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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26384555 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Syke
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October 26, 2020, 12:25:37 AM
Merited by Biodom (1)

Asking for a friend...

If a girl is into you and you realize that this is because of your bitcoin, then she is not a "gold digger", but what?

corn likker
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October 26, 2020, 12:36:07 AM

while i dont see 100k in 2021.

right now today if we matched 2017 we need to be at 78k.

this is base on mining profit.

so I think we could get to 78k by nov 2021.

for me i need 26-30k to be doing well with my mining farm.


IMHO, I see BTC being a bit over or around $20k at the end of 2021. (I can't believe I'm saying only, when I got into BTC Sept 18th, 2013 it was $150).

Anyway, my reasoning is as follows (1) blowback and FUD from the powerful/banker/and vested interests that will try to distract and such on BTC/Crypto...there

is always a 'backlash' in that area (2) Times are tough and they may get worse..thus some will 'reasonably' take some money out of the long term HODL

wallets for real-life issues, again, IMHO. Also, quite frankly if you are a 'huge' whale even taking 5% off your hoard at $20k would be tempting...not a big

deal if you just did so, but if everyone else thinks the same due to the sucky economic times I expect in 2021 it all adds up.

(3) Human nature for the long term HODL'ers to take some profits....and I think $20k for a long term Hodl'er with more BTC than myself will be 'convinced'

to sell some in the coming recession and bad economic times...especially as a hedge, and if he is older than say 55 years old, or so. Again, the economy gets sketchy

what else can you move 24/7 ..as a hedge against, what I expect is a 'sucky' year on the whole economically for the world, in 2021.

(now, am I gonna get beat up on WO for this post!) Smiley Anyway, if I am right on my prediction of dismalness...that is not so bad ..if the 100k in 2021 comes to pass

I'll take the fall on this post then) Smiley

Sketchy...what else can you sell/move but BTC/Crypto 24/7 on a whim of you against the world/universe if 2021 sucks as bad as I suspect.

Brad




That's it, Searing turned "bearish". It's all over now, get your ready bags packed, fits hitting the shan!
Get your tissues, whole lot of tears are coming.




Seems that you have NOT been tuning into the WO frequently enough, PoolMinor.  In essence, Searing has always been a glass half full kind of guy who has been more than willing to spout out pessimistic views while apparently mostly HODLing through the vast majority of it, while complaining the whole time.

There are worse kinds of bear/bulls or whatever might be the proper label for such a HODLer, as the constantly fearing Searing.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

searing had a lot of btc in dec 2017.

I could not convince him to sell even 1 coin. 18000 or 19000 or 18000

And he ended up selling a lot at 3900.

This time around I think he may sell some at 18.

Why would he? It would be the same as selling at 1000 last time around while last time selling at 18-19K made total sense.
I had some corn on exchange, but my target was $28K, so no sell executed at that time.
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October 26, 2020, 12:37:56 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

Highest weekly close since january 8 2018  Cool


My prediction is that we will have an incredible BTFD moment in the next 2-3 weeks.  Grin


/edit

Something like this:

14k --> wick to 11,5k --> slowly creeping to 12,5k --> sideways --> boom
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October 26, 2020, 12:38:48 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

the evening wall report

Another weekly close with bitcoin trading above $13k

Marvelous indeed

There comes a time to pay the piper however and I do believe we are near that point

Local time frames are red hot and in need of some cooling off imho

I would imagine some significant profit taking to happen over the next week at we approach November

Batten down the hatches and get the wind at our backs

Nothing to do but ride it out

#dyor

1h


4h


medium and short fibs
D


deep look at weekly structures and oscillations
W

#stronghands
Searing
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October 26, 2020, 03:36:03 AM

Who missed the bull move to 13k ?

