Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

I quote this from my difficulty thread as the moderator may delete it.

Today btc is down.  For a trader it may be good or bad depending on his bets.
For a hodler it is a buy the dip chance.

For me I now earn more btc mining eth at nicehash then I did yesterday. So it is a hedge for me.

It always allows me to continue my fun buy and hold at PayPal as I will buy $20 more on my PayPal account.

I think the majority of the first S19 batches are already online and have been for a month or so. I could be wrong, but I don't think there will be any more coming online till January now.

I can't complain, this means we have about 8 weeks of good profitability regardless of what the price might or might not do, this should make up a bit for all the losses which many of us have been facing with the 17 series gears. .

Current difficulty status

Current Pace:   88.2848%  (1311 / 1484.97 expected, 173.97 behind)
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Next Difficulty:   between 17688830739610 and 17942127621555
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.5441% and -10.2774%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 5:34 PM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 8:42 AM  (in 5d 7h 38m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 2:10 PM  (in 5d 13h 5m 31s)

BTC price is making new highs, currently at $13777, which is great, if we break that 14k level, we should head straight to 16k, with difficulty dropping >10% is just too good to be true as Phil said.

Yeah I can sell a bit today and hedge if it crashes .
What is Nice is if it goes up I also do okay.
Since I earn more which makes up for the sale.

Concededly, I am NOT mining, so I do not have the same kinds of "hands on" and personal experience as you guys, yet I am having some troubles understanding the degree to which any kind of meaningful changes in mining difficulty are taking place.  When I look at the difficulty measurements, I mostly see minor fluctuations, especially if such measurements are made over each of the adjustment periods.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

So, currently, the difficulty estimator is showing that the next adjustment of difficulty is currently projected to be down about 5.91% in 5 days and 8 hours.... and I know that those projections can end up changing, too.. but even if such downward difficulty projection plays out, it still keeps difficulty higher than it was 4 adjustments back - on 9/7.

From a non-miner perspective, the adjustments to difficulty do not seem to be very great, significant or material, even if miners are reporting on the ground that these kinds of adjustments have a lot of meaningful impact on their own profitability - coupled with short-term UPpity BTC price moves?

Miners have to micro manage.

Forget all costs except power.  Power is paid in cash not BTC.

Monthly bills are common

So a 2 week difficulty is about 1/2 of your bill time.

Next jump is -10% and it lasts for 14 or even as much as 16 days if it is a big drop.
Since we know that rainy season prices ended for power in China the jump after this one will be -3 to +3 (estimate)

I know 28-32 days of good difficulty are coming.  I can micromanage those days. I can turn an almost certain profit for that time period.
In my case I am a 4 man team with a small team. On great months we make 8000 a month on shit months we make 2000 a month.

That is usd profit. Last month we made 2600 usd.
The projected profit based on difficulty will be 1.1 x 1.03 = 1.133 x 1 higher than last month.

This allows me a cash out choice of 345 worth of coin into fiat

2600 x 1.113 = 2945

2945-2600 = 345   and be cashed and we can still hodl the same 2600 usd worth of coin we held last month.

What kills miners is over expanding and not hodling some of the profit.

I always need to study my:
 
cash
coins
gpus
asics
debt

 vs the diff the next 2 diff and the current price along with 20% lower price and 20% higher price.

This lets me know if I need to sell some coin buy some gear sell some gear.

Look at a model with 8k a month for 12 months = 96k
Look at a model with 2k a month for 12 months = 24k

play with debt number.
play with diff number.

We have some time had 6 months of flat diff = good time to expand your mining gear

[jojo69]

WHAT IS THIS ?!

A PDUMP FOR ANTS ?!???

[Chalkbot]

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

[OutOfMemory]

$14000 in one hour

There is no to little resistance left between $14k and $20k.

If Bitcoin breaks $14k this week ore this month it will blast straight to $20k like a boss.

ATH will be reached at the end of this year ore first month(s) of 2021.

i'd say (as i did before) Q1 2021 will break the ole ATH.
Once 20k is broken, FOMO might kick in  

Quite reserved, OOM... what's up like dat?

