive and rude if I would say "just pay your taxes then", but it could save you some trouble and a lot of fees though I am not in your shoes and can't judge what taxes would eat away.

Well, if my coins are ever worth several million US dollars, I wouldn't mind paying my taxes and thus being able to spend the rest of my wealth without worrying about the tax man checking me out all the time. For example, assuming I end up holding the equivalent of $100m, I wouldn't mind at all paying even half of it ($50m) in taxes! If this means that I end up with $50m that I can freely and totally legally spend without worrying at all, I'm perfectly happy with that.

BTW, the above is purely hypothetical, I forgot my passphrase, all coins gone, now only have what's left in my Kraken account (around 1000 Doge I think)...

I haven't really made my mind about taxes (sometimes i think it is theft, sometimes I think we need to pay taxes or else everything will fall apart. Can't decide.) though I am not sure if you would be OK when you see the amount they are going to ask from you.

I'll give you a hint. They'll ask at least 1/3. Most likely half.

I am no fucking way OK with this amount. NO. Fuckin. Way. (1/3, maybe but it is still going to make me sad and angry.)

Where do you live? Even in the extortionate USA, long term capital gains is 20%. And there are avenues to shield a portion of that (e.g. investing in economically disadvantages zones, etc.). Of course, that's only the income tax. And only federal at that. But perhaps you overstate the problem?
Last of the V8s
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January 04, 2020, 10:30:12 PM

what comes next ?

JayJuanGee
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January 04, 2020, 11:24:42 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

#human activity#

I'm thinking about how to split 1 BTC for future use. if the price will go somewhere to the 1m level I will however be under the radar of large fiat tx monitoring (<10k EUR) by authorities.

I'm uncertain about to spilt 1 BTC to 1,000 (0.001) or 10,000 (0.0001) adresses and hold them on a TREZOR.

any thoughts on that from you guys?

EDIT: but I think split 1 BTC to 1,000 adresses (1,000 x 0.001) should be enough.

All the effort we made in 2017 to try merge our BTC to avoid outrageous fees when claiming forks and now you are telling us it was an stupid move?

On perspective, yeah, it somehow was.

But... splitting one BTC into 1000 addresses? That is even more stupid.

If you want to split a BTC why not something like: 1x0.5, 1x0.25, 2x0.1, 5x0.01

I don't think the price will go somewhere near that "1m" level, at least not in this decade, but... if it happened I am sure I would have enough money to solve the problem and don't care.

Really, you don't want to split a BTC into that many useless parts that could be worth even less than the fees to move em.


2017..... fuck...... .


Mistakes were made.


Question becomes.  Should attempt to undo such mistakes now, or just leave things as they are.... and/or wait for better tools...

  I am afraid that some effort to take action now and separate coins, like you suggested bitserve, to split your coins into small manageable portions is just going to have a decent amount of potential to backfire in several ways... including not only the fees, as you mentioned, but also being able to go back and look at the same amount being split from a single source... reasonable inference that those are all owned by the same person, no?

Surely some tools are going to be developed, and seems that there are some on lightning network.  

Let's say that you have 1BTC in a single address, but you want to start spending BTC from that address in 2027 to live on and for anticipated extra luxurious spendings... You might already have your regular funds and accounts, but this next six months you have a BTC spending plan which involves Going on vacation, airplane tickets and hotels, renting a car or two, buying some groceries, going out eating, and since 1 BTC is $1 million in 2027, you consider that you are only going to need about .06 BTC ($60k) for all of your anticipated extra vacationing/splurging expenses for the next six months.  Accordingly, each month you send your .01 BTC from your 1btc address to your lighting channel, and as you spend those funds in the lightning channel, you replenish the channel with another .01BTC.  What is wrong with that?  Maybe you keep drawing from the same 1BTC address that gets depleted down to .94 over the next 6 months, but the recipient of the funds cannot see what address is funding your lightning channel, just can see that your channel has .01BTC or whatever amount that you need to make whatever purchases that you are making.

If that lightning channel tool is not available in 2027, then there could likely be other tool(s) that are available so that you could spend the equivalent of an extra $10k per month or whatever happens to be your budget, and not necessarily show from where the source funds are coming... AmiNOTrite?   I would not need to play around with the whole 1BTC at one time, just to incrementally spend from that source.. and it might even be way more manageable than if I had prematurely divided that 1 BTC into 1,000 equal parts or even 100 equal parts.. just might not be necessary to divide in advance.
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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January 04, 2020, 11:35:09 PM

even though you failed and refused to get four wheel drive in it

incorrectomundo, JJG

Wink

Oh my!

Not going to let a little snow, mud or even Armageddon undermine your current and future funzies.   

Gotta admire the breher family lampoon vacation.   Shocked Shocked Shocked
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January 04, 2020, 11:54:37 PM

Wen war 3.0?

BREAKING: Trump says that the US will target 52 Iranian sites if Tehran hits any Americans or American assets
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January 05, 2020, 12:03:50 AM

BTC/USD
Long/Short Ratio
91:8
% of supply long:short
0.24:0.022
Long Daily Charge
$44,128
Short Daily Charge
0.13236 BTC
Total Long
43,997 ($324,548,270)

Funded Longs
$133,719,768
Total Short
3,987 ($29,410,504)

Funded Shorts
3,309 BTC


shorts got squeezed

what comes next ?


Shorts get squeezed again.  Some more.  Sucks to be shorting.       Cry Cry   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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