Who sold at the bottom?? Cheesy Cheesy

I have not often sold my Bitcoin in the last 7 years...but when I do "I always' manage to have sold at the bottom. Sad

(hey, it's a gift!) Do this enough, and like 'magic', you will find yourself a Bitcoin Hodl'er before you know it! Smiley

The 'dumbest' move was selling 13 BTC at $3,900.00 then watching it go to like $3,400 and feeling pretty proud of myself

then it goes back up to $13k like now ..then down again..and now back around $13k..so baring health issues....not gonna happen.

I did manage to get 5 BTC back by 'buying' back in much higher than the BTC was worth when I sold it.....so it goes. Sad

Brad


edit: Those 8 BTC I'm still down look kinda 'daunting' to get back now, don't ya know. Sad




I don't understand why people don't understand that with 0.001 BTc in 10 years u could own work force slaves, FOR THEIR ENTIRE LIFE ! Smiley Cheesy Cheesy


Edit: Imagine you having 13000 slaves hand carving in stone to build your own personal pyramid. Smiley

impossibru:
1. 0.001 btc is worth just $10K when btc is at 10mil. each earth inhabitant can have ~0.00278 btc (on average).
2. see #1

U'r a bit thick ... Tongue ... Imagine inflation plz. Smiley a person for the future lives like 100 years on average (lets assume). But 0.001 will not be payment for the year lets say 2031 or 2032... etc... U will actually pay a fraction of that 0.001... They will get 0.00000250 monthly wage or some nonsense like that, depending on what country they live in. But there will be plenty of robots competing for work force in 2030+. And as the years advance deflation kicks in and instead of 0.00000250 corn... they will get even less. Also... the business you will create from their work productivity, you will get most of the corn back from selling their precious "hand crafted-carved stones". Smiley Cheesy Cheesy

or, it turns out that you are wrong and 2030 would be mostly the same as 2019.
inflation, robots...oh, my! are robots inflationary?

   Consider the possibility (probability?) of major grid disruptions or destruction before 2030 due to rapidly changing geo-solar-galactic conditions.  Shit doesn't go straight up forever.  Tech and human population are coming due for a masssive bear market.  Unpopular, I know.

I'm on Syntrhoid (synthetic thyroid...have to take 1 small tasteless pill every day or I will wind down like a clock) only costs me like $200 bucks a year..but if it all

goes to hell like you say, I'd be dead in 6-months on say a massive EMP from a solar flare that blew up all the Transformers anyway...so it is a moot point for me

and other people. I guess that would be 'one way' to take it with me...ie no gold..just me and BTC/Crypto go 'poof' eventually together if the society/grid does not

come back up promptly. Smiley

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October 26, 2020, 03:39:59 AM

while i dont see 100k in 2021.

right now today if we matched 2017 we need to be at 78k.

this is base on mining profit.

so I think we could get to 78k by nov 2021.

for me i need 26-30k to be doing well with my mining farm.


IMHO, I see BTC being a bit over or around $20k at the end of 2021. (I can't believe I'm saying only, when I got into BTC Sept 18th, 2013 it was $150).

Anyway, my reasoning is as follows (1) blowback and FUD from the powerful/banker/and vested interests that will try to distract and such on BTC/Crypto...there

is always a 'backlash' in that area (2) Times are tough and they may get worse..thus some will 'reasonably' take some money out of the long term HODL

wallets for real-life issues, again, IMHO. Also, quite frankly if you are a 'huge' whale even taking 5% off your hoard at $20k would be tempting...not a big

deal if you just did so, but if everyone else thinks the same due to the sucky economic times I expect in 2021 it all adds up.

(3) Human nature for the long term HODL'ers to take some profits....and I think $20k for a long term Hodl'er with more BTC than myself will be 'convinced'

to sell some in the coming recession and bad economic times...especially as a hedge, and if he is older than say 55 years old, or so. Again, the economy gets sketchy

what else can you move 24/7 ..as a hedge against, what I expect is a 'sucky' year on the whole economically for the world, in 2021.

