Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[icopress]

Wall Observer's gang don't play poker? / Bitcointalk Poker series Discussion Thread

[marcus_of_augustus]

Saylor actually goes into quite a lot of detail on this topic in the stream he just did with Dan Held -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPYt_Z9lYlM

Key takeaway is that he feels his evangelism is the best way he can boost the value of Bitcoin as a network - rather than putting money into mining or creating Bitcoin related businesses, he can inject value directly into the ecosystem by being a pioneer and a damn vocal one at that. Use whatever resources you have to build up the network and ecosystem, for some people that's leveraging cheap utility costs and creating mining farms, others that it is offering custody solutions or ETFs, etc etc. He doesn't see himself as being able to do these things better than others, so he sticks with what he has the most efficiency at doing - a vocal shout of "HODL!" to lead the way for those who don't have the platform to express it themselves.

I've probably summed it up badly, but that's the general gist of it!

Good find and your summary is about right. Also confirms what I was supposing about his strategy, (more macro than micro    ) ...

... for all the hype about paypal (it's a big nothing-burger), the Microstrategy move is orders of magnitude more important, quantifiably more significant (poor people don't have money to move around, bitcoin adoption comes about through money not users, etc, etc)).

Not just that Saylor is running point and giving money-managers, corporate treasurers, hedge-funds, etc the template he's also providing vocal cover and expounding a logical basis (long term yield vs. risk) for how to escape the fed's gilded cage of 0.5% (soon going negative) yield in extreme risk assets ... he specifically says he's not going to be buying old-man buffet's junk  

To confirm this also WSJ is running hit-piece today against Saylor's move, likely to try and throw shade so as to discourage other renegades from escaping the fiat asylum that he now is blazing a trail for real money to flow into bitcoin  ...

Go Saylor, Go bitcoin.

WSJ trashing Saylor bitcoin move

[philipma1957]

Saylor actually goes into quite a lot of detail on this topic in the stream he just did with Dan Held -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPYt_Z9lYlM

Key takeaway is that he feels his evangelism is the best way he can boost the value of Bitcoin as a network - rather than putting money into mining or creating Bitcoin related businesses, he can inject value directly into the ecosystem by being a pioneer and a damn vocal one at that. Use whatever resources you have to build up the network and ecosystem, for some people that's leveraging cheap utility costs and creating mining farms, others that it is offering custody solutions or ETFs, etc etc. He doesn't see himself as being able to do these things better than others, so he sticks with what he has the most efficiency at doing - a vocal shout of "HODL!" to lead the way for those who don't have the platform to express it themselves.

I've probably summed it up badly, but that's the general gist of it!

Good find and your summary is about right. Also confirms what I was supposing about his strategy, (more macro than micro  ) ...

... for all the hype about paypal (it's a big nothing-burger), the Microstrategy move is orders of magnitude more important, quantifiably more significant (poor people don't have money to move around, bitcoin adoption comes about through money not users, etc, etc)).

Not just that Saylor is running point and giving money-managers, corporate treasurers, hedge-funds, etc the template he's also providing vocal cover and expounding a logical basis (long term yield vs. risk) for how to escape the fed's gilded cage of 0.5% (soon going negative) yield in extreme risk assets ... he specifically says he's not going to be buying old-man buffet's junk 

To confirm this also WSJ is running hit-piece today against Saylor's move, likely to try and throw shade so as to discourage other renegades from escaping the fiat asylum that he now is blazing a trail for real money to flow into bitcoin  ...

Go Saylor, Go bitcoin.

WSJ trashing Saylor bitcoin move

Can't read it they want me to sign in.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Can't read it they want me to sign in.

... ok.

[icopress]

As far as I know, the post count and sig in this thread are disabled for obvious reasons ... I posted several messages here, but changed the topic of the dialogue (and I see that posts were included in the stats of account). How does this rule work?

[icopress]

Changed: Added source https://www.dietmareckell.com/Continuation of the collection: Part II ^offtopic... / Abandoned military sites: Part I

• Thai army tanks on a ship in the port of Bangkok

• The sinking of a Chinese T-69 tank in the Gulf of Thailand. The discarded Tanks became artificial reefs in the marine ecosystem of the bay.

