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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25525586 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
cAPSLOCK
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September 28, 2020, 02:40:05 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

My 2c about Saylor's buy of $425 mil in btc.

Contrary to everybody's enthusiasm, I found it troublesome.

1. The smart way of buying would be buying calls, then be aggressive, not making 20K tiny tx. If you have calls, then you don't care much if market moves or not as a result of your buying.

2. How he was able to find $425mil sellers without moving a market? It's not like all other buyers and sellers disappear.

Something does not compute.
To me this is an indication that market has some re-hypothecated btc and large portion of the volume is such "imaginary" btc.
It does not matter that he was able to withdraw. It simply means that they re-hypothecated even more and injected those back to exchanges.

I suspect the exchanges of the world have 10 to 20% of the coins they claim to have.

I imagine most volume is based on reserves they dont actually have.

This would be the source of what would be a somewhat novel experience in the world for finance.

To the extent institutions (can we call Bitcoin exchanges that yet?) are playing games with fractional reserves they are risking a unique sort of disaster.  Even a "run on the banks" could be solved by the Fed. In fact the whole repo thing we have been seeing is exactly that.

But Bitcoin is uniquely limited, and the most extreme of bearer assets that we've ever created.

The closest thing we have to it is Gold.  But Gold requires this:


Bitcoin does not.

Trace Meyer tried, back in the day to establish that yearly "run on the exchanges" with the whole "proof of keys" gimmick.  But that never really took hold.

The question is simple though...

I propose the idea that we are in a unique situation with bitcoin, and a shift is coming due.  Currently the main use case for Bitcoin is speculation.  We have to admit it... it is still really mostly the magical internet money casino.  But we might just be on the cusp of a paradigm shift.  

What happens when the dominant use case for Bitcoin changes from "casino" to "value store"?

As that shift happens I cannot imagine the above situation will remain tenable.

We are sitting on some sort of powder keg.  What I am not 100% certain about is if it is the sort of powder keg that blows us to the moon, or the sort that just kills us all. Wink
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September 28, 2020, 02:41:27 PM

No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.

You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above. Smiley
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September 28, 2020, 03:01:26 PM


That's why you don't tell your wife about your crypto adventures. Ever.

She'll nag about selling your bag way waaay too early forever  Roll Eyes
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September 28, 2020, 03:18:01 PM
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You forgot the last image with the caption "7 years later... I'm divorcing you and taking half of your bitcoin!"
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September 28, 2020, 03:23:01 PM

The wealthy cabal depends on internet services companies Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, PayPal, eBay, all the cloud-based services companies, etc. Stock markets depend in the internet. Governments and militaries around the world depend on the internet up and running 24/7/365.

You forgot to mention the entire mainstream banking system.

Edit: ...and media propaganda system.

Oh I definitely forgot about that last one. Can you imagine if the MSM no longer had the internet to spread propaganda, lies, and fake news? To get the people all riled up? Hell they would blow a fkn gasket...
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September 28, 2020, 03:23:21 PM

You forgot the last image with the caption "7 years later... I'm divorcing you and taking half of your bitcoin!"

Sorry love, I lost everything in a boating accident.....
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September 28, 2020, 03:24:03 PM

Happy Sunday, folks.
Fifty Thousand projected.
This time next year, yo.


I hope you are right.  But I also hope you are off by an order of magnitude.
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September 28, 2020, 03:24:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)




You forgot the last image with the caption "7 years later... I'm divorcing you and taking half of your crypto!"

Let her take the crypto. Just don't tell her about the Bitcoin.
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September 28, 2020, 03:31:41 PM
Last edit: September 29, 2020, 04:44:44 AM by bitebits

Grayscale have apparently bought another 17,000BTC in the last 7 days. The bull run is coming, boys.

The circulating supply is drying up, the price will reflect this in the next 18 months.


with all this buying, I really wonder who tf is selling all those bitcoin 45% under ATH price which was fkn almost 3 years ago. selling the best performing asset in the history of finance when it is on its way out of multiyear lows, one must be truly nuts. why tf did truly nuts folks buy it in the first place? just for trading? billions worth of coins only sold by traders? OG whales not patient enough to wait a few more months?
miners? miners that need to cover cost? but them mining only 900 btc a day, so... unlikely. scared retail? I don't think. why getting scared now, the time to get scared and panic sell was in March.

tinfoil hat therory: some entity (yeah- deep pocket banks or alike) bought a shitton of btc to dump it on every little sign of bull during this next potential run-up. because they know the next run-up is the last run-up.   Wink

well ok, not very likely. but who is selling?