(now, am I gonna get beat up on WO for this post!) Smiley Anyway, if I am right on my prediction of dismalness...that is not so bad ..if the 100k in 2021 comes to pass

I'll take the fall on this post then) Smiley

Sketchy...what else can you sell/move but BTC/Crypto 24/7 on a whim of you against the world/universe if 2021 sucks as bad as I suspect.

Brad




That's it, Searing turned "bearish". It's all over now, get your ready bags packed, fits hitting the shan!
Get your tissues, whole lot of tears are coming.




Seems that you have NOT been tuning into the WO frequently enough, PoolMinor.  In essence, Searing has always been a glass half full kind of guy who has been more than willing to spout out pessimistic views while apparently mostly HODLing through the vast majority of it, while complaining the whole time.

There are worse kinds of bear/bulls or whatever might be the proper label for such a HODLer, as the constantly fearing Searing.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

searing had a lot of btc in dec 2017.

I could not convince him to sell even 1 coin. 18000 or 19000 or 18000

And he ended up selling a lot at 3900.

This time around I think he may sell some at 18.

Why would he? It would be the same as selling at 1000 last time around while last time selling at 18-19K made total sense.
I had some corn on exchange, but my target was $28K, so no sell executed at that time.

Yeah, presently probably would not sell at $18k the BTC but 'damn' my 'altcoins/shitcoins' would be flying out the door that is for sure. Smiley

ie Simplify= "just BTC" Smiley
...
also the sell in 2017 was real world..i'd already retired on crypto so sell some at $3,900 or go back to work for 1 last year..yech

that was not gonna happen ..real life sucks sometimes..anyway so it goes at 18k the forked BTC and altcoins are frigging toast, that is very likely> Smiley


 
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October 26, 2020, 04:42:29 AM

... Hunter Biden OD?  Shocked Shocked

... anyone else hearing that?
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October 26, 2020, 04:51:09 AM

?
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October 26, 2020, 05:48:12 AM

It was inevitable, but i was hoping BTC would be more integrated with the "good guys" first, PayPal is move in the right direction, but would've been great if we had an ETF before getting the pressure from the "bad guys"

There's a few ETF-like things already being publicly traded, like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, but I do agree an actual Bitcoin ETF would be more symbolic. Hopefully all the progress bitcoin has made in permeating the regulatory-sphere won't be unwound by what's going on in Iran. With any luck they'll give BTC a break (they must know its easily traceable) and use something like Monero or Zcash (ok maybe not Zcash).


Or MSTR, traded on the Nasdaq Wink

Disclaimer: They have a conservative 23% now 28% of their market cap allocated to bitcoin, but Bitcoin will fix that over time.
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October 26, 2020, 06:21:56 AM

It's like witnessing a hard-left liberal just minutes after the red pill they just swallowed starting to take effect... the hypocrisy is real
Well, because I believe in flat facts over all, I brought up some documents I typed up on finances on election day 2016 and compared the values to election day 2020.

As of today, my net worth (assets minus liabilities) has doubled in value. Granted bitcoin was at 707 then and is at 13,000 now but every asset class I have is way up.

So... there you go. Unlike Bush, the last 4 years really paid off.

(Edit: I did some more analysis: From 2004 to 2008 my NW didn't do anything. From 2008-2012 it tripled, thanks to some deals I made while the world was ending. From 2012 to 2016 it went up 60%. So 100% from Trump is good for a Republican.)

From your inspiration, I did a quickie assessment of my own situation (using October of each of the years as the measurement point), yet I would not attribute changes in my networth to politics... and I am a bit surprised to look at the numbers, but I think that the last portion of my great luck seems to have been largely attributable to my late 2013 decision to add bitcoin to my invests and to persist with investing in BTC during the past 4 years.  If I were to remove BTC from the assessment and hypothesize having had investing in some other asset class, then 2016 would likely have had looked the same/similar, but 2016 to 2020 would have likely have had been way more flat.