• Equipment involved in the liquidation of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

• Aircraft graveyard, in the United States in the city of Tucson.

• Decommissioned aircraft carrier 38 km off the coast of Pensacola, Florida

• It took 37 minutes for the 270-meter vessel to sink completely under the water.

• The location is unknown. Photo by Dietmar Eckell

• On December 24, 1994, the Russian cruiser "Murmansk" got away from the tugs during towing and sank near a small village on the northern coast of Norway.

[philipma1957]

Block 654818 fees 3.25 coins
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/000000000000000000043eae5aef08739ec0ec63b968f309d9513ac17c7b38df

Block 654817 fees 3.22 coins
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/0000000000000000000d6c1d59f722ec0d4c937eb75550cba24ccc19656f18e4

Block 654816 fees 3.00 coins
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/000000000000000000091f83a4f5dd7224b8dc6909ec3210326dc8525451069a

https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block:   654818  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.1691%  (1635 / 1919.71 expected, 284.71 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   19298087186262.61                            
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11

                          
Next Difficulty:   between 17057082561709 and 17147130332651
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.7032% and -14.2529%

Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 7:00 PM  (in 3d 0h 28m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 9:05 PM  (in 3d 2h 33m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 8h 25m 10s and 16d 10h 30m 33s

...

Pushing 15%  we may have a 17 day jump if this continues closer to 18%

prices are 13,600+

To all BTC purists above is why I wrote my signature the way I did.

2 quick moves and the entire btc network is now clogged with insane fees.

WHAT  could help this problem hmm that guy with 17k btc can do an off book to PayPal and PayPal can sell btc with little or no fees.

This is what BTC purists are up against.

Or my signature could be used.

Ie move the coin on doge or ltc networks.

The big boys are setting something up.

[JayJuanGee]

  ...... [edited out].........
– 6. It was foolish of me to disclose my BTC holdings to certain people.
 ...... [edited out].........

 Just a note. I too 'regret' #6..but in hindsight it was worth so little in 2013 and I had so little that by the time I had some...well ..not big deal everyone can see how

 much now..just google bitcointalk.org Searing and BTC Hodl is probably all it would take for me or any other 2013 or around there adopter.

I also like how, when the topic does come up, how some people remember ME blowing them off about Bitcoin questions....and I remember a lot of 'your an idiot' and

'taunting' thus making real conversations difficult for those who have not got any BTC even now.

It's difficult to NOT reveal at least some details, especially when they do not seem to be vry important - but later become more important...

One thing with the passage of time you do not need to continue to confirm because you can say:  "that was then."   You can also engage in conduct to provide disinformation, too... without saying what amounts are disinformation and which amounts are not...

Those are not lies that matter - because many of us deserve some rights to our privacy, especially if our safety could come into question... or even just there can be other kinds of problems when people know things that they really do not need to know.

Regarding selective memory... surely, people are likely to have differing memories of events and evn emphasizing different parts of the memory that may or may not matter at a future point in time.  This can be another issue of each of us deciding how we would like to spin such memories (past events) - whether true or not and whether anyone else has any rights to you providing a different spin or not.

I think a lot of HODL'ers, especially older, will crack around $20k a lot could sell 1/2 of hodl'ings from back in the day they mined for 1/2 million dollars or more. The wife real life issues, health issues, older, I think a lot will 'crack' and sell at that point. Thus myself I'd be beyond shocked if we were 'steady' above $25k next year, until that kinda thing 'shakes itself out' ...the closer society starts to take this as 'real $$$' the more likely REAL LIFE issues will cause some or a lot of HODL'ers to sell..espcieally if they got into this at say $100 a BTC or some such. I hope I'm dead wrong, and it is more like a Rancher by Reno, NV saying 'screw it' keeping the Ranch. But I'll put that out here on Bitcointalk on the hope I'm really, really, wrong..but how I'm calling it for future praise or mockery.

Yes, I agree that you have a tendency to put unnecessary pessimistic spins to suggest that this time is different, when you really have hardly any evidence to establish that this time is different, beyond pure speculation that is shrouded by pessimism.

