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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26366942 times)
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November 01, 2020, 07:20:47 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

That is what you get storing your customers’ addresses, email and phone numbers: https://twitter.com/ledger/status/1318294484208279556?

Trezor Tech Month: Shop-wide Discounts all November
10% discount code is TECHMONTH2020
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November 01, 2020, 07:24:09 AM
Last edit: November 02, 2020, 11:22:06 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

[edited out]

Cool, but maybe consider a philosophy of keeping bitcoin until bitcoin 'eats the world', then simpy use it.

You come off as trolling with that question.

I doubt that there are too many of us who actually believe in an imminency that BTC becoming the world reserve currency, or whatever other achievements would need to be reached in order to meet "eats the world" status.  That's just pie in the sky, and you seem to be way the fuck more conservative than me in terms of the imminency of such a status so I don't know why you would suggest that as any kind of reasonable approach to BTC - especially for someone like me who has already proclaimed that I am approaching such a status that I would likely want to liquidate more of my BTC stash rather than to hold it or to continue to accumulate it.

Sure, if someone has some kind of longer time frame (maybe someone in their 20s or 30s) then maybe the ongoing accumulation of BTC might cause them to engage in tactics of never selling BTC so they could more reasonably entertain speculation that by the time that they are ready to start liquidating that bitcoin may have reached such world reserve (eat the world) status - but even something like that would likely be at least 20 years into the future and maybe more realistically 50 years - even though at the same time we can also appreciate that the "suddenly" part of "gradually then suddenly" could end up playing out in a sooner surprise timeframe - of 5 or 10 years.... but nonetheless, still would be ridiculous to be banking on some kind of scenario that might not happen rather than a scenarios that are more likely...

Do you even understand the use of the 208 week moving average as a thought about planning bitcoin cashing out / valuation strategies.  It is conservative and it is based on what is and being able to act upon "what is" rather than "what might be."   Yeah, I talk about what might happen in bitcoin, but my financials have ongoingly been tied to where I am at rather than pie in the sky expectations... that is another reason that my previous hopiums (when I first got into bitcoin in 2013 and thereafter) about BTC price performance was a kind of hopium that bitcoin would be able to at least equal the performance of my traditional investments and average 6% per year of price appreciation.. and any BTC price performance that goes beyond averaging 6% per year would be viewed as icing on the cake (I still have some of that thinking in my head, even though I believe that I can kind of bank on higher floors because those price moves have already happened in BTC** which thereby allowed me to move over to the 208-week moving average in terms of thinking about my own budgeting, etc etc etc.)

Edited earlier post to add in this note:

** By the way, even if I were to estimate my cost per BTC in a very generous way to have been in the $1,000 per BTC price territory, currently my BTC price performance is way beyond those minimum expectations of 6% per year, which through my quick calculation would have current put BTC prices at about  $1,504 per BTC... So, yeah, I have quite a cushion, and at current BTC prices, my average per year is currently a bit above 45% per year.  So, really there is quite a cushion See two comparisons, below:

              6%/yr     45%/yr
2013      $1,000      $1,000
2014      $1,060      $1,450
2015      $1,124      $2,103
2016      $1,191      $3,049
2017      $1,262      $4,421
2018      $1,338      $6,410
2019      $1,419      $9,294
2020      $1,504      $13,476

I am NOT proclaiming that I can even expect continued returns of 45% per year (that might be unrealistic to expect such, even though it is possible for such a thing to happen), and my investment could revert to much lower average returns per year levels, including averaging something like 6% here on out, and I have have NO problema with that kind of reduced performance playing out.. especially since I already am experiencing a large profit cushion from my original BTC performance expectations.  


So, again, why?  Why change over into some kind of nonsense pie in the sky speculation when it is absolutely not necessary for me to already largely be in a kind of "fuck you" status without having to incorporate such pie in the sky framings (bitcoin reserve currency status) that may or may not happen in my lifetime?

Selling btc for fiat seems suboptimal right now.