2004 - baseline
2008 - 285% increase
2012 - 301% increase
2016 - 161% increase
2020 - 320% increase

I will concede that the last 16-20 years of my life have been investment portfolio building/appreciation years.. which I would never have had imagined such great overall performance.. seems to have been some luck in there, too.. especially the last 4 years.. as I tried to say above..
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October 26, 2020, 07:08:56 AM

... Hunter Biden OD?  Shocked Shocked

... anyone else hearing that?

Quick google showed nothing; where did you hear/read that?
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October 26, 2020, 07:20:07 AM
Last edit: October 26, 2020, 08:12:20 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

just imagine just 10% of the 345 million PayPal users decided to buy a bitcoin.

oops...  Cheesy

I guess some missed the point Smiley.



We can boycott them. And if we all did : by using, developing and improving the myriad of p2p opensource alternatives, we won't be corralled. Otherwise, just trust them, there is no slaughtering house at the end... it's a fake news conspiracy... Are you sure to want to see the end of the "tunnel"?

34.5 million btc can not be sold. as only 18.5 of 21 are out and mined.

i think many believe the coins sold by exchanges and now paypal don’t exist.

well then there is not much you can do about that.

it is how the big money people of the world will control btc down the road.


This has and will always be the way to fuck with btc.

simply sell coins and trade coins you don’t have.

banks do fractional reserves.  this is what will be done to btc. not in a day or a month but down the road.

I think we close over 13k today. lets see.

Yes... this will be tried and may even have some success; however, one of the powers of bitcoin remains the ability to demand and to obtain direct possession without hardly any of the encumbrances of physicality.

It will take some time for the power of direct possession to be exercised with meaningful and measurable success, even while it remains ongoingly powerful underlying bitcoin dynamic  - and even while some folks enter into 3rd party contracts that undermine such power dynamics.. the power dynamics are still there.. ready to be realized by those willing to realize such power.


Total marketcap is going higher. highest for the year. Means money is coming. New investors are joining to crypto market. Cool



Or it means there are more coins every day, and perhaps fewer sellers.

I don't know why we would give any shits about the performance of some amorphous term, such as crypto in this here bitcoin thread...

What the fuck does that have to do with bitcoin, exactly?  Can you (yslyv) at least delineate bitcoin from within that vague/amorphous "crypto" concept?.. compare, contrast, something that involves bitcoin..? and real bitcoin.. that is..


If you were not here during 2013 or 2017 bull markets: current #bitcoin price rise is just a small taste of what's next (weekly RSI in 70-90 range). We haven't even started!

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1320396880929579008?s=20

$150,000 or more before 2022 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

$150,000 $240,000 or more before 2022 2026 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

$150,000 $500,000 or more before 2022 2030 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

$150,000 $1,000,000 or more before 2022 2034 & it’s going to be fucking glorious.

Never sell all your Bitcoin but if you want taking some profits prefer selling at each 4-year cycle high.

Interesting, Paashaas.

More or less a doubling of value, every four years...

Interestanting!!

 Wink Wink
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October 26, 2020, 07:48:59 AM
Merited by Icygreen (1)

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/654321
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October 26, 2020, 08:00:04 AM

... Hunter Biden OD?  Shocked Shocked

... anyone else hearing that?

Quick google showed nothing; where did you hear/read that?

Voices
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October 26, 2020, 08:19:34 AM
Last edit: October 26, 2020, 08:42:28 AM by JayJuanGee

Who missed the bull move to 13k ?

Who sold at the bottom?? Cheesy Cheesy

I have not often sold my Bitcoin in the last 7 years...but when I do "I always' manage to have sold at the bottom. Sad

(hey, it's a gift!) Do this enough, and like 'magic', you will find yourself a Bitcoin Hodl'er before you know it! Smiley

The 'dumbest' move was selling 13 BTC at $3,900.00 then watching it go to like $3,400 and feeling pretty proud of myself

then it goes back up to $13k like now ..then down again..and now back around $13k..so baring health issues....not gonna happen.