Accordingly, similar statements were made about all the folks who would be selling at the previous ATH of $1k, and it did not happen.  Sure, some people sold, but they largely got fucked because we were not in deadman's zone for very long.. and even some of those folks were hoping, in 2018 and 2019, to buy back cheap coins that they sold in early 2017 for in the neighborhood of $1k.. were not even able to get in for under $3k... .. and too bad so sad that they sold way too many coins too soon.. and I have no reason to believe that this time is going to be much different in terms of a need to be careful in buying into nonsense theories about all the BTC HODLrs who just cannot wait to get rid of their coins in the deadman's zone of about $17,250 to $23,500.  Not too bright to be selling much if any coins in that price range... even if you have some lame theory that there are peeps just eager as fuck to get out "at a profit."

[jojo69]

[marcus_of_augustus]

... who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

[JimboToronto]

who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

Count me in.

[explorer]

who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

Count me in.

Oohh  That's a good one!

MMMF!


Moo Moo Motherfuckers

[savetherainforest]

• The sinking of a Chinese T-69 tank in the Gulf of Thailand. The discarded Tanks became artificial reefs in the marine ecosystem of the bay.

The ocean will get lead poisoning from all these rusty tanks, planes and ships we keep throwing in it.

[Searing]

Yeah, about Brad's post...

... Also in 2013 my 'banker' sic'd the SEC on me due to Bitcoin being 'evil' and drug money and all. With a speaker phone

on with SEC guy, when I brought reciept of BTC purchase and their error of I spent $99,999.99 (i mean really, you can't catch such a bank error?) The banker THEN

tried to jack me up with the SEC guy on the phone and say I obviously did not do my taxes on Bitcoin. I antipated the asshole and slapped my completed 2013 by CPA

(revised for the new Bitcoin rules) down and called  him an asshole.

The SEC guy through speaker phone was like 'why am I here? Anyway, some of you have heard this story, but

this illlustrates how far Bitcoin has come since 2013! ...

Brad

You are a very forgiving person if that banker did not end up with at least a  broken nose out of the deal.
There are taddle or snitch rewards when the IRS collects on tax evaders.   Maybe that is what he was hoping for...

a broken nose is what he deserved (deserves).

Shoulda/coulda/wooda....but I was so....frigging relieved....I had already done taxes that year..then the IRS 14 days or something before the April deadline...put

the 'current' crytpo rules into play..that apply to mining etc, etc. Before that point the CPA said, did you spend any you mined? I went NOPE. So no taxes.

The of course the 2014 rules that applied all the way back to 2009 and cap gains, etc we see today. So I walked out of the bank, figuring I was gonna owe like

$4,000 on my US Taxes, and I was 'damn happy' about it. They could have really, really hung me up by my short hairs on this..except for the obvious bank

reciept error. So anyway...went back again, to the CPA and she re-did all again, and said I owed nothing due to my equipment and purchase in that I mined

the BTC...so, it was a wash either way. I also found out the difference between a regular bank (TCF..a midwest bank) and a Commercial Bank..changed all

my accounts (but $100 so I could keep my inflated, due to 2007 crash $30k home equity line of credit I got in a 'waived' fee ..saved like $1.2k on refinance

when the economy tanked on that promotion). But the comercial banker folk laughed their ass off on this story..they had a couple more on how the bank

in question could not do wire xfers (I told them that also was my story...took a month to fix)....so I learned that you go to a commercial bank and such probably

regional version is better...they are not as clueless. But yeah, I should have at 'least' faked bumping into his ass, and swept his feet...as he kept trying to 'poke' me with

his finger and not really pulling it off. He sure looked stupid infront of his employees and the SEC guy that is for sure. He really, really tried to toss me under the IRS bus

to re-coup his error. But yeah, in 2013, if you mentioned the dreaded Bitcoin..you was a drug dealer finacier. However, the week before the SEC call and such, which

gave me time to go full CPA, when I went into the bank, 2 times in the period. It was kinda cool, in that everyone looked at me like I was John Dillinger and would

'whisper' and look at me like I was gonna 'rob' the place. Was Chilly, Chilly, Chilly!

That is as close to being and 'evil mastermind' that I will ever attain. But yeah, in the midwest, folks really, really, bought the drug money hype in 2014.

lesson learned

Brad

[Searing]

 ...... [edited out].........
– 6. It was foolish of me to disclose my BTC holdings to certain people.
 ...... [edited out].........