It's just my uhm... opinion, man 
Sometimes, or more often than not, i try to be not too overly optimistic, just to be surprised even more if i was wrong. In a positive way 
You may recognize that i'm not even slightly pessimistic as well 

[OutOfMemory]

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

& you seem you have had the same password all those years   
watch out 

I always appreciate it when old members suddenly appear out of nowhere. Like ancient druids dripping in at stonehenge the day before full moon.

[Karartma1]

WHAT IS THIS ?!

A PDUMP FOR ANTS ?!???

Those are the words.
Another epic fight on 13K

[bitebits]

Once you understand #Bitcoin, you realize that the entire market capitalization of gold is nothing more than latent demand for Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1321440403103440897

[FullNode]

The goal of this dashboard is to help the Bitcoin community focus on the important metrics & KPIs that I think are most correlated with the success of the network and ecosystem. I saw a gap in the current offerings, where no one data source had all the things I wanted:

Focus on Bitcoin
Historical data
Data from multiple sources: on-chain, lightning, coinjoin, mempool, node count
Distilled to only the most important factors for network and ecosystem success, rather than NgU or trading
I hope you find it useful.

http://bitcoinkpis.com/

Bitcoin KPI (key performance indicators)
Good selection of data and resources in one place.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Holy shit, you guys are still here.

Yes still here

[Chalkbot]

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

& you seem you have had the same password all those years   
watch out 

I always appreciate it when old members suddenly appear out of nowhere. Like ancient druids dripping in at stonehenge the day before full moon.

Hehe, indeed. Were passwords compromised somewhere along the way? I'm only able to log into old stuff because I have a password manager. All my shit is unique/max length random characters.

But you're totally right that it's the day before the full moon.

[bkbirge]

Hmmm, back to hodlsleep I suppose.

[bitebits]

Nice post fillippone. Did I light up your bracelet? Does it flash when double merited?

Of course, it flashed and vibrated when you merited me (single merit, not double), and again when you mentioned me.
You actually sent a double thrill on my body.

My body is ready. (also for this)

fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone fillippone 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TEST123 #nohomo

[PoolMinor]

$15K before Nov 15th.

[FullNode]

great bitebits
fillippone
The smartwatch will explode, hope it's on your wrist

[fillippone]

Nice post fillippone. Did I light up your bracelet? Does it flash when double merited?

Of course, it flashed and vibrated when you merited me (single merit, not double), and again when you mentioned me.
You actually sent a double thrill on my body.

My body is ready. (also for this)

fillippone
<...>

TEST123 #nohomo

It doesn't work like that. Luckily @tryninja bot is smart enough to limit to one notification per post.

bitebits fillippone
The smartwatch will explode, hope it's on your wrist

I already denied uncontrolled rumors about my wristband location.

[FullNode]

Thanks fillippone, a little closer to get a hat

[serveria.com]

Ok enough of this dump, let's proceed with the rise 

[friends1980]

Nice post fillippone. Did I light up your bracelet? Does it flash when double merited?

Of course, it flashed and vibrated when you merited me (single merit, not double), and again when you mentioned me.
You actually sent a double thrill on my body.

My body is ready. (also for this)

fillippone
<...>

TEST123 #nohomo

It doesn't work like that. Luckily @tryninja bot is smart enough to limit to one notification per post.

bitebits fillippone
The smartwatch will explode, hope it's on your wrist

I already denied uncontrolled rumors about my wristband location.

Could we find an arrangement to send 1 Merit to fillippone every 24 seconds or so? @fillippone, that way you might go down in history as the first BTCTalk member who is actually unhappy about receiving Merit.

#nohomobutsexissex

[FullNode]

LFC_Bitcoin
I already start to see the shadow of the hat

[FullNode]

BlockFi Acquires a 5% Stake in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Becomes a Top Shareholder

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/blockfi-acquires-a-5-stake-in-the-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-gbtc-becomes-a-top-shareholder/