I did manage to get 5 BTC back by 'buying' back in much higher than the BTC was worth when I sold it.....so it goes. Sad

Brad


edit: Those 8 BTC I'm still down look kinda 'daunting' to get back now, don't ya know. Sad

Yep...

surely difficult to make up for those kinds of sales.

You did much better than mindrust, especially since you sold less than 15% of your stash and you were able to bring that back to less than 10% of your stash.. and think about mindrust selling 100% of his stash, and maybe he bought back 10%.. maybe?  And if so, at a pretty BIG loss, no?  And, the BIGGER loss for mindrust was failing to buy back and to suck up some of the losses.

Each of us should attempt to learn from these kinds of circumstances  in order to be careful in how we manage our portfolios while attempting to preserve principle and NOT getting too aggressive in our approach to such matter(s).

[edited out]

searing had a lot of btc in dec 2017.

I could not convince him to sell even 1 coin. 18000 or 19000 or 18000

And he ended up selling a lot at 3900.

This time around I think he may sell some at 18.

I agree that it tends to be a bit more prudent to shave a bit off along the way up, and the amount of the shavings and the locations for the shavings will likely vary from person to person and also depending on context...

Regarding $18k?  I am not sure if that would be a prudent location to make any shavings.. even though I have been ready, willing and able to shave a bit off all the way since $250 (in late 2015) to present prices.. but that is me... and my situation is different, in part because of the way that I structured my situation from the start.. which was a creation of bitcoin surplus by causing actual physical bitcoin surplus which also created a kind of psychological feeling of bitcoin surplus, too that really then allows for such ongoing shavenings without worrying about engaging in such ongoing shavenings.

[edited out]

searing had a lot of btc in dec 2017.

I could not convince him to sell even 1 coin. 18000 or 19000 or 18000

And he ended up selling a lot at 3900.

This time around I think he may sell some at 18.

Why would he? It would be the same as selling at 1000 last time around while last time selling at 18-19K made total sense.
I had some corn on exchange, but my target was $28K, so no sell executed at that time.

Yes..... consider this, too.  times have changed.   Wink Wink

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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October 26, 2020, 08:24:08 AM

So I guess you haven't noticed the following



photoshopped but still
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October 26, 2020, 09:12:07 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

It's like witnessing a hard-left liberal just minutes after the red pill they just swallowed starting to take effect... the hypocrisy is real
Well, because I believe in flat facts over all, I brought up some documents I typed up on finances on election day 2016 and compared the values to election day 2020.

As of today, my net worth (assets minus liabilities) has doubled in value. Granted bitcoin was at 707 then and is at 13,000 now but every asset class I have is way up.

So... there you go. Unlike Bush, the last 4 years really paid off.

(Edit: I did some more analysis: From 2004 to 2008 my NW didn't do anything. From 2008-2012 it tripled, thanks to some deals I made while the world was ending. From 2012 to 2016 it went up 60%. So 100% from Trump is good for a Republican.)

From your inspiration, I did a quickie assessment of my own situation (using October of each of the years as the measurement point), yet I would not attribute changes in my networth to politics... and I am a bit surprised to look at the numbers, but I think that the last portion of my great luck seems to have been largely attributable to my late 2013 decision to add bitcoin to my invests and to persist with investing in BTC during the past 4 years.  If I were to remove BTC from the assessment and hypothesize having had investing in some other asset class, then 2016 would likely have had looked the same/similar, but 2016 to 2020 would have likely have had been way more flat.

2004 - baseline
2008 - 285% increase
2012 - 301% increase
2016 - 161% increase
2020 - 320% increase

I will concede that the last 16-20 years of my life have been investment portfolio building/appreciation years.. which I would never have had imagined such great overall performance.. seems to have been some luck in there, too.. especially the last 4 years.. as I tried to say above..


those are solid figures, congrats

my case it is an example of an bitcoin-only investment:

invested in btc in 2013.