I have been sticking with my system of selling somewhere under 1% of the value of my BTC stash for every 10% BTC price rise (and I had done a recent calculation that shows it to be even smaller than that), but it is already a system that I am comfortable with.. been doing since $250.. and it does not seem to be any kind of problem... so why fix it if it is not broken?  You want me to stop doing all of this and wait until $70k or something like that?  For me, it is not necessary.. I can still sell decent amounts of my BTC stash if we reach $70k, if I so choose.. I already have a lot of it projected out.. I have BTC sell orders that currently go up to $36k, and I can easily add more sell orders within incrementalism or lump sum.... and I largely already have projected out those numbers, and either way I am rich as fuck.. and already having trouble spending all of my money.. so not really sure why I need to structure some kind of further delayed gratification or some plan that fits your ideas rather than my own.


My strategy now is to maximize bitcoin holdings, exactly a la Saylor, while paying little attention to the accumulation of anything else (as a final goal).

That's great.. and maybe it will work for you.  I am glad that you are accounting for your own situation, and especially if you are saying that you need a minimum of $6 million to feel comfortable with fuck you status and I am saying that $2 million is good enough.. especially if accounting for 208 week moving average...  .. but either way there are still needs to tailor whatever approach to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan, tweak and reallocate from time to time as needed including considering whether to trade and how.

Other tools, such as fiat stock gains, altcoin gains (bought always via fiat) are there to increase btc, while your ultimate goal seems to increase fiat holdings (via bitcoin).
Am I wrong?

I am not sure.  How any of us might evaluate would be accounting for a variety of the assets - not only bitcoin, but if we feel that we need $6,666 per month (which is the $2million principle) to feel comfortable or we feel that we need $18k per month (which is the nearly $6 million in principle), we have to look at all of our investments and to se what kinds of cashflow we can generate from those other investments.

Of course, if we only have one kind of asset (or two BTC and dollars), then the calculations are going to be easier, but there still might be other assets and determinations regarding how much cashflow can be generated from various assets.  Let's say, for example, you have a goal of the $6,666 per month, and let's say that you have $500k that is in a 401k.  Depending on your age, you may or may not be eligible to start dipping into such 401k funds, so in that sense you have to generate your income from other assets.  Apartments might generate income, but if you merely own houses or other forms of real estate that you are using in various ways, you might not b generating income from that or maybe if you are generating some income from such properties, you might fold that income back into the property expenses, but overall property would not be a very liquid asset that you would use to figure out your ability to generate cashflow from it.. even if it could be a kind of emergency value that exists out there that could be liquidated in the future, if needed.


...yes, a little bored (and overworked), I concede there.

At least BTC prices are going up.. so that should be able to take away some personal pressures, I would hope, unless you had been too busy betting on down, not adequately preparing for UP, overly anticipating flat or things like that.  

Some of your earlier bearish talk could actually have been indications that you might not have been adequately preparing for UP... but whatever, that's on you, ultimately in terms of what balance any of us may have reached in recent times in terms of both preparing for up and preparing for down at the same time... can definitely be a challenge and a dilemma.  

There had been times that I was running out of cash to buy some of the dips, so there were times in which I felt that I did not have enough cash in my reserves in order to take advantage of down or MOAR down, were it to happen.  Even now, I have something like 97% bitcoin and 3% cash (in the funds that are dedicated to BTC).. which, to me, seems to be a bit overly-weighted in BTC.. so I don't have any personal reservations to skim off some additional cash from my BTC here and there along the way.. because on an ongoing basis - even since 2015, I have largely been over invested in BTC.. but I have systems in place in which I have made myself comfortable to deal with whichever way the BTC price happens to go (seemingly UP.. and that's certainly fine with me, too).

Edited above to add price performance analysis note:
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November 01, 2020, 07:38:05 AM

Damn we were so close for ATH monthly close last night. Whatever, second place for highest monthly close is also not bad  Cool.

I think we are very close to a huge step forward for crypto market.
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November 01, 2020, 08:02:33 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

Dedicated to all the bears worldwide:


.


Monsoon miners off,
highland price discovery,
fees game theory.


#haiku
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November 01, 2020, 08:08:57 AM

Dedicated to all the bears worldwide:




   When you tack the first half of this chart on the end of the second half,  it causes a warm and fuzzy feeling.  Slightly light headed  Grin
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November 01, 2020, 08:13:02 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)



We close October, Min/10,380 and a Max/14,100 $/BTC.