Gamblers, sometimes referred to as ‘traders’ or as Jimbo would say: daytarders. And miners of course, which imho are gamblers on steroids.

Michael Saylor in one of his interviews was openly wondering where all these bitcoins were coming from when buying the 38,250 bitcoins in just eight days on exchanges, all dumped into his bids. They will run out one day.
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September 28, 2020, 03:34:13 PM

the morning wall report

#dyor
1h


4h

#stronghands
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September 28, 2020, 03:41:14 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitebits (1), gappie (1)

Regarding sell offs & weak hands....

Originally I planned to sell upwards of 50% of my bitcoin next year when we hopefully hit $50,000 plus.

Because of covid & the effect it is having & will continue to have (probably worsening) on traditional savings & investments I’ve changed my mind & plan to sell a much lower % of my stash than 50%.

I don’t want too much shitty fiat, I’d much rather have the majority of my money in bitcoin.

Many are predicting a flat year or two due to covid but with all the brrrr we could be in for a treat in the short to medium term future.

I’ve been reading that traditional fiat savings acc’s will be paying 0.01% annual interest soon. Maybe negative interest rates will even be introduced.

This time next year things will be a lot clearer.
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September 28, 2020, 03:43:23 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)


Or about not selling at the top.


My gf of 10 years (we are early 30’s - got together young) is currently in the phase of telling me that I ruined ‘our lives by not selling when it was $19,000’.
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September 28, 2020, 03:47:04 PM




You forgot the last image with the caption "7 years later... I'm divorcing you and taking half of your crypto!"

Let her take the crypto. Just don't tell her about the Bitcoin.

Good point (if you class XRP as crypto).

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September 28, 2020, 03:56:21 PM

Haha, brilliant. She’s on board now  Cool
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September 28, 2020, 04:03:44 PM

Haha, brilliant. She’s on board now  Cool

If I had to choose I'd rather get nagged for not selling at the top than about selling your bag way waaay too early.
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September 28, 2020, 04:19:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.
No wonder this got covered a long time ago by somebody here on BTT (gbianchi). I remember I read it back then.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=945881.0
This is it boys, when the supply shortage will hit, expect FOMO. I can personally wait.
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September 28, 2020, 04:26:29 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

Haha, brilliant. She’s on board now  Cool

If I had to choose I'd rather get nagged for not selling at the top than about selling your bag way waaay too early.

My advice is to NOT tell your GF/wife about how much BTC you have. Not easy, but you've got to try to keep it to yourself. Or, at least, be clear about who is in charge of said coins and who makes the decisions.

LFC's 2018 post is infuriating at best. He ruined their lives by not selling when it was $19,000? Really? What is she going to say when it's @ $50,000? Or $250,000? "Oh, you're so smart!" Yeah, thank you.

Love and flowers and romantic dinners are all nice and sweet, but when it comes to BTC, the key holder is the boss and total ruler of it, and no one should mess with his/her coins.

Sorry LFC, I just couldn't resist!
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September 28, 2020, 04:40:30 PM

shilling for ponzi

that s it

Normally I would just ignore you on this thread hv_.
But to insinuate that I somehow get paid by another party for my efforts, is way out of line.
Maybe at the worst case scenario - it's about protecting my bags from people like yourself.
My efforts are in direct contrast, with your shilling propaganda - but you knew that - so there is that.



No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.

This. Grin



That's why you don't tell your wife about your crypto adventures. Ever.

She'll nag about selling your bag way waaay too early forever  Roll Eyes

Actually it's two things you should never let your wife know exactly about. How much money BTC you have, and how much you love her.
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September 28, 2020, 04:41:32 PM




It will be interesting to see the final result.
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September 28, 2020, 04:44:06 PM

No wonder the exchanges' reserves have come down so much this year. Just a couple of million more and we get our supply shortage event.

You said in one sentence what it took me a JJG sort of novella to try to say above. Smiley

Devils in the details, cAPSLOCK.. for those who attempt to develop reading comprehension, which tend to be helpful here on the interwebs.. but frequently, I will deploy images/memes which can be helpful for peeps like you, tooWink  You can thank me later.

Sorry (my condolences to you and your family - they tm)  that you did not understand such details from my post(s), so you boiled it down to merely one of the ideas contained therein (an idea that I did not even mention, therein).  Cry

Sucks to be you.   Tongue
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