2013-2016: 1000% increase
2016-2020: 1000% increase

overall it was a 100x on investment via buying and hodling.

the only other time I tried to invest was me buying internet stocks a few weeks before the Dotcom bubble burst. after a few weeks I had managed to turn €10k in €1k thanks to my immaculate timing.

bitcoin only investment is putting all eggs in one basket. it was very risky and it felt terrible. I was over invested in bitcoin for 7 years in a row and I had to pay the toll for it.  it induced panic selling at the lows, it made my hair turn grey, it caused oh-so-many sleepless nights. the stress this strategy put on me was such a burden that more than once I thought about quitting bitcoin despite the gains. financially this strategy worked very well but I am not sure if I can recommend it.

if one thinks this might be the only chance of ever escaping the rat-race, this cannot be done without risk. it cannot be done incrementally. you pull the trigger or not.

will bitcoin do another 10x? I believe so. will it do another 50x? yes, I think it will. will it do another 100x, reaching $1mil per coin? yes, I think it is possible that bitcoin will reach the levels by the end of the decade.

a $10k investment in bitcoin today can become $1mil within 10 years.

to some extend fiat inflation will be the reason for those insane prices. but I refer to "asset-price-inflation", which is already taking place big time and this trend will only accelerate. but I am not talking about a $1mil price for bitcoin in a world where a loaf of bread costs $1000k.
 
asset price inflation will continue, but $1mil per coin is possible even in a world where the price of bread will have doubled or tripled in the next decade.
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October 26, 2020, 09:30:34 AM

Who missed the bull move to 13k ?

Who sold at the bottom?? Cheesy Cheesy

I have not often sold my Bitcoin in the last 7 years...but when I do "I always' manage to have sold at the bottom. Sad

(hey, it's a gift!) Do this enough, and like 'magic', you will find yourself a Bitcoin Hodl'er before you know it! Smiley

The 'dumbest' move was selling 13 BTC at $3,900.00 then watching it go to like $3,400 and feeling pretty proud of myself

then it goes back up to $13k like now ..then down again..and now back around $13k..so baring health issues....not gonna happen.

I did manage to get 5 BTC back by 'buying' back in much higher than the BTC was worth when I sold it.....so it goes. Sad

Brad


edit: Those 8 BTC I'm still down look kinda 'daunting' to get back now, don't ya know. Sad

Yep...

surely difficult to make up for those kinds of sales.

You did much better than mindrust, especially since you sold less than 15% of your stash and you were able to bring that back to less than 10% of your stash.. and think about mindrust selling 100% of his stash, and maybe he bought back 10%.. maybe?  And if so, at a pretty BIG loss, no?  And, the BIGGER loss for mindrust was failing to buy back and to suck up some of the losses.

[...]



Just a funny thought: That 1 out of 10 bitcoins Mindrust bought back might one day easily exceed the dollar value of those 10 bitcoins panic sold during the March 2020 ‘coronadip’.
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October 26, 2020, 09:52:29 AM

... Hunter Biden OD?  Shocked Shocked

... anyone else hearing that?

No.

Where on earth did you get that idea from?

https://mericanow.com/2020/10/26/is-hunter-biden-dead-from-a-drug-overdose/

... here's one but it's like an alternate reality now with Google/Twitter/FB being under ChiCom control under Biden gets elected ... searches are blocked/filtered, posts disappear, etcc ... it's lies, lies, lies and like we've all suddenly started living beyond the fucking Great communist firewall
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October 26, 2020, 10:07:10 AM
Merited by savetherainforest (1)



Maybe we could have a whip-round* for her.





*not that sort of whip-round you disgusting ogres, I'm on a be nice to weird wimmin kick, the sort where we all chip in some money. real hard money.




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