 Just a note. I too 'regret' #6..but in hindsight it was worth so little in 2013 and I had so little that by the time I had some...well ..not big deal everyone can see how

 much now..just google bitcointalk.org Searing and BTC Hodl is probably all it would take for me or any other 2013 or around there adopter.

I also like how, when the topic does come up, how some people remember ME blowing them off about Bitcoin questions....and I remember a lot of 'your an idiot' and

'taunting' thus making real conversations difficult for those who have not got any BTC even now.

It's difficult to NOT reveal at least some details, especially when they do not seem to be vry important - but later become more important...

One thing with the passage of time you do not need to continue to confirm because you can say:  "that was then."   You can also engage in conduct to provide disinformation, too... without saying what amounts are disinformation and which amounts are not...

Those are not lies that matter - because many of us deserve some rights to our privacy, especially if our safety could come into question... or even just there can be other kinds of problems when people know things that they really do not need to know.

Regarding selective memory... surely, people are likely to have differing memories of events and evn emphasizing different parts of the memory that may or may not matter at a future point in time.  This can be another issue of each of us deciding how we would like to spin such memories (past events) - whether true or not and whether anyone else has any rights to you providing a different spin or not.

I think a lot of HODL'ers, especially older, will crack around $20k a lot could sell 1/2 of hodl'ings from back in the day they mined for 1/2 million dollars or more. The wife real life issues, health issues, older, I think a lot will 'crack' and sell at that point. Thus myself I'd be beyond shocked if we were 'steady' above $25k next year, until that kinda thing 'shakes itself out' ...the closer society starts to take this as 'real $$$' the more likely REAL LIFE issues will cause some or a lot of HODL'ers to sell..espcieally if they got into this at say $100 a BTC or some such. I hope I'm dead wrong, and it is more like a Rancher by Reno, NV saying 'screw it' keeping the Ranch. But I'll put that out here on Bitcointalk on the hope I'm really, really, wrong..but how I'm calling it for future praise or mockery.

Yes, I agree that you have a tendency to put unnecessary pessimistic spins to suggest that this time is different, when you really have hardly any evidence to establish that this time is different, beyond pure speculation that is shrouded by pessimism.

Accordingly, similar statements were made about all the folks who would be selling at the previous ATH of $1k, and it did not happen.  Sure, some people sold, but they largely got fucked because we were not in deadman's zone for very long.. and even some of those folks were hoping, in 2018 and 2019, to buy back cheap coins that they sold in early 2017 for in the neighborhood of $1k.. were not even able to get in for under $3k... .. and too bad so sad that they sold way too many coins too soon.. and I have no reason to believe that this time is going to be much different in terms of a need to be careful in buying into nonsense theories about all the BTC HODLrs who just cannot wait to get rid of their coins in the deadman's zone of about $17,250 to $23,500.  Not too bright to be selling much if any coins in that price range... even if you have some lame theory that there are peeps just eager as fuck to get out "at a profit."

yes..I'm just 'tossing' a guess out there with the $18k mark or some such. This is however IS based in 'some' fact...when watching Bitcoin in the Summer of 2013

while waiting for my miner, it seems a 'lot' of folks that a year previously that were getting their BTC mined for pennies on the $$$ 'cracked' that summer and took

their Million USD instead when it got to the 'insane' $64 usd price. Much 'lamenting' on BFL Chat Room and other places of how they screwed up in the Fall let me

tell you..but I see the same 'possibility' of 'too far' and 'too fast' ... I mean if you got like those guys the 'majority' of your coin on a CPU at less than a buck..well..

$64 looked pretty insane.. I think BTC was already like $11 bucks in Jan of 2013 as well. So that is my 'guess' of a cracking point...once the 'weak hands' lets call

it that, were to wash out..then my 'guess' would be you might not see such again till 80k or 100k Bitcoin. But much 'wrestling' with the fact with these 'whales'

back in 2013..the 'insane' pump in Bitcoin Price and it had to be a bubble. I just see the stressors now as the same at about 18K and 20K...hell, damn, I'm will

be tempted as such, and I'm retired and NOT living on my crypto anymore (unlike when I retired in Jan 2018) ..thus...I can imagine pressures of job/wife/money