The Wall Observer thread works like clockwork, every day I am more convinced that we should have our own board or at least that the thread is anchored above.

- Nº1 🏆 in Top 10 Topics (by Replies) 548,786
- Nº1 🏆 in Top 10 Topics (By Views) 23,678,549
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

theymos could you consider any of these requests? Wink Anchoring the thread would be a nice start

www.wohats.com continues to grow, new member, FullNode and
the most visited Hat this month is: BobLawblaw
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November 01, 2020, 08:30:31 AM

[WO stats]
www.wohats.com continues to grow [...] and the most visited Hat this month is: BobLawblaw


Not surprised. It is hard to explain to an outsider, but WO’ers do like their green dildos. Preferably daily.
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November 01, 2020, 09:41:44 AM



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1322690881015697408?s=20

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November 01, 2020, 09:44:31 AM
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Confirmed by math and science.
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November 01, 2020, 09:58:31 AM

Slightly light headed  Grin

Slightly:

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November 01, 2020, 10:15:35 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), JayJuanGee (1), kurious (1), bitebits (1)

In twenty-thirteen,
When Bitcoin was far from green,
A new thread was born.

Bitcoiners could chat,
About pumps, dumps, this and that,
Observing corn price.

It slowly evolved,
Proving order can exist,
With no fucking rules.

A strange place indeed...
Carolinas and Choo-Choos,
Are commonplace here.

Everyone's welcome,
From noobs, to legends, to trolls.
Free love, green dildos.

It's all up to you,
Will you be getting a hat?
Or a rusty pipe?

Many came and went,
But only the best remain,
In Wall Observer!

#7wohaikus
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November 01, 2020, 10:27:29 AM

According to Julio Moreno , if bitcoin stays above $10,000 for 100 days, then it will set its new all-time high.

Tweet: Oct 30


When I see the selling pressure, I still feel that at least bitcoin will remain above $10k. What do you think we are close to a new all time high?


Check selling pressure coingecko
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November 01, 2020, 10:56:24 AM

The monsoon miners don't stay off. They get shipped to southern Mongolia where the elec is cheaper in the off season. Doesn't take long, it's only a thousand miles up the road. Normal service will be resumed presently.
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November 01, 2020, 11:10:12 AM

The monsoon miners don't stay off. They get shipped to southern Mongolia where the elec is cheaper in the off season. Doesn't take long, it's only a thousand miles up the road. Normal service will be resumed presently.

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November 01, 2020, 11:22:29 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

The rest will have to wait till the pm. Off to last lunch before Lockdown 2: the pathetically unnecessary sequel to the useless first film.
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November 01, 2020, 11:25:11 AM

I guess those uppity small businessmen gotta be milked somehow.
*dekulakisation intensifies*

oh and the poor. always forget about them
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November 01, 2020, 11:26:41 AM
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Looking UP we might be running out of time soontm before ATH:


https://twitter.com/travis_kling/status/1322686421828661249
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November 01, 2020, 11:41:36 AM

The rest will have to wait till the pm. Off to last lunch before Lockdown 2: the pathetically unnecessary sequel to the useless first film.

Me too, parked up waiting for the pub to open  Cool
I’m going to go for a turkey Sunday roast dinner, I think. Feeling quite sad about this impending lockdown, not really sure why. Hoping bitcoin keeps PAMPING as we see in the New Year.

Enjoy v8.
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November 01, 2020, 11:48:44 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

I was just listening to an old Jameroquai song and wow the lyrics pretty much call out covid.

I think he may be mamma ganouche



Whoa, it's so insane
To synthesize another strain
There's something in these
Futures that we have to be told
Futures made of virtual insanity now
Always seem to, be governed by this love we have
For useless, twisting, our new technology
Oh, now there is no sound for we all live underground
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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November 01, 2020, 12:19:05 PM
Last edit: November 01, 2020, 12:30:15 PM by vapourminer

Let's hope this is only the start of things to come. Tell ya what lads, I see people here talking of retirement and the like and while I might not be whales like some of you (I haven't done too badly) I don't begrudge you at all. Happy for every single one of you because I know one day and one day soon I'll get there too.

Wouldn't a more important question be about whether we are able to retire earlier than what we would have otherwise?

this is the question that matters.
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