Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

technology adoption always follows a s-curve. the beginning is flat, then it becomes exponential (looks like a hockey stick) and when mass adoption occurs it shoots straight up and only starts flattening when saturated (widely adopted).


when the new tech is money the graph not only shows the adoption of users but also the value of the money.

when rockets are fired up to reach space they need to carry enough energy to overcome earths gravity. they need to acquire escape velocity.  if they don't get over this threshold they could not leave earth.

bitcoin expands in short violent run-ups followed by years of loss of value and consolidation. this circular pattern conditions bitcoin hodlers to feel bad about "not selling at the top" in order to own a lot of cash and furthermore to later buy back more bitcoin, when price reached the bottom of the cycle.

especially when reaching "life changing" or "fuck you" amounts of money. especially when the hodler realizes that he/she could have escaped the rat race with that amount of fiat. since the bear markets are usually multi year, the hodler has plenty of time to develop this regret.

it feels bad to look back to previous all-time highs and punching the numbers in a calculator and figuring out how many btc one could have bought if and only if...      but be aware that there is another feeling that is even worse: having sold to early. remember all the posts in this forum where folks argued about how rational it was to take profits and sell btc for $20. or $200 or $2000

during one of the next giant run-ups bitcoin will reach escape velocity. which means the old game of multiyear bears will not occur anymore. bitcoin will enter the steep upward phase of the s-curve.

don't be a multiyear hardened btc hodler that finally learned how to sell at an anticipated local top only to see the price never coming back. develop a strategy to avoid this worst possible outcome: a bitcoin hodler with zero bitcoin in that moment of history when bitcoin is winning. with strategy I don't mean some weird trading strategy. trading btc is a losing game for 99% of players.


the only way to make sure you always have some bitcoin is to always keep some/most bitcoin.


my own strategy is very simple: when bitcoin reaches escape velocity I want to still own at least 50% of my stash. in my mind half my stash is reserved for my descendants. they are in Uber-cold storage. I will never touch them. I will never punch them in any calculator to figure out momentary fiat value.

with the other half I may or may not try to play the "sell at top" game. not convinced yet since all I would get for my precious btc is lots of melting dirty fiat. problem is that this is the only way ever for me to acquire more btc.  maybe I should only play that game with a quarter of my stash.

what is your plan?




edited

[FullNode]

what is your plan?

I have little btc so I allocate a monthly amount to increase my stash no matter how high or low the price is

[JSRAW]

[d_eddie]

I have a hunch that before year's end I'm gonna be able to change my hat. It's getting stuffy

[soullyG]

what is your plan?

Hodl as much as possible, for as long as I can. Never stop dumping fiat to stack sats. Only sell BTC if it's 110% necessary.

[lightfoot]

Not expecting a civil war, worst case a small insurrection. Most likely is a few boring riots.

[nutildah]

Well a lot of people are uppity, that's for sure.

The only thing that comes close to this is last time around - before that maybe Bush v Gore - in terms of animosity I've witnessed toward the other side. Covid certainly plays right into the divide, as does the racial thingamajig, whatever you want to call it.

People will be up-fucking-set in general if Trump wins, but they'll have to learn how to respect democracy.

[soullyG]

I have a hunch that before year's end I'm gonna be able to change my hat. It's getting stuffy

Hopefully be able to add another 0 (sorry, moon) to the end soon

[Syke]

Biden has 11 million Twitter followers, Trump 89
Maybe Democracy works in some mysterious ways and Twitter followers/likes have no meaning what so ever.

He got all of those followers *after* becoming POTUS, because he uses only his personal account to do all his official business. Biden was a VP. Pence is a VP. Pence has 5 million followers. Biden wins.

Obama was POTUS. Obama has 124 million followers. Obama wins.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $13,530

[El duderino_]

[nutildah]

Here's how to play bitcoin if Biden wins.

1. Stock market will probably drop a bit.
2. Corn will drop alongside it; to what extent is anyone's guess.
3. Corn price starts to rebound.
4. Buy corn.
5. Profit.

The changing of leadership usually has a short-term negative reaction on the markets, historically speaking, and has nothing to do with the underlying trend of whatever it is we are talking about; in this case, corn.

One thing is it may take a while for the results to be known, up to a week or even a month. So timing your buy based on what appears to be an inevitable dip may prove tricky.

[vapourminer]

a long time ago, when Nixon stepped down, my father (military) turned and told me "you are witnessing democracy at work, and a peaceful transition of power. no bullets, no army" or something along those lines. at the time i was like "ok, cool."

guess i took for granted how immutable that seemed.

[El duderino_]

Or or .....

BTC decouples from election news 

[heslo]

LMAO these shitcoiners and their bullshit ideas. Meanwhile bcrash hits a new low against the King... 0.017

[600watt]

a long time ago, when Nixon stepped down, my father (military) turned and told me "you are witnessing democracy at work, and a peaceful transition of power. no bullets, no army" or something along those lines. at the time i was like "ok, cool."

guess i took for granted how immutable that seemed.

i liked that trump did not start a war and that he wasn't shy to point out stuff that is true. but to destroy the democratic system that brought him to power by declaring he will not accept if he loses is the worst thing a politician can do.
an elected leader who puts the axe on the roots of the democracy that allowed him to become president is acting criminal imho.

the last 4 years showed me that a U.S. president has too much executive power. a few more rouge leaders like him and the U.S. is either a kingdom or a dicatorship.

i dislike biden for being this tough law-and-order drug warrior for literally decades. I wonder how much hardship his policies created amongst stoners. how many years people ended up in prison for some weed.

but trump jeopardizes the democracy. which was a bright star to follow other nations.

let's see...

[philipma1957]

what is your plan?

I have little btc so I allocate a monthly amount to increase my stash no matter how high or low the price is

I sell some and I keep some.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Wrong!

Pac coin will have higher price (against bitcoin) than any other token including BSV 🤪

[philipma1957]

a long time ago, when Nixon stepped down, my father (military) turned and told me "you are witnessing democracy at work, and a peaceful transition of power. no bullets, no army" or something along those lines. at the time i was like "ok, cool."

guess i took for granted how immutable that seemed.

i liked that trump did not start a war and that he wasn't shy to point out stuff that is true. but to destroy the democratic system that brought him to power by declaring he will not accept if he loses is the worst thing a politician can do.
an elected leader who puts the axe on the roots of the democracy that allowed him to become president is acting criminal imho.

the last 4 years showed me that a U.S. president has too much executive power. a few more rouge leaders like him and the U.S. is either a kingdom or a dicatorship.

i dislike biden for being this tough law-and-order drug warrior for literally decades. I wonder how much hardship his policies created amongst stoners. how many years people ended up in prison for some weed.

but trump jeopardizes the democracy. which was a bright star to follow other nations.

let's see...

They both suck.  But as long as we don't riot out and collapse into a fucking mess it really does not matter who wins.

Two old white guys with ideas fostered from the 1950's are not really good for the USA.

One born with a silver spoon in his mouth or should I say gold.
The  other born with out much coin.

[600watt]

Wrong!

Pac coin will have higher price (against bitcoin) than any other token including BSV 🤪

u serious? a fucking shitcoin?