here 7 years later with that kinda growth..getting to anyone. Also all I say, if I am unclear, I am 'clueless' ..I rant, I rave, I say this, I say what if this happens..it has

about as much continuity as calling a race at a Greyhound Track....but my 'guess' and observations were, from back in the day..way back newbie days...that $60 or

around 5x the price from Jan 2013, I seem to think a lot of folk were dumping in chat groups and taking the usd and running..it happened again at 1k later that year

then the panic dumps...then at ..IMHO..guess..just as big at 10K up / down the times it has bounced there so long since 2013....and now my next guess is it will

again happen at around $18K TO $20K..even if it is 'just' a little 'pruning' of say 5% of the portfolio as a 'real-life-is-weird-in-2020-pandemic-hedge. Thus it will

add up and 'soften' the curve up into 2021...again, my frigging guess. Which along with 50c will buy you a can of soda...means zip.

Anyway, tossing it out there for 'ammo' in the future and people can call me on it ...as being wrong..on my hope too that I am dead, frigging wrong.

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

[hisslyness]

 ...... [edited out].........
– 6. It was foolish of me to disclose my BTC holdings to certain people.
 ...... [edited out].........

 Just a note. I too 'regret' #6..but in hindsight it was worth so little in 2013 and I had so little that by the time I had some...well ..not big deal everyone can see how

 much now..just google bitcointalk.org Searing and BTC Hodl is probably all it would take for me or any other 2013 or around there adopter.

I also like how, when the topic does come up, how some people remember ME blowing them off about Bitcoin questions....and I remember a lot of 'your an idiot' and

'taunting' thus making real conversations difficult for those who have not got any BTC even now.

It's difficult to NOT reveal at least some details, especially when they do not seem to be vry important - but later become more important...

One thing with the passage of time you do not need to continue to confirm because you can say:  "that was then."   You can also engage in conduct to provide disinformation, too... without saying what amounts are disinformation and which amounts are not...

Those are not lies that matter - because many of us deserve some rights to our privacy, especially if our safety could come into question... or even just there can be other kinds of problems when people know things that they really do not need to know.

Regarding selective memory... surely, people are likely to have differing memories of events and evn emphasizing different parts of the memory that may or may not matter at a future point in time.  This can be another issue of each of us deciding how we would like to spin such memories (past events) - whether true or not and whether anyone else has any rights to you providing a different spin or not.

I think a lot of HODL'ers, especially older, will crack around $20k a lot could sell 1/2 of hodl'ings from back in the day they mined for 1/2 million dollars or more. The wife real life issues, health issues, older, I think a lot will 'crack' and sell at that point. Thus myself I'd be beyond shocked if we were 'steady' above $25k next year, until that kinda thing 'shakes itself out' ...the closer society starts to take this as 'real $$$' the more likely REAL LIFE issues will cause some or a lot of HODL'ers to sell..espcieally if they got into this at say $100 a BTC or some such. I hope I'm dead wrong, and it is more like a Rancher by Reno, NV saying 'screw it' keeping the Ranch. But I'll put that out here on Bitcointalk on the hope I'm really, really, wrong..but how I'm calling it for future praise or mockery.

Yes, I agree that you have a tendency to put unnecessary pessimistic spins to suggest that this time is different, when you really have hardly any evidence to establish that this time is different, beyond pure speculation that is shrouded by pessimism.

Accordingly, similar statements were made about all the folks who would be selling at the previous ATH of $1k, and it did not happen.  Sure, some people sold, but they largely got fucked because we were not in deadman's zone for very long.. and even some of those folks were hoping, in 2018 and 2019, to buy back cheap coins that they sold in early 2017 for in the neighborhood of $1k.. were not even able to get in for under $3k... .. and too bad so sad that they sold way too many coins too soon.. and I have no reason to believe that this time is going to be much different in terms of a need to be careful in buying into nonsense theories about all the BTC HODLrs who just cannot wait to get rid of their coins in the deadman's zone of about $17,250 to $23,500.  Not too bright to be selling much if any coins in that price range... even if you have some lame theory that there are peeps just eager as fuck to get out "at a profit."

yes..I'm just 'tossing' a guess out there with the $18k mark or some such. This is however IS based in 'some' fact...when watching Bitcoin in the Summer of 2013

while waiting for my miner, it seems a 'lot' of folks that a year previously that were getting their BTC mined for pennies on the $$$ 'cracked' that summer and took

their Million USD instead when it got to the 'insane' $64 usd price. Much 'lamenting' on BFL Chat Room and other places of how they screwed up in the Fall let me

tell you..but I see the same 'possibility' of 'too far' and 'too fast' ... I mean if you got like those guys the 'majority' of your coin on a CPU at less than a buck..well..

$64 looked pretty insane.. I think BTC was already like $11 bucks in Jan of 2013 as well. So that is my 'guess' of a cracking point...once the 'weak hands' lets call

it that, were to wash out..then my 'guess' would be you might not see such again till 80k or 100k Bitcoin. But much 'wrestling' with the fact with these 'whales'

back in 2013..the 'insane' pump in Bitcoin Price and it had to be a bubble. I just see the stressors now as the same at about 18K and 20K...hell, damn, I'm will

be tempted as such, and I'm retired and NOT living on my crypto anymore (unlike when I retired in Jan 2018) ..thus...I can imagine pressures of job/wife/money

here 7 years later with that kinda growth..getting to anyone. Also all I say, if I am unclear, I am 'clueless' ..I rant, I rave, I say this, I say what if this happens..it has

about as much continuity as calling a race at a Greyhound Track....but my 'guess' and observations were, from back in the day..way back newbie days...that $60 or

around 5x the price from Jan 2013, I seem to think a lot of folk were dumping in chat groups and taking the usd and running..it happened again at 1k later that year

then the panic dumps...then at ..IMHO..guess..just as big at 10K up / down the times it has bounced there so long since 2013....and now my next guess is it will

again happen at around $18K TO $20K..even if it is 'just' a little 'pruning' of say 5% of the portfolio as a 'real-life-is-weird-in-2020-pandemic-hedge. Thus it will

add up and 'soften' the curve up into 2021...again, my frigging guess. Which along with 50c will buy you a can of soda...means zip.

Anyway, tossing it out there for 'ammo' in the future and people can call me on it ...as being wrong..on my hope too that I am dead, frigging wrong.

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

I agree many will start to prune and shave their stash. I don't think there is issue with sharing up to 5% of your hodl in the this cycle.

Until we have supermarkets/petrol stations/restaurants accepting Bitcoin, we all need to live and enjoy the benefits Bitcoin has brought.

Side note: Unconfirmed Transaction is hovering around 120,000 -130,000. Starting to feel like May-2017 lead up to the Christmas ATH...

[lightfoot]

So I should fire up a miner to help this logjam?

[Toxic2040]

As far as I know, the post count and sig in this thread are disabled for obvious reasons ... I posted several messages here, but changed the topic of the dialogue (and I see that posts were included in the stats of account). How does this rule work?

most around here dont give 2 sats for meta thankfully..  as far as your question goes, rules seem to be kept at a minimum here..again thankfully

afaik not being a dick to others seems to be the most prevalent

you can re all you want.. I dont think anybody cares

 

-------

I've gotta work tomorrow so I want to wish everyone happy Halloween a day early!



Make sure you disinfect those treats

happy all hollows eve!


------

+1 WOsMerit


------

... who's ready for 13.88? ... and onwards to 14k+ who know's where ...

+1 WOsMerit





-------

-snip-

But hey, it may be a crummy position..but at least I'm  'hodl'ing' too it!

(I'm such a twit..er I mean wit..really I meant wit! Damn it! I meant wit!.   wanders off....kicks a 'throw pillow' at the cat...mumbling to self.)

Brad

 


-------

#dyor
1h

#stronghands

[tranthidung]

Hi WO gang,

Have a beautiful weekend and enjoy the bull run of BTC.

Today, I come back with another analysis, this time for Bitcoin block size and transaction fee (in satoshi/ kB or USD). Enjoy!

ABSTRACT

• The network conditions are reflected by block size that in turn causes fee is high or low. The median value of daily block size in October is above 1.23 MB.
• In 2020 so far, the median of daily block size is 1.27 MB
• October is the month with transaction size are stable around 1.27 MB (see box plot with vertical line, box, whisker and raw results). In median, the latest 3 months (August - October) have same value at 1.27 MB
• In differences (%) between median of fee (in specific day to all days in 2020), people are paying more expensive fees in October: around 508% (in satoshis) or 20224% (in USD).
• The medians (all days in 2020) of fee per kB are 32467.2 satoshi or 0.1 USD
• In the last 3 months, more people accept higher fees that reflects by narrower gaps between differences of max - median and p75 - median (see plot)
• In median of daily max fee: people tend to accept 10⁺ USD for each kB in October. However, October is not the highest month, it is a third one instead. The 2 highest months are May and August. Reminder is outliers in October (latest days) are much higher than outliers in May or August.
• In median of daily daily median fee: people tend to accept 5 ⁺ USD for each kB in October and it is the third highest month, after May and August. The same data interpretation for outliers.

Time series plots

Block size in MB (it is after I calculated medians for daily block size).

Code:

Summary for variables: sizeMB
     by categories of: month

    month |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   2020m1 |     31.00      1.13      0.17      1.21      1.05      1.22      0.51      1.26
   2020m2 |     29.00      1.23      0.04      1.24      1.21      1.26      1.13      1.28
   2020m3 |     31.00      1.21      0.10      1.25      1.22      1.27      0.85      1.33
   2020m4 |     30.00      1.19      0.12      1.23      1.17      1.26      0.79      1.30
   2020m5 |     31.00      1.29      0.03      1.28      1.27      1.31      1.22      1.36
   2020m6 |     30.00      1.23      0.12      1.27      1.24      1.29      0.78      1.33
   2020m7 |     31.00      1.27      0.04      1.28      1.27      1.30      1.12      1.35
   2020m8 |     31.00      1.29      0.02      1.29      1.27      1.31      1.25      1.34
   2020m9 |     30.00      1.28      0.04      1.29      1.27      1.31      1.15      1.39
  2020m10 |     29.00      1.29      0.02      1.29      1.28      1.30      1.23      1.35
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |    303.00      1.24      0.10      1.27      1.23      1.29      0.51      1.39
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Block size (for all blocks in 2020). I don't calculate daily median for this one.

Code:

Summary for variables: size
     by categories of: m

        m |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   2020m1 |   4737.00 974062.11 440761.55  1.19e+06 637357.00  1.29e+06    244.00  2.21e+06
   2020m2 |   4154.00  1.10e+06 381206.27  1.24e+06  1.05e+06  1.32e+06    293.00  2.28e+06
   2020m3 |   4255.00  1.10e+06 384647.89  1.24e+06  1.06e+06  1.32e+06    244.00  2.14e+06
   2020m4 |   4513.00  1.08e+06 390384.36  1.22e+06  1.05e+06  1.30e+06    244.00  2.42e+06
   2020m5 |   4192.00  1.27e+06 225990.99  1.28e+06  1.20e+06  1.36e+06    280.00  2.07e+06
   2020m6 |   4549.00  1.15e+06 373225.21  1.26e+06  1.13e+06  1.34e+06    244.00  2.20e+06
   2020m7 |   4589.00  1.23e+06 285914.06  1.28e+06  1.20e+06  1.35e+06    244.00  2.29e+06
   2020m8 |   4521.00  1.28e+06 230549.31  1.29e+06  1.21e+06  1.36e+06    217.00  2.33e+06
   2020m9 |   4531.00  1.24e+06 292441.24  1.29e+06  1.20e+06  1.36e+06    200.00  2.19e+06
  2020m10 |   3977.00  1.25e+06 266874.59  1.29e+06  1.21e+06  1.36e+06    213.00  2.33e+06
----------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total |  44018.00  1.16e+06 349851.87  1.26e+06  1.15e+06  1.34e+06    200.00  2.42e+06
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Updates:

Data was imported on 29 October 2020 (ends at block #654708), not recently but the plot shows time points at which mempool was clear sometimes in October. Whenever the p25 value of daily block size falls back to below 1 MB, mempool has chances to get clearer.

I made a typo in plot title: The period is 01 Oct 2020 - 29 Oct 2020.

All-time and 2020 plots

[VB1001]

              
Today, 12 years ago
Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper

- Fri Oct 31 14:10:00 EDT 2008 Bitcoin A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html
- Here in several languages:
https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-paper